Pooter

Well well well if it isn’t the consequences of my actions https://thehill.com/newsletters/morning-report/5991665-us-pauses-iran-strikes-weapons-concerns/

100%. The only immediate appeal of a guard/res gig for someone punching from AD at their ADSC is the ability to pad a junior airline schedule to get more time at home with the family. That benefit is completely out the window if the odds are high you’ll get stuck on a combat deployment with no end date

The random callsign generator for stateside ops is the dumbest shit [On the phone with the tanker unit] “Cool we’ll see you guys at AR6969 CT1500z, what’s your callsign?” “Oh we don’t get our callsign until step” … “Well our step is before yours so I guess we’ll just show up to the track and hope we have the right guys 🤷🏻‍♂️”

My issue with all this is it’s just performative right wing macho virtue signaling. They’re also starting idiotic force shaping initiatives during a war where they’re gonna need everyone they can get. The mass exodus this Iran debacle is going to cause will be one for the history books. I’ll put my flag in the sand right now and say in 2-3 yrs there will be severe manning shortages in the military. And while the media is off deep diving on Pete’s low t initiatives that probably only apply to 5% of the force over the age of 40-45, Pete is busy misrepresenting our capabilities and progress to the president wrt the current conflict

Would love to hear what takes of mine pertaining to this war are “laughably incorrect” Is it, in no particular order: -That Israel roped us into this -Our own DNI said Iran wasn’t making a nuke prior to the start of the war -Our destruction of a non-factor navy and Air Force doesn’t amount to a strategic win -Iran was never in a weak negotiating position which is why we signed a deal favorable to them -Iran’s TBM stockpile is mostly intact and the primary tool for their power projection -The blockade of their blockade didn’t do shit -Bombing cave entrances in a country of 90 million people the size of the entire eastern US didn’t (and won't currently) accomplish shit -We did not effect regime change and in fact ended up with a more hardline one -The people did not rise up -We have depleted our interceptor and SOW munitions to an alarming level that will take years to replace -We are objectively on the back foot in other AORs that had their resources poached for this boondoggle -Trump’s apocalyptic and incoherent messaging was strategically damaging and galvanized the Iranian public against us -We fell into an escalation trap that we now cannot get out of -Still don’t have the nuke dust -Constant admin goalpost shifting about the objectives where now just getting the strait back open and un-tolled would be considered a win There ya go. Feel free to address any of them specifically and I’ll respond with well sourced arguments. But this hiding behind “you don’t know what you’re talking about” or “you’d know the real story if you were in the strat division vault” is just pathetic BS. We can all see the shitshow unfolding with our own eyes.

When you have zero coherent argument in support of this war:

Yeah we wrecked all the parts that didn’t matter in the first place but don’t tell the neocon war hawks that. They just spent the last two months circlejerking about how we obliterated a navy that was totally irrelevant and an Air Force of nothing but museum pieces. Turns out we never made much of a dent in the actual ballistic missile inventory because bombing cave entrances doesn’t destroy anything.. it just denies access to them temporarily. Anyone with half a brain cell knew from the outset that the TBM threat and ability to close the strait were always the two crucial things forming the basis for Iran’s regional power projection. Those both remain intact and will not be solved by renewed bombing. We’re now in the “more cowbell” phase of this dumb war where we’re just doing stuff that already didn’t work, with no clear end in sight. It’s just so sad no one predicted this would devolve into a directionless boondoggle

Oh and how’s that new round of bombing coming along? Oh right not a single thing has materially improved from a strategic perspective lmk when we bomb Kharg island and it fixes everything

What do you mean it doesn’t match the headline.. it’s literally in the first paragraph: “Israeli nationalists chanted “death to the Arabs”, “may your villages burn” and “Gaza is a graveyard” in a state-sponsored march through Jerusalem to mark the anniversary of the city’s capture and annexation.” We’re not the ones that made up the idiotic standard that societies should be judged by what people chant at random protests.. that was you.. a week ago: “And in ~75 years I have yet to see an Israeli street rally calling for death to the Muslims.” Well now you have seen one. And since we’re playing your stupid game, this one matters just as much as when gazans do it if you care at all (we know you don’t) about logical consistency. But I look forward to learning how this is totally different, or fake news, or something..

Anyway sorry for the thread drift. Let me know when this new round of bombing changes literally anything wrt the strategic situation around the SOH, which as a reminder, was completely open and un-tolled before this entire stupid thing started. I dream of a day where we can get back to the status quo we spent 10's of billions to detonate

Turns out you don't need to resort to asymmetric attacks and suicide bombing when you have F-35s and JDAMs and AI to tell you when "daddy's home" so you know when to flatten the whole apartment complex. And no I haven't heard a street rally of Israelis calling for death to all muslims. But I have heard Israeli leaders call the people of Gaza "human animals" who need to be totally eradicated but I'm sure you're about to explain to me how that's totally different. -Yoav Gallant (Former Defense Minister): On October 9, 2023, declared a "complete siege" and referred to Gazans as "human animals". -Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister): Invoked the biblical narrative of Amalek in a October 28, 2023 address, which some interpret as a call for total destruction. -Isaac Herzog (President): Stated on October 13, 2023, that "an entire nation" in Gaza is responsible for the actions of Hamas. -Maj. Gen. Ghassan Alian (COGAT): Stated in October 2023 that "human animals" in Gaza would face destruction. -IIRC a viral video just surfaced this week of an IDF soldier flashbanging Gazans inside a car at a traffic stop while holding the doors shut.. -Oh and there's this. "According to United Nations and UNICEF reports, at least 21,000 Palestinian children have been killed in Gaza since the war began, with some figures from humanitarian organizations and local health authorities placing the toll at roughly 20,000." No. No you don't. You judge societies based on immense and crippling pre-conceived biases and ignore the atrocities committed by "the good guys" while constantly pivoting back to "the bad guys" who no one here was defending in the first place.

Not evil and not a conspiracy. They just lobby exclusively for the interests of a foreign government in perfect lockstep with that government's policies, which I think easily rises to the definition codified by FARA requiring agencies to register if: they are acting, quote: "at the order, request, or under the direction or control" of a "foreign principal." No, Israel has massive influence for dozens of reasons, some of which I listed and only two of which you've even attempted to address. And exactly what percentage of foreign aid would be problematic? 10%? 20%? 50%? Because they're getting 1/20th when there are 180+ countries in the world so at the very least it already seems disproportionate. But it's not even just 4.7% because we pay off the other countries in the region to leave Israel alone while they go flattening gaza and starting wars with everyone, so the indirect aid they get through our bribery of everyone else is far higher. When we're 37+ trillion in debt, and devaluing our currency to be able to afford all this foreign aid, yes I am against it. All foreign aid should stop immediately and only resume once we have a solvent domestic budget. And yes I know cutting all foreign aid tomorrow would barely make a dent in the debt. But it's more the principle of spending money outside the US when we can't even fund our own stuff. It's like buying your neighbor a car when you're bankrupt. And it's especially annoying that we're robbing our own citizens to fight wars on the other side of the world on behalf of a country whose technical prowess, espionage, and military capabilities you guys can't stop glazing. Sounds like Israel is shit-hot. I believe you. Maybe they're so shit-hot they could even fight the fights they pick on their own.

Right, they’re just a run of the mill domestic lobby of totally normal Americans whose only priority is a foreign country and whose policy prescriptions are indistinguishable from the government of that country. Got it. Just normal America stuff. If we subbed Israel for any other country on earth in this scenario, your alarm bells would be rightfully going wild. Love this. I knew we were gonna play make believe. Didn’t I call it? Yes the off grid gun toting libertarian, former maga loyalist, retired army general freedom caucus chair, and the two lefty loons are all just “anti conservative.” lol that’s what they have in common and why AIPAC hates them 😂 Edit: also hilarious to describe AIPAC as a conservative group when they contribute almost equally to the left and right and in many years more toward the democrats. Anything to avoid admitting the obvious through line here is that it’s all 100% motivated by who will and won’t fully support Israel

Reading comprehension bud. I said “since its founding” (1948) but yes thank you I’m sure you can cherry pick years where a crisis temporarily spiked our foreign aid to other places more. Go look it up. It’s simply a fact, not some Pepe Silvia conspiracy. This is precisely the problem. It is a lobby thats motivated exclusively by support for a foreign government despite, yes being a “domestic” group on paper. This allows them to contribute to political races—something no other foreign lobby is allowed to do, and that is the root cause of their disproportionate influence. I know I’m slaying the sacred cow here so critical thinking is gonna be hard but let’s put our big boy pants on for a second and ask ourselves what Thomas Massie, Scott Perry, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Cori Bush, and Jamaal Bowman have in common from a policy perspective. And why would a “domestic” political lobby equally go after these people all over the political spectrum with seemingly zero policy overlap. I look forward to us pretending it’s for any reason other than the obvious

For the millionth time it isn’t about “the Jews.” It is about the government of Israel and every time you guys falsely accuse people of racism you dig the hole even deeper for yourselves. But by all means continue and let’s see how far public sentiment for Israel can crater, I doubt we’ve found the bottom yet. Just keep shouting “anti semite” like the right wing doppelgänger of a blue haired smith college student and then ponder, along with the great mysteries of the universe, why your arguments keep losing traction. I have an issue with a government. A foreign government that we give a shit ton of money to. Not a people, not a race, not an ethnic group. Full stop. My claim the government of Israel has outsized influence on our politics is based on: AIPAC not being registered as a foreign lobby, and yes being extremely influential and powerful despite there being a handful of domestic lobbying groups that are bigger Netanyahu visiting DC more than any other head of state in recent years especially in the lead up to the war Sitting US senators quoted as saying the main reason they ran for office is to be a defender of Israel Batshit dispensationalist Christians who believe it is their religious duty to support a foreign government Israel being the largest recipient of US foreign aid since its founding The legislation CURRENTLY being pushed to merge some of the US and Israeli government defense functions The fact that we have attempted to or have toppled the governments of all 7 countries listed in the Israeli clean break strategy That our welfare baby country actively defies us and sabotages our negotiations on a routine basis Campaign donations to Trump in the hundreds of millions from the Adelsons motivated entirely by Israel support (Trump admitted they won’t leave him alone about it) The sitting US ambassador to Israel endorsing the greater Israel project But yeah since the AARP is bigger than one pro Israel lobbying group probably I’m a racist and it’s all just a conspiracy. PS. Saw we’re back to bombing as of last night. I’m sure this one will do the trick

Since I clearly have to spell this out .. it began being drafted in 2020 by mostly democrats (I.e. in no way caused by russias invasion of Ukraine) before being signed into law in 2022 by the Biden admin (I.e. having nothing to do with the Trump admin) Good lord first you’re arguing the chips act was a useless Democrat knee jerk to Russia, then when I clearly disprove that, you latch on to trumps lame duck year of 2020 as the year it was drafted to somehow mentally contort yourself to give him the credit.. for the thing you didn’t even believe was proactive in the first place.. I didn’t mean for this to become a sidebar on the chips act but this is genuinely so dumb I can’t let it go. Not much point in talking about complex foreign policy issues if we can’t even come to a collective understanding on a basic order of events or who is behind a piece of legislation without you shifting your self-contradictory argument multiple times.. We get it done by ending our complete subservience to a foreign government.. I don’t expect anyone in your daughter’s daycare to know about AIPAC but a good start toward a solution might be reducing or eliminating that lobby’s influence in our politics.

Pretty sure the reason the Jan-6ers needed a pardon in the first place is because… …they were also arrested

Googles: When did the chips act start being drafted? June 2020 When did Russia invade Ukraine February 2022. But sure it was probably Covid.. because everyone’s prime concern during Covid was the microchip supply. Couldn’t possibly be that a democrat admin did a proactive domestic thing in alignment with their foreign policy. We’ve already established it’s impossible for anything smart to happen without first punching oneself in the face. More broadly speaking though, I don’t want you to get frustrated with me. I’m asking genuine questions and soaking in your points and calling out the parts I think are silly. I’m here for a friendly and lively debate and yes enjoy being the contrarian in a den of mostly aligned war hawks. I will give you your ideas have a unique flavor and honesty here and it’s not just the predictable Fox News word vomit. I admit I definitely have never heard the #GETHARD (David Goggins ™️) strategy of foreign policy strength through self-sabotage before. Regardless I look forward to monitoring the situation and debating more with you dudes

lol so in order to make smart choices we have to intervene in the hard/soft cycle by intentionally making hard times for ourselves 😂 So just to be clear we have to Intentionally be dumb in the near term to make hard times because we’re just such sober realists we’ll never make a smart choice unless absolutely forced. I’m curious, how far can we take this principle.. does it work like the dumber we are now, the harder the times we’ll create, and therefore we’ll emerge from those even harder men? Then what’s stopping us from being as dumb as possible right now? Why not nuke Kharg island, or Tehran? Why not nuke ourselves? If the goal is creating the hardest times possible so we get SUPER HARD (giggity) I can think of a lot of ways we could do that more severe and immediate than some pinpoint strikes on the other side of the world.. You can pretend we’re all naive idealists but this line of thinking is just plain dumb and falls apart when subjected the most basic critical thought. We didn’t need a global calamity to pass the chips act to revamp domestic chip manufacturing. We didn’t need global calamity for Reagan to build up the military and bankrupt the Soviet Union. In your personal life you don’t need to experience calamity to know you need to make smart decisions and plan for the future. Turns out avoiding calamity is actually a really good incentive too. We can and should expect our government to be proactive and do things that make sense without needing to shoot ourselves in the dick first.

… uh what? yes it absolutely does. What is this argument? If you piss away your stockpile which will take years to replace, you are measurably weaker, right now. Can’t believe I have to actually spell this out, but your current inventory and your ability to produce more… both matter. If current inventory was irrelevant how can we maintain a nuclear deterrent even though we haven’t built a new ICBM since 1978 and we haven’t manufactured a new nuke since 1992. We can literally do all of this without needing to bomb Kharg island 😂 idk why common sense national defense/fiscal policy and bombing Kharg island are suddenly and inextricably linked in your mind. And as I’ve said many times before, I don’t know why you do this weird thing where you say “well if you’re so smart why don’t you run for office and fix everything.” We’re debating in a forum. The onus isn’t on either of us to fix the whole world. But if you do want my policy prescription that badly it’s basically: do all the smart stuff you listed in your comment but don’t do all the really stupid parts.

One saved round: Remember that time I said we were heading down the road of irreversible stupid escalations and everyone called me a TDS libtard pussy? Well now here we are talking about how we need to bomb Kharg island so that WW3 starts on our terms 🤷🏻‍♂️ Can’t make this shit up

Apologies I was not tracking you’ve been advocating for this very very bad idea for as long and as consistently as you have been. Still you haven’t explained one key part. How, in an inevitable total war with a competing power that can out-produce us, is it a good plan to waste munitions on a middle eastern sideshow and then intentionally provoke that power while you are most vulnerable in their region of influence? You’re convinced an inevitable global total war is coming. Sure I guess if we want to pretend mutually assured destruction doctrine just magically stopped existing then yeah I guess we’re gonna go to total war with China at some point. But you just said if you had your way you’d push it off 10-15 years.. so shouldn’t that mean we dont bomb Kharg island right now, since that could possibly set off the exact chain of events you want to delay? Seriously, none of this makes any sense. This is turning into you trying to out-realist everybody with apocalypse fantasies, but the arguments fall flat for two main reasons: No one other than you conceives of this war in this way. Europe isn’t going to magically start producing oil again if we blow up Kharg island. They’re just going to be further weakened. If you do think WW3 is coming, you can just say that and prep for it. Idk why it requires us to step on our own dick first

I’m referring to your assertion that we need to bomb Kharg island to intentionally set off a global energy crisis which will somehow be a good thing in the long run. I don’t remember this war ever being pitched that way (fair enough, you didn’t pitch it) but I also don’t remember you ever making this point before. It seems a lot like you’re starting with your conclusion (we just need to keep bombing and escalating) and working backward from there each week with whatever the new neocon strategy du jour is. This is just a blatant straw man. No one here has ever claimed we figured out eternal world peace or that other countries around the world don’t act aggressively. Quite the opposite actually.. my argument is if we’re serious about deterring Russia and China this war has severely hampered that. We don’t have infinite money or resources and this stupid boondoggle on behalf of a foreign country pulled valuable assets away from other AORs that will take significant time to reconstitute. Rebuilding U.S. Missile Inventory: A Multiyear ProjectHigh expenditure of key munitions in Operation Epic Fury has created a window of vulnerability until inventories return to pre-war levels and then reach levels that war planners desire.Article says TLAM THAAD and Patriot stockpiles will be reconstituted by sometime between 2029 and 2031. We retasked 2 carrier strike groups from PACOM to the Middle East. Bomber task forces to anywhere other than CENTCOM are nonexistent right now. 69% of our tanker fleet is sitting at BG/PSAB. But yeah it’s probably a good idea to bomb Kharg island and risk a possible China confrontation at the exact moment our force posture in PACOM is more on the back foot than at any point in the last decade 👌

.. so we need to escalate in order to.. encourage Europe to recapitalize their energy independence, so that in some future hypothetical war that’s a foregone conclusion (in your head) our allies will be stronger? Guys these justifications are getting more and more convoluted and nonsensical. Talk about a goalpost shift.. I thought this was about an “imminent nuclear threat” to the US homeland

So I guess the obvious follow up question here is.. is Iran such an existential threat to the US that we need to bomb Kharg island, setting off a global economic crisis and potential war with China? You just listed some pretty gnarly side effects of your silver bullet solution to this war so I’m just wondering.. is a world where Kharg island is blown up but now we have a global depression/energy crisis and China wants to go to war with us somehow better?