DirkDiggler

There’s a cynical part of me that wonders if the Russians are utilizing an updated version of the penal battalion concept they used to fairly good effect in WWII. Push the conscript heavy/non Russian (Chechen/Donbas/Luhasensk) units forward to soak up the Ukrainian higher end anti-armor munitions (Javelin, NLAW, AT-14 etc), identify Ukrainian force concentrations, then use follow on echelons to overwhelm depleted Ukrainian infantry through massed artillery strikes and tank heavy mechanized units. Hope that’s not the case.

There’s been a lot of things about this invasion, just from an operational design standpoint, that really haven’t made sense to me. I can’t figure out if Putin miscalculated that badly in the Ukrainian military capability/will to fight, overestimated Russian military abilities, honestly believed the Ukrainian civilian population would embrace the Russians, or some combination of the above. Or whether Russian military leadership at the Operational and Tactical level is just that incompetent. Either way, I feel like the Russian overmatch in long range fires hasn’t been exploited well (F3 issues maybe?), their sustainment plan is pretty obviously non-existent, and the infantry/armor coordination is falling short. Also seems like CAS and SEAD plans haven’t been executed well (interdiction maybe a little better, time will tell with regards to Ukrainian anti-armor/aircraft munitions resupply). It seems like their higher command has decided that Kyiv is the Schwerpunkt (at least for now), but they’re not concentrating combat power there like I’d expect them to. If the Ukrainian military really plays this right Kyiv and Kharkiv, amongst other cities, are going to turn into a Russian graveyard.

Why? Say what you mean.

Oddly quite Odessa Control frequency, followed by strange flashes of light fence in.........."hey Co, you checked the NOTAMs right"?

That was a good recommendation, thanks for posting. I personally don't use twitter at all (never understood why anyone would to be honest) but that feed is interesting/useful.

Some good video footage this morning of a large Russian logistics column outside of Kharkiv completely destroyed by Ukrainian forces. If the Ukrainians were able to leave pockets of forces along major LOCs supporting the Russian advance, this is going to get even worse for the Russians.

Putin's nuclear threats only work if we allow ourselves to be cowed by them. Ukraine is fighting with everything they have even with the knowledge that Putin could incinerate Kyiv, Odessa, or Kharkiv at a moments notice if he so chooses. They're doing it because they'd rather fight and die free than live under the Russian boot. Sweden and Finland just got threatened by Russia with unspecified "political-military consequences" if they join NATO. The Finns and Swedes aren't bending over to Russia even with what's going on in Ukraine. All three of these countries are doing/saying these things without the US/NATO nuclear umbrella for protection.

Edward Snowden is the actual definition of a treasonous sack of shit.

https://apple.news/A5knIQwopRcmQV0voOvyGJw For anyone looking to sign up.

Pictures of long lines of Ukrainians volunteering to defend Kyiv; also reports of Ukrainian expats in Europe returning home to defend Ukraine. Anyone know if there’s any organizations forming from countries other than Ukraine to help them fight?

Amen. All this stupid political horseshit in our country aside, there’s been a lot of Ukrainians in the last two days charging a steep price for their farms. So far their leaders are stepping up big time.

Caveat: Speculating. There’s only so many roads that support the Russian axis of advance. I haven’t seen any videos showing Russian BTGs charging across the steppes WWII style (maybe they’re doing so, just haven’t seen it personally). You can only cram so many units on to limited LOCs; further, a lot of the roads outside the major cities are in poor condition and armored vehicles tear the shit out of pavement. Perhaps more importantly, you can only push forward the combat power you can logistically sustain. Trucks need to use roads and are vulnerable to ambush/require security, helicopter sustainment is vulnerable to MANPADs and can’t move enough to keep large armored units in the fight. I don’t believe the Russian AF has a large tactical airlift (airdrop) capability. My guess is the Russians are overall limited by their ability to sustain their forward combat power.

Hope it’s true and I hope the Ukrainians continue putting as many of these Russian pigs into the dirt as they possibly can.

It’s pretty unusual for Russia. Russia’s security services are unfortunately brutally efficient in suppressing that sort of thing though so not holding out hope that it’ll force any course corrections on Putin’s part.

Could be this. Could be the Ukrainians are putting up a tougher fight than Russia expected. Unfortunately could also just be sequenced phases in the Russian operational plan. Interesting open source speculation about the motivation/morale or lack thereof of some Russian units involved in the attack. My Estonian buddy is sharing lots of videos of large anti-war protests in Russia; hopefully that continues.

Fuckin A, keep stacking ‘em up

We really gonna turn one of the more useful threads on Baseops into another fuckin’ political pissing contest?

I would agree with most of what you wrote above with the following exception. If the Russian Federation (really Putin) decides to go high order with an invasion of the Ukraine, I sincerely hope that the Ukrainians stack up as many Russian bodies as they possibly can before they're either overrun or are forced into some shitty settlement. And I don't care if some Russian private inhales radioactive dust and gets cancer 20 years from now due to a completely avoidable nuclear disaster and war of their own choosing.

https://breakingdefense.com/2022/02/russia-vs-ukraine-could-provide-invaluable-lessons-on-what-truly-works-in-modern-warfare/ The author asks some interesting questions regarding the future viability of some weapons and operational maneuver concepts based on what we could see in a Russian-Ukrainian War, carrying that forward to a US-Russia or US-China conflict.

Pretty interesting article, pilot's gotta land it via camera due to the length on the nose. That'd have to be weird doing the first couple times.

I'd like to give another shout out to Jon and the team at Trident. He got me a 2.25% lock outside of 60 days on a VA non-jumbo with only 5% down; the loan application and closing process was seamless, even with a remote signing and POA involved. Would highly recommend Trident to anyone in the market for a mortgage.

Lizards

Pretty soon they're gonna have to send in a bunch of lot lizards to distract them truckers......

Its not a US State Department requirement; the US (especially the US Ukrainian embassy) cannot dictate another country's COVID-19 entrance requirements. It's a Polish requirement for travelers arriving in Poland from other than the EU/Schengen area. See link below: https://www.gov.pl/web/coronavirus/outside-the-european-union-schengen-area Per the Polish website, a traveler (or in this case refugee ) wouldn't necessarily get denied entry to Poland without a negative COVID test, they'd be put in quarantine for 7 days.

Why any adult with critical thinking skills uses any talking head cable or network news show as a primary source of information and/or news is beyond me.