DirkDiggler

Had a really good buddy take this route. He punched at 13 years for the airlines. He didn't get hired by the flying unit at his airline domicile (tough unit to get into) and he didn't want to commute to a Guard/Reserve job. He ended up taking a non-flying Exec position at a Guard Mx Group (think it was Guard) at his airline domicile location. He said the job/work is boring but it was his insurance in case the airlines went tits up. Low and behold, COVID happens; he was able to pickup a year of orders while waiting the his airline to sort itself out.

Good article on Putin/Russia's view regarding Russian power, and Ukrainian neutrality. https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/01/10/why_neutrality_is_no_answer_for_ukraine_811228.html

I hadn't heard about this at all until today. The AFSOC/CC just put out an official statement on Instagram regarding it. https://www.instagram.com/p/CYaE5UflyRo/

This info is 14 years old so take it with a grain of salt. I went to SOS with a Viper driver (previous B-1 WSO, not sure which he was when he was matched) who had been a bone marrow donor. He didn't make any specific comments regarding the AF medical process (at least he didn't say he had any issues with it) itself but he did reinforce that the recovery was pretty rough (they're driving large bore needles into your pelvis/legs I believe). He said he was on crutches for a week and it was a pretty painful recovery. That said, he was pretty happy he was able to help (rightfully so) and said he was back flying not too long after the procedure. I'd tell you to reach out to your local Flight Doc but given my recent experiences there's a good chance they may not know what bone marrow is. Best of luck!

Thanks for that, I actually lol'd. Back on my first deployment as a young 1Lt, I had a Nav who, while a good dude, was super loud/brash and would forget his head if it wasn't attached to his body. He kept leaving his shit all over ops and the plane, so by month two of the deployment pretty everything he owned had hogs drawn all over it. He finally loses his shit one day on the all of us in ops, yelling, unspecified threats towards the next mofo that draws a dick on his stuff, pretty epic rant honestly. After a couple minutes of this he storms out the door in a very angry fashion. Unfortunately for him he forgets his snack banana, left it lying on the table. No one says a word. I picked the banana up and drew a big veiny triumphant bastard on said banana. 5 minutes later he comes back in to get his snack, picks it up and sees this giant cock drawn on the side of it with the whole crew sitting there silently staring at him. Hangs his head in defeat, unpeels it (looking disturbing like very loose foreskin at this point), and walks out the door.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2022/01/06/putins_calculation_for_war_is_sincere_810817.html Very good article on Putin's Ukraine calculus.

Mosul on Netflix is worth watching if you have some spare time and are looking for a war movie. Pretty good depiction of brutal urban combat against ISIS. Plot was a little thin but was still overall a well done movie.

Not directly related to the current Russia-Ukrainian tensions, but it will be interesting to see if the situation in Kazakhstan effects or influences Russian (really Putin's) decision making with regards to Ukraine. Russia loathes instability on it's borders, Nazarbayev was solidly in Putin's orbit (one of the last "old school" USSR types besides Lushenko in Belarus), and by all accounts the current instability has caught the Russians off-guard. If the CTSO "peacekeeping force" employs the standard heavy handed repression the Russians are known for things could get messy there. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/kazakhstan-government-resigns-after-violent-protests-over-fuel-price-2022-01-05/

Don't mean to derail this thread but this topic is something that interests and affects me. While I haven't seen a decrease in the quality of the UPT product, our community has gotten much, much younger in all positions, to include IPs (instructors in all crew positions really). In some ways this is a positive, since previously the time to upgrade to IP in AFSOC was sometimes excessive/out of whack with other communities. And honestly there's some high speed dudes that have both benefited from it and had good return on investment to the guys on the line. In other ways I think it's been a negative. In the last 3 years I've heard more incorrect/poorly considered techniques and sometimes downright wrong concepts/tactics than in my previous 15 years. I also think that the ops tempo, as you discussed, has led to a serious reduction in the amount of time IPs have to spend with new copilots. Finally, I think the airline hiring spree is about to crush the MC community. The AF got a reprieve for 18 months in the form of COVID, but now I'm seeing a large chunk of the O-4 IP/EP 2-3,000 hour guys either punching or on the verge of doing so. I've read/been presented the Shaw Class A. It was a tough read, especially as a senior IP. I wholeheartedly agree with your point about FTU instruction versus line instruction; the two just aren't the same. It's not cosmic, but how a line IP approaches student training versus an FTU IP is just a different mentality (and sometime skill set) that I didn't fully appreciate until I was an FTU IP. I'm absolutely not against improving/modernizing our UPT syllabus, but I'm of the personal opinion that actual hours in the airplane CANNOT be replicated, regardless of the level of technology present in whatever training device is being used. Back on topic, think the AF will bump the bonus back up to $35K this year?

What are the big changes in the new syllabus (especially for the T-1 MAF/AFSOC tracked guys)? In the 2.5 years I've been back flying from staff, my community has seemed to win the co-pilot lottery (most of the new guys have been average to above average). We've also gotten more than the average amount of T-38 guys than I've usually seen. A couple folks I know on the AETC side of the house have been foretelling this coming wave of drastically less capable pilots coming out of the pipeline but I haven't personally seen it yet.

Thankfully I bought right before things went really crazy in the market where I’m at. Assuming no issues with the inspection/appraisal I’m about to make a stupid amount of money on a house I’ve only owned for 2.5 years.

My current location went up almost $500….two months before I PCS

Fucking awesome pic. If a military member was interested in this as a career post military retirement, how early would you recommend starting the app and networking process?

That was a really good read for an abstract, thanks for posting. One of the best guest speakers I've ever listened to was a Ph.D advisor to NDU, she was a specialist on international energy security/politics; she came and spoke to us while I was at JPMEII. Energy security is a huge part of and a major consideration in most countries' foreign policy; until the EU is able to secure additional energy sources outside of Russian gas Putin will hold some sway over the continent.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/12/08/putin_can_take_eastern_ukraine_but_he_wont_like_what_he_gets_806873.html Good article about some of the challenges Putin would face in a Ukrainian invasion.

https://breakingdefense.com/2021/12/what-would-it-take-to-defend-ukraine-potentially-billions-of-dollars/ Basic article about some COAs concerning a US/NATO military presence and what it would cost

https://apple.news/AuHOBXX0PTayOagAYVqaS8w Interesting article on interpreting Putin’s view on Ukrainian sovereignty

Would you be willing to spend a significant chunk of the 50K servicemembers lives that you propose to send to Ukraine? Including mine? Honestly asking. What's your threshold in lives spent/material used to stop Russian aggression? If it helps, I'm honestly leaning towards us taking a stand on this. A phenomenal Estonian officer friend of mine is right on the frontlines of this nonsense. The last time I wished him a happy birthday, he said it would be much more cheerful if more Americans were there (he actually gets American sarcasm), and said he had a great birthday mining bridges and stockpiling weapons in the woods in case Mr. Putin came calling (cause that's actually what he's been doing lately). I'd go stand next to him in a heartbeat. I seriously would, despite the horrid consequences of a full on clash with Russia. If it we reduce to emotional tribalism and the US says the Ukrainians are part of my tribe, I'm all for standing up to and if necessary stomping the the Russians the fuck out.

3 pages back you you said you'd be a contentious objector after almost 20 years of service if your religious exemption got denied. So after almost 20 years of service, are you a contentious objector or aren't you? Or more direct question, if you're active duty; did your commander give you a direct order to take the Pfizer shot? And if so, did you refuse the direct order? How deep does your dedication to your beliefs on the Constitution (and what your view as an illegal order) go? More importantly, after 49 pages of thrash over the COVID shot, how many active duty members on this forum have actually chosen to separate over the military COVID vaccine mandate? Not asking Reserve or Guard, not asking waiting on a valid religious or medical exemption. I get that BaseOps is place that some come to bitch about military matters in general; if people stop bitching, there's probably something wrong. But I have yet to encounter an actual mass resistance on active duty to the mandate. I literally know of one person out of probably 500+ that has actually chosen to separate over the vaccine mandate. That person will be civilian in a couple weeks. I wish him the best of luck. I don't give a baker's fuck about the civilian side of this argument; I'm not a civilian and won't be for a couple years at least. FWIW, I don't think on the civilian side that the government should be able to go door-to-door sticking a needle in anyone's arms. That's not my farm and not my monkey's. This isn't even close to the dumbest vaccine the military has made me get (JEV and Anthrax would take that trophy). Seriously, how many on active duty on this forum have actually directly refused the order to get vaccine? And how many people, besides Negatory (noted exception, good for you), have actually changed their beliefs based on the dialogue on this thread?

You're immediately gonna know whether you guessed well once the gumjob starts, blindfold or not......but since that's a pretty tough qual to get probably still worth it!!

That’s enough Internet for today.

I partially agree with your assessment of our inability to play the long game; Russia and China tend to do it better than we do, especially lately. I think the truth is more nuanced. We still maintain a military presence and are committed to Korea's defense almost 70 years since the armistice, we've also been heavily involved in Colombia's internal defense for going on 50 years. Those are just two examples outside of Japan and NATO that we've actually stuck to post-WWII. There's probably others but I'd have to research that more. I think the greater strategic blunder we've made since the early '90s has been falsely assuming that Russia and China want what we want, and given enough exposure to the liberal international system would want to play by the rules. This is and has always been patently incorrect I've often wondered how things in Ukraine would've turned out had not persuaded them to give up the nuclear weapons they inherited from the fall of the USSR. In our rush to ensure non-proliferation we ignored some pretty obvious geographic/military realities regarding conventional warfare in that area of the world. I don't know that Ukraine having nukes would have ultimately made the current crisis better, but I firmly believe it wouldn't have made it worse. I'm also a believer that the possession of nuclear weapons actually decreases the possibility for large scale conflict in some ways, but that's a discussion for another thread. I don't believe that any US administration has handled US foreign policy and crises in that area of the world very well. Clinton did nothing when the Russians literally flattened Chechnya in '99. Bush did nothing when the Russian's invaded Georgia in '08. Obama did nothing in '14 about Crimea as mentioned above. Trump providing lethal aid in the form of Javelin's was somewhat different, but mostly symbolic. One of the provisions of the Javelin transfer was that they had to be stored in warehouses hundreds of miles away from the frontline with Russian back separatists and Russia itself (similar to what we did recently with the Kurds). As to the COA of putting US forces in the Ukraine, I think that would have to be handled extremely carefully. Putting something that could actually impact a Russian invasion there, like an ABCT or armored division, would probably send the Russians right over the edge/trip their red lines and maybe force a conflict. In their defense, looking at through their eyes, I maybe wouldn't blame them. If all of the sudden Mexico became an ally of Russia and Russia deployed a BTG on our border, we'd lose our shit. Maybe conducting a large scale, no notice SOF exercise focusing on asymmetric/guerilla warfare? Puts boots on the ground and also is something the Russians historically associate with bad memories and lots of casualties. Or maybe a DFE of 5th gen in country with bombers to another NATO country? We still hold an advantage there and would remind Mr. Putin that there's no certainty in conflict. As you said, not a lot of great COAs to choose from though.

Honest question; what COAs do you think we should consider going forward. I have a conflicted view on this. Russia (really Putin's, since he calls all the shots) actions are towards Ukraine are pretty much unceasingly hostile/coercive, and a full blown invasion would violate pretty much any international standard/law. The realist in me says any US military intervention on Ukraine's behalf in the event of a Russian invasion would be illogical. They're not a member of NATO so therefore not entitled to Article 5 status, they're not a powerful conventional or nuclear ally, and they're not integral to US national security. The liberal in me says they're a struggling democracy under threat from an autocratic enemy of the US, they're making honest efforts to be a part of the international order, and most of their people want freedom/don't want to be a part of Russia thus we shouldn't allow Russia to invade its neighbor. I went to ACSC with a couple of Ukrainian servicemembers, they all came across as solid dudes who were proud of their country and willing to fight for it. One of them completed ACSC and was immediately deployed to the frontlines on his return to Ukraine. I think about those guys and my Estonian buddy a lot when I think about this problem. The blunt reality of this is that Russia plainly sees Ukraine becoming closer to the West/member of NATO a direct threat to their national security. The US and probably most of Europe doesn't see things that way, nor does most the US population care about Ukrainian sovereignty. We are not currently in a conventional military position to deter or defeat a Russian invasion of Ukraine, unless we start a force buildup now. If we would intervene in the event of Russian invasion (talking right of bang) we'd have to face the very likely possibility of high casualties and an adversary that may employ tactical nuclear weapons if they feel they're threatened with a loss. All that said if the order's given I'll go without hesitation, would be nice to have a clear goal to fight for for a change.

https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2021/12/03/russias_military_buildup_reveals_stone-cold_reality_ukrainian_entry_into_nato_would_make_war_more_not_less_likely_806307.html Well written article from RCD on the current tensions in Ukraine.

My community has had several guys (both O & E) do this program and haven't heard a bad review yet (at least before the change to the rules). We even had an O-5 pilot type do an internship with a classic car restoration company; he got hired at the end of it and now has a full time "job" doing his life's passion. Pretty cool program for anyone that can make it work.