Gen Welsh - USAF Chief of Staff

[Royal]

He didn't exactly get it right, but he did a hell of a lot better job comprehending it compared to that 69 step abortion the AF pawns off as an explanation for the Loop.

Edited February 20, 2015 by Royal

[di1630]

I've made up my mind after watching Welsh in front of Congress. He's kinda like Obama. Rode into power on a wave of hope/change, hasn't lived up to the hype.

Great speaker to a seated audience (Although the one time I saw him in person he danced around a blunt question politician style), but I have just lost faith in the guy overall.

As I have with many other generals as I've watched them lie, distort facts and play politics instead of lead which makes me wonder if they are incompetent or liars.....either way, not people I'd want in charge.

[sqwatch]

I've made up my mind after watching Welsh in front of Congress. He's kinda like Obama. Rode into power on a wave of hope/change, hasn't lived up to the hype.

Great speaker to a seated audience (Although the one time I saw him in person he danced around a blunt question politician style), but I have just lost faith in the guy overall.

As I have with many other generals as I've watched them lie, distort facts and play politics instead of lead which makes me wonder if they are incompetent or liars.....either way, not people I'd want in charge.

Di1630 for president!

[Fud]

He didn't exactly get it right, but he did a hell of a lot better job comprehending it compared to that 69 step abortion the AF pawns off as an explanation for the Loop.

Agreed on all. The best example of the OODA loop I have ever seen was in Robert Corum's book "Boyd". All too often, we try to make this concept more complicated, and it loses it's meaning.

[Chuck17]

Fud - Check out Osinga's book on Boyd. Way better, way deeper than Corum's hagiography.

https://www.amazon.com/Science-Strategy-War-Strategic-History/dp/0415459524/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1426888845&sr=8-1&keywords=Frans+Osinga

Chuck

[17D_guy]

Fud - Check out Osinga's book on Boyd. Way better, way deeper than Corum's hagiography.

https://www.amazon.com/Science-Strategy-War-Strategic-History/dp/0415459524/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1426888845&sr=8-1&keywords=Frans+Osinga

Chuck

$41 for the e-book?

[HU&W]

$41 for the e-book?

In life & death, $41 is pretty cheap. However, here's an abbreviated free version. https://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/boyd/osinga_boyd_postmod_copyright2007.pdf

[Royal]

Fud - Check out Osinga's book on Boyd. Way better, way deeper than Corum's hagiography.

https://www.amazon.com/Science-Strategy-War-Strategic-History/dp/0415459524/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1426888845&sr=8-1&keywords=Frans+Osinga

Chuck

According to Boyd's acolytes, Osinga's book is equivalent to all of Col Boyd's briefings in written rather than spoken form.

Mind of War by Grant Hammond is essential reading; Dr Hammond actually knew Boyd personally, unlike Coram.

Certain to Win is also very insightful.

Now back to complaining about the CSAF...

[Napoleon_Tanerite]

I've made up my mind after watching Welsh in front of Congress. He's kinda like Obama. Rode into power on a wave of hope/change, hasn't lived up to the hype.

Great speaker to a seated audience (Although the one time I saw him in person he danced around a blunt question politician style), but I have just lost faith in the guy overall.

As I have with many other generals as I've watched them lie, distort facts and play politics instead of lead which makes me wonder if they are incompetent or liars.....either way, not people I'd want in charge.

I said the same thing back in August. Glad to hear I'm not the only guy who has this opinion.

[sqwatch]

I said the same thing back in August. Glad to hear I'm not the only guy who has this opinion.

Total validation!

[Magellan]

You also realize he is the only service chief in the last decade that has had to deal with sequestration, and his budget and man power being slashed while not expecting any reduction in bases, aircraft, or mission capability.

He gave a speech today at Creech, and he cares but he doesn't have the resources to make everyone (or anyone) happy. He is straight forward, and willing to discuss anything. But he was also willing to put people in their place from a SSgt, to a Major, to the friggin wing commander (in front of his wing) when they asked questions about "why are we getting worked so hard" and he told them "everyone everywhere is getting worked hard...it isn't just here. So any bodies or resources I move are getting taken from somewhere else." That said, he also pointed out that he is robbing Peter to pay Paul to get us some help and that the COMACC will be working hand in hand with him.

He has been given a heaping pile of manure and he is doing what he can to hand out palatable sh*t sandwiches, because that is all he has to offer. If you don't like it blame/contact your elected officials.

[Azimuth]

He gave a similar speech to all us SNCO's last March at Altus. I still have faith with him because he honestly cares about the people and the USAF.. Skeletor left him with a shit pile and that's all he's had to work with.

Edited March 25, 2015 by Azimuth

[Nineline]

"The takeaways are startling. Welsh can’t fix the Air Force’s pilot shortage. He can’t even hire more babysitters to watch the kids while the adults fight terrorists. His honesty is refreshing, but no chaser can wash away the taste of inevitable mediocrity."

Hold the line: Welsh tells Creech there is no help on the way

-9-

[Magellan]

"The takeaways are startling. Welsh can’t fix the Air Force’s pilot shortage. He can’t even hire more babysitters to watch the kids while the adults fight terrorists. His honesty is refreshing, but no chaser can wash away the taste of inevitable mediocrity."

Hold the line: Welsh tells Creech there is no help on the way

-9-

In my opinion his article doesn't reflect reality. Having been there and heard what Welsh had to say I think Tony Carr missed the mark, and he has lot all credibility with me. The spin on that blog article is sickening. I can only assume the rest of his articles are a similar mix of half truths pandering to upset people to make them more upset.

Welsh was honest and told us he was going to fix what he could, but that he couldn't fix everything some people saw as a problem due to budget and man power constraints. As far as him saying "No help is on the way" that couldn't be farther from the truth. He is fighting for us all the way up to the Sec Def along with Gen. Carlisle which is a good start. When Hostage was running ACC he pretty much spit in the face of any RPA guy he could every chance he got i.e. his speech at the 2012 Nellis/Creech/NTTR Air Force Ball.

The other thing that no one asked is what is being done at Cannon? Creech's quality of life is still infinitely better than the RPA guys at Cannon.

[Napoleon_Tanerite]

Compare contrast the tone of this thread with the A-10 thread, then realize we're talking about the same person here. The intellectual dishonesty surrounding divestment efforts for the A-10 is not happening in a vacuum, nor is it spontaneous.

[guineapigfury]

When Hostage was running ACC he pretty much spit in the face of any RPA guy he could every chance he got i.e. his speech at the 2012 Nellis/Creech/NTTR Air Force Ball.

Could you enlighten us on that speech?

Back on topic: there is probably nothing Welsh can do to fix the RPA manning problem in the short or medium term. Being an RPA pilot sucks, so people with options are going to leave. The options on the civilian side are going to increase. Quality of life for people wearing flightsuits inside shipping containers isn't going to increase any time soon. This problem is going to get alot worse before it gets better.

[SurelySerious]

It's also possible he wrote the article based on what he was told was said.

[Warrior]

It's also possible he wrote the article based on what he was told was said.

I'm going to go with this

[Dupe]

What keeps the AF from contracting out RPA operators? Sure, you want a mil dude to pull the trigger, but that has to be roughly 0.5% of total time logged...

Within the DoD, we have contractor-operated RPAs and ISR platforms.

Edited March 30, 2015 by Dupe

[Magellan]

What keeps the AF from contracting out RPA operators? Sure, you want a mil dude to pull the trigger, but that has to be roughly 0.5% of total time logged...

Within the DoD, we have contractor-operated RPAs and ISR platforms.

They have.... Follow that link and search for Creech AFB.

[17D_guy]

It's ok, there's some higher rank Space & Cyber Officers that think we can contract out the "no kidding keyboard ninjas" as well and just do base support and be able to grow a Ops culture. I mean, contractors are good at building a sustainment life-cycle for grooming "air-mindedness" leaders right?

Works for RPA's, should work for Cyber too. I mean, Snowden was just a fluke and a Cyber-O who's done base support & staff his/her whole career can just waltz into a AOC and be able to advocate for Offensive Cyber capabilities. That's what you pilots do, just stare at the unclass version of your TTP's and then get to a planning process and advocate like competent professionals.

There's also the argument that as O's we shouldn't be doing any of the technical stuff and just advise the enlisted 1B4's.

I imagine the frustrations the 17#'s in my year group are feeling are a little like what the AAF felt like in the beginning as well. The arguments of finding MAJCOM and Staff jobs for cyber officers as a reason to not move forward (because then who would become a General?) start to grate. We don't need 20 Cyber generals! How many EWO generals, CRO, or other small, highly technical and specialized career-field Generals are there? Build the mission with competent leaders and the culture will grow and sustain itself.

Sorry.. ranting again. I think I'm just going to start a Cyber Thread and answer some questions there.

[Fuzz]

Sorry.. ranting again. I think I'm just going to start a Cyber Thread and answer some questions there.

[deaddebate]

Gen Welsh spoke to the AFA at a monthly event. Here's the AF news link: propaganda

https://www.af.mil/News/ArticleDisplay/tabid/223/Article/583428/csaf-discusses-air-forces-need-to-reset.aspx

And the actual speech if you want to listen (it's about 80 minutes long):

https://secure.afa.org/events/Breakfasts/Breakfast-4-2-15-GenWelsh.mp3

He begins with typical speech material, meaning recent successes and changes, including: review of PME material with re-focus on core values, total force inclusion in training and readiness vs the tiered readiness mind-set of other services, increasing importance of job performance in EPR, resetting Air Force priorities due to limited future resources in an unpredictable world, Capstone week at BMT, new Profession of Arms Center of Excellence (PACE) at Lackland, Total Force Commission Program at Maxwell, and landing a 4-Star slot for the AF Global Strike Command for re-emphasis and leadership in the nuclear enterprise. He also states the intention of setting written expectations/milestones for Officer's advanced/master’s degree or other course completions for promotion vice the current word-of-mouth guesswork and unit-level standards. Also that job performance should be the top deciding factor for retention/promotion of Officers.

At 21:00, he talks about something like the end of "live virtual constructive training" and transitioning to "virtual constructive" training first with live training supplementing it. I don't really understand what he's talking about. I assume it's all pilot training. Could somebody tell me what the hell this is?

Next there's the need for inter-industry communication with DOD and acquisition and development reform. Then he speaks about the 2020 deadline for the Budget Control Act/sequestration--nothing really new there. He re-emphasizes the end of Force Management Programs (re-sizing) measures for AF, saying Airmen shouldn't be distracted by these now peripheral concerns.

Here's my key quote of his whole speech, discussing the major problems of internal communication with Airmen:

Somewhere in the middle, supervisors, commanders, leaders, all the way up to me, have got to be more aggressive about getting information to their people. And those people can't sit back and wait for it to appear on their phone. They've got to take accountability for finding information because it's out there and it's not that hard to find. So we're trying to fix this problem.

This is exactly why I read the speeches, publications, and hearings about the Air Force, communicate with my local leadership, track myPers releases, and follow what my Career Field Manager says. It's all there, and you can be leagues ahead of your peers if you stay connected. AF Times is as worthwhile as used toilet paper. Get your information from the source, filter it through your bullshit detector, piece it together with previous information, and you're greatly empowered.

This leads splendidly to his next point: pay and compensation concerns. He says that military compensation over last 12 years has increased about 40 percent, and the AF can't continue on that same cost-growth curve. He says we need a manageable growth rate. Let's compare that old line from the previous NDAA discussions that compensation is devouring our budget by comparing the Base Pay of an E-6 at 8 years and an O-4 at 10 years from 2000 (pre-9/11), 2003 (his "last 12 years" citation) and 2015.

Yr: 2000 / E-6 @ 8: 1932.60 / O-4 @ 10: 4040.40 | Yr: 2003 / E-6 @ 8: 2400.90 / O-4 @ 10: 4954.50 | Yr: 2015 / E-6 @ 8: 3261.00 / O-4 @ 10: 6659.10

Pay increase for an E-6 between 2000 and 2003 was 19.5%. Pay increase for an E-6 between 2003 and 2015 was 26.3%. Pay increase for an E-6 between 2000 and 2015 was 40.7%.

Pay increase for an O-4 between 2000 and 2003 was 18.4%. Pay increase for an O-4 between 2003 and 2015 was 25.6%. Pay increase for an O-4 between 2000 and 2015 was 39.3%.

That seems pretty reasonable right? 40% is not chump change. Well compare that to the USD inflation and you tell me.

Between 2000 and 2003, inflation was 6.9%. Between 2003 and 2015, inflation was 27.6%. Between 2000 and 2015, inflation was 36.3%.

Here are some pretty charts to visualize my point.

What happened between 2000 and 2003? 9/11 drove an enormous increase in funding and recruiting. We had major overhauls and increases of benefits due to the huge demands on the military and sweeping nationalism. Afterwards, pay crept back to a comparable level with inflation. When Gen Welsh says compensation increased 40% over 12 years, he's just repeating the false statistics spun in the FY14 and FY15 NDAA shenanigans. In truth, we must look back 15 years for that 40% increase and all that was just to keep pace with inflation. The last 12 years pay increases have been slightly BELOW the inflation average.

And the DOD must maintain these benefit increases if they want to continue to compete with a now rapidly growing economy and an aggressive airline industry, as discussed in congressional testimony I previously quoted.

Finally, at 1:12:00 through 1:18:00 is Gen Welsh's rebuttal to JQP about Creech and the "suck it up" misquote. JQP has since mad a small correction to his blog to correct any confusion. Gen Welsh was certainly fired-up about it.

[11F]

At 21:00, he talks about something like the end of "live virtual constructive training" and transitioning to "virtual constructive" training first with live training supplementing it. I don't really understand what he's talking about. I assume it's all pilot training. Could somebody tell me what the hell this is?

This is the same thing Generals Hostage and Carlisle have been saying. This relates to the CAF. With 4th gen and previous aircraft, you could mostly get away with training full up on the Nellis and Alaska ranges for LFEs.

However, with the introduction of 5th gen platforms, this is no longer the case; the paradigm has to shift IRT training. Due to the speeds, stealth, and our need to keep our best kept secrets secret (this statement about secrets covers a lot of justifiable info not appropriate for this forum), we can no longer be "full up" on the live ranges. The high end train like you fight exercises must be done with 1s and 0s. Therefore, virtual constructive must be the first priority for high end training.

Live training will be used for the building blocks of BFM, ACM, etc. There also will be live LFEs where airmen test their ability to safely orchestrate a fight (think airspace deconfliction where your actual body is on the line and getting the taxi timing right so the EOR doesn't clog up and make someone miss the push).

And so Gen Welsh says that LVC must become VCL in terms of priorities in the 5th gen CAF training world.

[brabus]

So in dumb pilot speak, is this to say at least 5th gen should prioritize more weight of training effort to the "virtual" side in order to take advantage of full system capes? I'm well aware of all the "we can't go full up" limfacs, but no sim will ever replace the training available in live fly, even if there's some "trick fucking the system" that has to be done. Sims are great training tools, but they belong in the 10-20% max category when it comes to training allocation.