Maybe...although as you say, the good guys are getting out at their commitment points anyway. If anyone doesn't think the 500ish people who applied for VSP and were denied are even more solidified in their desire to punch on their ADSC date, they are sorely mistaken. Further, if the goal was "keep the good people in, throw the terrible ones out", why offer a VSP at all? I thought it was all about the total numbers anyway. At least, that's what SECAF put out there.
If anyone thinks that denying VSP for those guys is going to keep them in the service past their ADSC, you're sorely mistaken. They'll be real lucky not to get thrown out in a couple years as passed-over captains who couldn't get an in-residence SOS slot or another upgrade because they aren't "team-players"...remember how pilots who didn't sign on for the pilot bonus and the additional ADSC were treated in the not-too-distant past? How much worse will it be for someone who actively TRIED to get out and failed? Congratulations, you just made permanent snacko, but at least the squadron's manning number look good. Oh well, someone had to soak up that ALO bill, right?
Disclaimer: I didn't put in for VSP...but I also didn't spend more than about an hour on my RRF form either.