nsplayr Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 (edited) One of numerous stories on the ongoing protests in Egypt. Figured it's an appropriate topic since Egypt is both a big U.S. ally in the region & also unfortunately has quite an iron-fisted regeime. For all the talk of us supporting freedom we need stability too and those competing interests have put us in a tough spot. Thoughts on implications for U.S. interests? Edited January 29, 2011 by nsplayr
Tank Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 Big thing currently in my opinion is that there are over 90,000 Americans living in Egypt and around the Cairo/Alexandria areas and currently the U.S. has not ordered their evacuation. I guess when that order comes through we know the sh*t has really hit the fan with no sign of recovery.
Herk Driver Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 Evacuating 90K people is a tall order and takes time (along with some indication that the shit is hitting the fan). I think we were caught off guard and are "hoping" for the best right now.
nsplayr Posted January 29, 2011 Author Posted January 29, 2011 Question is though, what conditions would warrant a mass evacuation? The current government is an ally of ours, but that's not to say the next government won't be. Unlike say Vietnam when our allies were getting their assess handed to them by a mutual enemy, I don't think any of us knows who will take over if Mubarak is thrown out. I think this is my greatest concern for the region: We've all seen what happens when mummies get disturbed...
pawnman Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 I remember reading an opinion piece a while back, prior to the Egypt protests. The thrust was that, in this area of the world, the US is in a tough spot. We have authoritarian governments who are at least notionally friendly to our interests...but we also support democracy. And the fear for a long time has been that one of these countries, with the huge influence that Islam has on the culture, will elect religious leadership. Perhaps even radical Islamic leadership. Which is not friendly to US interests. Do I personally believe that is what's happening in Egypt? I don't know. I'm not a foreign policy expert. I do wonder, though, between Egypt and Tunisia, is this just the start of something that will sweep across Northern Africa and the gulf? The Saudis are already saying the protesters in Egypt are plants to undermine the faith in the Saudi government. Probably about as believable as Israel dumping sharks in Egypt's tourist hot spots, but it does speak to the fear other governments in the region have. The protests are already destabilizing the regional economy...Saudi's stock exchange has dropped more than 6% since the protests started. It'll be interesting to watch it play out. Hopefully it can get resolved without too much additional violence.
Herk Driver Posted January 29, 2011 Posted January 29, 2011 That's close to what is / could happen in Lebanon.
nsplayr Posted January 29, 2011 Author Posted January 29, 2011 (edited) I do wonder, though, between Egypt and Tunisia, is this just the start of something that will sweep across Northern Africa and the gulf? This is exactly the problem. Despite talk about al-Qaeda "hating us for our freedom," their real beef is with our support for dictatorial Arab regimes and for U.S. troops basing/operating on historically Muslim lands. Our long and deep (sts) partnership with Mubarak is going to be a problem if some of the more radical elements in Egypt gain power, and the same situation exists for many of the other Arab nations this could spread to. That's close to what is / could happen in Lebanon. Are you talking about the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war? I'm thinking a closer potential parallel is Iran circa 1979; seems that the Egyptian protests aren't as ideologically fueled but I'm no expert and it's hard to know how this is going to turn out. Edit to add: CNN reporting looters on motorcycles are wielding samurai swords...now those guys are ready for the Zombie Apocalypse! Edited January 29, 2011 by nsplayr
Skyclops Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 In Bush's memoirs Decision Points, he had some interesting stuff to say about Egypt and the Middle East in the context of his Freedom Agenda. I was hopeful that Egypt would be a leader for freedom and reform in the Arab world, just as it had been a leader for peace under Anwar Sadat a generation before. Unfortunately, after a promising presidential election in 2005 that included opposition candidates, the government cracked down during the legislative elections later that year, jailing dissidents and bloggers who advocated a democratic alternative. Sounds familiar. He goes on to talk about democratic failures in Russia, Venezuela, and other known dictatorships. My hope is that America will continue to stand with the dissidents and freedom advocates... Their plight can look bleak, but it is not hopeless. As I said in my Second Inaugural Address, the freedom agenda demands "the concentrated work of generations." Once change arrives, it often moves quickly, as the world saw in the European revolutions of 1989 and rapid transformation of East Asia after World War II. He goes on to talk about democratic reforms and progress throughout the Middle East and how far it has come during his presidency. It will take decades for the changes set in motion in recent years to be fully realized. There will be setbacks along the way. But I am confident in the destination: The people of the Middle East will be free, and America will be more secure as a result. I can get behind that (sts).
Guest Scooby Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 Unfortunately, the new VP (who I suspect will be the President in the near future) is the head of the intelligence service. It'll be more of the same. As much as I would love for a truly representative democracy to take hold in Egypt, I don't see it happening. Mubarak will be gone soon but the new regime will be just like the old one. But the protests have definitely sent shock waves throughout the Arab world...corrupt leaders will no longer be able to take complete advantage of their people.
nsplayr Posted January 30, 2011 Author Posted January 30, 2011 (edited) I seriously doubt Soliman (said intel chief now VP) will actually make it to power. I think this thing is going down big time unless the Army starts really bloody crackdowns ASAP. If they hedge or even join the protesters as has happened in some places, the whole regime is done for and who knows whats next. ElBaradei seems ok in principle because he's an educated, articulate, moderate with lots of experience on the world stage, but A) he's not that connected to the people on the streets since he's been abroad so long and so recently returned, and B) he's not exactly thrilled with U.S. policy in Egypt the last few decades, so no one knows how he'd move forward WRT us. Edited January 30, 2011 by nsplayr
Herk Driver Posted January 30, 2011 Posted January 30, 2011 Are you talking about the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war? I'm thinking a closer potential parallel is Iran circa 1979; seems that the Egyptian protests aren't as ideologically fueled but I'm no expert and it's hard to know how this is going to turn out. No, I was referring to the quote below. I should have been clearer. Lebanon and its current regime are close to this now. And the fear for a long time has been that one of these countries, with the huge influence that Islam has on the culture, will elect religious leadership. Perhaps even radical Islamic leadership. Which is not friendly to US interests.
Vertigo Posted January 31, 2011 Posted January 31, 2011 Big thing currently in my opinion is that there are over 90,000 Americans living in Egypt and around the Cairo/Alexandria areas and currently the U.S. has not ordered their evacuation. I guess when that order comes through we know the sh*t has really hit the fan with no sign of recovery. Charter flights to carry thousands of Americans out of Egypt
pawnman Posted February 1, 2011 Posted February 1, 2011 Charter flights to carry thousands of Americans out of Egypt And if CNN was correct, the people fleeing Egypt have to pay for their own tickets. Wonder how much a ticket out of a place like Egypt costs when something like this goes down?
HiFlyer Posted February 1, 2011 Posted February 1, 2011 (edited) And if CNN was correct, the people fleeing Egypt have to pay for their own tickets. Wonder how much a ticket out of a place like Egypt costs when something like this goes down? The US govt charters the aircraft, you reimburse the govt. Last time I was cognizant of something like this it wasn't too bad...something like $300 a seat, but it depends on what the govt pays and how far they take you. Don't expect 38" pitch seats! Edited February 1, 2011 by HiFlyer
nrodgsxr Posted February 1, 2011 Posted February 1, 2011 The US govt charters the aircraft, you reimburse the govt. Last time I was cognizant of something like this it wasn't too bad...something like $300 a seat, but it depends on what the govt pays and how far they take you. Don't expect 38" pitch seats! I'm thinking they wouldn't care if it was a herk taking them home at this point.
contraildash Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Horses and camels? pppssshhh...easy solution:
SurelySerious Posted February 3, 2011 Posted February 3, 2011 Vodafone: Egypt forced us to send text messages Literally forced? As in they went and strong-armed you to push the send button? This seems more accurate: Vodafone accuses Egyptian government of co-opting network Vodafone said the Egyptian authorities had instructed the mobile networks of Mobinil, Etisalat and Vodafone to send messages to the people of Egypt and had been doing so since the protests broke out against President Hosni Mubarak's 30-year-rule.One text message sent on February 2 and seen by Reuters announced the location and timing for a mass demonstration to support Mubarak However they word it, that's pretty messed up. It sounds like Vodafone could refuse to send the message, but they won't because then they would lose their business in Egypt.
Fuzz Posted July 3, 2013 Posted July 3, 2013 (edited) https://www.theblaze....up-is-underway/ Looks like Morsi is out. ETA: Live video of Tahrir Square https://www.times-standard.com/digitalextras/ci_23588344/live-egypt-protests-tahrir-square-military-deadline-closes Edited July 3, 2013 by Fuzz
HU&W Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 Possible NEO reported in some of the asian papers, but none of the US sources yet.
Fuzz Posted July 4, 2013 Posted July 4, 2013 The Washington post and AP both had articles mentioning non-essential personnel leaving.
WAG Posted July 5, 2013 Posted July 5, 2013 Democracy/Republicanism will not work in the Middle East (unless your country is called Israel). They have no history of a civil society and tolerance. It doesn't matter who steps in next. It's going to be the "same shit, different day" over there. I'll put the over/under on another revolt and uprising at 4 years.
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