Non Continuation for passed over Majs

[Rusty Pipes]

The bummer of this whole mess is that everyone knows that if you get passed over twice that you can get kicked out, but when was the last time they decided to not offer continuation for not making Lt Col? They have pretty much offered it to everyone and now just stopped with no warning! I know several guys who were offered continuation through 20 as Capts! 5 yrs ago there weren't a ton of folks getting hired to fly on the outside and of course the economy wasn't the best, so the majority of these folks might have stayed in anyway. The problem now is that there are going to be plenty of flying jobs on the outside and these guys hitting 10 yrs have been getting bent over with TDYs and deployments the entire time. Just the fact alone that the airlines are going to start hiring again in significant numbers would have hit the AF pilot force pretty hard, but now Big Blue hasn't given them ANY incentive to stay. In fact, I'd say they are actually giving them an incentive to leave. The Guard and Res are going to be lucky enough to be flooded with talent because I think most people learned the biggest lesson of post 9/11 separations to fly for the airlines is to keep your day job! AD is going to be definitely hurting for experienced pilots in a few years, especially with this back door RIF.

Another unintended consequence... with continuation possibly ending and a lot of folks leaving at the end of their ADSC there are going to be a lot less bodies to put in the CAOC and OEF deployments. Are 365s going to be the new norm for everyone in the AF now? Not helping the "stay in the AF" recruitment team any! AFPC also just non-vol'd anyone with 120 gates to staff this year (few exceptions). Are they going to have to turn around next year and drag those folks back to the cockpit? I'm sure many would rather go back to fly, but what a pain to have to PCS again so soon.

It is easy enough to sit here and say how dumb they are for doing these things and we may very well not have the Big Picture, but Big Blue has proven one thing over and over and over again... we LOVE to repeat mistakes!!!

Edited June 20, 2011 by Rusty Pipes

[Guest]

The shit sandwiches that the AF has continued to shove down our collective throats have got me pretty bummed about my future in the AF and I am just a junior Capt. I am curious how the old(er) heads on here think this will play out in the long run. Will the pendulum swing back in a few years and the AF will realize it doesn't have enough O-5/O-6's and everybody with a pulse will get promoted? Or is this really the way of the future?

The USAF uses bang bang guidance on personnel matters. It is the way of the future and the past.

Don't let it get you down. Bloom where you're planted and things will work out. Stay optimistic and persistent. The person who can successfully chart their career from start to finish is rare indeed but the person who can enjoy a full and satisfying career with a few surprises thrown in is not.

[Chuck17]

The USAF uses bang bang guidance on personnel matters. It is the way of the future and the past. Don't let it get you down. Bloom where you're planted and things will work out. Stay optimistic and persistent.

Shack.

I had a long talk with one of my mentors about this stuff today, and included the concerns expressed here. He said essentially the exact thing that Rainman said, and has weathered the ups and downs of the same course we are on for the last 28 years. Amazing the perspective when you find a guy who's BTDT and is willing to offer advice. Bang-Bang Guidance is a great way to put it...

One note to add:

In the opinion of said individual, you'd better be willing to sprint the rest of the time you're in if you plan on staying to 20 and beyond. There is no rest, there is no "I have arrived" assignment. Those moments come and are much like brushing past someone in a crowd - in a flash, they are gone, time to get back to business. It's not the end of the world if you don't get school on your major's board - your career prostects arent sunk unless you believe they are.

Im interested about the coming 2-3 years in light of the coming hiring thaw WRT the airlines. We aren't there yet, but it's coming. There will be plenty of work for all of us to do, and some will realize they don't want to stay on over all the BS and multiple deployments and missed family time and BS non-mission, non-kinetic horseshit that goes along with staying. I can't blame anyone for that. I don't think ill of them in the slightest. Staying on as a career is real bitch. More would do it if it wasn't. In light of this recent corn-holling the experienced past-over dudes received, I'm sure there are plenty of dudes out there that are having serious doubts about staying in, taking the bonus or even making it a career...

I'm not surprised that young dudes are worried about getting queep done. That's what they see OLD DUDES worried about. Right or wrong, you have to know your shit in the jet, be an EP/IP/WIC dude, get your masters, do your school, get the right job opportunities and strats if you can if you want to stay and get promoted. There's no way around it. Bloom where you're planted, don't bitch about where you grow. The rest is all timing, and ultimately timing is everything (Rule #2). When all else fails, FIDO - Fuck It, Drive On.

This is also the time (Sr Capt - Major) that the careerists start to show their true colors. They bust out the industrial strength knee pads and go to work. Friends who were once friends will turn out not so friendly - what Boyd was talking about in his "To Be or To Do" speech. I've seen it and it sucks.

As was said before, I think the take rate on the bonus in the coming 2-3 years will be very telling indeed. If the bonus goes away, watch out - the flood gates will open. Right now, the leadership knows that they have to get to numbers closer to what T. Mike attempted all those years ago - 316,000 - 320,000. Money is running short - the country is broke, mired in 3 wars we can't seem to end. There will be a continuing shrinking personnel, training and infrastructure footprint...

If you've got a senior guy whose ear you can bend and bring this subject up, I highly encourage you to do so - Old dudes offer great learning.

Chuck

Edited June 20, 2011 by Chuck17

[Bergman]

The bummer of this whole mess is that everyone knows that if you get passed over twice that you can get kicked out, but when was the last time they decided to not offer continuation for not making Lt Col? They have pretty much offered it to everyone and now just stopped with no warning! I know several guys who were offered continuation through 20 as Capts! 5 yrs ago there weren't a ton of folks getting hired to fly on the outside and of course the economy wasn't the best, so the majority of these folks might have stayed in anyway. The problem now is that there are going to be plenty of flying jobs on the outside and these guys hitting 10 yrs have been getting bent over with TDYs and deployments the entire time. Just the fact alone that the airlines are going to start hiring again in significant numbers would have hit the AF pilot force pretty hard, but now Big Blue hasn't given them ANY incentive to stay. In fact, I'd say they are actually giving them an incentive to leave. The Guard and Res are going to be lucky enough to be flooded with talent because I think most people learned the biggest lesson of post 9/11 separations to fly for the airlines is to keep your day job! AD is going to be definitely hurting for experienced pilots in a few years, especially with this back door RIF.

Another unintended consequence... with continuation possibly ending and a lot of folks leaving at the end of their ADSC there are going to be a lot less bodies to put in the CAOC and OEF deployments. Are 365s going to be the new norm for everyone in the AF now? Not helping the "stay in the AF" recruitment team any! AFPC also just non-vol'd anyone with 120 gates to staff this year (few exceptions). Are they going to have to turn around next year and drag those folks back to the cockpit? I'm sure many would rather go back to fly, but what a pain to have to PCS again so soon.

It is easy enough to sit here and say how dumb they are for doing these things and we may very well not have the Big Picture, but Big Blue has proven one thing over and over and over again... we LOVE to repeat mistakes!!!

Dude, don't know what rock you've been hiding under but glad you're here. You saved me a shitload of time typing in a lot of the same comments. Shack to you, sir.

If you've got a senior guy whose ear you can bend and bring this subject up, I highly encourage you to do so - Old dudes offer great learning.

Chuck, you know the bitch of it is that there aren't that many old dudes around any more - especially in the flyign squadrons! The really sad (or perhaps good?) part is that people come here to get sound career advice.

Agree with everything you said in your post.

[Rusty Pipes]

Shack.

As was said before, I think the take rate on the bonus in the coming 2-3 years will be very telling indeed. If the bonus goes away, watch out - the flood gates will open. Right now, the leadership knows that they have to get to numbers closer to what T. Mike attempted all those years ago - 316,000 - 320,000. Money is running short - the country is broke, mired in 3 wars we can't seem to end. There will be a continuing shrinking personnel, training and infrastructure footprint...

Great points Chuck, but here is the $120K question... Why now? There are targeted goals of getting down to these numbers, but the AF has no idea how many folks they are going to be losing in the next year or so. I'll tell you one thing though, if the line down the street and around the corner for pilots who put in for this latest VSP train wreck was any indication then our pilot force is going to get decimated of experience (Of course the SECAF being surprised that so many pilots applied for VSP should tell you that senior management doesn't quite get it). I'd say the hundreds of pilots who were hoodwinked into applying before being told they weren't going to be considered are pretty much out the door at their first opportunity.

A buddy of mine in the Res said he called the local ATP guy to get that knocked out as he is starting to put his stuff together to put in apps in the next year. The guy had to put him on a wait list because he was already pretty booked for most of the summer... mostly AD guys! Obviously nobody is going to be advertising that they are going to be jumping ship at 10 yrs, so we won't know until it actually happens, but I think Big Blue jumped the gun on this one and will have to turn around in the next 1-3 yrs and have to pay these same guys to come back.

Let me just throw this out there as food for thought. I did my fraud, waste, and abuse throw away Masters research paper on the FAA raising the pilot retirement age from 60 to 65 and actually learned a lot about airline hiring. Prior to 9/11 the airlines obviously hired from two pools... military trained pilots and those who either originally went to an aviation school (Embry Riddle, South Dakota, etc) or just did it the really hard way of paying their way up through the ratings from FBO's etc. The aviation schools are really expensive since you have to pay for the actual flying on top of the normal tuition and since 9/11 there have been very few jobs out there... naturally their enrollments went way down and hasn't improved much in the past 8+ yrs. Why would you pay a lot of extra money for 4 yrs knowing there was no chance of getting a job when you graduated? So what was probably closer to a 50-50 hiring group between civilian and military is now pretty much going to be mostly military. I wasn't a math major, but this is what I see...

10 yr Maj w/ 3,000 hrs + 9 yrs of shitty deployments + good dudes getting booted at 15 yrs + Southwest hiring + Res job = Mass Exodus and a Decimated Pilot Force

[zach braff]

Demand for airline pilots set to soar

[Rusty Pipes]

In my opinion, this is the first good post you've made.

That said, timing is individual and is something generally out of all of our control. However, by following the other advice in this thread of "bloom where you're planted," you will be able to maximize your opportunities granted by your particular timing situation.

I know a shit ton of officers who had great careers (some 20+, some <20) because they were able to do that. It may not be your plan, but you will be a happier individual in life if you can do this.

"bloom where you're planted", huh? I don't know if you've noticed, but not much grows in the desert ! It definitely is about making the best of your situation though and just hoping that your timing is right. A lot of that timing will also depend on who your boss is at the time. I've seen that one go both ways! I've seen Dude X who was on a fast track to nowhere suddenly become the greatest thing in the world because the new Sq CC happended to be from the same ROTC Detachment 20 yrs ago. I've also seen Dude Y who was the shit hot pilot/officer go from strated OG/Wing OPRs to nothing and get passed over a year later because for some reason the new guy just didn't like him. For the most part I've seen guys be able to accept that and be happy to just ride it out to 20 knowing that at least as a crew dog they can train the new guys to be the best pilots they can be... well, that was until last week.

[Hacker]

What timeframe would most of the non-continued O-4s we're talking about in this thread have to separate (in terms of calendar year, not years of service).

[Rusty Pipes]

What timeframe would most of the non-continued O-4s we're talking about in this thread have to separate (in terms of calendar year, not years of service).

The guys I know were told they would be out by 30 Nov. I don't know if that means anytime between now and then or if that is the actual date.

[LUGNUT]

From my paperwork: "the law requires that you retire no later than 30 Nov 2011". That date has already been uploaded into my Personnel Data System on AF Portal.

[Rusty Pipes]

Does anyone know the actual numbers of folks who are being kicked out because of this? Anyone have any inside baseball as to whether or not this is the new standard? In other words, can the guys passed over this last board count on 30 Nov 12 as their last day in the Air Force? I'm guessing that Big Blue won't show their cards on this one to keep their options open.

[Guest Sandlapper]

Does anyone know the actual numbers of folks who are being kicked out because of this? Anyone have any inside baseball as to whether or not this is the new standard? In other words, can the guys passed over this last board count on 30 Nov 12 as their last day in the Air Force? I'm guessing that Big Blue won't show their cards on this one to keep their options open.

As I recall in the CSAF's last letter regarding Force Shaping (late 2010?), he mentioned "limited opportunities for selective continuation" as a consequence of record-high retention. Granted, no specifics given then, but the foreshadowing was there. It's likely safe to assume they'll keep this as an option, but the upcoming RIF may get them close to the officer end-strength number they're looking for.

[ThreeHoler]

This one?

Fellow Airmen:

Secretary Donley and I are proud of the tremendous contributions you make every day to secure our nation. We recognize and appreciate the sacrifices that are asked of you and your family. Now, the Secretary and I must make a difficult decision for the health of the Air Force family.

Air Force retention is at a 15-year high, despite an incredibly robust operations tempo. We are nearly 5,000 Airmen above our authorized, funded end strength ceiling. Career fields are overmanned in certain year groups, while at the same time, we have critical manning shortages in some of our most stressed career fields and mission areas. We must correct these overages and skill imbalances by sizing and shaping our force within our authorized, funded ceiling.

As you know, in November 2009 we offered a variety of voluntary measures aimed at reducing personnel numbers. Unfortunately, not enough people took advantage of those programs. Thus we had to make the tough decision to move forward on a plan to shrink the active duty force by almost 3 percent.

Although it will be a challenging time, our goal is to minimize the impact on Airmen currently serving. We are reducing accessions for both officers and enlisted Airmen while expanding voluntary separation and retirement

programs to try and protect those currently serving. Where possible, we will cross-flow Airmen from overmanned career fields into those that are undermanned, and, where appropriate, we will implement involuntary measures.

More information on this multi-tiered force management effort is available on the Air Force Personnel Center website. Voluntary programs will allow personnel to leave the service immediately; non-voluntary programs will start this summer with departures targeted for no later than April 2011. I encourage all of you to go to the AFPC website and review the programs that may impact you and your families.

Please know the Secretary and I have carefully considered every option, but in the end, arrived at the conclusion that these force management initiatives are necessary. We must operate within our means. Our commitment - and the commitment of leadership at all levels - is that we will do everything we can to assist those transitioning to the next phase of their careers.

NORTON A. SCHWARTZ

General, USAF

Chief of Staff

https://www.acc.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-100325-035.pdf

[Guest Hueypilot812]

...we offered a variety of voluntary measures aimed at reducing personnel numbers. Unfortunately, not enough people took advantage of those programs.

Nice. So when you try it again, you offer those programs and then denied the bulk of the applications.

[Rusty Pipes]

Nice. So when you try it again, you offer those programs and then denied the bulk of the applications.

Of course... lets kick out the people who want to stay in and keep the people who want to get out. I've got a better idea, lets take the people who are pissed off and fed up with the whole program that want out and then pretend we're gonna let them out to see how much more disgruntled we can make them. Apparently morale and retention was way too high!

[Guest Sandlapper]

This one?

No...this one. It was an email sent out in Feb of this year:

Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 6:57 AM

Subject: FY11 Force Management Program

Fellow Airmen,

Secretary Donley and I recognize and appreciate the tremendous sacrifices

asked of you and your family, and we are proud of your exceptional

contributions to our nation in a time of war.

As you may recall, last March, the Secretary and I announced a Force

Management Plan intended to size and shape the officer and enlisted force to

align the Air Force within our congressionally authorized personnel ceiling.

Through the Force Management actions we took last year, we met our enlisted

goal in FY10; however, we remain approximately 2,300 officers above our

authorized ceiling.

Our Air Force is now at a 16-year high in retention at a time when we

already exceed authorized personnel strength levels. It is for this reason

that the Secretary and I made the difficult, but fiscally responsible,

decision to continue Force Management measures. This will not be easy, and

we do not take this decision lightly.

First, in an effort to minimize the impact to our current force, we will

reduce active duty accessions as much as prudent. In addition to the

previously announced voluntary programs, we will also implement involuntary

programs to include enlisted date of separation rollbacks, officer retention

boards, and reduced officer promotion opportunities. Our over strength

situation is such that offers of selective continuation for twice deferred

officers may be limited. More information on this multi-tiered Force

Management Plan is available on the Air Force Personnel Center website and

will be communicated by your base-level Force Support Squadrons in the near

future.

This is a difficult time. The results of last year's reductions are no doubt

affecting units and lives across our Air Force family. With a very

talented, all-volunteer force answering our nation's call in a variety of

global commitments, it is not easy to select Airmen for early transition

from the active duty force.

For those of you choosing or selected to transition from active duty, I

sincerely thank you for your service and encourage you to stay with our Air

Force family through our Guard and Reserve programs. Leaders at all levels

are committed to assisting you through transition to the next phase of your

careers, and our Airman and Family Readiness Centers are standing by with

valuable resources to support your transition.

As I stated last March, the Secretary and I have carefully considered all

options and their impacts. In the end, we arrived at the conclusion that

these additional force management measures are necessary for the Air Force

to reduce personnel strength to authorized levels over the next two years.

In short, we seek to do the difficult now in order to put this dilemma

behind us, returning to more predictable career paths for all Airmen.

NORTON A. SCHWARTZ

General, USAF

Chief of Staff

[sputnik]

I'm a little confused, I understand a bunch of dudes got passed over in this last go. But I thought you weren't separated until you got passed over twice? So is there a group of folks who got their second look this time and didn't get offered continuation? Or did people get separated after getting passed over the first time?

I think it's been covered already but I'm not seeing it so I apologize. I'm not tracking who's getting involuntarily separated--non selects for O4, non selects for O5, first look, second look.... Help?

[BitteEinBit]

No...this one. It was an email sent out in Feb of this year:

Sent: Wednesday, February 02, 2011 6:57 AM

Subject: FY11 Force Management Program

Fellow Airmen,

Secretary Donley (blah blah blah.... Our over strength

situation is such that offers of selective continuation for twice deferred

officers may be limited. .....in the near future.

This is a difficult time. The results of last year's reductions are no doubt

affecting units and lives across our Air Force family. With a very

talented, all-volunteer force answering our nation's call in a variety of

global commitments, it is not easy to select Airmen for early transition

from the active duty force.

NORTON A. SCHWARTZ

General, USAF

Chief of Staff

It has never been a secret that selective continuation was a "as needed" basis, in addition, I think we all agree that we need to make cuts to remain within our means, but make those cuts SMARTLY. Don't just use "if member is within 5 years of retirement by the board date" as a means to determine if you're going to cut people. I hate to make this a rated vs non-rated issue, but we are the Air Force, and flying is one of our primary missions. Personnel officers and Finance officers are important to our mission, but can I cut an FGO from those career fields and and probably replace them relatively quickly with a younger one and still do the mission? Yes, very easily. On the other hand, while we have very talented young pilots, it is a little more difficult to replace 15 years of flying experience and expect that you will be as effective and efficient in your mission. It takes a while to make a fighter pilot/flight lead and a seasoned aircraft commander on a C-17/C-130 etc. In addition, we rely pretty heavily on those experienced pilots to bring up the younger ones. So, letting rated officers (both pilots and navs) go just because they aren't within 5 years of retirement as of 7 March is not cutting SMARTLY...it is just "cutting to get my numbers to where my boss told me to get them." Forget operating within our "means" for a minute, if the reductions are "affecting units" then maybe you're not operating within your REQUIREMENTS.

Yes, I know there were specific AFSCs that were retained, but lets just think about the dynamics of one specific AFSC that appears to be adequately manned: the 11M. Have you thought about where T-38 trained pilots have been going over the past year or so? Thats right, they've been getting 11M assignments. If there is a projected fighter pilot shortage, do you think they are going to fill them with brand new UPT graduates, or will they (as they have in the past) have a fighter crossflow board? Where do you think they are going to get a lot of those crossflows? I'll take a guess...since they want need experience, they'll probably come from those T-38 trained pilots from that 11M career field that you keep cutting because TODAY it appears to be overmanned. There is a reason it appears to be overmanned, think about it.

AFPC, start thinking about manning 5 years down the road in addition to fixing your current relatively minor manning issue. You're going to have pretty major manning issues 5 years down the road because of how these drawdown intiatives are being mismanaged. Your 11Ms are going to be needed as long as we have ground forces in Afghanistan which will most likely be the case 5 years down the road. Don't just think about getting rid of 2000 officers by the end of FY12...Think about the messages you're sending with how you're making these cuts, think about the message that was sent to you during the VSP mismanagement earlier this year, think about how many of those "overmanned" (overworked) pilots may not stay as long as you think they will, think about the airline hiring spree...or better yet, just THINK.

Bit

[SuperWSO]

I'm a little confused, I understand a bunch of dudes got passed over in this last go. But I thought you weren't separated until you got passed over twice? So is there a group of folks who got their second look this time and didn't get offered continuation? Or did people get separated after getting passed over the first time?

I think it's been covered already but I'm not seeing it so I apologize. I'm not tracking who's getting involuntarily separated--non selects for O4, non selects for O5, first look, second look.... Help?

The people not being continued were up for their first look APZ for Lt Col. One look in the zone and one above makes two times deferred.

break, break For those who have expressed frustration with this policy, I found another outlet yesterday. Send an email to the Air Force Association. They generally push back when the Air Force does something short sighted and this definitely seems to fit. AFA is an advocacy organization, maybe they will take up the cause.

[zrooster99]

Just to add to the clarification (because I got this question when discussing the matter with some of my squadronmates), you potentially meet up to 4 O-5 boards. 2 Below, BTZ, IPZ and APZ. When you talk about being passed over twice, you're talking about IPZ and APZ. Also, for those who are not aware, you can generally expect to meet your 2 below board around 2 years after pinning on (depending on when you pin). It came a lot quicker than I expected...

Edited June 28, 2011 by zrooster99

[ClearedHot]

It came a lot quicker than I expected...

STS and your wife says you have a history of that.

[zrooster99]

STS and your wife says you have a history of that.

Yeah, but she never complains...

Edited July 3, 2011 by zrooster99

[Skitzo]

Conspiracy theory... how many passed over Majs not continued will it take before we plead for the DOD to change our retirment system to allow for some bennies prior to 20 years? Jeeze, maybe it is only a short term problem but dang. Guess that was the beauty of giving everyon a "regular" commission.

[pilot-99999]

Does anyone know the actual numbers of folks who are being kicked out because of this? Anyone have any inside baseball as to whether or not this is the new standard? In other words, can the guys passed over this last board count on 30 Nov 12 as their last day in the Air Force? I'm guessing that Big Blue won't show their cards on this one to keep their options open.

I forget the exact numbers but it was something like 157 were booted and 88 got to stay (of the 2x passed over Majors). There is an AF Times article that has the numbers (but that is about all it had of use)

[tcf2007]

I forget the exact numbers but it was something like 157 were booted and 88 got to stay (of the 2x passed over Majors). There is an AF Times article that has the numbers (but that is about all it had of use)

And they pointed out quite directly that no pilots were cut in this group, only nav's and non-rated officers. Just curious, how does that, the fact that they didnt push the pilot's out the door, affect everyone's thinking? It appears that the pilots in this group were getting the good deal, so might this not be reason for pilots to feel ok about staying in?