Those Rand studies are like Doctorial Thesis, they're formulated off of data, then presented by writers to make a conclusion. They aren't absolutes, i mean, would you trust a computer that ran the simulated air war blindly and said "yep, thats exactly what will happen". The rand studies are basically that. Remember the whole "we will lose X number of Tankers in the Gulf War"
I'm just saying, just because one report says one thing, and one says another, it doesn't mean either is true.
We have less fighters than we did 10 years ago (does not equal) we will absolutely lose an air war to China
Schwartz quibbling of "I can't really see what report that is from this distance...blah blah blah" was super embarrassing to watch though