brwwg&b
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Everything posted by brwwg&b
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Seems like back when MC-12 and MQ-9 were single assignments with a "possibility" to recover to a CAF or MAF MWS after. Like then, I'm sure whatever plan they come up with now will be half-truths and probably more disappointments than victories. I'd be surprised if MAF leadership lets someone come in, get trained, and leave within a year. EIther use them for a full assignment (like banking pilots in the early 90s) or I'd expect them to just kick to ACC to problem solve a la black jets etc... Even Navy or Marine fighter exchanges would make more sense. Which probably means they'll just send people to be E-3 co's to ride the jets to the boneyard or something else equally stupid.
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Ah, yes...the ineffable knowledge of the public
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Winning looks like conflict not spilling outside of the region of Ukraine, and end states negotiated (by politics or by power) with Ukraine in a position of influence over outcome, not Russia. Can Ukraine win in a trench warfare slog? No! Can they outsize impact through leveraging technological asymmetry and prowess to overcome manpower disadvantage? Yes! Especially if they stop being artificially cuffed, which is the latest positive trend, and again where a lot of bang for our buck is occurring. As well, the less publicly discussed positive impact on our own industry and stockpiles being refreshed/renewed with modern tech versions. Should we intervene if every conflict globally? Certainly not. However, you're a much more isolationist minded person than I am, and it's definitely not a one-size-fits-all answer to say "Not NATO? Good luck on your own!" Distinction between the N-K region, Sudan, variety of NW Africa, etc...vs Ukraine being invaded by our recognized #2 competitor is necessary. You are acting as though we are preparing sending troops to go slog it in the trenches alongside...a far cry from the positive benefit our $ and equipment is supporting the Ukrainians to fight on their own. If your primary argument is to penny-pinch a budget, I'd suggest you take a step back, take in the bigger picture on our own budget woes, and start elsewhere. No problem with a multipolar world, it provides more opportunity for stability than a king of the hill unipolar or constant push-pull of a bipolar world. Russia alignment becoming more close with China will be an outcome of necessity and they certainly won't be the power end of that stick...not a result of our "isolation" of Russia, not directly at least. Remind me what curtailed Russia's status as a NATO Partnership for Peace member, and the NATO-Russia Council? Cool throwback. Do you honestly believe in 2012 that Al Qaeda was a larger threat to the U.S. national interests than Russia? I'm not here to make political sides arguments. Were things handled perfectly in 2014? Certainly not, but it was an indicator of the longer term and put into motion many of the things that have ultimately helped Ukraine in their current conflict. Sure, Putin won't make it to Paris (nor desire to) - but how far will you let him go in attempting to restore Soviet Union borders before intervention is required? Again, much better to do it with $ and equipment doing literally what it was designed to, against the adversary it was designed for vice committing bodies. Unchecked behavior emboldens and repeats at larger scales.
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Let's skip over your assertion of "unwinnable" : assume that not everyone believes that (Ukrainians, most significantly) If you believed in your nation, culture, freedoms, and independence, would you suggest that the people should fight to preserve those, possibly losing their lives? Or, would you suggest they roll over to tyranny and oppression of an invading nation? I do agree that currently there is no vital interest in Ukraine - this is why we haven't gone to war there. However, what do you think the vital interests of the U.S. are in regards to Russia?
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https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/06/13/bilateral-security-agreement-between-the-united-states-of-america-and-ukraine/ Bilat Security Agreement signed // uh, do you assume those lives would be better off if they were unable to fight?
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It'll likely mean a trip to Wright Patt and specialist to look and make a determination. I'd argue the waiver should be very likely, have heard of them being approved even if the condition wasn't totally under control by medicine. Depending how long you've lived with it / potential damage to the esophagus would be the bigger concern. Likely a non-issue, free trip to Wright Patt out of it - go check out the AF Museum during the stay.
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I bet if there was a cease fire in Ukraine signed tomorrow you'd count that as a win. LordRatner is right, you're overly simplistic and fail to understand any complexity in the world beyond A therefore B. Go back to your cave.
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RUMINT: He went on leave and spoke to press and supposedly the president of Kosovo - in uniform, without any oversight or pre-planning/official coordination.
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Any truth to rumint of near entire Vance T-6 fleet damage due to excessive winds from a storm last week?
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USAF Finally found a way to get rid of the A-10
brwwg&b replied to ClearedHot's topic in General Discussion
Big emphasis on generally here. The FSCL really doesn't have anything to do with defining what's CAS vs AI, and what factors are decided on where to place the FSCL is more of a factor to your point. To FourFans' point, yes going for rear echelons usually is interdiction. Might be blurry depending on if & where the enemy is capable of/is engaging with friendly forces and their maneuver. Likewise for friendlies (SOF or other embedded into the deep, etc...) Overall, semantics that are likely to be f'd up 3 ways from wednesday by any C2 / staff / GOs / civil leadership anyways. -
Looks similar to ones in the past, except now there's a graduated $ increase from 3-4 years (35K) to 5-7 year (42.5K) or 8-12 year (50K) options. Since this is the "Legacy" AvB, it doesn't apply yet for people who are approaching but not AT their ADSC. 11Rs still get some form of screwed (35K max, except U2 pilots with RDTM EH...whatever that means) I think they're only trying to screw non U-2 11Rs this time. Open until 15 September, will be interesting to see if there's any difference from historical take rates...
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Not surprised, they've rarely been able to even stay above water, much less manage anything "seamlessly". I hope someone is fighting to push the rope for you though, that sucks.
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The article says it'll be released on 6 June on myFSS. Reading is tough
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It's funny - I was actually part of the convo with their team. When they realized they needed to update the emblem, they asked for input, and had a specific idea of F-16 flyover to "rectify" their mistake. I had (begrudgingly) scoured their regs, and in fact used the "specific aircraft" (which is not allowed - exactly for the reason Scooter14 said; that it doesn't "stand the test of time") as another argument point to them for updating the patch. When I mentioned that changing it to an F-16 doesn't fix that part of the problem, they said "oh no, we DO want that aircraft on there" I guess we're beholden to living life one step at a time... I'd even made a design with "darts" which would've preserved the missing man portion of the patch, at least. YCMTSU
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https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1697080/russia-poland-missle-dead-NATO-state-Ukraine-war-pictures-world-war-3 Reports that the Polish prime minister is calling emergency meetings
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You're asserting that Ukrainian military competency and capability (on their own) is zero. Which is blatantly incorrect. F yeah. Totally agree. You're still overstating our role. Even if the US is the bike - Ukraine are the bicyclists. If the bike stops working or magically disappears - Ukraine are now the runners. Or maybe they have a scooter or motorcycle they jump on. It doesn't simplify to automatic defeat just because Uncle Sam decides to stop showing up (which, by the way...won't happen, so the entire discussion is moot).
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For shits & grins though - we are approaching six months of Ukraine having HIMARS.
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It isn't as black and white as you make it out. Like a teenager learning to drive under supervision, there comes a moment where you let them go drive on their own. Before you do, they might sneak out and take the car out on their own. The difference here being that we aren't going to go take back equipment or munitions which was gifted, if they decide they no longer need supervision Realize that they have support (limited, sure) from many other nations from the US who have much more skin in the game when it comes to how this war settles. I know that you don't know who you are talking to. I also know that intelligence support isn't a discussion fit for this forum. edit: grammar
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National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan highlights four "core elements of consensus" in the U.S. gov about Ukraine. (about halfway through, CTRL+F Ukraine) https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/press-briefings/2022/11/11/press-gaggle-by-press-secretary-karine-jean-pierre-and-national-security-advisor-jake-sullivan-en-route-phnom-penh-cambodia/ TL;DR version: 1. It's Ukraine's decision when to go to the negotiating table. 2. Principles of a just peace are based on territorial and sovereign integrity (U.N. Charter). 3. Russia doubling down on annexation claims means they can't be a good faith negotiator. 4. U.S. approach remains the same - enable Ukraine to be in the best possible position on the battlefield. "And one more big-ticket item. So there’s kind of this sense of when is Ukraine going to negotiate. Okay, ultimately, at a 30,000-foot level, Ukraine is the party of peace in this conflict, and Russia is the party of war. Russia invaded Ukraine. If Russia chose to stop fighting in Ukraine and left, it would be the end of the war. If Ukraine chose to stop fighting and give up, it would be the end of Ukraine."
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Subordinate isn't the right wording. They were reliant on western supplied equipment and munitions. They've got lots of equipment now...munitions will continue to be a challenge. It doesn't make them a puppet for us, and doesn't mean we can tell them "go do this" and expect them to salute smartly and follow marching orders. They are compelled to consider (arguably, strongly consider) our recommendations....and then, it still is their decision. The situation has changed enough that the Ukrainians may be inspired enough by battlefield victories to think they have more rope to play with - they can do whatever they want with that rope. It's for us to try to advise, so they don't end up snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. We are certainly leveraging political tools to do so. If we stopped handing over equipment and munitions today - it isn't a guarantee that the Ukrainians would lose (in the near term). However, they (and we) understand the importance of both building & rebuilding a western supplied military for them. They're playing the politics side of it pretty smartly as well...they aren't subservient, realize that US would suffer political blowback if we just walked away right now, and know that we can help them behind the scenes as well. This doesn't just easily simplify to "we are a big country and you are a little one" power plays (nor should it).
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While the US has been the largest patron, they aren't the only one...and Ukraine isn't our whore. It's their country - we can carrot & stick all day to compel, but it's still their decision. Those measures are working, as Zelenskyy already (somewhat) walked it back - various reports of some willingness to enter talks with Russia - on Ukraine terms (possibly a post-Putin Russia). https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/08/zelenskyy-talks-with-russia-possible-on-ukraines-terms-00065624 At this point, if Russia stops fighting, the war is over. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine is over (now or later). Aside from trying to provide off-ramps to Putin in an attempt to let him save face (won't work/matter), Ukraine going to negotiating table now is only beneficial to Russia.
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Some wild airmchair punditing there. Not many missiles start on a straight downward trajectory, burn out, reignite on a corkscrew while changing direction from down to up then smoke your flight lead. Still, a plus for the result either way: one less ruski Frogfoot in the world
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1/5 NATO countries that border Russia are in the red - Norway only. Absolutely agree that the remainder should show up with the $$ / % GDP to share shouldering the weight of deterrence and defense. Just saying your argument isn’t accurate. I do also agree that if/when Finland joins, they’ll need to bump up from their historic ~1.5% GDP on defense.
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Six additional National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) with additional munitions for NASAMS; Up to 245,000 rounds of 155mm artillery ammunition; Up to 65,000 rounds of 120mm mortar ammunition; Up to 24 counter-artillery radars; Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and support equipment for Scan Eagle UAS systems; VAMPIRE Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems; Laser-guided rocket systems; Funding for training, maintenance, and sustainment. Source: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3138105/nearly-3-billion-in-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/ Bashi don't be so naive to think that we would just hand $3B in cash and say "go have fun." The USAI package absolutely makes sense and is aligned to both our and Ukraine's interests. Even looking at the $40B total aid, that's comparatively about 5% of the annual DoD budget, and easily the most direct bang for our buck at the moment. Throwing a fit over $3B being used how it is...you're the only ignorant one here.
