FLEA

Ukraine is not a full member of NATO and likely never will be. It fails to meet some important steps for membership including contiguous and secure borders. (The disputes over Crimea/other areas of Ukraine prevent it from upholding that criteria and Russia knows it's in its best interest to flare new incursions to keep that on a slow boil. ) Ukraine is a lost cause for the West. Russia has more at stake including the fact that Russians trace their ethnic ancestry to the Ukraine making it a culturally important place for Russian control. We may dislike it but here's the thing: Russia is concerned with history. And while we see them as aggressive post WW2, they see the opposite. Russia has unfavorable terrain on its western borders and Europe has used that to invade Russia several times, including Hitler, Napolean and others. Russia does not trust the West because every time they've tried, large European states parked an Army on the Eurasian plane. This stretch of land is incredibly hard for Russia to defend and they want as much of a barrier to avoid fighting there as possible. Where the Ukraine discussion is important is other Baltic States. Russia's westward expansion had your three Baltic NATO members on edge. A recent report completed by (I think RAND) concluded that Russia could take all three capitals within 72 hours before allies have a chance to respond. This changes the flavor of the conflict from a defensive one to an offensive one; trying to liberate fortified territory. We also know Putin's aggressions ions are predictable. He uses foreign conflict when their domestic economy suffers to take focus off a failing work force. With COVID wreaking havoc as it is, it's unsurprising that Putin is looking for some adventurism. Another thing to consider too. What's scarier? A strong beligererant Russia, or a weak unstable one? The amount of nuclear weapons they have arsenaled makes both a dangerous threat. The Russia problem is probably one of the most complex in the world. Edit: just reread this and holy crap I'm going to blame autocorrect.

All this is true. There are as something to be said about stretching your legs from locals in the cbus area to suddenly going to unfamiliar fields on the other side of the country, in more inclement weather, etc... They are removing a vital stepping stone in the growth and progression of young heavy pilots.

If anything you more-so make the argument we just shouldn't be using FAIPs in phase 3. I don't know the T-1, I went to Corpus, but the multi-setvice MWS expereinced cadre there was phenomenal at developing basic airmanship concepts that you might consider apart of CRM.

Some important questions I've been asking that I have not received answers on: 1.) If 75-85% of the population needs inoculated to achieve herd immunity, how will we achieve it when 25% of the population is inellegible for vaccination due to age? 2.) If herd immunity relies on depriving a virus of eligible hosts of which to infect, how will we achieve it if even after vaccination a person remains an eligible host, albeit with vastly reduced symptoms?

That name better come with an epic porn stache.

This is major issue in my opinion. Assuming you are in EUCOM where we are being told we are the lowest priority for DoD doses despite having the highest incidence rate outside the US, and the most severe lockdown restrictions world wide. As you said, we have military couples who can't work to take care of their kids, people who can deploy due to ROMs upon returning from routine TDYs and people who can't take leave or are spending money due to the way quarantines are formatted and mandated in some countries. It's a complete cluster.

Mass is a principle of war the AF completely forgot in it's crazed technophelia. 100% agree with you.

I don't know. I've spent a bit of time looking at China's COAs. Sea states on the taiwan straights are very poor to support amphibious operations. Additionally, the island only had one beach head that is acceptable. Taiwan basically knows where and when China will land and they will have months of preparation because China can't stage an amphibious force large enough to meet a 3-to-1 force ratio without providing significant I&W. China's Navy is also not built for amphibious ops and they don't have enough assault craft to meet the force ratio as well. They will need to sequester a civil fleet which isn't ideal to undergo those types of operations. Additionally, the PLAAF doesn't have enough suitable airfields within an adequate logistical distance to Taiwan to support a full blown air campaign, though they will likely still have a numerical advantage. The straight is ideal terrain for Taiwan and is easily defensible via mining. The beachhead will be mined, trenched, and bunkered. It's going to be a blood bath and both sides will take heavy losses. For Taiwan this won't halt momentum because they have the homeland morale advantage. The problem for China is they won't be able to conceal those heavy losses long and their population is generally war adverse. The state media machine isn't strong enough to overcome Taiwan's significant information operations branch, which exploits Chinese culture and values better than a western operation of the same type. Your average citizen in China does not see an overt benefit to holding Taiwan and as the war dead pile up, China will face the same problem every other modern empire faces with waning political support detracting CCP focus from the actual battle. For generations people have been told that China could easily take Taiwan, once the realization sets in that it's not that possible, there will be huge fallout for the party. If given 10 oppurtunities to stage an invasion, I think China would win 6 of them. But those odds arent nearly enough to risk it. Just my 2c.

Definitely your second scenario. Quite a few finance and A1 types from HAF piped in to clarify it on a FB group I followed for a bit. There is rumors that they will extend a second SLA for next year but they are waiting to see what happens this year. Personally, most of Europe still can't take leave outside their immediate local area. So they really need a second SLA or they are going to watch a lot of leave get burnt this summer as people hoard it in hopes that travel opens.

I don't think China has high enough probabilities for success right now to really risk it. Taiwan is much much smaller but MUCH MUCH better prepared and has only had to focus their defense on a linear threat where-as China's massive conscript Army is focused on multiple geopolitical goals. This is without support from the US or other Asian partners.

I think it's typically worded as 100% promotion opportunity, based on them being "fully qualified" (i.e. no legal trouble) for 1LT and Capt. Remember also promotion oppurtunity is based on the # IPZ in that particular year. If there are a few APZ then the board will not promote a few IPZ if they can justify some of the APZ possessing more promotion potential than the bottom of the IPZ.

Yeah but in other news, this is floating on facebook today:

They asked for 60K. I believe the house offered 48K but only 35K passed the senate.

I'm not questioning your knowledge, just your dogma. I can jam a TACAN/VOR/ILS and anything you would use for a self contained approach as well. I could also just destroy most ground stations with guided artillery fire. There's also that nasty bit about acquisition and installation. What day of the war is that going to happen on? How is your ATSP 400 nm in country getting fed to that point? If the AF would have got on board with this 15 years ago when they should have, they would know there are mitigation technologies available to that, many of which we are already fielding in different enterprises. Is it a one size fits all solution? No, but it's a tool in the tool kit, and that makes it tactically important.

It's total dumbassery and it's likely going to cause the 11R community to topple. While on paper they are manned 120%, when you really examine the #'s all of that manning is copilots. The community has been overtasked to support RPAs and UPT and their expereinced dudes don't want to go back, so they get out. This is only going to exasperate that drain from the top end. The $$$ isn't as important as the perceived slap to the face, especially when so many volunteered to retrain as 11M or 11S bit were denied due to manning.

It takes 15 minutes to TERPS a GPS approach. It can all be done remotely by your MAJCOM. The only thing they cant do is test flight it, but guess what.... There's even waivers for that.

What boggles my mind is why we aren't 100% in on GPS. It has so much tactical potential to get into places and go to places that are not TERPS'd/charted/etc...

Problem is he is right. The AF doesn't care about those outside the top 25% or so. Only the top 15% will go to school and very few other people will command. The r ality is the AF doesn't need you to stay past major. They need a pilot, so they offer a bonus (unless your an 11R). But as an officer, if you aren't on track to command, you don't really offer a lot of value to the organization. So the best think you can do for you own sanity is determine early on if command is important to you or not. If it's not, divorce yourself from the strat/careerism game as early as possible and don't worry about impressing people with you superior christmas party planning skills. Come to work to fly and try to do little else. If you aren't a complete dirt bag, and check your boxes, you will still make Lt Col and retire, making the same pay as everyone else.

No, the manning is terrible in 11R. I'm positive because I've asked 69 times to cross train and was told no due to manning. Also I asked to palace chase and was told no due to manning. There must be a mistake here?!?!! Or AFPC is just completely fucked.

I was asking this too. I definitely remember using RNAV cross country. Maybe he meant certain RNP operations?

So this is bizarre. This dude is forced to work for a guy that inappropriately touched his wife, should have been fired for it, and wasn't? No wonder he is shutting down any sense of morale. He probably believes the AF really is a cess pool of misogyny at this point.

Yeah. While it's shitty, I'm willing to bet it is still a lawful order. The threat COVID has to shit down an entire Wing level organization (See Capt Brett Crozier) for a period of several weeks has basically given commanders carte blanche to do as they see fit to protect their units mission from exposure.

Phizer intends to apply for full approval in April. I don't think Moderna will be far behind them. Once that happens you will likely be ordered to vaccinate.

I mean, when your plan is to stay in no matter what, why would you bother with the mundane details of how people get out? They should just be committed no matter what like you are!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/02/22/no-more-nannies-the-chinese-air-force-is-finally-training-its-fighter-pilots-to-match-the-americans/ As China works to reduce a key US air power advantage by providing pilots better training and more decentralized control, the USAF works in the opposite direction by reducing requirements to graduate training, slowly eroding the era of presumed US air dominance.