Saddle up for Syria? Or Op Deny Christmas '13

[waveshaper]

Don't worry we will eventually get around to Assad (or will we) but first we have to destroy ISIS.

After destroying ISIS, we will then have to destroy the Al Qaeda affiliated Syrian rebel groups in the following order;

First on the chopping block after ISIS will be Al Nusra, followed by Ahrar Al-Sham, followed by The Islamic Front, etc,

etc. Eventually we will have to destroy whatever kind of Islamic monster the US supported/funded/trained/armed FSA

morphs into. This type CF is our destiny so relax (said the night man/Assad) an enjoy the perpetual target rich

environment.

US airstrikes target Ahrar Al Sham/The Islamic Front.

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2014/11/06/activists-us-strike-hits-syrian-rebel-compound.html?comp=700001075741&rank=3

Well, it seems we're are moving faster than expected. The only problem is we haven't accomplished much in the way of

defeating/significantly degrading this constantly expanding/growing/morphing enemy.

The chopping block/hit list as of 6 Nov 14;

ISIS; Check.

Al Nusra: Check.

Ahrar Al Sham; Check.

The Islamic Front (via Ahrar Al Sham): Check

Who's next? My guess is some of the former FSA brigades/leadership (like the ones that changed teams this past weekend)

and are now affiliated with ISIS.

[deaddebate]

https://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/07/us-mideast-crisis-usa-iraq-idUSKBN0IR22I20141107 - Obama authorizes 1,500 additional U.S. troops for deployment to Iraq

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/obama-authorizes-1500-troops-iraq-26765796 - Obama Authorizes 1,500 More Troops for Iraq

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/obama-doubling-us-troop-levels-in-iraq-1.312905 - Obama doubling US troop levels in Iraq

[pawnman]

https://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/07/us-mideast-crisis-usa-iraq-idUSKBN0IR22I20141107 - Obama authorizes 1,500 additional U.S. troops for deployment to Iraq

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/obama-authorizes-1500-troops-iraq-26765796 - Obama Authorizes 1,500 More Troops for Iraq

https://www.stripes.com/news/us/obama-doubling-us-troop-levels-in-iraq-1.312905 - Obama doubling US troop levels in Iraq

Operation Enduring Clusterfuck is in full swing.

[Royal]

Good article from Bill Lind about America's Ghost of Christmas Past

If a definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again while expecting a different result, Washington is now a high-budget, low-talent production of “Marat/Sade.” After defeats by Fourth Generation, non-state opponents in Lebanon, Somalia, Iraq, and Afghanistan, we have begun another war with another Fourth Generation entity, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS. We are relying on foreign armies we will train, which have collapsed from Vietnam onward. Those armies are to be supported by our supposed ace-in-the-hole—it appears to be a deep hole—air power, which has also failed against irregular forces from Vietnam onward.

Worse, we are moving toward doing what ISIS most wants us to do: namely, sending in ground forces against it. ISIS is already benefiting from our air attacks. In exchange for a few tanks, artillery pieces, and empty buildings—America’s air targeting is largely predictable—ISIS’s recruiting and fundraising have prospered. It can now wrap itself in the mantle of David confronting Goliath, a powerful advantage at the moral level of war. A ground assault by American troops will kick those benefits up several notches. More, it will solve the number one problem faced by ISIS, al-Qaeda, and all the rest of the Islamic puritan forces: how to get at the Americans. When we come to them, that problem disappears.

The proximate cause of our new war is the murder of two Americans. You read that right: two. It often happens that two people are murdered in a single night on Cleveland’s east side. Should Shaker Square be on the lookout for Predator drones? The only war with a lesser cause was the War of Jenkins’ Ear between England and Spain in the 18th century.

When President Obama, who had long manfully resisted the establishment’s demands for another war—if we forget about Libya—finally yielded, he did so in the worst possible way. His announced “strategy” combined maximalist objectives, defeating and destroying ISIS, with means so inadequate that within hours his plan was the butt of jokes within the military. Regrettably, the maximalist objectives create what the permanent war party most wants, grounds to argue that America’s “credibility” is now at stake. So it was also in 17th-century Spain, our closest historical parallel, where an overcommitted country could not prudently pull back because the reputación of the monarchy was at stake. The inevitable result was complete collapse, military, financial, and political.

Beyond the fact that the American military does not know how to fight and win Fourth Generation wars, the war against ISIS is doomed because the tide of history is against us—the tide of the decline of the state. In most parts of the world, the state is fading because it is no longer able to perform the function for which it arose, maintaining the safety of persons and property. That is true here as well, as the explosive growth of private security in recent decades testifies.

The decline of the state is happening even faster in the Middle East because many of its states were artificial creations to begin with. That is true of Libya, Syria, and Iraq, among others. Such states can function, as Saddam’s Iraq did. But they are brittle. Once shattered, no one can put them back together again. And America specializes in shattering states, gleefully, in the name of “liberal democracy.” The de facto Arabic translation of that phrase, re-translated into English, is “anarchy.”

So what should America do in the face of ISIS? The answer: isolate ourselves from the spreading stateless disorder and Fourth Generation war not only in the Middle East but wherever it appears. The real danger to us is not Fourth Generation war there, but its spread here. We need to act forcefully to prevent its importation by immigrants and refugees. We should be equally forceful in combating homegrown disorder, which is best done by again enabling the state to guarantee the safety of persons and property. While we carry on a war with ISIS, the American state cannot maintain order a thousand yards from the U.S. Capitol after nightfall. Once no one in this country needs to employ private security, then perhaps we can think of charging windmills in Castile.

When outrages against American citizens abroad require the U.S. government to “do something” for political reasons, history tells us what to do: launch a punitive raid. Punitive raids have no maximalist objectives. They do not seek to “defeat and destroy” an opponent. They seek only to punish, an attainable goal, and are “once and done,” at least until the next outrage. They were common tools in the kit of 18th- and 19th-century European states, often in the form of naval bombardments.

A good example is the Royal Navy’s bombardment of Algiers in 1816. David S.T. Blackmore’s Warfare on the Mediterranean in the Age of Sail tells the story well. The outrage was the massacre by Algerian and Turkish troops on May 23rd of that year of the hundreds of Christian sailors—not British subjects—who were ashore at Bona in North Africa to hear Mass on Ascension Day. The British Admiral Lord Exmouth was ordered to “give the Algerians a sound lesson.” Algiers’ defenses were so powerful as to be considered unassailable. But Pellew took only a small fleet of five ships of the line, two of which were three-deckers, the most powerful type. Joined by a Dutch squadron, he gave Algiers such a pounding that the Algerian navy was destroyed, the land defenses shattered, and the city left in flames. The Algerians suffered some 7,000 killed; British and Dutch casualties were fewer than 300.

Blackmore adds, “Five years later, Admiral Sir Harry Neal directed another offshore cannonade of reconstructed Algiers, but none of these punitive expeditions completely eradicated the corsair scourge.” London never expected they would.

A punitive raid on ISIS would be easy. Send every B-52 and B-1 that can fly, all loaded to the gills, over ISIS’s capital, the small city of Raqqa in Syria, and flatten the place. That would not “defeat and destroy” ISIS. But it would make the American public happy, and it would give ISIS a sufficient headache that it might leave Americans alone for a while. Best of all, America would not be “committed” to anything. History often offers an answer, if only someone bothers to ask it a question.

William S. Lind is author of the Maneuver Warfare Handbook and director of the American Conservative Center for Public Transportation.

[Royal]

Just like Jim Burton said of the A-10: [The Air Force] thinks it's terrible in peacetime but terrific in wartime.

A-10s deployed to combat the IS.

[uhhello]

Just like Jim Burton said of the A-10: [The Air Force] thinks it's terrible in peacetime but terrific in wartime.

A-10s deployed to combat the IS.

They can't even get the reason behind their presence right. A bit late to the show if they are using their stated reason.

[Majestik Møøse]

The Air Force tends to organize itself to fight the most difficult war scenarios it can imagine. In the 60s it was poised to fight global nuclear war. In the 80s it was positioned to halt the Soviet advance across the Fulda Gap. Today, we're most concerned with an Air-Sea battle against China. The problem is, though all those scenarios are extremely difficult, none of them are very likely. The most likely wars, like Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq 2.0 & 2.5, are the ones that tend to expose our shortcomings.

Maybe the A-10 wouldn't be very survivable against China or Russia. But it sure would be useful against every other enemy we're facing now and in the future.

[Clark Griswold]

Turkey has decided which side it's on...

Isis launches attack on Kobani from inside Turkey for first time

Not surprising with Erdogan pretty much the sultan...

NATO (and the EU) need to really think if we need them on the team

[Guest LumberjackAxe]

US flies roughly 85 percent of airstrikes against Islamic State

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/2014/11/26/us-outpaces-allies-in-airstrike-in-iraq-syria/

As much of a CF Operation Extended Warranty is turning into, it's pretty interesting to have so many languages/accents on the radio: United States, Canada, UK, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Australia, and whatever other middle eastern countries are involved, and other countries who wish to remain anonymous.

[Royal]

The Air Force tends to organize itself to fight the most difficult war scenarios it can imagine.

It's no coincidence that now days the most difficult war scenario also comes with the highest price tag.

[waveshaper]

Iranian F4 conducting airstrikes on ISIS?

https://www.janes.com/article/46514/iranian-phantom-jet-strikes-the-islamic-state-in-iraq

Edited December 2, 2014 by waveshaper

[HU&W]

FBI Cautions Military Members to Be on Alert

The FBI is advising current and former members of the military to review their social media accounts to avoid posts that might attract attention from the group calling itself the Islamic State and its supporters.

A new bulletin from the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security notes that the Islamic State group already has publicly encouraged attacks against law enforcement and military service members.

The FBI says it has information suggesting the Islamic State is looking for "like-minded" individuals in the United States who would be willing to carry out attacks.

The bulletin, which was reviewed by The Associated Press, cites the October attack by a gunman who killed a soldier at Canada's national war memorial and then stormed Parliament. The bulletin says such attacks might embolden violent extremists.

[uhhello]

FBI Cautions Military Members to Be on Alert

The facebook hysteria has started again already.

[pawnman]

FBI Cautions Military Members to Be on Alert

Meh. How is this different from the last decade?

[MD]

Iranian F4 conducting airstrikes on ISIS?

https://www.janes.com/article/46514/iranian-phantom-jet-strikes-the-islamic-state-in-iraq

No surprise at all. Iran can't stand ISIS, and too Syria is Iran's only real ally on that side of the Gulf. Iranian F-4s, AH-1s, and other aircraft of the Air Force and Army Aviation have been taking part in this anti-ISIS campaign from the beginning. If ISIS.....and to a certain extent, Syrian "rebels"..... have accomplished one major thing, it's that they've created some very odd bedfellows. Iran, USA, and Israel, all with the same goals here, with only the USA being the one of them all still claiming to be against Assad (and stupidly so, in my opinion).

[busdriver]

Ironically if this situation gets those strange bedfellows back on talking terms; ISIS may actually do itself a lot of long term harm by just existing. Too funny.

[pawnman]

No surprise at all. Iran can't stand ISIS, and too Syria is Iran's only real ally on that side of the Gulf. Iranian F-4s, AH-1s, and other aircraft of the Air Force and Army Aviation have been taking part in this anti-ISIS campaign from the beginning. If ISIS.....and to a certain extent, Syrian "rebels"..... have accomplished one major thing, it's that they've created some very odd bedfellows. Iran, USA, and Israel, all with the same goals here, with only the USA being the one of them all still claiming to be against Assad (and stupidly so, in my opinion).

We should probably stop talking about regime change as long as our primary SEAD tactic is State Department diplomats.

[Flaco]

Here's to hoping he can escape or gets rescued....

[TheGuardGuy]

https://m.ndtv.com/article/world/iran-warns-of-consequences-for-israeli-attack-654561

Israeli air strike in Syrian-controlled Golan Heights schwacks an Iranian General.

Edited January 28, 2015 by TheGuardGuy

[tac airlifter]

Open source is reporting the Jordanian pilot might be swapped for an IS prisoner.

[waveshaper]

Open source is reporting the Jordanian pilot might be swapped for an IS prisoner.

It seems there might be some bundling, American Pickers style, in the works; The bundle = swapping the remaining ISIS

held Japanese man and Jordanian F-16 Pilot for the Jordanian held female suicide bomber?

[SurelySerious]

What ISIS Really Wants

This article seems to analyze the underlying fanaticism fairly well (as far as taking things back to the 7th century), but these are his analysis of COAs, if you will.

One way to un-cast the Islamic State’s spell over its adherents would be to overpower it militarily and occupy the parts of Syria and Iraq now under caliphate rule. Al‑Qaeda is ineradicable because it can survive, cockroach-like, by going underground. The Islamic State cannot. If it loses its grip on its territory in Syria and Iraq, it will cease to be a caliphate. Caliphates cannot exist as underground movements, because territorial authority is a requirement: take away its command of territory, and all those oaths of allegiance are no longer binding.

Given everything we know about the Islamic State, continuing to slowly bleed it, through air strikes and proxy warfare, appears the best of bad military options. Neither the Kurds nor the Shia will ever subdue and control the whole Sunni heartland of Syria and Iraq

Properly contained, the Islamic State is likely to be its own undoing. No country is its ally, and its ideology ensures that this will remain the case. The land it controls, while expansive, is mostly uninhabited and poor. As it stagnates or slowly shrinks, its claim that it is the engine of God’s will and the agent of apocalypse will weaken, and fewer believers will arrive. And as more reports of misery within it leak out, radical Islamist movements elsewhere will be discredited: No one has tried harder to implement strict Sharia by violence. This is what it looks like.

[Clark Griswold]

ISIS rot

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-islamic-state-is-fraying-from-within/2015/03/08/0003a2e0-c276-11e4-a188-8e4971d37a8d_story.html?hpid=z1

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[SurelySerious]

ISIS rot

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/the-islamic-state-is-fraying-from-within/2015/03/08/0003a2e0-c276-11e4-a188-8e4971d37a8d_story.html?hpid=z1

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is pretty much what The Atlantic article said was most likely: it will fall apart from within. Hopefully it continues.

[11F]

Stoked to hear this, but as we are well aware, this "rot" often leads to a reorganization and resurgence.

Credit where credit is due though -- USAF Airpower!