There have been some reductions in non-test flying (flying done to maintain currency or for upgrades), but the DT&E budget is different from CAF FHPs. They already reduced the class size from 24 to 20 starting with 13A. This was done largely because the throughput in many ways exceeded capacity. However, with the current budget issues, I would not be surprised if this continues as opposed to going back to 24 like there was a rumor of after 2-3 classes.
Regarding the change to the AFI: even though the old version stated the TAFCS was 10.25 years, the last 3-4 boards all had the same restriction as the current AFI (the AFI revision process just took a while to catch up to reflect this reality). There is no published success rate. I can tell you that in my class, about half of the pilots were over the TAFCS limit, but that changes from year to year based on upcoming DT programs and the types of pilots they desire. Furthermore, it's not uncommon to have to apply more than once to get in.
It really depends on what you fly. I know of one guy who was an alternate one year, then the next was denied a waiver for TAFCS. I surmise it was largely due to having enough heavy pilots apply. Generally, being an alternate one year can be viewed as a stepping stone to getting in the next.