Saddle up for Syria? Or Op Deny Christmas '13

[B*D*A]

Stratfor publishes some very informative analyses. A Little tidbit of information...the AF actually provides all of us with a free Stratfor subscription. Log in to the portal and click on the "Library" tab. About 2/3 of the way down, on the right side, is a link to Stratfor. Free full access to their site.

Back to the topic at hand...

Most helpful post of all time, seriously.

[chim richalds]

attack an Arab country who supposedly has WMDs? Haven't we seen this movie before? What a ######ing disaster this Pres is.

[GearDownNoGreen]

Stratfor publishes some very informative analyses. A Little tidbit of information...the AF actually provides all of us with a free Stratfor subscription. Log in to the portal and click on the "Library" tab. About 2/3 of the way down, on the right side, is a link to Stratfor. Free full access to their site.

Back to the topic at hand...

Actual Advice Mallard...is that you? Big thank you for this.

[uhhello]

Funny thing. Its acutally blocked here for Education/Reference

[GearDownNoGreen]

New Zeland Herald has a quick run down of Syria's possible reprisal options. Not much in the way of sources for the info quoted in the article, but still an interesting read.

[waveshaper]

New Zeland Herald has a quick run down of Syria's possible reprisal options. Not much in the way of sources for the info quoted in the article, but still an interesting read.

Interesting article. I will only speculate on Turkey since it was my home away from home for some time. There are over 500,000 (could be more now due to refugees) Alawite Twelvers in Turkey and they could be potential trouble. The vast majority of Alawites live in "ADANA" or on its door steps (Adana and Hatay province). There are also about 15 million Alevi Twelvers in Turkey but they are well dispersed and not closely affiliated with Syria or Assad.

[StoleIt]

[Scooter14]

^this.

[waveshaper]

A short history of the region we now call Syria, as I understand it.

1. The Majority Sunni Muslims have dominated/ruled the region containing Syria, almost exclusively, since the founding of Islam; apx 1400 years.

2. In 1945 there were only 45 documented Alawite Shia living in Damascus.

3. The French and then British set the stage for the minority Alawite Shia to rise to power post WW1.

4. Assad's daddy took power in 1970. So out of 1400 plus years the minority Alawite Shia have been in power for only 43 years.

5. If history is any indicator of future events then the minority Alawites will be forced out of power shortly. The Sunnis will dominate once again and the Alawite Shia will join the other Syrian minorities (Druze, Christians, and Kurds) in Syrian obscurity once again.

6. Conclusion; The Rebel Sunnis are going to win hands down, Assad and his Shia boys are toast, even without our help.

[egochecks]

Stratfor publishes some very informative analyses. A Little tidbit of information...the AF actually provides all of us with a free Stratfor subscription. Log in to the portal and click on the "Library" tab. About 2/3 of the way down, on the right side, is a link to Stratfor. Free full access to their site.

Back to the topic at hand...

Thanks, man. I've been debating getting a subscription for months now and was just wondering if they did anything for the military. This is even better than I had hoped. I appreciate the info.

As far as this article on Syria goes, I keep thinking about the report they did awhile back on the effectiveness of NK's strategy. Essentially, NK knows how to turn up just the right amount of plausible crazy to have an effect larger than they can actually back or sustain. Now with Syria Friedman made the statement that Obama needs to back his bluff so that he doesn't appear weak to Iran and NK. Us taking action in Syria because we're afraid of what Iran and NK thinks feels like the tail wagging the dog and just sets a precedence of one of them being able to push our buttons and paint us into a corner. The thought of letting either one of those countries even remotely dictate (obviously they influence) our decisions is just backwards to me. I think Assad needs to be held accountable but I think we need to slow roll this and get everyone (at least most or many here at home) on board. I'm sure there are fifty members here who can show me the errors of my over simplistic assessment so I'll learn.

But seriously, thanks for the info.

-Ego

[waveshaper]

I don't know what the problem is with the British not getting on board. The U.S intelligence officials are saying that they have the goods on Assad and its a "SLAM DUNK" that his forces used chemical weapons.

[tac airlifter]

The U.S intelligence officials are saying that they have the goods on Assad and its a "SLAM DUNK" that his forces used chemical weapons.

Never heard that one before....

[waveshaper]

Never heard that one before....

Latest; White House Team Briefs Congress: 'No doubt' on Syria chemical weapons'. The administration's 90-minute briefing on Syria for senior members of Congress was conducted by Secretary of State John Kerry, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, National Security Adviser Susan Rice and other high-ranking US officials. I am glad to see this team that briefed congress has folks on it that Americans trust. To all Americans Susan Rice, in particular, stands out as one of the most trusted administration officials. Also, it would be nice to know who's payroll is former CIA Director George "SLAM DUNK" Tenet on this time around?

[Runr6730]

https://www.eutimes.net/2013/08/putin-orders-massive-strike-against-saudi-arabia-if-west-attacks-syria/

Not sure if this is real or not, but certainly a new twist to the story...

[Scooter14]

https://www.eutimes.net/2013/08/putin-orders-massive-strike-against-saudi-arabia-if-west-attacks-syria/

Not sure if this is real or not, but certainly a new twist to the story...

I saw that article as well posted on Facebook, but it's not covered anywhere else. You'd think that it would be all over the place if it was true.

[ThreeHoler]

https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=b73_1377873910

"Oops."

Saudi twist reported by the Telegraph: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/10266957/Saudis-offer-Russia-secret-oil-deal-if-it-drops-Syria.html

[waveshaper]

I wondered where all the pictures of the dead animals were and found this. Video of chemical weapon effects (looks like nerve agent) on animals/pets in Syria. Also, contains footage of spent chemical ordnance utilized. This video not suitable for children or PETA. https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=124_1377308617

[Swanee]

I wondered where all the pictures of the dead animals were and found this. Video of chemical weapon effects (looks like nerve agent) on animals/pets in Syria. Also, contains footage of spent chemical ordnance utilized. This video not suitable for children or PETA. https://www.liveleak....=124_1377308617

People who use this stuff indeed deserve to die. But do we really have to be the ones to kill them?

[Hacker]

Is it just me, or does the remnants of the exploded ordinance laying on the ground at the end of that video look much like the what's being used in the video below?

Looks like it to me. Any intel-minded folks able to VID what the hell it is?

[waveshaper]

Looks like it to me. Any intel-minded folks able to VID what the hell it is?

Its a version of what used to be called a Improvised Lob Bomb. The IRA used a similar system in Northern Ireland. The next generation of the Lob Bomb is called the Improvised Rocket Assisted Munitions (IRAM). The IRAM was used against us in Iraq but its roots can be traced back to between the two Iraq wars. The Shiites used the IRAMs against Saddam's forces. The version in your video is called the Syrian Hell Cannon and its being used current by both the Syrian rebels and Syrian government militias (primarily), Hezbollah. The good folks in Gaza have versions of all this crap.

[waveshaper]

Its a version of what used to be called a Improvised Lob Bomb. The IRA used a similar system in Northern Ireland. The next generation of the Lob Bomb is called the Improvised Rocket Assisted Munitions (IRAM). The IRAM was used against us in Iraq but its roots can be traced back to between the two Iraq wars. The Shiites used the IRAMs against Saddam's forces. The version in your video is called the Syrian Hell Cannon and its being used current by both the Syrian rebels and Syrian government militias (primarily), Hezbollah. The good folks in Gaza have versions of all this crap.

I made a mistake; Hell Cannon is used by Sunni rebels; HE warhead-yes / Chemical warhead-unknown. IRAM like the one in video with dead critters is used by government Shia militia (Hezbollah); HE warhead-yes / Chemical warhead-yes. All info is open source (Google).

[waveshaper]

Some detailed videos and info on this subject. See video "video shows Assad's Forces loading, firing, munitions linked to chemical attacks". You can draw your own conclusion but I think I see a couple future targets. https://brown-moses.blogspot.com/

[Fuzz]

https://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/31/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Saddle up boys we're going to war tomorrow! Well, maybe the next day or next month, or whenever. Attempting to save face has never been so comical.

[DFRESH]

Can we hold off for a few more months? I'm not even qualified to sit in the mission planning cell yet!

[HeloDude]

https://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/31/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Saddle up boys we're going to war tomorrow! Well, maybe the next day or next month, or whenever. Attempting to save face has never been so comical.

It's definitely amateur hour over at the WH. My hope is that they treat it like a death penalty...and just put it off for several years, maybe even forever.