General Chang

The problem is the right mix, if AF implements- offer the retirement, too few people take it, then what? Too many people take it, you limit the program, then AF has REALLY pissed people off, a la VSP several years ago, and morale goes into the crapper. Addict, I think you're on to something here. The problem is we're only a couple of years past the ten-year ADSC bonus classes; we don't have enough data points to plot trends. I suspect this may be as good an answer as any, IF there is no mass exodus of younger guys at the ADSC, which is what I have been stating. However, if I am wrong and many of you are right, moving to the 8-year ADSC could be the death blow to multiple class years of pilots, which is not good. Probably the best way to proceed on this line of thinking is to take ONE class year and alter their ADSCs to 8 years (say, those whose ADSC's are up in FY16; make them FY14, so we have two classes simultaneously coming due). Then, track the take rates for the two classes seperately, and analyze the trends. If too many "former FY16" guys jump ship in FY14, the Air Force knows it has a serious situation on its hands, and it has only sacrificed one class year. Hmmmm.....interesting.....

Rusty, What about that analysis re: the Air Force's concerns do you disagree with? It seems like you are in agreement with the position. Mr. Noonin, Personnelists do understand people, which is why cuts are not happening as they should be. Not sure how long that can hold off, however, with massive sequester cuts looming. 15-18 years will be the sweet spot (as Rusty alluded to, a relatively "cheap" $100K to get out of the contract) to save a quick load of cash. Pilots, do not for one minute think that I nor anyone in the decision-making process do not appreciate your hard work- I am constantly in awe of our aircrew and their sacrifices, and I am proud of every one of you. However, there are frustrations and then there are numbers. I look at the numbers. If something's not working, yes, throw different numbers at the problem and fix it. That doesn't mean you are not appreciated by your fellow servicemen and women.

We have to keep some folks through 20 (hence costing more money) for two primary reasons: 1. We actually need a few O-4/O-5 types between 15-20 years (again, mostly at the staff level, not in the cockpit, ergo we need people to take the bonus now to lock them in) 2. If we start cutting people like we should between 16-18 years in order to save money, BIg Blue feels younger pilots may start to get concerned and worry the Air Force is disingenuous re: the 20 year retirement system. Hence, they could be much more skeptical about the bonus, and take rates would fall. So Big Blue feels it has to be very careful and selective about when we cut officers between 16-18 years (doesn't happen very often). The scenario I outlined was offering early retirement pay vs. just the pay between 16-20 years. You cannot take the 20 year retirement into consideration in that argument, because it is a "sunk cost," unless the third option (Air Force cuts force structure like it needs to between 16-18 years) becomes a legitimate alternative. Honestly, in my opinion, 15-18 year cuts should be on the table for the sake of saving our Air Force. We have to cut cost wherever possible, and senior Majors/junior Lt Cols are costing us a fortune. I agree with "addict" and "56-&-2": it doesn't make sense to let "the glut" retire at 20. It makes no fiscal sense at all. We need to cut. Step 1 should have been to transition everyone's thought process through a "no bonus" year for all but -11F's, then reinact the bonus next year to make the pilots feel special, but that is not what happened- everyone gets the bonus this year yet again (sigh). Had we enacted the "no bonus" plan this year, starting in 2014, Step 2 could have used CONSISTENT force shaping cuts from 15-18 years every year so that officers don't get pissed off due to being "weened onto" the program (of course "eliminated officers" would be pissed the first couple of years, but the bad feelings would taper quickly). Potentially being cut late in one's career would become part of the personnel culture, and as a result, officers would strive for greater excellence in their careers in order to not be "caught" in that bottom 10-20%. If you don't have your record "in order" at 15-18 years, and you get cut, blame only yourself (the pattern will be there- again, after the first few years). When the service gets smaller in the near future, and the money's not there for personnel, and we have to cut high cost officers, where is the best place to cut? 15-18 years. Every time, no questions asked. It's an easy numbers game for the GOs. So, if you're one of those Majors out there who doesn't have his "i's" dotted and "t's" crossed, and you're at the 12-13 year point (hmmm....sounds like this year's bonus eligibles), you probably should reprioritize and get your stuff done (always easier to get it done today than tomorrow, when you have more responsibility, more family obligations, etc). YOU have the power to ensure that YOU don't fall into that bottom 20%. You can call me a tool, a troll, a Pentagon personnel weenie...whatever makes you feel better when your head hits the pillow tonight. I can take it, and I won't react. However, deep down, think about what I've said here. If you fall into the "gray" area and want to retire, you might need to think about reprioritization in order to "publicly declare" your value to the Air Force when the cuts start flying. Just go out, be the best (leader, pilot, officer, all of those), get your stuff done (yes, PME and degree), work your tail off, and you'll be fine. Easy peasy. "The higher, the fewer." - Alexander R. Keep the faith.

Ok, Rusty, I'll bite. The AF drew the line at the 16 year point this year for the bonus, so let's use 16 years for your scenario. Current early retirement rules = lose 3.5% per year early. In this scenario, the Major retiring at 16 years would be awarded 36% of "top 3" pay. Top 3 pay would equal an average of $7000 per month. $7000 x 36% = $2521.26/month x 12 months = $30,255.12/year Average lifespan around 77. Assume said Major was 40, that's 37 years x $30,255.12 = $1,119,439. Yikes. Inflation not taken into account on either side of the ledger (value of tomorrow's dollars or annual increase in retirement dollars). Using your number ($120K/yr), AF saves $480,000. Even with inflation, doesn't come close, because the $1.12M would have to be adjusted upward as well, albeit by a smaller margin, since the payments are happening over 37 years. Rusty, we've looked at these scenarios, and the taxpayer loses money to keep you from working. They'd kick you out before you hit the 18 year point, but contrary to popular belief, there are Generals at the Pentagon who have a heart and look for other solutions.

BCan, Respectfully, you are in the service and you complain about the honor and tradition of wearing a uniform? You describe it as a "f***ing haze" to wear our service's uniform? Wow. Now I am numb. There is no "mess" here, BCan, and there never was. The ACP has been around for years, and $$$ have always worked to fix the imbalance. Each and every time, it has worked (sometimes it took a couple of years, but it worked none-the-less). There is no quantitative evidence that $$$ will not continue to work in the future. If one year's retention is suboptimal, the A1 will tell the CSAF what needs to happen, and the CSAF will adjust the ACP. Simple as that. No emotion, no thoughts about quality of life. Just money to fix the problem. And it works. Why would the GOs change something that works? I get that many of you have been screwed by this or that, and I understand complaining about it in this forum. All I am trying to relay, as unemotionally as possible, is that the bonus program (and I'm only talking about the bonus here) is ALL about 1's and 0's, nothing more, nothing less. It is not a pat-on-the-back, it is not a thank-you. The only way in which the bonus looks "backwards" is at retention number trends over time. Other than that, the bonus looks forward. Similar to a promotion, in that you are being promoted because of your potential to lead in the next rank, except promotions have a backward-looking "achievement" component. The bonus does not. The bonus does not cry for prior enlisted who do not get it. They did not get it because they will stay through 20 (in fact, guys just hitting their 15th year will stay through 20, to the tune of 90+%, regardless of bonus money, so count your blessings if you're between 15-16 that leadership gave you a payout). The bonus does not weep for late rated people who are ineligible. They are ineligible because they will stay through 20. Give them bonus money? Why, Rusty? So they can stay past 20? The Air Force does not need you past 20. They need you to (mostly) work the staff & (a small few of you) fly the line now, but after 20, you're in the way of the promotion system. There is plenty of talent in the pipeline to become the next "experienced pilot" behind you (actually, they're already the "experienced pilot" behind you, as folks hit EP at the senior Captain rank), and they are much cheaper than you are. Simple math, just like the private sector. Why would the taxpayer give you a crapload money and get zero "net effective return" on that money? Ergo, no bonus for you. And low and behold, Rusty, you are staying, which prooves the CSAF's point. You do not deserve the money. You do not NOT deserve the money. You just don't get the money, because enough of your type are staying (to include you), and then leaving at 20, which is what the Air Force needs, and that's what matters. The bonus does not cheer for fighter pilots who just hit the lottery. There is no conspiracy among fighter pilot GOs at the Pentagon to give "their own" more money. Hogwash. It's ones and zeros. What does a four-star get out of giving an O-4 an extra pile of cash? If he's lucky, nothing. If he's not lucky, he gets an earful from a Congressman or woman that he must sit there and listed to, diligently, out of respect for his or her office. Conspiracy? Please. Get over yourself. The bonus does not give a sigh of relieve for the glut of -11Ms who just hit paydirt. If you read my first post, mobility guys, you should realize why I later said "gratitude" is the word of the day. Besides the upcoming Air Force contraction, staffs will contract over the next few years. Fewer -11Ms will be needed to backfill -11F positions. Additionally, # of squadrons are contracting in some weapons systems (take the Herk world, for example; once transformation is complete, there will not be nearly as many "J" pilots walking around as there were "E" + "H" pilots- fewer squadrons- simple math). UAV mid-career transfers may be topping out in the next few years (speaking strictly on the heavy, non-armed side-of-the-house) as the formal UAV training pipeline continues to ramp up and add capacity. And yes, while C-17 pilots are hurting from the tempo, it is simply not a manning issue. It is a mission issue, and should be addressed in that manner (I'm sure to hear the most response from this comment, but it's true: the C-17 community has the manning to accomplish the mission it should be doing. Maybe things will get better for that community as OEF wraps up next year- I am crossing my fingers). As for the airlines, there is no mass hire, there won't be a mass hire anytime soon (probability very, very high), and if there is, the Air Force will correct with money, and it will be very successful with that tool as it always has been. The bonus DOES project forward, and it sees a future issue in the -11F community. No issues in spec ops, helos, UAVs, and ESPECIALLY mobility as far as the numbers are concerned. I cannot argue emotion or individual frustrations- please feel free to vent, but I cannot have a constructive argument with you, because the numbers don't support your frustrations. I am sorry. The bonus is a tool. Nothing more, nothing less. It is $$$, and money rebalances the Air Force's "personnel portfolio," if you will... Hopefully this response is a little more "even-keeled"--I apologize for calling a pilot a "pansy" in the other forum- I will try to stick to the facts from here forward. Enjoy your weekend. Enjoy your bonuses. Can't wait for Coney Island Hot Dog contest this week!!

I really don't understand the attitude and the foul language guys. The facts are what they are- take the emotion out, make your bonus decision "yea" or "nay" and move on with your life. In the AF or not, work hard and be happy. Simple as that. Have a great weekend. Even you, Danny Noonin.

Of course the AF changes the rules when necessary! This is not chess club! The Air Force has never promised anything to anyone, ever. Your comment about the retirement system is valid and will be studied and changed over the next few years. So it's really not about service for you at all at this point? That's the legacy you want to leave for the young guys reading this thread? How do you mentor your young CGOs in your squadron when you feel this way re: the core values? Sorry I'm old fashioned, but please tell me this isn't about personal financial gain for you for the next 5 years.

Guys, -11F crisis leads to increased bonus contract length. Everyone "thinks" they see this or that within their own little sphere of influence. You do not have the big picture. Lt Gen Jones (the AF/A1) does. Nobody is going to post strength numbers on this website. The simple truth is that the pilot crisis exists in only one AFSC, and the rest of you are lucky they kept the political-hot-potato-bonus around at all. You take issue with my hat-in-hand comment? Just be grateful and sign or don't sign. But stop blaming the Air Force for your generally miserable attitude. Military life is good- look at the retention numbers that are public. RECORD LEVELS. The word of the day today is now "gratitude" everyone.

IP school is ALWAYS worth the investment, even if they move straight into another MWS. IP is much more about the mentality than stick and rudder. It's worth every penny in the scenarios you guys are describing. The 0.5 point "bump" it gives the guy on the promotion board is simply a pleasant byproduct for that officer.

Really desk jockey? You're pissed I didn't coddle him? If you took offense to that post, you pilots don't have the cahones I thought you had. Pilot pansy.

Animal, I haven't read the T.K. book, but I'll put it on my list. My last thought here, but I'll keep monitoring. There are a ton of numbers being dissected daily at the Pentagon. Additionally, those numbers are being examined by your peers; fighter guys, heavy guys, helos, RPA, mx, cyber...EVERYONE is represented. These folks have been in the fight the last 12 years; only recently have most of them entered the staff world. They understand your pain, and they're doing their best to work the mission and the people. Occasionally mistakes happen, but a vast majority of the decisions being made are the right ones for the right reasons. However, keep posting ideas here on all of these topics, because your innovative idea might be seen by an AO and run up the chain to the highest levels. If you're on here just to complain, I can understand some of that, but find time in your day to reflect on why you're unhappy, and if it's institutional rather than personal, come up with solutions, keep posting here, and work it through your chain if able. Re: the bonus, it really is simple: am I willing to continue to serve in uniform for the next x number of years in any position the Air Force throws my way (to include a potential 365- you should always tell your spouse to expect one 365 at some point in your career, and if it doesn't happen, good for you) AND HAVE A GOOD ATTITUDE DOING IT (no matter what "it" is). If the answer is no, you'll be fine- officers are extremely talented--go chase your dreams; a heart felt "thank you" for your service from the bottom of my heart. If the answer is yes, sign the papers, go out there and LEAD! YOU will directly influence whether your airmen have a good day or bad, just through your attitude and leadership. This holds true if you're supervising one or 100- trust me, I've done both. If you see problems, try to fix them. But don't be a "woe is me, my life sucks" obstacle. We have far too many O-4s and O-5s like that now. If you can't do this, please don't sign the bonus. Thank you for your service. Young guys...this is an amazing Air Force with amazing opportunities- dream big, do your primary job to the absolute best of your ability WITH a good attitude, and watch how doors start to open for you. And if you ever end up on the "wrong side of the ledger" on an issue, don't take it personally- the Air Force is doing what it must to stay the best that ever existed. Sit down with your family and make your decisions together, with an eye on the future, not on past wrongs. And, when you decide to leave...thank you for your service. Keep the faith.

Maul, Hate to top rope you here, but you royally screwed yourself. You did not need to waste one second on a Masters as a school select. School select means the Air Force guarantees to send you in-residence to get both PME and your Masters. No exceptions. A CC cannot use "lack of a Masters" to avoid sending you to ACSC on your 3rd look. Not going to happen. If it did actually happen, and that was his justification, your CC would eat crow, and the decision would not stand. Those kinds of decisions have to be justified up here at the palace, and lack of a Masters is not justification. You received really piss poor mentoring. Or did you? Read on... Will you make GO by waiting until your 3rd look to go to school, then waiting for ACSC graduation to get your Masters checked off? No, because you will not get promoted early, you will kill your chances at SDE school select in the zone because you will meet your O-5 board in the zone without Masters complete, and it makes competing for O-6 that much harder. So, Maul, let's be honest with the forum. You want to compete for Colonel, and your mentor told you that you can't wait around for Masters to hit you record until after ACSC in-res completion because you're going 3rd look. So you get a degree you hate, and you gripe and complain, because you weren't satisfied retiring as an O-5. You chose the pain to compete for O-6; stop whining about the "threats" you received from your boss, and do us all a favor and leave at the 20 year mark. Thanks for your service.

Great first point- give Gen Welsh a little more time. Second point- not sure.

Rusty, Lots of officers are trolling this site that you wouldn't expect to be. The site itself has been around and thriving for what, 14 years? Back when I was flying the line, I loved the tools that baseops.net provided. It only stands to reason that officers who found utility in the site during the early 2000's would have naturally migrated over to the forums in recent years to see what crew dogs are complaining about. Generally good entertainment. Like the majority of folks, I logged in for quite a while as a guest, content to read the threads for insight and fun. However, seeing your frustrated post a couple of days ago on this thread caused me to come out of the shadows and give my thoughts, much like what happened with Liquid in the Promotions forum. The Air Force is an amazing organization with absolutely top-tier talent, as Animal alluded to, but it is a government organization, not a club, and it will move forward like a machine. Sometimes you benefit, sometimes you get screwed; in the end, if it's not about the service and you get screwed, you will naturally get emotional and negative, and you'll end up leaving the Air Force frustrated, pissed off, and killing the attitudes of many subordinates along the way who look up to you for guidance and mentorship.

Bitte, Correct, AF is always in the catbird's seat, but honestly that's what I would expect signing the papers.

LR- Liquid is higher up than I am. KH- Nothing to panic about yet. I probably shouldn't have written that sentence in quite that manner-- I wanted to emphasize the fact that we are a contracting service, and I don't see that stopping anytime soon The best we can hope for is status quo re: end strength, but don't be surprised if that number moves next year. I do understand all of the skepticism, and the best I can offer is that A1 will learn from past mistakes. Will personnelists make different mistakes in the future? I have no doubt. But the VSP debacle that occurred a few years back should not happen again. And have no doubt, that was a gross disservice to a lot of good people.

Rusty, What I can say is that 365s are going down, and yes, numbers will be looked at over the next couple of months and factored into the FY14 Bonus. I would be very surprised if things changed significantly, however, especially for -11Fs, since this unveiling happened so late and the Air Force's "rewards" will be reaped with take rates starting next year if they keep the 20 year plan in place for fighter guys, which they should. Re: RPAs, I'm not seeing it. Perhaps the true "fall off" may be yet to hit, but there are many, many volunteers for RPA duty, especially from the C-17 community. I would go so far as to argue RPAs are starting to become a desired assignment for many people out there due to the documented reduction in TDY hours (again, especially compared to the C-17 community, who gets brutalized) and the ability to eat at least one meal with your family 270-300 days a year. For instance, take the Global Hawk squadron up at Grand Forks- you are seeing an incredible influx of volunteers to an area that is often considered "inhospitable" to families (I know, it's better than Minot), and that new squadron is absolutely thriving.

Sqwatch, Great questions- all I can say is that you won't see separate promotion boards for rated. Other creative solutions? Possibly. Depends on how next year's numbers play out (this year's numbers may be skewed, as alluded to here, because of the late release). While this year's "take" numbers may be unreliable, I guarantee that you will see good numbers for the 2014 -11F take rate if the program remains $25K through 20, no matter when the bonus is enacted. Why? Because the program has been unveiled this year, and the class of 2002/2003 will not be so hasty to get out next year until the bonus is released, in hopes of cashing in on $200K-$225K. Let's be honest- that's a ton of money, even after taxes, for a known quantity- the lifestyle you've already been living. The "unknown" outside of the AF can be quite scary...heck, it is to me...and despite the amazing opportunities that abound in the civilian sector in our great country, we all know the grass isn't always greener and the economy isn't going anywhere in the near-term (it will just keep plodding along at 2-2.5% for a while). Result- expect a high -11F FY2014 pilot bonus take rate. Keep in mind, before any creative solutions are enacted, especially if money is involved, they must be politically palatable on the Hill. After Gen Schwartz's Congressional issues with the budget last year, Gen Welsh is extremely interested in repairing political relationships. That's why this year's ACP stayed at $25K per year- the fighter issue is addressed by lengthening time, not rate of annual pay, thereby avoiding any concerns about the Air Force "raising the bonus for pilots." In reality, the bonus wasn't raised. The contracts were extended. As a result, I think you won't see any outlandish incentive ideas be implemented in the near future.

Rusty, Second post first- yes, the last twelve years have sucked from a family perspective- do not think your senior leaders don't recognize that. They simply have no tools to show that appreciation other than language. When an O-9 uses improper language that does not reflect the appreciation and admiration that our senior leadership has for our troops, it is disappointing and discouraging, but it does not represent the opinions of AF senior leadership, from Gen Welsh on down. Unfortunately, the bonus is not the forum for appreciation to be shown. The bonus is all about the numbers and the money. Period, dot. Decent question re: recalls. Initial recalls due to 9/11. Makes sense. Another recall program in 2009/10 primarily due to UAS requirements that were off-the-charts and increasing (somewhat to fill staff positions as well). Officer recall contracts were for 2-4 years, so we are still working through the backside of those contract lengths. Recalls used for targeted, specific purposes. Specifically relating to recalls used to fill staff billets: In recent years, we have taken a serious look at staffing issues across all MAJCOM, HAF, and COCOM staffs. With the recent NAF consolidations, wrap-up of OEF, continued reduction in GO billets (this one is key), and nine more years of sequestration, you should see smaller military staffs in the coming years, ideally negating further recalls for this purpose. Will the workload abate for the souls in those positions? To be determined. Staff leadership at the O-6 through O-10 level will be required to be innovative with decreasing staff levels, and they simply must communicate up the chain if the workload becomes too demanding for their FGOs. Leadership won't stand up to their bosses, you say? Honestly, that is a common myth. Everyone believes their own leadership "shuts up and colors," but I'm here to tell you, we have an amazing crop of leaders, especially at the O-6 and O-7 levels, that have and will continue to call a spade a spade in front of their bosses. However, not even the O-6's, O-7's, and O-8's are looking at the entire picture on all really big issues; truly, that resides at the O-9 and O-10 levels. When the final decision has been made, we salute smartly and execute regardless of popularity. But please, don't for a minute believe that your O-6 or O-7-level Commander/Director/Boss is purely a "yes man" because of the decisions rolling down. Most of them have the integrity to offer their thoughts, then execute once the order has been given as though the decision was their own, regardless of perception. Why? Because it's the right thing to do. And you know what? They'll be offering innovative solutions to the next problem they're tasked with as well, solutions that are created by some extremely brilliant O-4's and O-5's doing amazing staff work across this globe. Ok, that last paragraph had nothing to do with ACP, but needed to be said (especially after Liquid's woodshedding in the Promotion/PRF thread).

Recut, Very good question/point. I should have written, "We do not need more FGO -11Ms to stay in." That phraseology would have been more accurate. The unscheduled "glut" is at the senior Maj/Lt Col/Col ranks.

Rusty and bonus apologists, You have to take a step back and look at this the way we see it here at the P-gon- from a "Big Blue" perspective- not popular, I know, but to make any sense of this, you have to take the personal emotion out of it. 1. We do not need pilot O-4's and O-5's at the 20+ year point to stay in. Especially -11Ms. Period. We are and will be way too fat for years to come. In fact, the sooner they retire, the sooner the FGO officer "glut" can start to unplug, and we can get the promotion cycles back on-track. 2. In general, we do not need more -11M's to stay in. Whether or not the airline hiring bonanza occurs is irrelevant at this point in time. Even if the mass exodus kicks off in 2017, the evidence simply does not exist right now to warrant an overreaction on the Air Force's part. Devil's advocate- the airline hiring boom happens in 2017. The Air Force is late to correct. No biggie- the Air Force will fix it with money at that time. Big blue has "fixed" these problems in the past, each and every time, and it will do so again in the future. Contrary to popular belief, the fix will cost less than throwing away bonus money for years and years with no quantifiable return for that money. 3. We (the AF) are in a fiscal nightmare right now. Partially created by our own doing, partly from sequestration. As a result, we're really taking a look at needs vs. wants. That's a very, very good thing. It's a self-examination that should have been happening all along, but nobody cared when money was flowing. Everything (bonuses, personnel cuts, aircraft adds, base closures) MUST begin and end with the money. 4. Reiteration of several previous posts- pilots, you are not entitled to a bonus. Ever. In fact, I'm surprised the following didn't gain traction at the puzzle palace: FY2013 - No bonus for initial eligibles over the 15 year point on 30 Sep 13 - No bonus for -11Ms - Same $25K/5 for all other -11's After the initial outrage and relative purge of this year's -11M class, the Air Force could have come back with the following: FY2014 - No bonus for initial eligibles over the 16 year point on 30 Sep 14 (same as the rule just released) - Reinstate $25K/5 for -11Ms; maintain this for everyone except -11Fs - 11Fs $25K/7 This novel idea has the advantage of weeding out a glut of FGO's, making every class on the backside (FY14, FY15, etc) feel special that they're even getting any bonus, AND being much cheaper for the AF. Before the spears come out, yes, I understand it kills one class year of -11Ms, but it would help pilot retention overall, the Air Force would save money in the long run, and like I said, future pilots would feel quite "special" for getting a bonus at all. Final words- it amazes me how many people on this site talk about "people they know" who are getting out ASAP; the numbers simply don't back that up. How can the Pentagon and Randolph use anything but the quantitative data they're pulling down? They can't, they won't, and you know it. Leadership cannot simply go with a "gut feel" when spending the taxpayers dollars. Military pay is generous, health care is extremely generous, retirement for life is ridiculously generous--the masses will not exit for feeling slighted by the bonus/bonus rules, and leadership knows that. Heck, wait until you hear about the personnel cuts coming in FY2014. The Air Force has been extremely generous with this year's bonus for every pilot- leadership could have chosen to skin this cat as oulined above, but they didn't, and 2001/2002 pilots who are eligible this year should be grateful with hat in hand. Enough realism- probably more than most of you can handle. Let the spears fly.