VigilanteNav

Very lucky it wasn't a military trained dude. Always go for center of mass not the head.

Tony says all that needs to be said... Solution in Search of a Problem - by Tony Carr - The Radar (substack.com)

Pretty sick stuff by Putin but unsurprising. You'd think this would push Congress over the edge on providing the Ukraine funding package that's been held up by the MTGs, etc. But, alas, maybe not. " joint investigation by 60 Minutes, the Insider, and Der Spiegel strongly suggests that the Kremlin has waged a sustained kinetic campaign directly targeting US government personnel both in the United States and internationally for a decade, with the likely objective of physically incapacitating US government personnel." Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 1, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

I doubt he'll read it but this brought me great pleasure in envisioning BC's head exploding as he reads this. Enjoy! https://www.wired.com/story/man-gets-217-covid-vaccine-shots-totally-fine/

More interesting than tank kills. Ukraine's Defence Intelligence posts final flight path of downed Russian A-50 – map | Ukrainska Pravda So, that's 2 x A-50s down and this latest one is claimed to be from an S-200 (SA-5) and not a Patriot. Pretty impressive they pulled out a system that in open sources says they retired 10 years ago and proceeded to shoot down an aircraft at that range. This combined with the reporting that they've shot down around 10 fighters in the past week or so is making for a bad week for the Russian Air Force. Ukraine might be losing some ground but the Russian Air Force is paying for it.

Interesting, it's almost as if they waited until after the Tucker interview.... Russian activist and Putin critic Alexei Navalny dies in prison | Alexei Navalny | The Guardian

Some news to push this thread back towards its original topic... Russian activist and Putin critic Alexei Navalny dies in prison | Alexei Navalny | The Guardian My assumption is it won't move the needle in any direction. Sadly.

My apologies. Should have said "effectively veto'd" instead. Senate advances Ukraine aid bill despite Trump opposition | Reuters Regardless, I guess you can call me a pro-war bubba. I'll continue to be happy to side with Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. And, yeah, would have liked to see some US border security funding included in this bill. But, the grand master said all or nothing and so they had to go with nothing.

Senate votes for the Ukraine, Israel, INDOPACOM, etc Aid Bill. Quick analysis: when McConnell, Grassley, Cornyn, Thune vote for something and Bernie votes against it, it must be a decent bill. Now, if the House sinks this, it will be because someone who is not the current President but presumes to be veto'd it. I'm not sure that's what the founders intended.

I'll admit that at first news of this interview my initial inclination was to be disgusted with Tuck. However, I know think it was at least useful to the US and Western world's intelligence agencies to gain just a bit more clarity on Putin's intentions going forward. Additionally, now the US knows with a bit more clarity what it will take to get the journalist and Whelan freed (nothing short of turning over a few ne'er do wells we have jailed to which I say let them have them as we've certainly turned over many of these types before). And honestly, if Tuck had secured the release of the journalist, I would have celebrated that! As for Putin's intent going foward, this snippet from ISW's summary of the interview is instructive. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev noted that Putin told the Western world in the most thorough and detailed way why Ukraine did not exist, does not exist, and will not exist.[6] Medvedev’s description of Putin’s interview further demonstrates that Russia has not abandoned its maximalist goals of eradicating Ukrainian statehood and that Putin does not intend to negotiate with Ukraine on any terms short of these goals. More assessment here: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 9, 2024 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org) If you agree with Putin's assessment that the unbroken tradition of Russian statehood dating back to the 9th Century with the modern "invention" of Ukraine - a country he insists was "created" as late as the 20th Century. Tucker Carlson interview: Fact-checking Putin's 'nonsense' history (bbc.com) is perfectly acceptable rationale for Russia to invade Ukraine and effectively install its own preferred government in place of the current one which is overwhelmingly supported by its people, then we'll have to agree to disagree.

One man's lying is another man's information warfare. Ukraine is in an existential war and using all the methods of warfare at its disposal. A more interesting discussion topic is this article. Putin won't make peace in Ukraine before 2024 US election -US official | Reuters For all the talk (led by the old football coach) about how weak the US military is these days, why would Putin have to wait until the US goes in a different direction politically?

Musing about "formal deprogramming" still doesn't quite hit the bar set by a certain former Prez musing about hanging a 4 star General, right? Now, she might be onto something concerning a few Karens out there. Start at 3:27 and let me know if you think she just needs a few prozacs and she'll go right back to being a concerned, conservative, (R) voting, and productive citizen. If you have some extra time, the YMCA rendition is quite entertaining as well.

Thought this was worthy to post for a good chuckle. The old mishandling of grenades on an aircraft mishap. Putin offered a bizarre explanation for Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death during a press conference at the Valdai Discussion Club on October 5 to deflect blame from the Kremlin. Putin stated that the Russian Investigative Committee Head Alexander Bastrykin informed him that the investigation found grenade fragments in the bodies of victims onboard Prigozhin’s plane, suggesting that grenades detonated inside the aircraft.[6] The investigative committee has reported publicly only that all 10 people aboard the plane died.[7] Putin also emphasized that the investigation ruled out external factors that may have caused the plane crash and implied that the plane crash victims may have been using alcohol or drugs onboard that could have led to the negligent handling of grenades (that were presumably on board for some unexplained reason). Putin claimed that, while the investigation did not test the bodies for alcohol and narcotics, the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) uncovered five kilograms of cocaine during their investigation into Wagner – likely referring to FSB’s televised raids into Prigozhin’s mansion in June and July 2023. Putin added that in his opinion the investigation needs to test the bodies for substances. Putin’s bizarre explanation of the plane crash is likely an attempt to blame Prigozhin for his own and his comrades’ deaths and further disgrace him among his remaining supporters. Source: Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

We've all made our share of bad choices after our heyday. Former Navy SEAL who said he killed Osama bin Laden arrested in Frisco (dallasnews.com)

Donald Trump Has No Chance of Ever Becoming President Again - 19FortyFive If you really don't want Biden to get a second term, heed this article and find a better GOP nominee and do your part to get that person nominated.

Republican debate: Chris Christie was the biggest surprise of the event | Washington Examiner Don't sleep on Christie. Sure, he's no Ronnie Reagan. But, a former Gov of a blue state. Check. Think about it in terms of the general election. He might even win some blue states (New Jersey...duh!) but maybe some of your purples (your Georgia's, Nevada's, Wisconsin's) that are going to decide it. Personally, I think if you go DJT or any of his culture warrior clones then you spook the swing voters (see 2020, 2022 midterms, many other local elections, etc).

Going to be interesting to see how the Wagner Group moves forward (assuming it was actually him on that plane). Reportedly with his #2 on board as well, hopefully it ceases to exist as a functional organization. I imagine there are a few questions in Africa right now seeing as he seemingly was just there. On the surface an easy call for Putin, but he must have some real heartburn in terms of how effective Wagner was in many a Russian foreign adventure. The ISW's analysis is interesting... Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 24, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

A wise CC of mine always said there are always three sides to every story. In that perspective, here are my thoughts: After reading the report to congress: US-Withdrawal-from-Afghanistan.pdf (whitehouse.gov) For the unclassified version, IMHO, it is a thoughtful look and after action report on what went right and what went wrong and what they have applied to similar scenarios subsequent to the withdrawal (Ethiopia and Ukraine). I think as long as you're not trying to win some political argument out of it by cherry picking a few things to write a short article with a catchy headline then there are some valid takeaways that hopefully congress will dive into during the AFGHANISTAN WAR COMMISSION So, just reading the headlines, from any of the media outlets is not going to do it justice. Watched and read what Kirby actually said about being proud: "Just because the mission changed over time, under previous administration and leadership and scenarios, doesn't mean that anybody who served in Afghanistan doesn't have something to be proud of doesn't have, doesn't have, --sorry -- doesn't have service to this country that they can take with them the rest of their lives and feel honorable about it," he said. (he breaks up a bit at the "doesn't have --sorry" part which I do believe was an honest reaction to him thinking about some of his service or peers who served and possibly were lost in the war.) White House official is asked why Biden admin taking no responsibility for Afghanistan debacle | Fox News Video “The president is very proud about the manner in which the men and women of the military, the foreign service, the intelligence community and on and on and on conducted this withdrawal,” he said. “I’ve been around operations my entire life and there’s not a single one that ever goes perfectly according to plan.” Doocy continued to push back saying, “There were children being killed. There were people hanging off of Air Force jets that were leaving and you’re saying that you guys are proud of the way this mission was conducted? Of that?” Kirby said: “Proud of the fact that we got more than 124,000 people safely out of Afghanistan? You bet. Proud of the fact that American troops were able to seize control of a defunct airport and get it operational in 48 hours? You bet. Proud of the fact that we now have about 100,000 afghans our former allies and partners living in this country and working toward citizenship? You bet.” “But does that mean everything went perfect in that evacuation? Of course not,” he said. He later added, “Nobody is saying that everything is perfect but there was a lot that went right and a lot of Afghans are now living better lives in this country and other countries around the world because of the sacrifices and the work of so many American government officials. So yeah, there’s a lot to be proud of, Peter.” I certainly hope that any of us who served in Afghanistan, supported it from afar, or supported any of the execution of the withdrawal are proud of what we did and agree that we would hope an administration would be proud of us. If we are directed to do a military operation and it fails or goes poorly at no fault of our own (the enemy has a say as Kirby acknowledged), I certainly want to be supported afterwards. As for the media outlets coverage (which surely most Americans aren't looking at considering the other shiny objects floating around these days): I thought this one was about as close to the "third side of the story" as they can get... Biden admin acknowledges mistakes in Afghanistan exit but defends decision to leave (msn.com)

Any confirmation the Russian pilot said "too close for missiles, switching to fuel" and if in the debrief the other pilot whispered to him "gutsiest move I ever saw Sergey"?

The war that keeps on providing some pleasant surprises. Going to make using airfields in Belarus a bit more dicey. And, it happens while Lukashenko is in China and just about to start meetings there to boot! Seems like it was very well timed by the "rebels".

Air interdiction done dirt cheap. Interesting to see the evolution of these systems after seeing the development of them as a threat to aircraft on the ground at the various locations in bad guy land.

A bit of a distraction from the POTUS visit back and forth: I found this an interesting read both in terms of some analysis of the past Russian Military failures so far and prognosis going forward. Some highlights on how the huge convoy north of Kyiv came to be are the use of maps from the 60's and 70's for land navigation, carrying maps showing the plan in metal boxes labeled secret, and having the wrong tires on the vehicles for the season. How Russia's 35-mile armoured convoy ended in failure - BBC News Going forward, it may seem logical to think that Russia still has plenty of "mass" to pour into this that will eventually overwhelm the Ukrainian forces. A counterpoint to this is that the Lend-Lease program in WW2 was a big reason why the Soviets won (even Stalin and Krushchev seemed to agree). 'We Would Have Lost': Did U.S. Lend-Lease Aid Tip The Balance In Soviet Fight Against Nazi Germany? (rferl.org)

Signs that the air component of your invasion isn't going so well. Exhibit A: 63-year old 2 star gets shot down. Who is Kanamat Botashev? Russia's Highest Ranking Airforce Commander Killed (msn.com)

It's wild seeing this play out with a new and evolving type of threat that we are still attempting to deal with. I remember that time downrange when we would deploy SF troops around the aircraft for Counter UAS ops during EROs. Of course, one time they ended up shooting at our own UAS.

Would not have predicted this prior to Feb 24. "Ukraine has won the Battle of Kyiv". Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 3 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org) Got to give a shout out to any California and Florida (and any others) Guardsman who participated in the SPP and other events through the years and up until the invasion. CHEERS!