The going to staff sans IP advice you got is probably correct; I’ve sat in on a staff MLR as an observer and it’s tough to land a DP without a strong record since you’ll be competing against the AF top 20-30% types.
Based on what you’ve posted, you honestly have a 50/50 shot on making O-5 based on recent historical metrics (IDE in correspondence complete with a P).
If making O-5 is you top priority, given your situation as you describe it your best bet is getting a Wing job with visibility to the Bob’s. If making IP and flying is your top priority, stay in Sq and fly your ass off. Nothing wrong with either COA. Best of luck to ya!