North Korea at it again

[Champ Kind]

Back in Dec 2010 I really thought we were going to head over there and put nK's teeth to the curb and stomp on the back of their skull. Seemed to fizzle out as quickly as it escalated though.

[AnimalMother]

Raptors inbound

Good old battleship diplomacy hard at work.

[M2]

[otsap]

They haven't shut down Kaesong yet, so I feel fairly confident in saying that nothing is going to happen, at least not in the short term.

That said, the point about "one errant shot" kicking something off is very well taken. The ROK govt/military have made enough public statements that it seems pretty clear that if there is another non-deniable kinetic event (i.e., shelling an island or something else that is similarly easily traceable to the North, as opposed to sinking a ship or a terrorist attack or something) shit's gonna get real very quickly, much more so than the non-response that occurred after the YP-do shelling.

https://english.yonha...005300315F.HTML

ETA: How's the short term looking now?

Edited April 3, 2013 by otsap

[kchsload]

https://english.yonha...005300315F.HTML

ETA: How's the short term looking now?

It'll be interesting to see how long the ban lasts. That factory is one of the North's few sources for hard currency, if I recall correctly around $450Mil a year.

[Ram]

https://english.yonha...005300315F.HTML

ETA: How's the short term looking now?

Everyone have your go bags ready.

Let's do this!

[Wolf424]

Back in Dec 2010 I really thought we were going to head over there and put nK's teeth to the curb and stomp on the back of their skull. Seemed to fizzle out as quickly as it escalated though.

Ah yes, Operation "DENY CHRISTMAS" 2010...I remember that bravo alert well...

[Tank]

I'm not worried until the familys start to be evacuated from Yongson, Osan, etc...

[HU&W]

Everybody on here and at work keeps talking about their own arbitrary line in the sand. "I'm not worried until (or as long as)..." Here's a few that I've heard:

N. Korea successfully tests a smaller nuke - done

N. Korea cuts off their special phones with the south - done

N. Korea declares the armistice invalid - done

N. Korea shuts down Kaesong - done

the US ramps up mil presence - happening

the US has a NEO to evac Civs - not yet

N. Korea fires across DMZ - not yet

N. Korean troops cross DMZ - not yet

a US citizen/troop is killed by N. Korea action - not yet

N. Korea nukes S. Korea - not yet

N. Korea attempts to attack Japan or US - not yet

I'm sure there are a few that I'm missing, but these seem to be the lines that folks keep discussing. Un seems to be crossing them off every 1-2 weeks. Something about this time feels more real than the previous ones. I think it has something to do with Un lacking the maturity and restraint of his predecessors. Al Qaeda was composed of less then 10,000 violent anti-Americans (being generous with that number) who threatened and then showed a willingness to conduct violence against the US. Look at how we responded once the line was crossed with them. N. Korea has issued similar threats of violence against Americans. They have a well trained, well equipped, standing army of over a million soldiers who are willing to conduct that violence when the armistice breaks down. If Un decides to cross the remaining lines, which could happen at any time and in a period of just a few hours, it may not be a bad idea to have a bag packed.

[slackline]

They have a well trained, well equipped, standing army.

Really? Large, okay. Well trained and well equipped? I highly doubt that. Country full of crazies willing to attack with whatever crap they can get their hands on? Ok, I'll agree with you there.

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[Slander]

Everybody on here and at work keeps talking about their own arbitrary line in the sand. "I'm not worried until (or as long as)..." Here's a few that I've heard:

N. Korea successfully tests a smaller nuke - done

N. Korea cuts off their special phones with the south - done

N. Korea declares the armistice invalid - done

N. Korea shuts down Kaesong - done

the US ramps up mil presence - happening

the US has a NEO to evac Civs - not yet

N. Korea fires across DMZ - not yet

N. Korean troops cross DMZ - not yet

a US citizen/troop is killed by N. Korea action - not yet

N. Korea nukes S. Korea - not yet

N. Korea attempts to attack Japan or US - not yet

I'm sure there are a few that I'm missing, but these seem to be the lines that folks keep discussing. Un seems to be crossing them off every 1-2 weeks. Something about this time feels more real than the previous ones. I think it has something to do with Un lacking the maturity and restraint of his predecessors. Al Qaeda was composed of less then 10,000 violent anti-Americans (being generous with that number) who threatened and then showed a willingness to conduct violence against the US. Look at how we responded once the line was crossed with them. N. Korea has issued similar threats of violence against Americans. They have a well trained, well equipped, standing army of over a million soldiers who are willing to conduct that violence when the armistice breaks down. If Un decides to cross the remaining lines, which could happen at any time and in a period of just a few hours, it may not be a bad idea to have a bag packed.

We're not alone, every analyst who is at all familiar with the peninsula is doing the same thing. It's a judgement of how much is Cartman proving how manly he is vice how much is actual real ambition for war. It seems like they're just saying that we are trying to attack them, planning to attack them, so at some point I'm guessing he'll say "See, our tough rhetoric kept the imperialist Americans at bay! Go North Korea! No, you can't have any food. Shut up and get back to slave labor." Or something like that.

[Vertigo]

Curious- what are the chances Un actually wants to end tyrannical rule in NK and the only way he can successfully do that, without being thwarted from the inside, is by starting a war in which NK would quickly lose. Lose the war, lose your nation + all the old guard falls with it.

That's giving the guy a lot or credit, but who knows what inner secrets this guy has floating in his head.

[Spinner]

That's giving the guy a lot or credit, but who knows what inner secrets this guy has floating in his head.

I do...

[Cliff Clavin]

https://www.reuters.c...E9320YQ20130403

US sends missile defense to Guam just in case they can actually reach us there.

Really? Large, okay. Well trained and well equipped? I highly doubt that. Country full of crazies willing to attack with whatever crap they can get their hands on? Ok, I'll agree with you there.

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Though I do agree that they're not as strong as they'd have the world believe, it's never a bad idea to respect your adversary and his capabilities, IMHO.

[slackline]

https://www.reuters.c...E9320YQ20130403

US sends missile defense to Guam just in case they can actually reach us there.

Though I do agree that they're not as strong as they'd have the world believe, it's never a bad idea to respect your adversary and his capabilities, IMHO.

I respect that they're crazy enough to do some jacked up things, and cause a lot of pain and misery for the world. I don't however believe that they have any real capabilities other than the ability to throw their people to the slaughter in order to stave off their ultimate defeat. That, will ultimately get our people killed.

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[Slander]

I don't however believe that they have any real capabilities other than the ability to throw their people to the slaughter in order to stave off their ultimate defeat.

Then why did I spend so much time in MOPP 4 at Kunsan?

[B52gator]

Ie been out of the game a few years...don't they have a shit load of AAA and artillery?

[busdriver]

slackline: It's a really bad idea to underestimate your enemy. I think your point is that the north would eventually lose, assuming the Chinese didn't step in to help. I agree, but don't misunderstand how big of a problem they could create in the process of getting defeated. Then the aftermath would be a humanitarian disaster of epic proportions.

Vertigo: I think that's giving him too much credit, and it's not a very smart way to go about making that change. If he really wanted that, he'd be better off slowly opening up the country to outside commercial influence. In this case, I think he's trying to consolidate his power. He doesn't really want a war but he has to get the military to support him, else he risks a coup.

Edited April 3, 2013 by busdriver

[HU&W]

Really? Large, okay. Well trained and well equipped? I highly doubt that. Country full of crazies willing to attack with whatever crap they can get their hands on? Ok, I'll agree with you there.

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I respectfully disagree. Compared to us, Russia, China, India, or any of our first world allies, no they're not. Compared to al Qaeda or the Taliban, they're extremely well equipped and trained.

Looks like things are ramping up a little more. SECDEF has declared North Korea a "real and clear danger" to South Korea, Japan, and America. We are deploying the THAAD to Guam now.

Edited April 3, 2013 by HU&W

[DFRESH]

I don't normally use nbc as a news source, but saw this link on a friends bookface profile:

https://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/04/03/17580610-north-korea-warns-its-military-allowed-to-wage-nuke-strikes-against-us?lite

[TreeA10]

I would imagine the decision and initiative displayed by the senior leadership would be minimal but the single minded focus shown by the common soldier of fighting the imperialists would be quite impressive due to the cult of personality that has been made of Korean Cartman's grandfather, father, and now him.

And it would definitely require some serious dollars to bring out of the dark ages. I think these numbers are a serious underestimation because the cost to West Germany to rebuild East Germany is over $1.5 Trillion euros.

https://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub859.pdf

Estimates of the cost of Korean reunification vary widely, normally lying in the

range of $25 billion to $3.5 trillion,

24

and usually concentrate on financial costs only.

25

Such a wide range is primarily due to a combination of three factors: different starting

assumptions over North Korea’s real situation; what is factored into each costing (e.g.,

education, environmental repair); and, finally, the reunification end-state envisaged

and when (e.g., common education standard between north and south within 30 years

of reunification). One recent study aims to determine the cost of doubling of the North

Korean gross domestic product (GDP) within 4 years of reunification (this is assessed as the

minimum level of economic improvement required to limit mass migration to the south).

Based on this criterion, reunification will cost between $50 and $67 billion.

26

[matmacwc]

Just turn it into a glass flored, self lit parking lot already.

[billy pilgrim]

I can't even imagine what the average North Korean solider will think should he end up in downtown Seoul during an invasion. That solider who is amongst the poorest and most malnourished in the world standing in one of the worlds most modern and wealthy cities, realizing everything he's been told about the outside world is a lie...

I think that the smart move here would be to start an aggressive psyops campaign. Somehow (via stealth or low cost drones) drop leaflets, magazines, and aid to the North Korean people until they figure out what's really going on there and then let them sort this one out.

[Fuzz]

That's giving the guy a lot or credit, but who knows what inner secrets this guy has floating in his head.

Probably something along these lines.

I can't even imagine what the average North Korean solider will think should he end up in downtown Seoul during an invasion. That solider who is amongst the poorest and most malnourished in the world standing in one of the worlds most modern and wealthy cities, realizing everything he's been told about the outside world is a lie...

I think that the smart move here would be to start an aggressive psyops campaign. Somehow (via stealth or low cost drones) drop leaflets, magazines, and aid to the North Korean people until they figure out what's really going on there and then let them sort this one out.

This, I mean these people have no idea about anything that exists beyond their borders, how the heck are you going to reunify North and South when one side has been stuck in time for the last couple decades?

[Wolf424]

...an amazingly ethnocentric suggestion. Human rights organizations have been broadcasting propaganda and smuggling FM radios, letters, and other media into nK for years. It doesn't work.

You've been taught your entire life that democracy, capitalism, freedom, liberty, equal rights, etc. are the values that society should value most. You've been conditioned to be skeptical, fearful, and willing to fight any enemy that threatens that way of life. So now just imagine the pysops campaign the other way around (with the North spreading propaganda about us....which they do all the time). Do you think a leaflet advertising the merits of communism is going to change your mind? .....And that North Korean magazine....it didn't help you "figure our what's really going on here?" ....And that free aid, courtesy of a ruthless dictatorship, ...what, it didn't turn you towards undying loyalty to Kim Jong Un?

Since birth, they've been constantly instructed to distrust, fear and hate us. Showing them a leaflet isn't going to change anything.....they simply can't conceptualize what a free life would even mean to them, just like you and I could never understand their joy/loyalty in serving a dictatorship.

This!