waveshaper

Good info. There are some tidbits of info contained in this analysis that I never really considered. I'm sure the Chinese are factoring this stuff into what decisions they will make based on who spanks who first, etc. The Tidbits (fuzzy math on my part); This info doesn't include larger rockets system/other weapons systems/special forces/infantry, etc that will also be causing a butt load of casualties in Seoul and elsewhere. - 70% of foreigners in Seoul are PRC citizens (216,532 PRC citizens live in Seoul). There are a total of 780,000 PRC citizen in South Korea. North Korea only has an estimated population of 10,000 PRC citizens and most are located in Pyongyang or the area near the Chinese border. -- 170mm/240mm surprise salvo on Seoul (day one) will kill 29,661 civilians which includes 605 PRC citizen. The casualty rate for PRC citizens living in Seoul is 2.039% of those killed (note; the vast majority of PRC citizens living in Seoul are located "North" of the Han river). -- Conventional Artillery Attack on Seoul (day one) will kill 64,000 people which would include 1,304 PRC citizens (based on a 2.039% casualty rate). -- Total PRC citizen killed in Seoul on day one = 1,909.

100,000 sounds about right for civilian casualties but the total casualty count was much higher; The Battle of Berlin is #2 on the list of bloodiest battles of WWII ( Battle of Berlin, 16 April–2 May 1945: 1,298,745 casualties). https://www.militaryeducation.org/10-bloodiest-battles-of-world-war-ii/ Also, don't forget that the US, Brits, and USSR bombed the crap out of Berlin, which resulted in this; In 1943, the Germans decided to start the evacuation of non-essential people from Berlin. By 1944 1.2 million people, 790,000 of them women and children, about a quarter of the city's population, had been evacuated to rural areas. On the flip side, in 1945 the city filled back up again with refugees fleeing the USSR advance pushing west.

^Clueless fools^ IMHO, if we have a full blown war on the Korean peninsula again we are looking at 1 million plus casualties in the first 30 days alone and this is without "Nukes". This would be like Iwo Jima X 10,000. Both sides have been digging in and getting ready for this showdown since the 1950's. - When the Korean War started there were 150,000 North Korean Troops and 100,000 South Korean Troops. Note; Peak strength for North Korean forces (mostly Chinese troops) reached 1,600,000 late in the war and the peak strength of US/Korean/other friendly forces eventually reached 900,000 troops. - Casualties during the Korean War; Troop Casualties on our side = 777,000 plus. Troop casualties on their side = 1,540,000. Civilian Casualties from both sides = 2,500,000. Total casualties for all sides = over 4,800,000 Killed/Wounded/Missing. - Today North Korea has 1,190,000 Active Duty troops and 5,889,000 Reserve forces for a total of over 7,000,000 troops ready to go on short notice (48 hours max). South Korea has 625,000 active duty troops and 3,100,000 Reserve forces for a total of over 3,700,000 troops ready to go on short notice (48 hours max). After all this death/destruction we all took a timeout in 1953, basically along the same lines where it all started in 1950 and 64 years later it's still a stalemate. Note; I'm somewhat familiar with the military situation in Korea (it's kind of a family tradition). My dad did three tours in Korea (Oct 1950 thru 1954/Infantry) I did three tours in Korea, and my brother did two tours in Korea. - Today they also have way more then enough weapon systems with reach/mines/subs etc to cause lots of death/damage/destruction on land and much further offshore then they did during the Korean War. During the Korean War the Norks basically had no Navy but these 5th rate pipsqueaks still managed to sink or damage 100 ships belonging to "The Worlds Greatest Navy". Never underestimate your enemy.

Some official entity needs to characterize the rhetoric being spouted by both NK and the USA into something that simple minded folks like "me" can understand and prepare for. Maybe the JCS or the US Unified/Specified Combatant Commands can characterize these official statements from least severe to most catastrophic. Also, the rumor is that the folks in Guam are being advised to start practicing "Covfefe" drills (Covfefe = new code word for "Duck and Cover" drills). I recommend starting Covfefe drills NLT the Double Dog Dare phase (DEFCON 3). Something like this might work for this particular AO (USPACOM); - DEFCON 5 = "Simple/Basic Dare". - DEFCON 4 = "Double Dare". - DEFCON 3 = "Double Dog Dare". - DEFCON 2 = "Triple Dare". - DEFCON 1 = "Triple Dog Dare". This is the coup de gras of all dares and means Nuclear War is imminent.

^IMHO, this might be a bridge to far^. We could possibly do something like in NATO, where we "Share" US Nukes with a few non-nuclear NATO countries. I'm not sure what the ramifications would be if we did something like this with SK and Japan. I'm sure it would rattle the cages of the other big boys in that AO and the Norks. Short example of how this works in NATO; - Under the NATO umbrella the US has a Nuclear Sharing Agreement with Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy, and Turkey (hopefully we have removed the nukes from Turkey by now). As part of this nuclear sharing arrangement, the participating countries carry out consultations and take common decisions on nuclear weapons policy, maintain technical equipment required for the use of nuclear weapons (including warplanes capable of delivering them), and store nuclear weapons on their territory. In peacetime, the nuclear weapons stored in these non-nuclear countries are guarded by USAF personnel; the Permissive Action Link codes required for arming them remain under American control. In case of war, the weapons are to be mounted on the participating countries' warplanes and then; "it's the end of the world as we know it". - Another way to send a serious "symbolic" message to North Korea would be for the USAF to start staging/launching our long range, nuclear capable bombers (B-2/B-52), from "Tinian Airfield" . We will probably need to add a couple thousand feet to the runway before we start launching these saber rattling/show of force missions from this airfield. Tinian would become "once again" the home of the "509th" Expeditionary Bomb Squadron/Group/Wing. (Sarcasm, I think).

Relax, the only thing getting Nuked by the President are the transgender folks and probably a few flag officers.

It might be worth "attempting" to start a new topic on these evolving DoD "T" policies/implications.

I know this transgender stuff is relatively new in the military. I have a few questions about transgender and PRP positions. - Is there any data that shows how many transgender folks are holding PRP positions, particularly critical PRP positions? - Is there any established guidance on how Commanders (PRP certifying officials) and medical (particularly mental health folks) handle the PRP certification process for individuals that initiates/request a gender transition? - Should Commanders of transgender PRP certified individuals temporarily decertify (immediately) these folks based on the Presidents (CiC) tweet on this subject or should Commanders wait for further guidance before initiating the PRP decertification process?

USMC Press Release (July / 11 / 2017); https://www.marines.mil/News/Press-Releases/Press-Release-Display/Article/1242769/marine-corps-aircraft-crashes-killing-16/

The climatic lab seems to be ground zero for this explosion and fire. I'm not sure if any aircraft were in the barn at the time of this explosion/fire? No casualty reports at this point. https://weartv.com/news/local/fire-at-eglin-air-force-base

Does the US Navy count as "Ground Troops"? The 1972 Battle of Dong Hoi. One MiG-17F scored a direct hit on the destroyer USS Higbee with a BETAB-250 (250 kg/551 lb) bomb, after failing to hit its target twice on two previous attack runs. The explosion destroyed the aft 5-inch (127 mm) gun mount. Another MiG-17 simultaneously aimed its bombs at the cruiser USS Oklahoma City but it was a near miss and only caused minor damage to the ships stern. Total US casualties = 4. Also, Turkey has made a few attempts recently to bomb/shell/attack US backed SDF troops (with US forces in close proximity to these attacks) in Syria. It might be time to update Article 5 to cover how NATO will respond when one NATO country attacks forces from another NATO country.

One more to add to the "does this count" list? Five A-37's, flown by a RVNAF defector and some VPAF pilots, bombed/strafed Tan Son Nhut Air Base? On the afternoon of April 28, 1975, Trung (RVNAF defector) led a flight of five A-37 fighter-bombers against Tan Son Nhut Air Base, which temporarily stopped U.S. and South Vietnamese evacuation efforts. Luckily only 3 AC-119s and several C-47s were destroyed. Also, defector Trung preferred to use the F-5 for Presidential Palace bombing missions.

Back in the good ole days (30/40 years ago) these type things would've been handled by my unit bar/kangaroo court (all enlisted/no females). Charges would've been levied and you would've had a chance to plead your case before being judged/convicted/fined or cleared of all charges. Examples; - Enlisted banging enlisted: Back in my day this was frowned upon (at least in my AFSC) and you would've been convicted and fined 5 to 10 rounds of cheer. - Enlisted banging officer: If you were charged with this crime you would not be convicted "ever". Whoever brought these charges against you for this crime would've been convicted for being a clueless dumb ass and fined at least 10 rounds of cheer and placed on standby (No Drinking) for a minimum of two weeks.

F-15E Shoots Down Another Armed Drone in Syria; "The armed pro-regime Shaheed-129 [unmanned aerial vehicle] was shot down by a U.S. F-15E Strike Eagle at approximately 12:30 a.m. after it displayed hostile intent and advanced on Coalition forces," the command said in a release. Officials said coalition forces were patrolling an established combat outpost to the northeast of At Tanf, where they're training and advising partner ground forces in the fight against ISIS. https://www.military.com/daily-news/2017/06/20/f-15e-shoots-down-another-armed-drone-in-syria.html

"Turkey to fast-track draft bill approving troop deployment in Qatar (7 June):" Hopefully these 3,000 Turks wont be bedding down on Al-Udeid. https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/07/turkey-to-fast-track-draft-bill-approving-troop-deployment-in-qatar-officials.html Additional info; "Revealed: Secret details of Turkey's new military pact with Qatar;" https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-qatar-military-agreement-940298365

Watergate Special Prosecutor Cox? - ROE's; Investigate/prosecute all offenses arising out of the 1972 election involving the president, the White House staff, presidential appointments, etc. It was not limited to Watergate. The assumption of responsibility for a case was left to the discretion of the Special Prosecutor. - Results/final tally; The indictment of 69 people, with trials or pleas resulting in 48 being found guilty, many of whom were Nixon’s top administration officials. The grand jury also named Nixon an unindicted conspirator. This indictment marked the first time in U.S. history that a president was so named. President Ford gave Nixon a pardon but everyone else was left to fend for themselves.

I think you're right; A Special Council is basically an Independent Investigator/Prosecutor (I could be wrong/any lawyers on this site?). I'm sure in the next year or two we will all be receiving a nauseatingly detailed education on the powers of a Special Council. Excerpt; - The jurisdiction of a Special Counsel shall be established by the Attorney General. The Special Counsel will be provided with a specific factual statement of the matter to be investigated. The jurisdiction of a Special Counsel shall also include the authority to investigate and prosecute federal crimes. This includes crimes committed in the course of, and with intent to interfere with, the Special Counsel's investigation, such as; perjury, obstruction of justice, destruction of evidence, and intimidation of witnesses; and to conduct appeals arising out of the matter being investigated and/or prosecuted. - The terms "special prosecutor", "independent counsel" and "special counsel" have the same fundamental meaning, and their use (at least at the federal level in the U.S.) is generally differentiated by the time period to which they are being applied. The term "special prosecutor" was used throughout the Watergate era, but was replaced by the less confrontational "independent counsel" in the 1983 reauthorization of the Ethics in Government Act. Those appointed under that act after 1983 are generally referred to as independent counsels. Since the independent counsel law expired in 1999, the term "SPECIAL COUNSEL" has generally been used. This is the term used in the current U.S. government regulations concerning the appointment of special counsels. While the term special prosecutor is sometimes used in historical discussions of all such figures before 1983, the term special counsel appears to have been frequently used as well, including, for example, in contemporary newspaper accounts describing the first presidentially appointed special counsel in 1875.

This is nothing new and not the first time a Russian Ambassador has seen the "Big Board".

The "F" Word; There are only 11 times in history where the "F" word has been considered acceptable for use. They are as follows: 11. "What the @#$% do you mean, we are sinking?" -- Capt. E.J. Smith of RMS Titanic, 1912 10. "What the @#$% was that?" -- Mayor Of Hiroshima, 1945 9. "Where did all those @#$%ing Indians come from?" -- George Custer, 1877 8. "Any @#$%ing idiot could understand that." -- Albert Einstein, 1938 7. "It does so @#$%ing look like her!" -- Picasso, 1926 6. "How the @#$% did you work that out?" -- Pythagoras, 126 BC 5. "You want WHAT on the @#$%ing ceiling?" -- Michelangelo, 1566 4. "Where the @#$% are we?" -- Amelia Earhart, 1937 3. "Scattered @#$%ing showers, my ***!" -- Noah, 4314 BC 2. "Aw c'mon Monica. Who the @#$% is going to find out?" -- Bill Clinton, 1998 1. "There is no @#$%ing way Trump will ever become President" -- HilaryClinton 2016

We are slow learners compared to the USSR. - 5 Years 3 months into the Soviet - Afghan War; When Mikhail Gorbachev became Soviet leader in March 1985 he called Afghanistan “our bleeding wound.” He declared that ending the war was his top priority. - 6 Years 4 months into the Soviet - Afghan War; Mr. Gorbachev complained in the spring of 1986, according to Politburo minutes. “We have been fighting there for six years. If we don’t start changing our approach we’ll be there another 20 or 30 years. - 9 years, 1 month, 3 weeks and 1 day into the Soviet - Afghan War; By February 15, 1989 the Soviets had completely withdrawn from Afghanistan.

Hopefully President Trumps NSC team (State Department/Intel Community/Sec Def/ and "Generals") read the tea leaves/play their cards better then Truman's bumbling NSC crew did back in 1950. Maybe China will let the US/ROK wrap-up that slightly delayed, Korean War ending, grand finale/cake walk to the Yalu push A.K.A. "Home-by-Christmas Offensive" that General Walker of the Eighth Army started at 10 a.m. on November 24, 1950. Better late then never. :<)

We chatted for about five minutes (they spoke decent English) and they identified themselves as North Korean businessmen. They were very interested in Americans (we were in uniform). They also wanted to know if we had ever been to South Korea but I said no (even though by 1991 I had already completed 3 tours in the ROK). We did our best to end the conversation pronto and skedaddled. Note; This was on the military side of Tabuk Airfield A.K.A King Faisal Air Base (deployed location of the 58 Fighter Squadron/Brit GR-1's/and other folks). We mentioned this encounter to the boss (Base Commander) but nothing earthshattering happen that I'm aware of.

Me and a couple of my teammates "once" crossed paths with two (adult male) North Koreans. It was late Feb 1991 in the same AO and was a very WTF/awkward - moment/situation.

Sounds like another epic NK Ballistic Missile failure. What's the Vegas over-under on when they nuke themselves?

That's why we have things like the GBU-57A/B (MOP) and B-2 Bombers.