Pooter

Safe - I'll refer you to the CDC, the clinical trials, and the experts in the field of immunology for that definition as they are the ones who come up with the criteria, not me. For it to be considered safe, my understanding is that adverse reactions have to be below a certain statistically significant threshold and below a certain severity threshold, both of which I also did not come up with. Much in the same way, walking out your front door is widely considered safe despite the fact that a chance does exist of you being hit in the face by a meteor. That is because it is not a statistically significant chance. If you have statistical evidence (from a reliable source.. that you interpreted correctly) pointing in a different direction I would love to see it. Until then I will defer to the people who's entire life's work is to make these determinations. Effective - the vaccine reduces your risk of contracting covid and drastically reduces your risk of hospitalization, and death. On booster shots: why is there a new flu shot every year? Because immunity wears off and new variants emerge. As for how many boosters to get and when they will be approved for the general public, I will once again defer to experts. Much like they defer to me on matters pertaining to flying airplanes.

Yeah it's not a good look for milley for sure. Add this to the laundry list of reasons this guy needs to go. Having said that, I'm glad someone was thinking about how to mitigate the damage a desperate and defeated trump could have attempted to do in his final days. Glad it never came to this but the fact that the CJCS was so worried he thought this was a conversation that needed to happen should tell you all you need to know about trump's mental stability after the election loss.

What goalposts exactly? Throughout all of these discussions I have maintained the same exact points. 1. the vaccine is safe and effective and no one so far has provided convincing evidence to the contrary. To include your and @torqued's statistically illiterate flailing. 2. While I think it's a very bad plan to pass on the vaccine, getting the shot should be entirely your choice unless you voluntarily surrendered some of your medical autonomy by joining the military. My suggestion, stick to what you're good at and keep posting your tangential Alex Jones-esque rants with a healthy side of racial slurs.

Wrong again. You aren't controlling for the total number of people in the vaccinated and unvaccinated sub groups. Your continuing arrogance in the face of being so objectively wrong is getting pretty obnoxious. When you calculate a death rate you divide deaths in a particular sub group by total number of people in that sub group. You do not divide a death number by another death number. That results in a unit-less proportion that has no context. We will now spell this out so there's no more confusion. When you want to find the total covid death rate you do this: Number of covid deaths / number of people So if you want the elderly vaccinated covid death rate you do this: number of vaxxed old people deaths / number of vaxxed old people And if you want unvaxxed old people death rate you do this: number of unvaxxed old people deaths / number of unvaxxed old people Hopefully by now you have caught on that there are two different denominators and one is much larger than the other. And that is why the death rate can be much lower for vaxxed old people despite their numerator being larger. The only thing your mis-analysis allows you to say is that approximately two thirds of the UK elderly covid deaths are among vaccinated and one third are the unvaccinated. But without the correct denominators that number does not tell you anything useful about death rates and relative risk level between the two groups. Quick thought experiment. If everyone had the shot, vaccinated people would account for 100% of the deaths! My goodness! The vaccine must be pointless! It's almost like having the correct denominator actually matters.

I actually haven't encountered a single one of those people. Most of the rest of us aren't "staunch mandate" we just have a modicum of awareness about what we signed up for and aren't going to torpedo our job and reputation because we got a little too riled up over some podcasts.

Hope everyone who choose to die on this vaccination hill gets some immense satisfaction out of sticking it to big blue. Because that's likely all you're getting. The staunch anti vax dudes I know of are invariably the squadron shitbags, who spend way too much time publicly arguing politics on Facebook, and who will not be missed by anyone.. least of all the commanders who are relishing this excuse to get a complete liability out of their organization. The number of people who discovered their extremely sincerely held religious beliefs on stem cells just this past week is particularly rich. You'd think a supposedly principled person would think twice about faking a religious belief to justify their stubbornness, but I'm sure the crippling case of Dunning-Kruger prevents that level of introspection.

Perhaps try making an argument rather than just blasting out more links and expecting people to go on a scavenger hunt to figure out what your point is. Are you actually arguing the vaccine does not reduce the rates of hospitalization and death? And if you want anyone to take you seriously, can't just LOL away the fact that you were citing absolute death numbers without considering the denominators those numbers come from.

Jesus dude take a second to look at statistics for more than just a surface level talking point. Covid deaths are extremely closely linked to old age. The elderly are overwhelmingly vaccinated. Like upwards of 90% in the UK. So yes, more vaccinated old people have died in the last six months. Could that be because the denominator is far larger?? Weird.. so a small proportion of a giant denominator can sometimes be larger than a medium proportion of a small denominator. Math is so weird isn't it?! This is a perfect example of how a garbage interpretation of data can lead to a totally incorrect conclusion. You have to look at the death rate. 1000 deaths in 90% of a demographic is a much much better rate than 500 deaths in 10% of that demographic.

@BashiChuniAs usual, multiple things can be true at once. I don't think you can take a single factor analysis and treat it as gospel simply because someone superimposed two graphs. Saying Israel->mask mandates->huge spike anyway, vs Sweden->no masks->no spike... therefore masks are useless neglects to mention the litany of other variables at play here. Demographics, climate, population, population density, when and where a variant hits first, covid approach from the beginning all play a role. Israel and sweden are so different I don't think you can draw a good conclusion from a single factor analysis. Having said that, I don't think mask mandates make much of a difference as polling data shows people tend to mask up voluntarily when their perceived risk increases.

Apologies for contradicting the podcast gospel. Believe it or not, I'm actually tracking as well. I too have a phone with a spotify subscription and listened when these two went on rogan last week. My point was never that there are no side effects, or no long term side effects of the covid vaccine. There are. They are already documented and the data set on them grows every day. But they are also exceedingly rare. And most importantly, they are much, much rarer than the documented side effects of the actual disease. My point (really the CDCs point) is that long term effects typically don't manifest out of nowhere if they hadn't already manifested in the short term. This holds true across a wide variety of medications and vaccines over decades and decades of study. I did not invent this idea. Now you are right, the covid shot is an mRNA vaccine and is the first of its type. So maybe that means it's such cutting-edge voodoo witchcraft that it goes against all prevailing medical wisdom and us lemmings are all going to develop ass cancer out of nowhere in 20 years. Or.. probably not. In the meantime, my risk analysis tells me that I need to be concerned about things that actually exist in the here and now, rather than future hypotheticals.

The cool part about predicting long term vaccine side effects is this: for some people those effects will manifest in the short term, so we can use that to determine if and what the long term effects will be. There are no vaccines that exist for which there are long term effects that randomly pop up after a few years, which didn't originally manifest in the short term in some recipients. In summary, if you are worried about some 10 year-later infertility side effect from the covid shot, you are worrying about nothing. With billions of doses already administered, statistically significant infertility would have already manifested in some people if it was ever going to be a long term problem. The same applies for any other side effect. The idea that previously undocumented side effects are likely to show up decades down the road is both scientifically and historically illiterate.

One of the most important tenets of liberal thought is: you should be able to do what you want unless it impacts someone else A lot of anti vax people think their choice to not get the shot is solely a personal one with little to no ramifications on others. After all, if you're vaccinated why would you worry about getting covid from an unvaxxed person. Except there's a catch. Healthcare is a finite resource and non vaccinated people are taking up almost all of the bandwidth. Across all age groups, the unvaccinated are far more likely to contract severe illness and require hospitalization. When your trash decision puts you in the hospital and you take an ICU bed from someone needing urgent care for something that wasn't preventable, your decision just hurt someone else. I'll say the same for obese people and smokers. Your trash lifestyle and decision making has upped your risk factors and you are negatively impacting others.

Never said it did. Simply pointing out that we were in a very different spot a few months ago. So much so, that even the CDC let up on their masking nonsense.

It's absolutely not too late to talk about this stuff. We had covid essentially beat back in May to the point the CDC lifted masking guidance. Now hospitals are a dumpster fire again. Things change, new variants emerge, and public health guidance/medical best practices should change accordingly. What was a good idea in May might not be a good idea now. If you think we can just let the delta variant run its course and that'll be the last we have to deal with covid, I would love some of what you're smoking.

Well if you ask the White House all those Americans still there just must not have "wanted to leave." They're just having a nice summer sabbatical hiding in the closet to avoid the stonings and beheadings.

I can answer this for you based on how ICU doctors in the country behave on every Friday night shift.. you triage patients based on severity and allocate resources to the ones in the most critical condition. If two patients are in the same exact condition, and you can only take care of one, it probably comes down to chance or whoever got there first. Any medical care policy regarding covid vax status or comorbidities or how you got into that situation would inevitably be met with massive legal challenges as it would be a huge violation of the Hippocratic oath.

Two questions: -How do you think the vaccine was sold? By whom? Because some of us have understood for quite a while this is much more similar to a yearly flu vaccine situation than a polio vaccine one-and-done situation. -How would a vaccinated person's immune system encourage mutations any more than the immune system of a person with natural immunity from having had the virus, and then re-encountering it?

Moot, as in "having little or no practical relevance." We know that the vaccine dramatically reduces the chance of hospitalization. Therefore a more vaccinated population will have fewer hospitalizations per capita, resulting in a less strained health care system. If the hospitals are only half full, turns out you don't have to worry about who to give the last ventilator to. Instead, we live in the stupidest possible timeline where these hypotheticals can and have actually happened. We have the privilege of living in a timeline where people are more interested in fish tank cleaner and horse de-wormer they heard about on a podcast than a vaccine endorsed by virtually every epidemiologist in the western world. **caveat** love JRE. Just not a great place for reliable medical guidance.

If only there was a safe, effective, and fully approved vaccination that radically reduces your chances of hospitalization from covid, rendering these hypotheticals completely moot. Wouldn't that be nice

Saw some reporting that we blew up some ammunition and the explosion was heard across Kabul, hopefully that's all it was

I think when unvaxxed people start re-catching it, that will massively change the way people think about covid. Right now there's a chicken pox-esque "had it once so I'm good" mentality which is completely incorrect. Similarly I think we are about to see an uptick in breakthrough cases among the vaccinated as we near the 6 month point from the first shots and that immunity tapers off over time.

I don't think it's quite that simple though. Having covid definitely gives you some immunity in the short term just like the vaccine. But this pandemic has been going for a year and a half and there are people who caught covid early whose T cell immunity is definitely tapering off. Having covid is once is not a lifetime golden ticket to never having to worry about this again. And neither is the vaccine. That isn't how any of this works. Immunity tapers off over time and new variants emerge which is why you can catch seasonal flu every year if you aren't careful. The other problem is that people grossly over self-report having covid. I can't tell you how many people I've talked to who say something like "yeah I had the sniffles last March and my bunghole felt weird, I probably had it already". Relying on self reported covid is not a good way for a company to run their employee health program. So at a basic level, yes you are right. Getting covid and getting the vaccine accomplish the same thing as far as immunity. But for both, we don't know exactly how long that immunity lasts or how durable it is for future variants and relying on someone to self report their immunity is about as unreliable as it gets. Companies are always going to air on the side of caution and when you have a safe, fully approved vaccine, I don't think requiring that is some dystopian overreach. Do airlines require other vaccines? Yearly flu shots?

Nothing like a person with 2 visible comorbidities (obese and elderly) telling us she isn't getting the shot so she won't become magnetized 🤦🏻‍♂️ I do hate these "people on the street" videos though. The daily show also loves to do them and it's such a cheap, intellectually dishonest way of lumping all your opponents' arguments into the stupidest bin possible. There are intelligent people who have doubts about the vaccine. They aren't all raving trumper hillbillys on your grandma's Facebook page as this video would have you believe. I still think their risk analysis is way off the mark, but the media needs to figure out that personally attacking vaccine hesitant people is not the way you create converts.

Yes you are reading it entirely wrong. It is now fully approved for people 16 and older, and still under emergency use authorization for ages 12-15. There are multiple other cases for which the emergency use authorization still applies like administering a third dose for immunocompromised people. The emergency use auth doesn't magically disappear entirely because there are still untested age and vulnerability demographics. But I'm sure you understand the FDA legalese better than.. the FDA, whose front page of their website literally says it was fully approved, today. They also go on to say: The FDA’s approval of this vaccine is a milestone as we continue to battle the COVID-19 pandemic. While this and other vaccines have met the FDA’s rigorous, scientific standards for emergency use authorization, as the first FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine, the public can be very confident that this vaccine meets the high standards for safety, effectiveness, and manufacturing quality the FDA requires of an approved product" But of course we already know that this isn't good enough for you. Because nothing will ever be. Yesterday it was "I'm waiting on full FDA approval" and tomorrow it'll be "Well the FDA is probably funded by george soros so who can trust them."

I'd bring your plane for one simple reason: you're probably going to sit casual status before you start for a while and have absolutely nothing to do. Once you start UPT, that's a different story. If you asked me then, GA flying would have been the last thing would have wanted to do on weekends during UPT. Realistically you're going to be flying or simming demanding graded events every workday and studying/chairflying for at least part of every weekend. It gets tiring. And unless you are an absolute addict, you're probably going to want at least a day or two off from flying per week. Still, casual status alone is good enough reason to bring your plane and keep your skills sharp. And you might sit casual after UPT as well waiting on SERE and follow on training dates. Hell, you might even FAIP and then you'll be really glad you brought your GA plane, because then you'll be able to escape the shithole towns they decided to put UPT bases in.