afguy123

Found the full slide deck: https://www.my.af.mil/USAF/AFP40/d/s330D98A14DFE211B014E2178A7BD03FF/Files/editorial/UFT Statistics FY 14-18.pdf And this is on the portal page: The UFT Board is tentatively scheduled to convene 14-16 Nov 18 with applications being due NLT 21 Sep 18. That is a few months earlier than this past year when applications were due in November and the board did not meet until January.

Do the people who run the board or whomever made this chart not know how to edit the y axis on an excel chart? Does whomever posted this have the full slide deck with the other rated options?

Looks like more than 76 too (edit count 84), the fact that it was altered is so disheartening for folks who weren't selected. Like what changed? Why were some people added?

Where did you get this?

Nothing yet. Strange.

Please do. If whomever gets eyes-on the list first or is willing to ask their commander would post here how many slots there were for each category, I think many of us who are less likely to hear from our own commanders, would appreciate it. I'm sure people are tired of opening this forum to find another post that doesn't provide substantial information, but I think that would.

Is everyone else still in the dark?

If you were not rated out of USAFA but are now a WSO does that mean in one of your first two AD boards you were offered that and accepted? If you don't mind sharing, what were the PCSM's during the respective years.

Well we aren't gonna find out today! Good luck to everyone tomorrow. Let's hope we either find out or they tell us early in the day that we won't be finding out...

This is the week, or so we hope. Can we get some confirmation from the board as to the likelihood that we find out this week? I'm not suggesting anyone call since they've said they don't want us to: but if anyone has/does please report what was conveyed.

What do you mean there is a lag? In 2014 and 2015, the AD slots accounted for 5.89 and 5.85% of the slots (I don't have the OTS slots but I assume the don't get that many to sway the data). Then there was the 2016 dip to 2.13%. In 2017 it rebounded to 6.60%. Using this number and a rough guess of USAFA slots using the mean of their previous four years, the initial estimate of 75 would give the AD 6.8% of the slots. That would be the highest in the past four years. 114 slots (again I think this is unreasonable, but it is what a linear regression would imply) would account for 9.99%. You originally asked for a correlation. The ROTC and AD are most highly correlated at .76. AD and USAFA are next at .59. USAFA and ROTC are not correlated at all at .12. No matter what it comes down to waiting for the numbers to drop and to see if we are individually on the list.

Off the bat that looks really promising. However, the four complete years of data we have do not show a clear correlation (.76) and a relatively simple regression shows the ROTC variable not to be statistically significant (P value ~ .23) in predicting the AD variable. More data would make that conclusion more sound, but with what we have to go off of it just isn't conclusive. Nonetheless, the regression result would predict 114 pilot slots. That would be far more slots than any of us I think reasonably expect, further indicating the lack of a clear relationship between these data. Another (pessimistic) way to look at this is that there is zero sum game in terms of the capacity concerns of pilot training. If they can only accept so many and if they added ROTC slots, well then where did they take the slots from? USAFA already found out their jobs and I didn't hear about a large drop from them so I think the last source would be the AD pool. (Edited to add this last part after googling the numbers): USAFA had pilot slots of 445, 360, 345, and 386 from 2014-2017. If you add the ROTC, AD, and USAFA numbers for the last four years you get 805, 780, 772, and 912. Using the most conservative USAFA number from the last four years to estimate the amount for this year of 345 and adding to it the ROTC slots of 643 you get a total of 988. That already exceeds the maximum number of slots given out in the previous four years without giving out any to AD folks yet.

if he is not currently an active duty officer than this process is completely different

Right. But we have zero idea if those are accurate and they had the opportunity to indicate if they are, they chose not to.

I'm glad they finally posted something. But we all would have loved a hint at how it is looking this year in terms of slots. "Pushing for a 28Feb18 release with an estimated number of slots around the same as last year." At least that would make the wait easier I feel like.