Pooter

.. looks like we might actually have a deal. Credit where credit is due, Trump seems to be *slightly* less completely controlled by Israel than I previously thought. The jury is still out on if any of this holds. I have a sneaking suspicion Israel is going to start leveling Lebanon or maybe just directly attack Iran again in an effort to spoil this whole thing, but this is at least progress in the right direction. It will also be fun to watch the inevitable Levin/Shapiro/Neocon meltdown. A few weeks back they were telling us what a staggering success this all was, and now you can already see the pivot to the “we need to go back in and finish the job” narrative. I said weeks/months ago I would be happy to be proven wrong if this doesn’t turn into a multi year boondoggle. And at least for the moment it appears I was wrong, and I’m quite happy about that. I’ll still maintain this accomplished virtually nothing of strategic value and even did massive strategic harm by proving to the world Iran can gain huge negotiating power through their ability to close the strait. But at least some progress! Maybe some of our dudes will even get to start coming home.

You might be on to something here. Maybe send Ted Cruz a bottle too so he can learn the population of the country he wants other peoples kids to invade

lol now we bring up the NPT.. so would it matter at all that our BFF in this whole debacle has secret nukes and isn’t a signatory? Or do we just invoke international law when it’s convenient? Don’t bother answering that part, it’s a rhetorical question But yes, agreed Iran has done shady stuff and lied and violated agreements. I don’t really count random security council resolutions as agreements though.. they’re pee pee schwacks delivered from an external organization. But yes they have also violated things they agreed to. The reason we “hang our hat” on the JCPOA is that it was the most recent agreement and seemed to be somewhat working. IAEA said they were in compliance, and they only ramped up enrichment activities after we unilaterally pulled out of the deal in 2018. So yes Iran lies but we also randomly pull out of deals we made.. So where does that leave us? I guess if the argument is that Iran can never be trusted to adhere to anything, all this negotiating is a giant waste of time and we just need to sack up, invade the country, and topple the government.

Idk if it’s “bad negotiating” as much as it’s just “negotiating.” They’re trying to come from a position of leverage like anyone would try to do. Bad negotiating would be something like.. tearing up a deal that was being followed, surprise attacking a country twice during subsequent talks, then launching a war, then floundering to get back to some semblance of the deal you already had. But back on the stalling tactic.. the IRGC sees every day that goes by as more leverage for them, because Trump clearly wants out, the economic pressures on us are also growing, and I don’t think the IRGC really cares how destitute and economically ruined their country ends up. So they wait… This concept that we were gonna wait them out was ass backwards from the very beginning. It’s funny to watch the neocons frame them on one hand as this suicidal death cult that wants to nuke everybody and then on the other hand say we’re gonna wait them out economically as if they’re responsible leaders who care what happens to their people… I’m not sure if both of those ideas jive with each other.

Not an unreasonable idea and probably the only reason why you would announce it publicly before you did it. Problem is when you’ve threatened fire and brimstone 68 times already and not followed through, it isn’t convincing on the 69th time. If it was feasible to take and hold Kharg island without big losses or at the very least putting our marines in a super compromised position, we would’ve done it already. Iran knows that and after two months of bluffs and bluster I think they see it as an empty threat. Trump is now saying the war is over, as of like an hour ago, which Iran still has not confirmed. So you guys tell me which side wants out more… And if we believe Trump that there is a deal super close (I don’t) let’s not forget about the intransigent 3rd party here who can just light up Lebanon again and fuck the whole thing away

If you have any political ambitions whatsoever, I think the smart move would be to bide your time and stay as far away from this self immolating administration as you can. If you thought Kamala trying to distance herself from Biden was rough just wait till you see how much JD and Rubio are going to have to answer for on a national debate stage if either of them ever run for president. That’s probably why there aren’t many people stepping up to take these roles other than the absolute most devoted Trump cucks. You’d have to be politically retarded or the most devout loyalist ever to think hitching your career to this wagon at this point would be a good move

At a certain point there’s not much left to say, the clown show headlines speak for themselves. Hard to tell.. are we getting off the merry go round or just speeding it up?

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-says-iran-has-taken-too-long-negotiate-will-pay-price-2026-06-10/ Weeeeee another trip on the merry go round

The swing away from Spencer Pratt was perfectly predictable and in no way indicative of systemic fraud. In person voting typically skews right and mail in voting typically skews left because (shocker) the only people who have time to go spend all day standing in line to vote on a weekday are the retirees. This artificially inflated Pratt’s lead but it was never going to hold. Or are we saying LA just magically became republican all of the sudden, and this is proof of some conspiracy?? Most of the voters in the state vote by mail and the vast majority of those people are democrats. Period. And on the subject of the homeless voter registration conspiracy.. there are 43,000 total homeless people in LA. Spencer Pratt lost to Raman by ~30,000. So either the Raman campaign managed to round up and register 75% of the homeless in LA to vote for her… or it’s just a liberal city where the people voted for the liberal

Yeah this is pretty ridiculous.. idk how you divide Christianity up that many different ways but list Islam as one umbrella rather than: Muslim - Sunni Muslim - Shia But I’d expect nothing less from the Fox News sEcWaR. Funny part is pissing off all the Mormons isn't nearly his greatest crime despite it being the one that’ll probably get him fired. Bigger problem is he’s a shameless yes man, desperate to continue his political career/influence, who will do nothing but glaze our military capabilities and strategic positioning to Trump.

Pete Hegseth invoking illegal immigration as an “invasion” during a D-day memorial speech. Keeping it classy as always

If Kamala was flip flopping on a weekly basis between threats of obliteration and promises of a perfect deal right around the corner, and then literally none of what she says happens, you guys would (rightfully) say she’d lost her mind and/or she’s flailing with zero plan. But when Trump does that exact thing it’s just “mouth and ego.” And “lol after all these years you guys still take his words at face value?” Yeah, sorry. I do take him at face value. I have this weird thing where I think the stuff POTUS says matters. And sadly I don’t have the MAGA luxury of clinging onto the parts I like while chaffing the bad parts. Maybe some more bible study could help with that technique but I digress. I’m just here trying to figure out why we need to extend the blockade and/or deny them access to fuel when Trump and his Fox News pet rock in the pentagon already said we won. The military objectives of epic fury were declared complete and the operation concluded.. or was that also part of the trump ego bluster that I don’t get because no one gave me the secret maga decoder ring?

Should we be willing to endure WW2 levels of hardship over Iran? I get it.. the new generation are of course all worthless pussies if they won’t go along with every single war but why does it follow that any of us should sacrifice to the level of WW2? Edit: larger question for the group.. I was reliably informed weeks ago by everyone from POTUS, to SECWAR, to commenters in this thread that we already devastated Iran’s military, achieved our military objectives, and had them on the ropes desperate to agree to our terms. The long term boondoggle I warned about was not only averted but I was stupid for even worrying about it. So why the change? Why do we need to deny their military fuel if it’s already decimated. Why do we need to “take all their money” if we’ve already got them completely cornered as far as negotiations

Yeah.. not holding my breath

Great analysis. Your friend writes well and seems genuinely strategically savvy.. most notably in that he avoids saying the quiet part out loud: “Conclusion The central question was never whether Gaza was a challenging environment. Nor was it whether Hamas posed a serious threat, employed tunnels, took hostages, fired rockets, or embedded itself among civilians. All of that is true. The question was whether those conditions compelled the methods chosen — or whether they were invoked to justify choices that were poorly aligned with Israel’s own stated objectives.” He (smartly) doesn’t mention the clear “unstated” objective: to completely evict the Palestinians from the area. Once evaluated by that criteria suddenly everything starts to make perfect sense.

Ultimately we just won’t have the airframes. As we’ve done now for the last few dozen acquisition programs we’re going to build the absolute bare minimum number of T-7s and then ponder, along with the great mysteries of the universe, why small fleet dynamics are once again biting us in the ass. Vipers were built in big numbers for their time and ludicrous numbers by today’s standards. Meaning.. they’re some of the most maintainable aircraft we have, and because of that, very low impact on the force to use to run a demo team.

I don’t think you’re far off here, just that the players are reversed. Someone is definitely stalling and it isn’t Trump. Trump has signaled he’s desperate for a deal (which is why he pinky promises we’re about to get one every other day) while Iran has either rejected negotiations entirely or countered with their own maximalist demands they know are complete non-starters. The narrative that they’re desperate and that time is somehow on our side doesn’t seem to be what Iran is betting on.. at all. They see Trump searching for off-ramps, flailing in his public messaging, midterms looming, approval ratings plummeting, all while energy and commodity prices across the west continue to spike. I also think forcing Iran into more destitute conditions just enables a deeper IRGC crackdown and isn’t going to have the revolutionary effect many are hoping for.

As interesting as it is to conceptually debate whether war crimes should even exist as a category (Jesus Christ guys) I’d like to circle us back to the thread topic of Iran. We’re now on our 3rd or maybe 4th iteration of: threaten total obliteration->back off the threat->promise a super stupendous deal is right around the corner. Apparently this time the Saudis, Emiratis, and Qataris asked us to postpone so it totally wasn’t a taco (although it is hilarious these ultimatums keep coming due on tuesdays.) So I guess now our force posture is.. ready to exact total obliteration but also eagerly awaiting a perfect, amazing deal. I’m sure this new status quo will last literal dozens of hours. Honest question: is there a point here where we just be honest with ourselves and admit we’re being fucked with?

Another airline guy checking in here and honestly the only thing that makes an overnight suck is if it’s too short. I hate getting into a cool vibrant city getting put up in the airport hotel. Time for my 6900th shitty hotel burger and fries.. After staying in pretty much every major city in the country multiple times I can confidently say they’re all great. They all also have their rough parts. Use common sense and avoid the rough parts. If you can’t find a way to have a good time on an overnight in LA or SF with some of the best food and bar scenes in the country idk if you can be helped. It’s not that scary guys avoid skid row and the tenderloin and enjoy the rest of these massive awesome diverse cities. On the subject of bodily functions I’ve seen more bachelorette puke on the sidewalks of broadway, 6th, and bourbon than I have human shits in all liberal cities combined. By a factor of ten. Go have a good time and stop letting Fox News convince you these places are scary

We are all tracking October 7th = Bad But also, using AI to target low level Hamas dudes when they return to their residence based on cell data and then leveling the whole apartment complex is bad, disproportionate, and yes probably feels a lot like terrorism to the other people who lived in that building and weren’t combatants, if they survive at all. October 7th was horrible but it doesn’t give Israel a blank check to do whatever it wants for all time. I think there was significant sympathy and support for Israel immediately afterward. But we are going on 3 years since the attack, and they’ve leveled Gaza and killed tens of thousands of children. People are, rightly, starting to have an issue with it. It’s not anti-semitism to criticize IDF tactics or specific wartime policies of the Israeli government. Israel critics didn’t just start randomly multiplying in 2024/25. It is directly correlated to how egregious this war has become and the attempts to dismiss any substantive criticism of it as bigotry.

Never said it was. Genocide is a specific word with a specific meaning and I don’t think it’s applicable here. The hyperbole the far left uses on this topic very often torpedoes rational debate. But I think we are having a rational debate and we can both agree that something can be bad, even deeply immoral, without being a genocide. My point was simply that all the child deaths in Gaza aren’t 100% on Hamas because they built tunnels or launched rockets or had meetings in hospital basements. Someone still has to drop the bombs. And Israel was using AI to deliberately target family residences, never mind the rest of the people living in those buildings. That is not only not OK, I would argue It’s a form of terrorism, akin what Hamas does. If Iran was tracking IDF soldiers cell phones and TBM striking their neighborhood once they got home from work we would rightly call that terrorism. Inconvenient details like this really cloud the good guys versus bad guys narrative.

Or it could be this: Edit: Not directly related to Gaza but also in 2024, Israel remotely detonated thousands of pagers/walkie talkies which I will admit was a badass logistical and tradecraft achievement. But when you remotely blow up thousands of PED’d with no possible way of knowing where they all are/who’s around at the time the side effect is obvious. They maimed dozens of children and killed a few, and hurt/killed dozens of unrelated adults as well. I think this pretty well sums up the IDF’s level of collateral damage concern. But zooming out back to the Iran conflict I think this discussion has kinda circled back on itself. Some here like myself are trying to evaluate the actions of the US/Israel/Iran/Hamas from a neutral observer perspective to try to figure out what’s actually going on and if any of this is a good idea. Others view it as a pure good guys vs bad guys dynamic. Everything the US/Israel do is a justified response to past transgressions by the bad guys. Everything Iran/Hamas do happened in a vacuum with no historical context or justification, because they’re the bad guys and that’s just how they are. There’s not much that can be said to bridge the gap between these two viewpoints, but I have no doubt we will keep trying.

“Iran can’t have a nuke.” My issue with this stance is that it’s nothing more than a tagline. It’s not a plan, it’s an item on a wishlist. If the totally clear and not changing goal from the beginning has always been to deny Iran a nuke now and forever.. I have a few questions. First, since I guess we already established diplomacy isn’t going to work.. JCPOA sucked, was going to expire, Iran just does what they want anyway.. and since the regime always will try for a nuke and will try to reconstitute the nuke capacity they do have.. HOW do we prevent them from getting a nuke? From where I sit it would take two things: Send in a massive ground force for weeks to excavate and take the nuke material they do have Full, actual regime change or dismantlement. Not a fake regime change like the one we’re claiming we did where all the relatives and buddies of the dead guys take over and just keep doing the same thing. The next obvious question is: do we have the capability to do that? Probably yes but at a huge cost and we’d need to commit far more to the war than what is currently, including deploying a large portion of the army. The next obvious question is: do we have the political will to do it? Which I think the answer is indubitably: no. My last question is if this was always the clear goal, why wasn’t the operation pitched to the American people that way originally? Why did we go through the midnight hammer “totally obliterated” charade knowing full well bulldozers exist and reconstitution efforts would start immediately? Why was epic fury pitched as an absolutely no boots on the ground op when we knew full well eventually we’d need to go in and take the “dust?” Why is Hegseth claiming “our military objectives are complete” when the main thing this war is apparently about is still unfinished? Why are we now on the doorstep of a boots on the ground regime change war despite every neocon in existence calling skeptics “panakins” and assuring us for the last year that it wouldn’t happen? Like I warned months or maybe even a year ago in this very thread: escalations happen insidiously. No one sets out to have a years long boots on the ground regime change boondoggle and it isn’t always readily apparent when you’re walking down the path toward being in one. But here we are with no end in sight, making grand claims about what we can and cannot allow a very well armed country of 90 million people to do. If you guys think I’m missing a door #3 option I’d love to hear it.

Because allowing the enemy access open source BDA gives them more information about what capabilities we now lack or what could still be brought to bear against them