Swizzle

This is the reality and perspective of a seasoned pilot and based in experiential-reality, what you're arguing against is leaders who are making an on-paper argument for new toys, technology refresh, and better performance (MX & Ops). How leaders from desks perceive and justify things is and will always be slightly, or majorly, disconnected from reality (because Execs/Aides dont fly as long or far as a turkey). However Execs/Aides can be good people...they just have a different admin-fight

I predict in three or four years O5 promotions rates will be extremely high, and many passed-over O4s will get picked up. This because O4 rates were effectively like 99% with most of the passed over O3s, like ~300, promoted (one 8 yrs APZ I personally know). "Second string" or APZ personnel are being called up and largely depleted meaning little to no competition to IPZ/APZ O5 in the future, just like O4 for next ~5 years, and passed over people will be picked up to fill the manning bathtub the exodus created. Put another way, the "bubble" will rise in this manning system. VRRAD and VPLAD aren't enough to normalize the manning pyramid again. They cut too deep and scared away too many. If this macro trend continues, the exodus that is, O5 will be 100% "opportunity" around 2022 *all #'s grossly mentally calculated Cheers, up or out! Or IN because, regretfully (tongue in cheek), we need you!!

Everyone get scared of flying, get a doctors note, SATO books and you ride Amtrak as a family until you can board the Queen Elizabeth 2 with throwback cast member Lidnsay Lohan, then enjoy the slow boat ride. Bring luxury suit, party.

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1738529/goldfein-gets-up-close-view-of-new-t-x-trainer/ ...."convinced Goldfein that the plane has the potential to deliver what future pilots and warfighters need."

Two categories got a bump in tiers which equated to max $ per NDAA and more flexible length options. Renewal and "late-taker" options are flexing with tier. Lower tier # = more $ and more flexibility. $0.02...as always this policy is years lagging the trend/chasing the trend and crawling, not even taking baby-steps. It won't be enough, will have to change [i.e. increase in value] again this year (value increases can be options-based like timing front/back/choice or $ qty)

USAF (# 15/17) is better than TSA (DHS # 17/17)...barely... https://bestplacestowork.org/rankings/overall/large It's science...must be true, and it's a strat!!!...the USAF understands those. This one is bottom third, aka monitor for Command!! https://bestplacestowork.org/rankings/detail/AF00

At Maxwell this year there was a gal picked 3 days before class started. She PCA'd across the street.

I know a guy. He didn't hear anything his alternate year; got picked up next year as primary. No CFM contact, unless it's to load a RIP offering a school spot. Maybe the CFM is your bro gouges you up', probably not. CFMs exists to support needs of the AF, Senior leaders create that need. He did learn a DEDB Master OOM exists, but will never be disclosed. It ranks DEDB candidates, selects and alternates. It's used when an alternate is activated. Sometimes alternates are activated by rank order, other times skipping order until a prerequisite of slot is achieved. Sometimes political MAJCOM shenanigans fight and achieve skipping the next qualified alternate, perhaps that's after cold-calling an alternate to determine their desire or even maybe for (or to manufacture) an operational deferment. All kinds of politically inspired admin games are played. Just wait, be patient, realize Senior Leadership (DT & WG/CC) will be watching and call upon you if they desire.

The 2005 YG Lt Col IPZ promotion rate that should be expected can be quickly, reasonably estimated. NOTE: one massive wildcard lately developing complicates precise calculations -- FGO continuation. Each year the USAF needs to promote ~1,000 to O5 IPZ to feed the sausage maker. We haven't significantly restructured the force through O5 corps growth so only attrition needs calculating, but wait, other subtle variables are in play too. The USAF is never so clear cut. Subtract a modest W.A.G. of six dozen for BTZ from prior years. Because of retention of FGOs through continuation and the fact that DOPMA limits certain Officer Corps ranks size, the promotion rate could actually go down!! I dont know of a way to calculate quantity of continuation-continued Officers (maybe through AvB take rates of high YAS Officers...dang Nav bonus takers probably hurting 05's O5 chances! Who ate my lunch...Nav!? I digress... Recently there have been about ~1,400 IPZ eligibles yearly. But the 2005 YG should be less than ~1400. That is because of Force Shaping shwacking the 2005 YG (hit with RIF). Note for future use: even more deeply shwacked younger than 2005 YGs (hit by RIF, VSP, TERA for prior Es, etc)...aka 100% promo to Major "competitors"

Being here myself since 2007...I see you just don't understand. May you be enlightened. There is always a point to BaseOps forums, it's why they exist. It's also why I check them often; Fresh perspective. (Thank you all over these years). May BaseOps live past my years... Hopefully soon we should we praise you for... Please understand:

Newbie Investigating Officer: “Do boats like this sink very often?” Crusty ole' Skipper: “No, usually it’s only once.”

Link? I don't see it posted on www.afpc.af.mil Or do you mean on RAW?

I'll read it that way to, but feel it'll soon change to favor Uncle Sugar. Side note: wonder if they could force in someone whose DIEMS wasn't initially eligible to enroll in the first place who had a break in service!? Can a DIEMS be reset?

Unless you read the fine, Gov't accountant, print! "Members who have a DIEMS of December 31, 2017 or earlier are generally NOT subject to the automatic enrollment and reenrollment provisions of Public Law 114-92, the National Defense Authorization Act of 2016 even if they elect (opt in) to be covered by BRS. However, when an opt-in member separates and then reenters service, that member will be automatically enrolled." There goes a favorable COA, poof gone....

Seconded, aye

Some porches have posted take rates on Portal slides...ouch. Haven't seen take rates on RAW all year...hmmm. Depressingly, NDAA FY19 locked in max AVB of $35K by just stating:overwrite 2018 with 2019 in regards to bonus pays authorization...also ouch. 333(i) of title 37, United States Code, is amended by striking ‘‘December 31, 2018’’ and inserting ‘‘December 31, 2019’’. (d) AUTHORITIES RELATING TO TITLE 37 CONSOLIDATED SPECIALPAY, INCENTIVE PAY, AND BONUS AUTHORITIES.—The following sec-tions of title 37, United States Code, are amended by striking ‘‘December 31, 2018’’ and inserting ‘‘December 31, 2019’ But apparently 365s will be 180s now! And flight pay is up! 😐 ....and the ticker trends yet again downward (literally there are less of us, past 2k now by my calculations, even Navs are down, but wait ABM & RPA increased!)

Humidity does decrease air density, perhaps it's a problem somewhere there or about that in the T-6 OBOGS

Just like a personal credit card, every transaction is coded behind the scenes by Citibank and paired/labelled to a category (ex. Dining, fine dining, entertainment, club, ___-merchandise). Ever seen a USAA spending breakdown? Automatically Citibank flags certain codes (certain establishments) and categories and can provide the report to Finance at some level for manual screening. From there...who knows and who knows IF it gets screened/caught. I know for sure certain establishment's vendor codes throw a HUGE visible red flag, categories not so much accuracy. Some savvy business aren't labelled by credit card companies by what they actually do!

Read the SECAF MOI to the promotion board on MyPers... Being an AFPAK hand doesn't mean automatic BPZ promotion, maybe, supposedly, just kinda it means take it into consideration.

Full tilt GTA comes to life!! But seriously, violent video games caused him to do it (/S)

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/1595836/innovative-1st-rs-training-provides-rq-4-student-pilots-valuable-flying-experie/ Big Blue gives out innovation $, in turn RPA drivers buy in-cockpit flight time...who knew they'd want to do such a thing, and gasp that's its having benefits back to Big Blue. Why wasn't this done earlier? Like 10 years ago? Fund and approve more Aeroclubs! Especially near RPA drivers!

“We can’t afford to lose our treasure [due to aircraft mishaps], and our treasure is our Airmen, first, and our aircraft and weapons systems our nation relies upon.” - Gen David Goldfein, Chief of Staff, US Air Force A bit reminiscent of a famous Lord of the Rings quote's meaning....

Me either...but the promotion rates say it all, especially the APZ rate this O4 board