General Chang

Bitte, Correct, AF is always in the catbird's seat, but honestly that's what I would expect signing the papers.

LR- Liquid is higher up than I am. KH- Nothing to panic about yet. I probably shouldn't have written that sentence in quite that manner-- I wanted to emphasize the fact that we are a contracting service, and I don't see that stopping anytime soon The best we can hope for is status quo re: end strength, but don't be surprised if that number moves next year. I do understand all of the skepticism, and the best I can offer is that A1 will learn from past mistakes. Will personnelists make different mistakes in the future? I have no doubt. But the VSP debacle that occurred a few years back should not happen again. And have no doubt, that was a gross disservice to a lot of good people.

Rusty, What I can say is that 365s are going down, and yes, numbers will be looked at over the next couple of months and factored into the FY14 Bonus. I would be very surprised if things changed significantly, however, especially for -11Fs, since this unveiling happened so late and the Air Force's "rewards" will be reaped with take rates starting next year if they keep the 20 year plan in place for fighter guys, which they should. Re: RPAs, I'm not seeing it. Perhaps the true "fall off" may be yet to hit, but there are many, many volunteers for RPA duty, especially from the C-17 community. I would go so far as to argue RPAs are starting to become a desired assignment for many people out there due to the documented reduction in TDY hours (again, especially compared to the C-17 community, who gets brutalized) and the ability to eat at least one meal with your family 270-300 days a year. For instance, take the Global Hawk squadron up at Grand Forks- you are seeing an incredible influx of volunteers to an area that is often considered "inhospitable" to families (I know, it's better than Minot), and that new squadron is absolutely thriving.

Sqwatch, Great questions- all I can say is that you won't see separate promotion boards for rated. Other creative solutions? Possibly. Depends on how next year's numbers play out (this year's numbers may be skewed, as alluded to here, because of the late release). While this year's "take" numbers may be unreliable, I guarantee that you will see good numbers for the 2014 -11F take rate if the program remains $25K through 20, no matter when the bonus is enacted. Why? Because the program has been unveiled this year, and the class of 2002/2003 will not be so hasty to get out next year until the bonus is released, in hopes of cashing in on $200K-$225K. Let's be honest- that's a ton of money, even after taxes, for a known quantity- the lifestyle you've already been living. The "unknown" outside of the AF can be quite scary...heck, it is to me...and despite the amazing opportunities that abound in the civilian sector in our great country, we all know the grass isn't always greener and the economy isn't going anywhere in the near-term (it will just keep plodding along at 2-2.5% for a while). Result- expect a high -11F FY2014 pilot bonus take rate. Keep in mind, before any creative solutions are enacted, especially if money is involved, they must be politically palatable on the Hill. After Gen Schwartz's Congressional issues with the budget last year, Gen Welsh is extremely interested in repairing political relationships. That's why this year's ACP stayed at $25K per year- the fighter issue is addressed by lengthening time, not rate of annual pay, thereby avoiding any concerns about the Air Force "raising the bonus for pilots." In reality, the bonus wasn't raised. The contracts were extended. As a result, I think you won't see any outlandish incentive ideas be implemented in the near future.

Rusty, Second post first- yes, the last twelve years have sucked from a family perspective- do not think your senior leaders don't recognize that. They simply have no tools to show that appreciation other than language. When an O-9 uses improper language that does not reflect the appreciation and admiration that our senior leadership has for our troops, it is disappointing and discouraging, but it does not represent the opinions of AF senior leadership, from Gen Welsh on down. Unfortunately, the bonus is not the forum for appreciation to be shown. The bonus is all about the numbers and the money. Period, dot. Decent question re: recalls. Initial recalls due to 9/11. Makes sense. Another recall program in 2009/10 primarily due to UAS requirements that were off-the-charts and increasing (somewhat to fill staff positions as well). Officer recall contracts were for 2-4 years, so we are still working through the backside of those contract lengths. Recalls used for targeted, specific purposes. Specifically relating to recalls used to fill staff billets: In recent years, we have taken a serious look at staffing issues across all MAJCOM, HAF, and COCOM staffs. With the recent NAF consolidations, wrap-up of OEF, continued reduction in GO billets (this one is key), and nine more years of sequestration, you should see smaller military staffs in the coming years, ideally negating further recalls for this purpose. Will the workload abate for the souls in those positions? To be determined. Staff leadership at the O-6 through O-10 level will be required to be innovative with decreasing staff levels, and they simply must communicate up the chain if the workload becomes too demanding for their FGOs. Leadership won't stand up to their bosses, you say? Honestly, that is a common myth. Everyone believes their own leadership "shuts up and colors," but I'm here to tell you, we have an amazing crop of leaders, especially at the O-6 and O-7 levels, that have and will continue to call a spade a spade in front of their bosses. However, not even the O-6's, O-7's, and O-8's are looking at the entire picture on all really big issues; truly, that resides at the O-9 and O-10 levels. When the final decision has been made, we salute smartly and execute regardless of popularity. But please, don't for a minute believe that your O-6 or O-7-level Commander/Director/Boss is purely a "yes man" because of the decisions rolling down. Most of them have the integrity to offer their thoughts, then execute once the order has been given as though the decision was their own, regardless of perception. Why? Because it's the right thing to do. And you know what? They'll be offering innovative solutions to the next problem they're tasked with as well, solutions that are created by some extremely brilliant O-4's and O-5's doing amazing staff work across this globe. Ok, that last paragraph had nothing to do with ACP, but needed to be said (especially after Liquid's woodshedding in the Promotion/PRF thread).

Recut, Very good question/point. I should have written, "We do not need more FGO -11Ms to stay in." That phraseology would have been more accurate. The unscheduled "glut" is at the senior Maj/Lt Col/Col ranks.

Rusty and bonus apologists, You have to take a step back and look at this the way we see it here at the P-gon- from a "Big Blue" perspective- not popular, I know, but to make any sense of this, you have to take the personal emotion out of it. 1. We do not need pilot O-4's and O-5's at the 20+ year point to stay in. Especially -11Ms. Period. We are and will be way too fat for years to come. In fact, the sooner they retire, the sooner the FGO officer "glut" can start to unplug, and we can get the promotion cycles back on-track. 2. In general, we do not need more -11M's to stay in. Whether or not the airline hiring bonanza occurs is irrelevant at this point in time. Even if the mass exodus kicks off in 2017, the evidence simply does not exist right now to warrant an overreaction on the Air Force's part. Devil's advocate- the airline hiring boom happens in 2017. The Air Force is late to correct. No biggie- the Air Force will fix it with money at that time. Big blue has "fixed" these problems in the past, each and every time, and it will do so again in the future. Contrary to popular belief, the fix will cost less than throwing away bonus money for years and years with no quantifiable return for that money. 3. We (the AF) are in a fiscal nightmare right now. Partially created by our own doing, partly from sequestration. As a result, we're really taking a look at needs vs. wants. That's a very, very good thing. It's a self-examination that should have been happening all along, but nobody cared when money was flowing. Everything (bonuses, personnel cuts, aircraft adds, base closures) MUST begin and end with the money. 4. Reiteration of several previous posts- pilots, you are not entitled to a bonus. Ever. In fact, I'm surprised the following didn't gain traction at the puzzle palace: FY2013 - No bonus for initial eligibles over the 15 year point on 30 Sep 13 - No bonus for -11Ms - Same $25K/5 for all other -11's After the initial outrage and relative purge of this year's -11M class, the Air Force could have come back with the following: FY2014 - No bonus for initial eligibles over the 16 year point on 30 Sep 14 (same as the rule just released) - Reinstate $25K/5 for -11Ms; maintain this for everyone except -11Fs - 11Fs $25K/7 This novel idea has the advantage of weeding out a glut of FGO's, making every class on the backside (FY14, FY15, etc) feel special that they're even getting any bonus, AND being much cheaper for the AF. Before the spears come out, yes, I understand it kills one class year of -11Ms, but it would help pilot retention overall, the Air Force would save money in the long run, and like I said, future pilots would feel quite "special" for getting a bonus at all. Final words- it amazes me how many people on this site talk about "people they know" who are getting out ASAP; the numbers simply don't back that up. How can the Pentagon and Randolph use anything but the quantitative data they're pulling down? They can't, they won't, and you know it. Leadership cannot simply go with a "gut feel" when spending the taxpayers dollars. Military pay is generous, health care is extremely generous, retirement for life is ridiculously generous--the masses will not exit for feeling slighted by the bonus/bonus rules, and leadership knows that. Heck, wait until you hear about the personnel cuts coming in FY2014. The Air Force has been extremely generous with this year's bonus for every pilot- leadership could have chosen to skin this cat as oulined above, but they didn't, and 2001/2002 pilots who are eligible this year should be grateful with hat in hand. Enough realism- probably more than most of you can handle. Let the spears fly.