What's wrong with the Air Force?

[Chida]

I signed a SOU in 1998 when I first got to USAFA that read "Should I graduate USAFA, get selected for UPT, and graduate UPT, I understand that I am committed to a 10-year post-UPT ADSC." That was, in effect, a 16 year contract that I signed when I was 18 years old. It was too much, but I signed it anyway because what else was I going to do? They had me over a barrel. 13 years?! That equates to a 19 year contract! That is outrageous especially since it doesn't fix any systemic problems.

For the years 2010-2013, AF was peeing their pants about "record retention!" and in my opinion failed to notice that it was because (in large part) the 10-year ADSC was finally coming home to roost. Thus, AF was kicking people out with wild abandon. But that's what they want. They don't want people to have the freedom to leave. They want to pick and choose who they consider worthy to stay in. So the extended ADSC is not about manning, it's about power: Power to dismiss those they don't want (through RIF, 2x FOS, etc) and power to hold onto those they do want regardless of individuals' desires. This way AFPC doesn't have to plan ahead for anything (except the next RIF or promotion board).

Edited October 23, 2015 by Chida

[Clark Griswold]

glad there's an entire forum below dedicated to JQP stuff.  Where this article is already posted.

Valid quibble.

On the 13 year UPT commitment, seems an odd number but they could make it 15.5 years and they probably could fill the bucket still, aviation runs on dreams.

For the years 2010-2013, AF was peeing their pants about "record retention!" and in my opinion failed to notice that it was because (in large part) the 10-year ADSC was finally coming home to roost. Thus, AF was kicking people out with wild abandon. But that's what they want. They don't want people to have the freedom to leave. They want to pick and choose who they consider worthy to stay in. So the extended ADSC is not about manning, it's about power: Power to dismiss those they don't want (through RIF, 2x FOS, etc) and power to hold onto those they do want regardless of individuals' desires. This way AFPC doesn't have to plan ahead for anything (except the next RIF or promotion board).

Well said.

 

[icohftb]

13 year UPT commitment. Discuss.

is this speculation or based on anything official?

[Warrior]

The whole calculus changes when the retirement system goes to a 401k style with matching.

I wouldn't be thrilled with the longer commitment, but no one would be stuck since they're so close to 20 by the time their UPT commitment is up.

[HU&W]

The whole calculus changes when the retirement system goes to a 401k style with matching.

 

I wouldn't be thrilled with the longer commitment, but no one would be stuck since they're so close to 20 by the time their UPT commitment is up.

 

Agreed.  Cliff vesting is easily the most effective retention tool for mid-level members, both E and O.  That said, what's to stop the bean counters from deciding that 20 years is the magic payback number for the privilege of being a pilot?  Far fetched?  It's really not that much more than 13, and people will still line up.

[Jaded]

From what I've heard, a longer UPT ADSC is the only serious option being considered by HAF to "fix" the pilot retention problem.

 

For the cadets reading this, don't sign a 13 year contract or a 15 year contract. According to this year's retention statistics, > 50% of you will regret it.

[ThreeHoler]

From what I've heard, a longer UPT ADSC is the only serious option being considered by HAF to "fix" the pilot retention problem.

Checks.

[StoleIt]

I don't see this will stop cadets from gunning for pilot slots. I doubt it would have stopped me given my low level of knowledge and high level of blue kool aid.

And, sadly, this will be a decent band-aid stop gap for future manning. It's a lot easier to make, for all intents and purposes, 20 year slaves rather than fix retention properly by eliminating queep and making the job more appealing for those already in.

[Ram]

Plus, think of the bonus money it will save! Genius!

[Karl Hungus]

I don't see this will stop cadets from gunning for pilot slots. I doubt it would have stopped me given my low level of knowledge and high level of blue kool aid.

I get approached by about 3-5 people a year asking for advice on becoming an Air Force pilot.  I tell all of them that I can't in good faith recommend they go the active duty route.  If they can't go guard/reserve, it's not worth going at all.

I've been personally thanked by a few of them once they get to UPT and realize the bullet they dodged. 

[czecksikhs]

I'd have signed a 13/15/20 year ADSC as a cadet, and I hate the AF. I probably would have even been excited about it: guaranteed retirement!

[BFM this]

Plus, think of the bonus money it will save! Genius!

True: without a rewrite of the bonus, I don't think anyone would be eligible.

[billy pilgrim]

A longer commitment will retain pilots at significant costs of work force quality, morale and future recruitment.  (Quality will continue to be sacrificed for quantity.)

There is substantial survivor-ship bias occurring at the senior leadership level.  This causes the perceived long-term consequences of this to be unrealistically discounted.

[Majestik Møøse]

I get approached by about 3-5 people a year asking for advice on becoming an Air Force pilot.  I tell all of them that I can't in good faith recommend they go the active duty route.  If they can't go guard/reserve, it's not worth going at all.

I've been personally thanked by a few of them once they get to UPT and realize the bullet they dodged. 

Dude, stop giving people bad gouge. Just because you hate flying AF jets doesn't mean we all do. My current assignment feels like the best job in the world. I've got a great family and a nice house in the mountains and the flying is amazing. Would I rather be a 767 bus driver for 50% more pay? No, not at this point in my life. I love this job.

I'm not in AMC anymore so maybe that's it. But seriously, in the grand scheme of things, the Air Force can be pretty awesome. The real world sucks.

[StoleIt]

Dude, stop giving people bad gouge. Just because you hate flying AF jets doesn't mean we all do. My current assignment feels like the best job in the world. I've got a great family and a nice house in the mountains and the flying is amazing. Would I rather be a 767 bus driver for 50% more pay? No, not at this point in my life. I love this job.

I'm not in AMC anymore so maybe that's it. But seriously, in the grand scheme of things, the Air Force can be pretty awesome. The real world sucks.

People ask him for his opinion and he gives it, can't fault him for that.

I am talking to a freshman cadet right now that is asking me questions about AD. I honestly don't know how I will answer the inevitable, "should I join/be a pilot?" A year ago at my previous assignment, I would have said yes. Currently, I am not as confident. I can't imagine the morale improving any time soon either...

[Prozac]

Dude, stop giving people bad gouge. Just because you hate flying AF jets doesn't mean we all do. My current assignment feels like the best job in the world. I've got a great family and a nice house in the mountains and the flying is amazing. Would I rather be a 767 bus driver for 50% more pay? No, not at this point in my life. I love this job.

I'm not in AMC anymore so maybe that's it. But seriously, in the grand scheme of things, the Air Force can be pretty awesome. The real world sucks.

Disagree. Having seen both sides of the fence, I think advising someone to go to the Guard/Reserve route over AD is fantastic advice. Are there some good times to be had on Active Duty? Of course. Hell, I had a couple of outstanding assignments. The problem is, you have far to little control over that process, and you just might spend the better part of a seemingly great assignment deployed to some shithole. It was bad enough with a ten year commitment. I can't imagine advising someone to sign on the dotted line for thirteen or more. 

[Day Man]

The real world sucks.

It can...so can the Air Force. 

The real world also doesn't check your cell phones, or send you across the globe to make ppt slides, or wonder where you're going over the weekend.

[Jaded]

Dude, stop giving people bad gouge. Just because you hate flying AF jets doesn't mean we all do. My current assignment feels like the best job in the world. I've got a great family and a nice house in the mountains and the flying is amazing. Would I rather be a 767 bus driver for 50% more pay? No, not at this point in my life. I love this job.

I'm not in AMC anymore so maybe that's it. But seriously, in the grand scheme of things, the Air Force can be pretty awesome. The real world sucks.

What are you flying and where are you stationed, if you don't mind me asking? 

[guineapigfury]

13 year ADSC?  Normal first assignment with a decade long MQ-9 follow on ... no thanks.

Edited October 25, 2015 by guineapigfury

[Fuzz]

Dude, stop giving people bad gouge. Just because you hate flying AF jets doesn't mean we all do. My current assignment feels like the best job in the world. I've got a great family and a nice house in the mountains and the flying is amazing. Would I rather be a 767 bus driver for 50% more pay? No, not at this point in my life. I love this job.

I'm not in AMC anymore so maybe that's it. But seriously, in the grand scheme of things, the Air Force can be pretty awesome. The real world sucks.

The Air Force, as in the flying I get to do and the people I work with on a daily basis are awesome; I wouldn't trade where I am right now for anything. Most people I know don't hate getting up everyday and putting on the uniform to go to work, in fact most of them also enjoy. However, most of those same people and anyone with a two eyes and half a brain can see the institution that is the U.S. Air Force is in a severe crisis. This is crisis is a leadership, readiness, training and most importantly ethical crisis. The people at the top are out of touch and screaming "remain calm, everything is fine" as people run for the door, leaders abuse their power and our equipment falls apart due to a broken acquisitions process. It reminds me of when I spatial-D'd in the T-6 while flying IMC, my IP in the back is telling to cage myself on the instruments, while I'm telling him "no, I'm good". In reality I was 10 degrees nose low and in a 20 degree left turn. The leadership stands in front of the world and says there's nothing to see, while the people they lead scream for help. They fail to see that the institution is being held together at the seams by extraordinary airman the do amazing things every damn day to keep jets in the air.

I don't hate the Air Force, I love the Air Force, it runs in my blood all the way back to the Army Air Corps. Yet I see the attrition of experience and knowledge heading to the civilian world everyday, leaving greener and inexperienced aircrew to fill their spots. I see leaders who can manage a wing but have no idea how their jets or crews execute their mission. People that care more about SAPR and quarterly awards than whether their crews can effectively execute what we've promised to COCOMs.

That being said the Air Force is still the best in the world and when the order comes we get shit done because those of us on the frontlines make it happen. However, the Air Force hasn't been challenged in a very long time, the Army went through a crisis during the early years of the GWOT and managed to make some changes, but we've been chugging along since Korea having yet to meet a foe that gave us a run for out money. I'm not sure the institution as it stands today could actually withstand that challenge with out some very painful and costly consequences.

[Jaded]

Remember too that these hypothetical 15 year adsc guys would also only be eligible for the new reduced benefit pension.

I can only imagine the shit that AFPC would pull if it knew it had you for 5 more assignments.  

[pcola]

However, most of those same people and anyone with a two eyes and half a brain can see the institution that is the U.S. Air Force is in a severe crisis. It reminds me of when I spatial-D'd in the T-6 while flying IMC, my IP in the back is telling to cage myself on the instruments, while I'm telling him "no, I'm good". In reality I was 10 degrees nose low and in a 20 degree left turn. The leadership stands in front of the world and says there's nothing to see, while the people they lead scream for help.

I like this analogy. AF leadership is suffering from unrecognized spatial d and they refuse to trust the instruments (low retention and negative feedback on climate surveys.)

[BuddhaSixFour]

Obviously there's no universal Active Duty experience or AD service member. Some people will love it. Some will hate it. Got it. 

My heartburn with an ADSC longer than the current one is that you're asking a 22-year old to go all-in on the bulk of their professional life without any reasonable understanding of what that entails or what the opportunity costs     really are. Some will get lucky and love it. Good for them. But the others will be trapped for no reason other than its hard to predict who you'll be or what your life circumstances will be a decade down the road. 

How is the Air Force supposed to build a leader/follower relationship built on trust when the AF's first move is to take adavantage of youthful naïveté and dream chasing for its own cynical ends? 

I understand the investment it takes to build a pilot, and that you need a guaranteed return if you're going to put in that effort and resources, but there's an upper limit to what it's morally reasonable to ask someone to agree to with no way out and no recourse.  At some point it becomes predatory. I really consider the 10-year ADSC as at the upper limit. 

Hopefully it's just talk and we can get back to figuring out how to encourage quality people to stay rather than trapping them when they just don't know any better. 

[ClearedHot]

History repeats itself.

[Ram]

If only we had a separate HQ-based organization charged with the challenging task of managing our manpower...