gearhog

First, of all the ideas in my post, Elon's quote was of the least importance. Which of his predictions have been proven false? I'm sure there have been some, just not sure what they are. Second, you're a former AF nav who consistently expresses less than accurate assessments on a message board, mocking a guy that started his own successful car company and space program, based on his predictions. Given your self-assured knack for identifying irony and lack of self-reflection, how did you miss this one? LOL. Third, in this specific quote, where is the flaw? Would you say the world, as a whole, is trending toward an increasing level of chaos and conflict, or away from it? Type "Yes" if you agree with Elon. Type "No" if you'd like to make a prediction outside your "field of expertise".

Easy, you just don't lead 'em so much. https://x.com/TONYxTWO/status/1717657798807290069?s=20

What is this? It seems unprecedented. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/us-halts-exports-of-most-civilian-firearms-for-90-days/ar-AA1iYGFf?ocid=socialshare&pc=U531&cvid=520d82b7ac8242239a356151bd2bff40&ei=11 This pause applies to the Bureau of Industry and Security’s (BIS) issuance of new licenses involving certain firearms, related components, and ammunition controlled on the Commerce Control List, Supp. No. 1 to part 774 of the Export Administration Regulations, 15 CFR parts 730-774 (EAR), specifically, the following four Export Control Classification Numbers (ECCNs): ECCN 0A501, ECCN 0A502, ECCN 0A504, and ECCN 0A505, that are destined for non-governmental end users worldwide apart from those located in Ukraine, Israel, or a country in Country Group A:1 (Wassenaar Arrangement Participating States), Supp. No. 1 to part 740 of the EAR. Consistent with the above, the Department’s International Trade Administration (ITA), Global Markets and U.S. & Foreign Commercial Service is pausing acceptance of new requests for export assistance (fee or non-fee-based) for firearms and ammunition to non-governmental end users worldwide, apart from those located in Ukraine, Israel, and Country Group A:1. The ITA pause applies to semi-automatic and non-automatic firearms, firearm optics, shotguns, and receivers (frames) and ammunition.

Explain.

I just heard Elon Musk say this, and it's an interesting thought. “I think we are sleepwalking towards World War III. With one stupid decision after another. People need to do some self-reflection. If their forecasts did not come true, they should think that maybe the rest of their forecasts will not come true,” - They turned off the lights. No supplies. There is apparently a ground invasion. Massive airstrikes leveling parts of the city. Earlier, they cut all internet and comms to Gaza. Still, horrific videos are still being circulated. I don't know that a war of this intensity, in a densely populated civilian area, has been fought when while the global population has this level of unregulated access to information regarding it. However you feel about either side, there is a high probability Israel is going to lose control of the narrative. Israel was given a strong hand to play, but are they overplaying it? My impression, based on the number of people in the streets around the world, is that if you multiply those numbers on both sides by their passion and motivation to act on their beliefs, is that this is going to get very ugly, and the disparity is huge. Israel wiping Gaza off the map may be an emotionally satisfying thought, but it's a fire that could ignite the world, and no one can forecast the result. https://x.com/jacksonhinklle/status/1718066605920235569?s=20

Talked to some homies on alert in Guard squadrons. We're getting ready to defend the shit out of the USA. Fortuitous that we had already moved so many assets into the region in the event of attacks such as these. Yesterday: Today:

I think we, in the West, have an altogether different understanding of war and death. I encourage you to watch the entire thing if you haven't already seen it, but the 5:00 mark makes my point. We have a very long way to go if we think we're going to attrit the Russians into submission.

True, I typed that partially in jest, but partially to make the point that we are contributing a portion of your and my productive value to a conflict over land that has little intrinsic value. So if we're not protecting the land, what is it we are receiving in return for our investment in this conflict? "We're taking out a global superpower." Why is anyone calling Russia a superpower? Primacy of learning. We were taught as kids that they were the big baddies 40 years ago and forgot to check and see if they still met the criteria. Look at the infographic I posted above. They're number 10 or 11 in the world economy. It is because they have nukes? They're one of maybe 10. They're no more a superpower than Brazil or Italy. What is the only thing Russia has going for it? Energy. Something that is finite in supply and the rest of the world, especially the West, has a growing appetite for. The real lesson here is "Don't fuck with the petro-dollar." Soverignty, Freedom, Anti-Authoritism, is all made up BS to garner public support. Those things exist en masse in countless places around the globe. Somehow it only matters when energy and wealth are involved. "It's a bargain". I have sister-in-law that that likes to shop. They're in a $350K house, up to their assholes in debt, and she's bringing home some bullshit knick-knack doo-dads because they were a good deal at 50% off. Well, he, an engineer, recently got a pink slip because the DoD decided they really didn't robot fuel trucks as bad as weapons for Ukraine and now I'm supposed to bail them out by buying their things they shouldn't have charged to the credit card in the first place. Sorry, that's your debt, not mine. Who is buying our debt? China currently owns about a trillion dollars worth of US treasuries. In a conflict, they would use that to wreck our economy. By indebting ourselves to fight one foe, we're exposing ourselves to another. "They're a threat to Europe and the West." I've asked this before. If all it took was a throwing a bargain sum of money at the problem to stop Russia a few miles into Ukraine, how were they ever a threat to anyone that really matters? What's the score card on former Soviet republics joining NATO vs. joining Russia. After decades watching them being absorbed into the other team, Russia finally decides to take a stand over the shittiest and most corrupt one of the bunch. I'd say have at it. Let UKR be the anchor around their neck for next few decades, because that's exactly what they're gonna be for us. Sort of like Greece for the European Union. 120,000 of 143,000,000 is eight one-hundredths of one percent. If 15% of the DoD budget is an insignificant number, what is .08% of Russian population? I do agree with you, however. Overall, Russia is facing a demographic problem and has been since long before this war. The war isn't moving the needle. But if they are facing a demographic collapse, wouldn't that further substantiate my position that they were/are not a viable threat? I contend that the collapse of Russia is a greater threat than its existence. As Russia leadership has a numerous times, "Why should the world exist without Russia?" There have been times in recent history where our relationship with Russia has been cooperative and mutually beneficial. Can anyone figure out the common thread during times where the relationship has soured? This is an immensely complicated issue, and I'm trying to weigh as many factors and variables as I can comprehend. I love my country, and I love my life in it. After trying to consume and process as much information as I can, attempt to eliminate my biases, it seems apparent to me that the biggest threats to me, my family, and my community are coming from within, not without. I can appreciate that my worldview may not be 100% correct and I've said before that I'm willing to abandon it if presented with a better one. That's why my intent here is to be somewhat disagreeable and challenging. If I were pawnman, I'd instantly submerse myself in whatever the official narrative is for the "current thing", be it COVID, Ukraine, Israel, etc., and regurgitate it without a single original or critical thought while trying to high five everybody in the room for being one of the bros. Nobody likes that.

If you want to take a shot at me, grow a spine and do so directly. Obviously, you're a big fan of indirect engagement, but I think it's a weak way to handle your business. I could draw it out for you in crayon and stick figures, and you'd still be incapable of understanding. I do not support Russia, and you're a fool for believing you, me, and the people we care about will experience a better life as a result of this. You're watching the conflict unfold from a half a planet away, and through a soda straw, while nutting in your underoos because you saw a bad guy get exploded. Ok, enough insults. 😄 Here's what I see: a great unraveling of global political, social, and economic orders. Consequences of unlimited growth in world of finite resources. Thucydidies trap. A bunch of 80 year olds spending our nation into oblivion to settle old conflicts before they kick it. Some napkin math I just did: The average price, per acre, of land in Ukraine is $580. Russia has assumed control of approx 30 million acres of mostly farmland. That's $17 Billion dollars. For the $113 Billion we've spent, and gotten nothing, we could have bought the land, built homes and infrastructure, and populated the area with Mexicans, Palestinians, Ukrainians, Africans, Americans, Liberals, Transvestites, whomever... and still had money left over. NATO could have thrown Russia into chaos without a single weapon. This whole thing is hilariously insane. So yeah, big f'n waste.

Jordan cancels Biden's visit. Biden's visit with Egypt and Palestinian leadership also cancelled today. Iran embassy in Syria tells Israel "Time is Up" as Iranian foreign minister flies to Jeddah for emergency meeting with Saudi government. Edit: UN sanctions on Iran for the purchase and sale of ballistic missile and long range drones expired 3 hours ago. They are now free to provide weapons to Hamas, Hezbollh, Russia, etc. US embassy in Beirut attacked. British and French embassy in Tehran attacked. Israeli embassy in Turkey and Jordan attacked. Large protests in Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, Turkey, Yemen, and Canada. Meanwhile, the sharks are circling. https://x.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1714343936204878261?s=20 Nice work, Joe.

You’d be correct. Footage from several angles, including an Al-Jazeera feed, show a failed rocket launch from Gaza. https://x.com/manniefabian/status/1714377828131553446?s=46

Horrific scenes from a hospital in Gaza now. It was hit by a missile. Estimates of 500 to 800 civilian refugees killed in the blast. Abbas said it was an Israeli airstrike. Israel said a Hamas rocket failed. This is definitely going to kick things up a notch.

More acceleration. Marines Bataan Amphibious Battle Group underway to join the Gerald Ford and Eisenhower Carriers in the Eastern Med. That's a lot of power in one place. For deterrence. Remember when everyone doubted Russia was going to invade after massing on the border? You don't move that much shit and not use it. Wall Street Journal says the first 2,000 troops have received deployment orders for Israel support on the ground. Could be fake. Not sure. Palestinian sympathizer shoots up Belgium. Holla Snackbar.

Eh, I wouldn't lose any sleep over it. We've started wars over more dubious intel and you survived.

J, Hamas talking points? I don't think you know what "talking points" are. This email was purported to be from a server hack, but I don't think that it is. That would make it a fabrication. But here's the interesting part: I predict that your ideology would fall precisely in line with all of the what you're claiming to be Hamas talking points. I doubt you would disagree with anything in it. Do you believe it would be anti-semetic for US troops to refuse to fight on behalf of Israel? After all, you believed that unvaccinated people who failed to support the current thing should die. What about people who fail to support Israel? What methods would you use if say, you were an ROTC instructor, and your students said that they weren't interested in fighting a war over the Holy Land? How would you change their mind? Do you believe that Trump and the Republicans are adversely affecting public sentiment that would hinder US efforts to render aid? Do you believe that Israel can win this war alone? None of these sound like Hamas talking points, they sound like yours.

Yeah, I didn’t see the watermark. It’s gotta be fake. Seems too carefully crafted in hitting all the marks I mentioned above. I doubt he begins his official emails with “Hey Bob,”

Nah, dog wasn't killed. Its muzzle was through the fence. Pinching its nose was meant to be a disincentive for poor behavior, but the pliers locked and the dog instantly disappeared with some of the loudest noises ever heard.

Email sent by NGB Chief. Yikes. There are a lot of bad indicators here. -Failure to fight for Israel is "Anti-Semitism" -Planning to alter troop sentiment. -Framing Trump and Republicans as a problem -CENTCOM having limited capabilities and being completely caught off guard. -Israel not being able to defend itself. What’s everyone’s take on this?

I like dogs. But this one time, my friend's daughter was riding her horse and the neighborhood nuisance pitbull mix or whatever tried to attack her (and him) through the woven wire fence. He went to his garage. He never saw the fat-headed dog or his vice grips again. Just remembered that and it made me feel good.

Stories I'm seeing just from scrolling the last half hour or so. Things are accelerating pretty quick. Sounds as though Israel (?) is bombing Aleppo, Syria. Reports are the airport has been destroyed. Military convoy attacked on the Iraq/Syria border. C-130J model Gunship in the skies overhead. Tonight, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian in Doha, Qatar. USS Eisenhower officially joining the USS Gerald Ford in the Eastern Med. Massive Pro-Palestinian protests in London Sweden Sydney Currently reading "The Fourth Turning is Here". Great book if you're trying to make all of this make sense. Also, Ray Dalio's "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order" is good. Here's a video he produced with a fantastic space station perspective of what's currently happening (although he seems to be plagiarizing the work of lots of others). Worth your time. Buy more firearms.

Hmm... Debatable.

Within the last few, my daughter sent me videos of angry Pro-Palestine demonstrations at her college campus. I'm over-looking a protest from my hotel room. My company just sent a blast email to be on the alert for threats to our operation. Apparently, tomorrow is a "Day of Rage" or "Global Jihad". I think there's no way that happens. Even if it was possible, the minute you go after masses of these groups for deportation, the whole place burns to the ground. But imagine being able to rally the people of a host nation enough to collect these minorities and haul them away. What does that look like? Train cars?

After the Cold War, our defense strategy maintained that the US should be able to fight and win two simultaneous wars in two different theaters of conflict. During Obama, it was changed that we would fight and win one war, and inflict unacceptable losses in another. Then, under Trump, it was fight and win one, and deter aggression in another theater. Our assets are more capable, but there are less of them, and an asset may only be in one place at one time. I estimate half the world's population is rooting for our failure. We're on the brink of an economic "difficulty" to put it mildly. So, we are not equipped to fight and win more than one war and we're dangerously close to financial ruin. We don't have the recruits, and we're sending enormous amounts of weapons, equipment, and ammo to proxy wars to the point we are affecting our own readiness. We have strategic threats in THREE theaters now. The Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the Pacific. What is #1? What is #2? What is #3? If we're feeling top of our game (and we're not), we can choose which one to win, one to fight, and one to disengage. We have multiple Congressional leaders now calling for Tehran to be attacked FFS. I contend that Russia was never a real threat. Why? Because they are small potatoes. China is #1. The world's energy supply (ME) is #2. Kirby is telling you we simply cannot do it all. He's preparing you for the idea difficult choices must be made. The enemy also knows we cannot do it all. Once we're balls deep in Israel, you can bet your ass there will be another fire to be put out. We're being baited into managing all the world's conflicts so that ultimately, we'll be unable to manage any of them.