ImNotARobot

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2022/09/23/fedex-fdx-q1-2023-earnings-call-transcript/ Was waiting for proper earnings call to respond here. A few thoughts from an uninformed cog in the Purple Machine - While UPS continues to fiddle amid the inflationary flames, FDX has sounded the alarm. I honestly do not think the earnings call is directed at the pilot contract negotiations. The pilot group's inflated sense of self importance may disagree, but the truth is told in the 10-Q filing. Express is certainly being targeted for cost savings (which will be manifested in reducing certain routes and parking the MD-10s), but any apocalyptic pearl clutching for the future of the pilot group is unfounded. The global economy is slowing; we are taking aggressive action. And I don't think FedEx Corp has perfectly executed the COVID surge and now the post-COVID drawdown (plus inflation!), but all these mega-corps are reacting to the market in different ways. So, is UPS simply ignoring the economy, or are they a better managed organization? They sure are taking a victory lap right now. The parable of the grasshopper and the ant comes to mind here. Bullet points that jumped out at me: - FDX expecting low volume through EOY - Flight hour cut: 11% pan-Pacific, 9% trans-Atlantic, 17% Asia to Europe - Asia economy decline seems to be the major driver, Europe to a lesser degree - The most shocking number to me - Express adjusted operating income declined 72%. I thought there was a decimal missing. That seems impossible, but then it would make sense that Express would be the primary target for cost savings given the lower demand for air freight in August and beyond. As Raj mentioned in the Q&A, "You can't build half a building". We've stood up a robust flight schedule/hiring to support COVID volume, and now it takes time to draw that down to inflationary reality. - All questions about problems at Ground were largely deflected by management during Q&A. I think FDX is happy individually negotiating with Ground contractors. Corps don't favor unions obviously, so I laughed when the reporter insinuated that UPS is "better" with unionized trucking. UPS would smite that union from existence if they could. - interesting to me that FY25 targets remain hopeful. Overall message here - short term pain to adjust to inflationary reality, so long term targets will still be met. Or it could simply be waiting through next presidential election cycle. - The second most shocking number - FDX Freight producing almost 4x the operating income of Express? Wow, I had no idea that the dropoff in air freight demand was that prolific. I've always understood the concept that Express was higher yield per package than Ground, but Ground did more volume (and therefore more income) for FedEx. But damn, Freight is leading the way. - Finally, Raj was asked about pilot furlough. "And there is also no furlough of the pilots. That's not even a thing." Is FedEx better than UPS? It's a false dichotomy. Each company has drawbacks. I was pleased when FDX cut AMZ in June 2019; the low yield/high volume vine was choking the logistical tree. I don't like UPS's position with 12%+ involvement with AMZ; those pallets of cheap chinesium garbage are blocking other high end customers (opportunity cost). I don't think AMZ will necessarily going to strangle UPS, but that AMZ gorilla must be managed going forward. It sure looks like UPS is deaf to global economic trends currently, but I'm sure they will make adjustments when necessary. Just because FDX is the first to ring alarm bells does not mean FDX is smart; just because UPS is still ops normal for another quarter does not mean they are dumb. Global economies are more nuanced than an easy sound bite can portray. Air freight will survive and thrive despite a week of negative news. And historically, air freight is a much more stable career for pilots. That's not a FDX-specific observation; that's the industry as a whole. Delta went from the most profitable airline in history (Feb 2020) directly into COVID the following month. That level of turbulence is quite stressful...compared with the known post-COVID air cargo drawdown, I'd personally take my chances on the cargo side. But I wear my bias on my sleeve. Anyway, one bored pilot's thoughts.

Reminds me of my favorite quote from Starship Troopers - So what is this so called “Federal Service”? Parasitism, pure & simple. A functionless organ, utterly obsolete, living on the taxpayers. A decidedly expensive way for inferior people, who otherwise would be unemployed, to live at public expense for a term of years, and give themselves airs for the rest of their lives.

https:// https://news.yahoo.com/military-investigating-possible-dysfunction-texas-152330084.html

FedEx v UPS Unless you find someone who has worked at both, realize you are going to get a biased perspective for each job. This is just one pilot's perspective, YMMV. I agree with the assertion that Memphis is an absolute warzone, unfit for raising a family, much less safely getting to work. 100% no-go for in-domicile living; it's just a place I endure until training is over. When I'm turning through Memphis, I'm staying at the hub in a sleep room for a few hours. I've heard from both company and union that 70% of FedEx pilots are commuters. The reasons for that are not only the horrific daily violence in Memphis, but it's the trip construction that allows ease of commuting. The 777 on one end is the extreme international-only option, usually one large trip, meaning one commute to work per month. On the other end is the 757, with potential for many small day-long trips, multiple blocks of off time, requiring multiple commutes to domicile. The MD/76/Bus are somewhere in the middle. Commuting into either FDX/UPS is a totally different animal than the pax world. At FedEx, there is no seniority booking of jumpseats (JS). The jumpseat is YOURS if you book it. When I attempt to select a JS that is full, I have no idea whether it's filled with JetBlue pilots or FedEx pilots. It honestly doesn't matter...those pilots have been guaranteed a ride to work/home. The mitigation: FedEx pilots are able to book the JS 3 weeks out; all offline JSers only get the week prior. So we have the opportunity to book anything we want before it fills up. It's location dependent, but generally speaking, FDX JSs are not that difficult to book on a regular basis. There are a few hot spots, like Seattle, Denver, South Florida (where rich airline Capts live) that are more difficult, but certainly not impossible. I also agree with Prozac WRT to UPS weekend JSs. After the last sort on Saturday morning, there is a huge deadzone for jumpseats until the Mon night sort. So the opportunity to weekend commute in jeans/tennis shoes on FDX is near zero depending on location. But that is only one way to commute to work. We also have a travel bank system for deadheads (DH). To clarify, a DH is a positioning/depositioning leg on another airline (wearing business casual v jeans/tennis shoes). A jumpseat is when I book myself on FDX to travel. There have been some exceptions to this during COVID, but let's not digress into irrelevancies. So hypothetically, I'm MEM-based, but I live in random city XYZ. On paper for pay, all my trips must begin/end in domicile. It's entirely possible that the revenue legs for my trip are cities (ABC-DEF-MEM-DEF-GHI). But the trip on paper will look like (MEM-all the cities with rev legs-MEM). So commuters "deviate" each end of that trip. Meaning I'm not going to MEM simply to take Delta from MEM to city ABC where my trip starts. Published in the pairing (pairing=trip) is the actual cost of that Delta ticket, paid by FedEx. If I deviate that leg, telling FedEx that I'm not going to be on that Delta flight, the cost of that ticket is deposited in my travel bank. This money was real when FedEx was going to pay Delta, but it will never be paid to me outright. I can use this money to book air or ground transportation from any city to get to city ABC where my trip starts. You can book on any airline you choose, or even a limo service to have a Cadillac show up in your driveway to take you to work if your travel bank allows it. Once some seniority is realized, a pilot can potentially bid hometown lines...living in city XYZ, and bidding trips that operate XYZ-ABC-DEF-XYZ. This pilot will be at home in XYZ, being paid for the layover on each end of the trip. I know this sounds confusing, but once you're living it, it makes a lot of sense. It's a highly flexible position for the pilot. There are some rules on when you can spend the travel bank (within 3 days of a trip), and the money can expire too. Here's one to really bake your noodle. Let's say I've saved up $10k in my travel bank, and my wife and I are going to Paris. As long as I have a FedEx trip within 3 days of my personal travel to Paris, I can spend that $10k on PERSONAL TRAVEL that is not affiliated with the FedEx trip at all. So I can spend my airline miles to get her into business class, and I can outright buy my business class ticket with FedEx money. All perfectly legal. That's another thing I forgot to mention, airline status. When FedEx is buying all these tickets on Delta/American/United/Foreign carriers/etc, my personal frequent flyer number is automatically linked to that ticket purchase. Any intl leg over 2.5h block must be in business/first, and 5h block sequence domestically must be booked in first. So to the airline, it looks like I'm the big spender, accruing points at a fantastic rate. Because I am. 🙂 PreF, I gather you're going to live in the southern half of Indiana...that makes the domicile choice between FDX IND and UPS SDF a literal coin flip. You can drive to either of them. I wouldn't consider that a variable. IND is FedEx's #2 domestic hub, where every airplane is represented with IND DHs. After about the first year, you'll be off reserve and able to bid a fair amount (if not all) IND DHs. So you'd be MEM on paper but actually driving to/from IND as I described above with city XYZ. That's a quick primer on commuting at FedEx. WRT to your other concern, Fred Smith vs Raj, everything I know about Raj so far--he's a fireplug who isn't waiting for a handout. There is a reason Fred chose him to nurture his baby. Only time will tell, but I haven't heard anything about Raj that gives me pause. And when you talk about culture, FedEx had some of the worst culture in the industry in the 80s/90s--crashing airplanes because the d!ickhead Capt was king. Thankfully that culture has become more CRM-centric. There are always a few turds in every punchbowl, but that's not FedEx-specific. Nine of of ten Capts are just older versions of myself, which is terrifying enough! Go with questions.

Best race since Abu Dhabi.

FedEx negotiations - no different than the standard industry-wide teeth gnashing. A very vocal minority complaining on Airline Pilot Central, about 12 angry men just screaming at each other, mostly about personal issues, and mostly without ever providing a real solution. Standard internet board chaff. We're just over a year into negotiations. Both company and union say mean things about each other. It's business, it's not personal. Most guys are just flying their line, and there are a few that will again make over $1M for the 3rd year in a row. I still can't control what other people do in life. Oh well. No credible rumors about pay rates and work rules yet. If we're lucky, we'll see a TA before peak. If the historical 2+ year timeline holds, we'll see a TA in the spring. Unclear which timeline we're on. Union/company politics are just as draining as normal governmental politics if you let the evil in. I've found that keeping the bull$hit at arm's length is effective mitigation...just fly the line like cog that I am, then go home to hang out with my favorite people on the planet. From my seat, FedEx is still the best job in aviation There's beauty in being a cog. A well paid cog, but a cog nonetheless.

This the the play…and the irony here is so sweet. Dropping mil on a GS job while accruing seniority at a major. Although no type rating, all flying time after initial qual is PIC/IP, in a mil aircraft selectable on every major airline app. All the USAF could say…”Thank you for your service”

Quoted again for posterity.

I also think this year's cars are cool as hell. Haters gonna hate. But what's COOLER? Lewis getting knocked out in Q1. The weekend is already a success.

Follow-up - DAV was a massive disappointment. I was rowing my own boat for every aspect of the last five months awaiting a VA decision. I went through my own records, took my own notes -- which I still HIGHLY recommend. But when I showed at DAV, thinking mine was just the initial hack, my records were pushed back across the table. "We don't look at your records, you know your records best; you just tell us what you want to file." Literally no one other than myself has evaluated my records. It didn't help that my general impression of the DAV Army vet across the table was a standard govt slug, just punching the clock. He functioned simply as a heartbeat attached to a keyboard, inputting exactly what my ignorant self "discovered" in my medical records. He typed the few conditions into the computer, and that was it. Did I miss anything? Am I doing this right? I have no idea. When I called/emailed DAV over the last five months, I was given a boilerplate response via email or call. Nothing was refined or personalized. As with every govt process I've ever experienced, I'm rowing my own boat. As with all other govt offices in my career, if I happen to run into a star performer, I can get excellent service from the MDG/MPF/VSO. But I cannot in good faith ever recommend the DAV to any other vet. The absolute minimum was accomplished, leaving me asking...what have I missed? What do I not understand about the process? Now looking into having a non-VSO (paid) service evaluate my records. Definitely not looking to play up an injury, or be told what to say. I just want what I'm owed from my years of service. And after the DAV got done with me, I'm not even sure the initial claims were done correctly. If I'm told that I did everything correctly, I'd be shocked. But just knowing that I've correctly participated in the process is what I want. I will go into the next phase with zero expectations of any improvement, just needed an expert evaluation on my records. Anyone have experience with https://www.reemedical.com/? Looks like a $2k flat fee for their services. PS. The trending I've noticed with peers regarding VA disability...everyone is willing to help/share their personal path, UNTIL they get a % from the VA. Then total silence. Guys feel embarrassed about getting disability when they aren't in a wheelchair. I do not think this is the correct mentality. The VA is a standard govt entity...broken in some respects, inefficient is all respects. And intimidating to deal with, since I don't speak their language. But if a mechanism exists to be compensated for medical conditions we've accumulated over decades of service/deployments, I say let that dog hunt.

Cargo more difficult to land? Maybe that's true, but it's a numbers game. Each of the Big 3+1 pax carriers have at least 10,000 pilots (correct me pax pilots). FedEx has 5500 pilots, and UPS has...3000? So there is exclusivity simply based on the size of the pilot group. It also doesn't help that FDX/UPS have maybe the most esoteric and antiquated hiring processes. While the pax carriers have shortened their respective HR processes and lowered hiring requirements, the big 2 cargo outfits have remained stubbornly rooting in past practices. Only in the last couple weeks has FedEx changed to virtual day 1 testing, then in person interview for day 2. While 500 TPIC is the published requirement for FedEx (down from 1000 TPIC), Delta etc is hiring a few guys with 0 TPIC. All those trends aside, don't undersell the value of your pedigree as a 20-year military pilot. As stated here, YOU are the target demo for all these HR departments. 20ish years of flying, upgrades, total hours of world-wide flying, etc. They already know the leadership piece is baked into normal military career progression. I hate to repeat what's already been said...that's why most of the time I just STFU on here. But cast a wide net with apps. If you'd be genuinely happy to receive an interview invite from a company, then put that in your top tier. If you could survive at a company while waiting for your top tier, then there's your bottom tier. You don't have a math problem to solve until you've been hired by two airlines. Until then, the decision is simple. You take the first job and grind it out. But it shouldn't be much of a grind if you CHOSE to put in an app. There are a few places that you probably already know are not compatible with your location/family/preferences. All these airlines have pluses/minuses. There is not one clear winner for every pilot. My personal line in the sand is dealing with FAs/pax. I turned down a Delta interview after being hired at FedEx after years of maintaining 7 airlines apps. Guys in my military unit thought I was nuts...mostly pax airlines being represented there. Those guys aren't crazy for loving DAL/UAL/AAL/SWA either. Those are great jobs! Just didn't crack my top tier of Purple/Brown. The subjective trash/treasure concept applies here. Every pilot wants to beat their chest about why their personal decision to go with airline X is DEFINITELY the best job...and it's not totally BS, but a validation of their pick. Nobody says "I'm a below average pilot and a crap interviewer, and I'm settling for Airline Y". You're going to end up somewhere awesome...just don't know where yet. And once your own eyeball sees how Airline X is run, you'll know if it's your final job or not. Sorry for stream of consciousnesses. Best of luck Tac Airlifter and all pilots in this decision region. Once you break free of the welfare mentality of the military, you'll see a massive QoL increase. We're all rooting for you!

“treat your ADSC contract like you work for the best paid regional airline, and a lot of this lamenting is self-limiting. If you pursue an extension of your one-sided contract, do so with eyes wide open.” What a prolific analogy. Excellent work.

FedEx update for planning: The attached posting, System Bid 21-01, is being published to fill 724 widebody CAP vacancies, 65 narrowbody CAP vacancies, 635 widebody F/O vacancies and 209 narrowbody F/O vacancies. System Bid 21-01 opens today, Tuesday, November 16th and will close at 1500z on Tuesday, November 30th. System Bid 21-01 is based on the current projected system lift requirements. As the Operation continues to adapt to the current business environment, there remains the possibility for further adjustments. In the meantime, the bid reflects the following considerations: Anticipated pilot retirements and system form adjustments (system-wide pilot retirements are projected to continue at roughly 150-200 per year) Scheduled aircraft deliveries and retirements (see Fleet Plan below) Expanded International flying on B777 Hiring This bid will create unfilled vacancies in most widebody aircraft that will allow new hires to be spread over multiple equipment types. Pilots holding First Officer awards requiring ITU training, most likely, will not attend class until late 2022, at the earliest, as we continue to train new hires. With a need of 1,492 pilots over the next 24 months, the opportunities to advance in seniority and/or seat position should be readily apparent. Domicile Plans HKG base will close. We plan on having all pilots and their families out of Hong Kong as soon as reasonably possible. OAK will absorb the HKG base flying and will be mostly APAC flying. The Pacific ETOPS route will move to OAK in late 2022. IND will grow by 44 Captains and 41 First Officers. Part of the growth assumes moving the following cities, Bogota, Columbia (BOG), Medellin, Columbia (MDE), Queretaro, Mexico (QRO) and Toluca, Mexico to the IND bid pack. The MEM B767 base will grow by 201 Captains and 75 First Officers. No significant system form changes are planned on the MD11. The majority of these vacancies are for retirements and unfilled vacancies from the last bid. The ANC MD11 base will add 14 Captains and 12 First Officers. The LAX MD11 base will add 8 Captains and 15 First Officers. The MEM MD11 base will add 87 Captains and 160 First Officers. The remaining 12 MD10-30’s will all be retired by the end of CY2022. No significant changes are planned for the Airbus. 81 Captains and 75 First officers will be added. ANC B777 will grow by 20 Captains and 30 First Officers and MEM B777 will add 180 Captains and 145 First Officers. EUR B757 will be adding 40 Captains and 35 First Officers in anticipation of pilots leaving the base when their max duration is up and for system form changes. Please see the 21-01 System Bid Q & A for additional information on these system form changes. MEM B757 will add 25 Captains and 174 First Officers.

Fvcking power move APA. https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-pilots-reject-extra-holiday-pay/ I stink at URLs.

ing power move APA. LOVE IT. https://onemileatatime.com/news/american-airlines-pilots-reject-extra-holiday-pay/