Saddle up for Syria? Or Op Deny Christmas '13

[Clark Griswold]

Sorry, I suck at this new forum interface.

No BFD buddy

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[Clark Griswold]

Russia's on the build up,

https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/russia-is-pouring-cargo-into-syria-including-heavy-arm-1730648838

 

[Clark Griswold]

Su-30SM confirmed on the deck in Syria (western city of Latakia).  Just 4 jets, wonder why the Su-25 was not sent.

https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/perilous-puzzle-su-30sm-fighter-jets-appear-at-russias-1731934051

 

[Fuzz]

We send a message to ISIS we deploy the A-10; we send a message to Iran we deploy the F-22. They aren't sending a message to ISIS they are sending a message to the west by deploying one of their most advance multi-role fighters.

[Clark Griswold]

We send a message to ISIS we deploy the A-10; we send a message to Iran we deploy the F-22. They aren't sending a message to ISIS they are sending a message to the west by deploying one of their most advance multi-role fighters.

Good assessment.  Coupled with the S-300 missiles Asad says arrived in Syria about 2 years ago, his remaining area is fairly secure from conventional attack.

 

[Fuzz]

I would argue his area has always been secure from conventional attack from the West. If we didn't attack when Assad used chemical weapons on his people AKA the "red line", we aren't going to attack now. The civil war status quo isn't going to spur the West to attack, its going to take another outrageous act to rile to citizens into demanding action. Which given our lack luster response to the barbaric acts of ISIS isn't going to be much, especially overthrowing another government (and an ally of Russia).

[StoleIt]

Su-30SM confirmed on the deck in Syria (western city of Latakia).  Just 4 jets, wonder why the Su-25 was not sent.

https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/perilous-puzzle-su-30sm-fighter-jets-appear-at-russias-1731934051

 

Or the Su-34...seems like the platypus or the frogger would have been a better fit, but eh...Russian logic.

[Clark Griswold]

I would argue his area has always been secure from conventional attack from the West. If we didn't attack when Assad used chemical weapons on his people AKA the "red line", we aren't going to attack now. The civil war status quo isn't going to spur the West to attack, its going to take another outrageous act to rile to citizens into demanding action. Which given our lack luster response to the barbaric acts of ISIS isn't going to be much, especially overthrowing another government (and an ally of Russia).

True - when we didn't do shit after declaring a threshold that you better not cross (fist shaking in the air) and then nada, we looked like amateurs.  I am not sold at all on ousting Asad as I think Syria would just get worse (ala Libya) but there should have been something, attack a few airfields with cruise missiles, drop a MOAB via B-2 on something, just a huge explosion somewhere on Asad's territory to be played a million times on news channels to show tit for tat (giggity)

Or the Su-34...seems like the platypus or the frogger would have been a better fit, but eh...Russian logic.

Could be as Fuzz says this is force protection / deterrence for Asad's area and an eventual Russian task force.  Ka-52 attack helicopters would be useful too but I'm interested to see if they'll start their own UAV ops there.  They've gotten a good bit of experience from their hybrid war in Ukraine and Iran has supplied Al Asad's forces with smaller UAVs and their Shaded 129 UAV capable of carrying their Sadid-1 missile, you put all that technology force multiplier systems with 30-50k of fighters that Iran could get from Hezbollah and the 100+ billion dollars that they are going to get their hands on from the Nuclear Deal with the P5+1 group and they could turn the tide against ISIS but then you have Asad and Iran back in charge, well shit....

 

[M2]

We should send the F-35!  Oh, wait....nevermind!

[waveshaper]

I'm not surprised that Russia is "finally" establishing a Joint Russian/Syrian Government Air Base. Russia/Syria have been allies forever and back in the 1970's, 80's and 90's the Russian's had thousands of advisors, trainers, technicians, and contractors in Syria to service their Foreign Military Sales (FMS) contracts (similar to how the USAF services its "Peace XXXX" FMS contracts).

The Russians/Syrians are just following the example of "Jointness/Cooperation" we set in Iraq. I may be wrong but I think we've had a similar and in many ways "more disturbing" arrangement in Iraq, at a couple Air Bases, for over a year.  Heck, it appears to be easier to "officially/unofficially" work with the Iranian backed Governments of Iraq/Syria, to help facilitate our anti-ISIS air campaign, then it has been working "officially" with our reliable/trusted NATO buddy Turkey.

Examples (not sure if this stuff is bogus)?

1. Taqaddum Air Base; Jointly occupied by US Forces, Iraqi Government Forces, and Iranian backed Shia militias. These Shia militias comprise largely Shia volunteers and they're headed by the leader of the Iraqi Hezbollah and closely associated with Qassem Suleimani, the Iranian Quds Force commander.
2. Baghdad International Airport; Jointly occupied by US Forces, Iraqi Government Forces, Iranian backed militias (see item 1), and Russian trainers/advisors/technicians/pilots/etc (to support those recently delivered Russian SU-25s, Mi-35M/Mi-28NE attack helicopters, Pantsir air defense missile-gun systems, etc).

Russian military equipment arriving at the Syrian port of Tartus is not surprising and receiving lots of press coverage. What's not receiving much press coverage is the 4.2 billion dollar Russian FMS contract that was awarded to help support Iraqi government military forces. I would suggest folks take a look at what's being offloaded from all those Russian ships at the Iraqi Port of Umm Qasr and offloaded from all those Russian Transport aircraft arriving in Iraq.

 

Edited September 21, 2015 by waveshaper

[Clark Griswold]

Frogfoot and Fencer in theater.

https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/su-25-frogfoots-and-su-24-fencers-arrive-at-russias-bur-1732201932

 

[Smokin]

He secured himself from conventional attack two years ago with encouraging the formation of ISIS.  He intentionally helped build up the tide of ISIS because that made him the lesser of two evils to the west.  The only way the west truly intervenes to kick out Assad is if the FSA once again becomes a credible threat.  The Russian intervention will make sure that won't happen, so Assad will likely push back ISIS a little to regain some revenue sources and then let them stay in a perpetual stalemate.  ISIS is extremely useful to Assad and he won't want to see them actually defeated.

[Clark Griswold]

He secured himself from conventional attack two years ago with encouraging the formation of ISIS.  He intentionally helped build up the tide of ISIS because that made him the lesser of two evils to the west.  The only way the west truly intervenes to kick out Assad is if the FSA once again becomes a credible threat.  The Russian intervention will make sure that won't happen, so Assad will likely push back ISIS a little to regain some revenue sources and then let them stay in a perpetual stalemate.  ISIS is extremely useful to Assad and he won't want to see them actually defeated.

Maybe but I think he's not interested in a stalemate or even the appearance of one with ISIS, Asad with Putin & Iran's assistance would expel / slaughter ISIS in a milli-second (given the choices Asad is better than ISIS with expanding territorial and franchise operations).  I think the CDE concerns of an Asad-Putin-Iran coalition are somewhere between none and less than nothing so it maybe in the next few months the tide will turn on ISIS.  They have a semi to supportive population base in the Sunni majority areas of Eastern Syria & Western Iraq, when war is waged with WWII style regard to military forces in populated areas, I am not sure that base will continue to support the 30-40k fighters there.

Without a population to blend into, less territory to evade in and fighting a foe with unrestricted ROE, ISIS could collapse.  No moral judgement nor cheerleading for scorched earth tactics but like the populations of WWII Germany and Japan, they may have to be exposed to direct action to dissuade any support for ISIS, Al-Nusra, etc...

 

Related to the Syrian Civil War but an interesting idea on the Syrian Refugees, Debt for Dignity.  

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/lorelei-kelly/help-the-refugees-with-de_b_8086550.html

Paying highly indebted countries (like Greece, Italy, Spain) to allow in refugees if not permanently at least medium term until ISIS can be given a PGM express ticket to paradise.

 

Edited September 23, 2015 by Clark Griswold

[StoleIt]

After Russians and Iranians, the Chinese also have stepped in to help the Syrian regime under President Assad. China reportedly has dispatched troops to Syria.

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/chinese-troops-join-russian-marines-syria-soon-says-report-648246

Russia, Iran, Iraq & Syria setting up ‘joint information center’ to coordinate anti-ISIS operations

https://www.rt.com/news/316592-russia-syria-islamic-state/

 

So Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and China are all working together. Meanwhile...the US trained/backed "moderate" rebels immediately defected to ISIS along with their military equipment.

[Clark Griswold]

After Russians and Iranians, the Chinese also have stepped in to help the Syrian regime under President Assad. China reportedly has dispatched troops to Syria.

https://www.ibtimes.co.in/chinese-troops-join-russian-marines-syria-soon-says-report-648246

Russia, Iran, Iraq & Syria setting up ‘joint information center’ to coordinate anti-ISIS operations

https://www.rt.com/news/316592-russia-syria-islamic-state/

 

So Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and China are all working together. Meanwhile...the US trained/backed "moderate" rebels immediately defected to ISIS along with their military equipment.

Did the moderates get SAPR? If they didn't how could anyone think they could be a real military force?

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Follow on - why even bother with air strikes any more? If the other powers are putting their boots on the ground and we are only willing to strike fans under restrictive ROE that has not appreciably caused the desired effects - declare the mission objectives achieved and roll it up - this is McNamara strategy all over again

[SurelySerious]

Did the moderates get SAPR? If they didn't how could anyone think they could be a real military force?

Well they made it through the ORM Fundamentals CBT that's impossible to skip through without going on a suicide bombing trip, and that's probably about as good as you're going to get.

[Fuzz]

Meanwhile...the US trained/backed "moderate" rebels immediately defected to ISIS along with their military equipment.

We sent 75 newly trained fighters into Syria on their own, what the hell did people think was going to happen? These guys were expected to take the fight to 30,000-70,000 ISIS fighters, thousands of fighters belonging to dozens of smaller groups and the Syrian Army transiting in a couple pickup trucks.  The people that made that call should resign their commissions in shame.

[MD]

Follow on - why even bother with air strikes any more? If the other powers are putting their boots on the ground and we are only willing to strike fans under restrictive ROE that has not appreciably caused the desired effects - declare the mission objectives achieved and roll it up - this is McNamara strategy all over again

Agreed fully. Our own ROE is one of the biggest things causing us to lose, we being our own worst enemy yet again, a lesson we apparently didn't learn from Vietnam. This coalition of countries seems ready, willing, and able to get the job done. And who the hell are we fighting for anyway? We won't recognize Assad, and are willing to make the mistakes of Egypt, Libya, Iraq etc all over again. Assad may be a bastard, but whatever the hell replaces him, will be worse. All we're doing right now, is putting our own guys at high risk, for very little reason or return.

[waveshaper]

This CF has me reminiscing about the good old days and how the Allies (big four; US, Russia, UK, and China) worked together to defeat the Axis/shape the future of the world. This dubious alliance worked well to ruthlessly crush our Axis enemies but basically "Sucked" at shaping the future. Caution; The good old days were short lived and followed by a heavy dose of reality and 40 plus years of blowback/unintended consequences (particularly; the Cold War and all the little hot wars that came with it).

 

The good old days/four meetings that shaped the world; 
1. The 1943 Tehran Conference; 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tehran_Conference#/media/File:Tehran_Conference,_1943.jpg
2. What about China? The 1943 Cairo Conference;
 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cairo_Conference#/media/File:Cairo_conference.jpg
3. The 1945 Yalta (Crimea) Conference;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yalta_Conference#/media/File:Yalta_Conference_(Churchill,_Roosevelt,_Stalin)_(B%26W).jpg
4. The 1945 Potsdam Conference;
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potsdam_Conference#/media/File:Bundesarchiv_Bild_183-R67561,_Potsdamer_Konferenz,_Konferenztisch.jpg

Fast forward to toady; The US Leadership needs to be quicker on their feet at this game of international "Musical Chairs" if they want a seat at the table with the big boys. Conversely, does the US really want/need a seat at this table?   As of 28 Sep 15; Russia has a seat (Putin), the potential US seat is vacant, the UK's seat is now occupied by Iran (The Supreme Leader), and it appears that China also wants a seat at the table. 

[Clark Griswold]

This CF has me reminiscing about the good old days and how the Allies (big four; US, Russia, UK, and China) worked together to defeat the Axis/shape the future of the world. This dubious alliance worked well to ruthlessly crush our Axis enemies but basically "Sucked" at shaping the future. Caution; The good old days were short lived and followed by a heavy dose of reality and 40 plus years of blowback/unintended consequences (particularly; the Cold War and all the little hot wars that came with it). The good old days/four meetings that shaped the world; 

1. The 1943 Tehran Conference; 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tehran_Conference#/media/File:Tehran_Conference,_1943.jpg

2. What about China? The 1943 Cairo Conference;

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cairo_Conference#/media/File:Cairo_conference.jpg

3. The 1945 Yalta (Crimea) Conference;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yalta_Conference#/media/File:Yalta_Conference_(Churchill,_Roosevelt,_Stalin)_(B%26W).jpg

4. The 1945 Potsdam Conference;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potsdam_Conference#/media/File:Bundesarchiv_Bild_183-R67561,_Potsdamer_Konferenz,_Konferenztisch.jpgFast forward to toady; The US Leadership needs to be quicker on their feet at this game of international "Musical Chairs" if they want a seat at the table with the big boys. Conversely, does the US really want/need a seat at this table?   As of 28 Sep 15; Russia has a seat (Putin), the potential US seat is vacant, the UK's seat is now occupied by Iran (The Supreme Leader), and it appears that China also wants a seat at the table. 

But what about human rights and the environment ? My friends at Amnesty International would be so disappointed in the wise and decisive use of the IOPs...

They want an Arab / Islamic nation to be like the West and live in the delusion that there is a Islamic Thomas Jefferson just waiting for international support so he can bring forth a secular progressive Nation where an Islamic one previously existed - not gonna happen and exposing them to our value system will not make them adopt it - they take advantage of us and use our best qualities against us - 80% of the "refugees" are unaccompanied males 18-40 years of age

This is an existential moment for the liberal democracies of the West - if we do not act the python will slowly suffocate us

But off my rant and back to the subject - they are a JV team just trying to run out the clock

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Follow on:

Imagine this in your town

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3249667/Germany-state-SIEGE-Merkel-cheered-opened-floodgates-migrants-gangs-men-roaming-streets-young-German-women-told-cover-mood-s-changing.html

[Majestik Møøse]

So Russia, Iran, Iraq, Syria, and China are all working together. Meanwhile...the US trained/backed "moderate" rebels immediately defected to ISIS along with their military equipment.

You could be a writer for RT.com.

[M2]

We sent 75 newly trained fighters into Syria on their own, what the hell did people think was going to happen? These guys were expected to take the fight to 30,000-70,000 ISIS fighters, thousands of fighters belonging to dozens of smaller groups and the Syrian Army transiting in a couple pickup trucks.  The people that made that call should resign their commissions in shame.

They did exactly what I expected they would...and I love CENTCOM's hard-hitting response!

US-trained Syria fighters gave equipment to Nusra Front

The Pentagon has said that a group of US-trained Syrian fighters has handed over ammunition and equipment to al-Nusra Front, al-Qaeda's affiliate in the country, purportedly in exchange for safe passage.

The acknowledgement contrasted with earlier denials by the US defence department of reports that some fighters had either defected or handed over gear.

"Unfortunately, we learned late today that the NSF (New Syrian Forces) unit now says it did, in fact, provide six pickup trucks and a portion of their ammunition to a suspected al-Nusra Front [group]," Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis said on Friday.

Colonel Patrick Ryder, a spokesman for Central Command, which is overseeing efforts against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), said the fighters had handed over the gear in exchange for safe passage in the Nusra operating area.

"If accurate, the report of NSF members providing equipment to al-Nusra Front is very concerning and a violation of Syria "train and equip" programme guidelines," Ryder said...

[Clark Griswold]

This sums it up

https://libertyunyielding.com/2014/06/06/phoning-obama-post-presidency-already-begun/

Only a year more+ of not giving a sh•t to put up with

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[waveshaper]

 

They did exactly what I expected they would...and I love CENTCOM's hard-hitting response!

Well that's strike 2 for this BS-ing Pentagon Spokesperson "Navy Capt. Jeff Davis". I trust Baghdad Bob more than this clown.

Strike 1; On 30 July this same Capt. Davis said the following about the original group of 54 US trained/equipped Syrian fighters sent into Syria. The info in his press release was later proven to be "Patently False". 
Excerpts from 30 July 15; I can tell you that the New Syrian Force personnel that are a part of our training program are all present and accounted for and none have been detained or captured,” said Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, a Defense Department spokesman.

Note; The denials from State and the Department of Defense were in sharp contrast to what The Washington Post, The New York Times, Reuters, BBC and The Associated Press were reporting at the time.

Strike 2; Earlier last week he said the following about the second group of US trained/equipped Syrian fighters sent into Syria. Once again, the info in his press release was proven to be "Patently False". 

Excerpt; Navy Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman, said it was "patently false" that there had been defections by the U.S. trained group to al-Nusra or that equipment had been handed over.

Edited September 28, 2015 by waveshaper

[StoleIt]

You could be a writer for RT.com.

Never heard of that site. But...thanks?