Saddle up for Syria? Or Op Deny Christmas '13

[sqwatch]

Never heard of that site. But...thanks?

Russian Television. provided many a laugh while waiting for the dinner push in Guam.

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[Clark Griswold]

Midnight Hot on F tv was the stuff manning the night desk

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[Clark Griswold]

Half a million no end in sight - I'm sure once Russia - Iran and Asad gear up the flow will subside ... not

500,000 AND COUNTING

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/09/29/record-numbers-arrive-europe-sea/73017148/

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[SurelySerious]

Half a million no end in sight - I'm sure once Russia - Iran and Asad gear up the flow will subside ... not

500,000 AND COUNTING

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2015/09/29/record-numbers-arrive-europe-sea/73017148/

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If their goal is to try driving the west to bankruptcy and chaos through the refugees generated by the Syrian unrest, they're exceeding expectations.

[Clark Griswold]

If their goal is to try driving the west to bankruptcy and chaos through the refugees generated by the Syrian unrest, they're exceeding expectations.

Yup

If not chaos / bankruptcy then one helluva problem(s) in our own countries

Long game strategy - encourage third world mass immigration to distract -deplete-divide your rivals

Not saying China has a perfect approach to the world but they do business they protect their interests and they don't try to save it - seems more feasible

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[zrooster99]

If this was discussed elsewhere, I appologize, but just heard on FNC that Russia did some bombing in Syria, and told us to stay the fuck out of the way.  Thoughts?

Edited September 30, 2015 by zrooster99
Outside of the box spelling...

[Clark Griswold]

If this was discussed elsewhere, I appologize, but just heard on FNC that Russia did some bombing in Seria, and told us to stay the fuck out of the way.  Thoughts?

Heard they gave a one hour heads up but that would not surprise me about GTFO message also being relayed

Raptor vs Su-30 not likely to meet

Don't worry Kerry told them that this is not a way for nations on the 21st century to behave - that'll fix it

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[zrooster99]

LOL!  I feel better already.  I don't think this will escalate into a shooting match between us, BUT the potential for an incident exists now that we've got armed warplanes in the same piece of sky...

Edited September 30, 2015 by zrooster99
Grammar...

[Lawman]

Well the bright side... At least we can get some real time combat SIGINT on them for once instead of the other way around...

[sqwatch]

ISeria,

it's no big deal, we'll just retrograde to irack or head north to terkee if it gets real.

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[zrooster99]

Syria...  Ceria... Zyereia...  I'll spell it how I want!  Lyk mei rynqueld auld azz  

[Clark Griswold]

No doubt the fighters have been told to back down if the Ruskies get frisky - they'll be issued a demerit at the UN along with an LOC

I wonder if the Turks will put up with shenanigans since this in their backyard ?

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[tac airlifter]

 

 

Don't worry Kerry told them that this is not a way for nations on the 21st century to behave - that'll fix it

 

that's a significant observation.  We think somehow our modern era has intellectually matured beyond mankinds gory history.  Not so, and our naïveté cannot be fixed unless first acknowledged.

[zrooster99]

It's going to be interesting.  Don't believe the administration has the stomach to stand up to them, so we'll lose face and look weak in the eyes of the world yet again.

[Clark Griswold]

that's a significant observation.  We think somehow our modern era has intellectually matured beyond mankinds gory history.  Not so, and our naïveté cannot be fixed unless first acknowledged.

Yup

I don't fault the President for wanting to disengage from the Middle Shithole but our dependence on the flow of oil to the global supply system doesn't allow that like it or not we or another global power will be the patron / guarantor of the various states as grouped by ethnicity or Islamic denomination - pick a side don't try to be friends with both sides because that's not possible and support as required to keep the crazies at bay when the oil runs out leave a note saying thanks for everything and GTFO

But on this immediate issue keep a distance from the Ruskies but do t back down if confronted - aid the Kurds and think out the container I know we don't have it in our military tradition but this conflict is perfect for an army like the FFL so either form an American version or encourage the French to use the Legion there with all the support we can give - secure the eastern half before Aaad gets it back then you have leverage if continue the f around and phone it in we'll have no say in the future there and that portends more trouble with Iran winning again by default

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[Snooter]

 

Yup

 

I don't fault the President for wanting to disengage from the Middle Shithole but our dependence on the flow of oil to the global supply system doesn't allow that like it or not we or another global power will be the patron / guarantor of the various states as grouped by ethnicity or Islamic denomination - pick a side don't try to be friends with both sides because that's not possible and support as required to keep the crazies at bay when the oil runs out leave a note saying thanks for everything and GTFO

 

 

Didn't we become the World's largest producer of oil last year? 

https://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/u-s-overtakes-saudi-arabia-russia-to-become-worlds-biggest-oil-producer-report

If Russia wants to deal with it, let them deal with it, we can handle over watch in Iraq and help the Kurds, at least we know they're cool.

[Clark Griswold]

 

Didn't we become the World's largest producer of oil last year? 

https://business.financialpost.com/news/energy/u-s-overtakes-saudi-arabia-russia-to-become-worlds-biggest-oil-producer-report

If Russia wants to deal with it, let them deal with it, we can handle over watch in Iraq and help the Kurds, at least we know they're cool.

For now but the Saudis don't like that so the tap is on to keep the price low - too low for US / Canadian - unconventional oil recovery sources (tar sands, shale, hyd. fracking) to be profitable, also it hurts their rivals the Iranians so a lot US production capacity is online for now but starting to be shuttered till oil is back in the 65 a barrel range, there is very little to no daylight between the demand and supply curves in the oil game, in the 70's with the first oil shock, the Arab boycott disrupted 3% of the supply at the time to the US but caused a quadrupling of the price in a matter of weeks, industrialized modern societies can't get enough of that delicious delicious oil crack...  

Foxtrot Alpha has a good article on Russian strategic aims in the ME with released footage of Russian airstrikes, bottom line, they want in to push us out or diminish our influence in the ME via a strategic foothold and influence in Syria with strong ties with Iran and Iraq.  Not acceptable as the Carter Doctrine sill should be applied here and Putin is anti-US so we have to react, like it or not, maneuver or be out maneuvered...

https://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/russia-begins-bombing-operations-in-syria-as-a-bigger-s-1733823079

Playing internet strategist the best move to counter Russia in Syria is actually in Ukraine, arm the shit out of the government there to quash the Russian fueled rebellion there, if you can't fight your enemy directly do it indirectly.  Distract his attention, focus and resources from the place you don't want him to be.  

 

[waveshaper]

Well, I learned something new "Today". Russia actually has a Grand Fleet in the landlocked Caspian Sea, equipped with cruise missiles, and this Caspian Sea flotilla can actually hit targets in Syria. Note; This info is just now being released  so I'm sure the details will change.

Excerpt (multiple sources) 7 Oct 15;
Four Russian Navy warships have fired a total of 26 missiles at the position of the terrorist group Islamic State in Syria. The missiles were fired from the Caspian Sea.
Four missile ships launched 26 cruise missiles at 11 targets.
The missiles flew some 1,500 km before reaching their targets. The attacks apparently required cooperation from Iran and Iraq, as the missiles had to travel through their airspace to reach Syria.

 

[StoleIt]

 

Russian Caspian Flotilla launches missiles at targets in Syria

[deaddebate]

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/622168/remarks-by-secretary-carter-at-a-troop-event-at-naval-air-station-sigonella-ita

Q: [...] how are we going to expect the military presence to adapt to the increasing Russian presence in the eastern Mediterranean and Levant region? 

SEC. CARTER: [...] we're going to keep on doing what we're doing, unchanged.  Now, the Russians are blundering into a situation -- and I've made this point repeatedly -- that is going to backlash on them. [...] So it's not going to have the effect that you -- meanwhile, in our counter-ISIL campaign, we're just going to keep on keeping on.

[Clark Griswold]

Russian Caspian Flotilla launches missiles at targets in Syria

RT has some more from the highlights reel:

https://www.rt.com/news/317864-russian-warships-missiles-launch/

Time to one up our friends in Moscow... Arc Light II 

 

[fire4effect]

All about the money........very little about Assad specifically....control Syria you wield a lot power over the world oil supply.......and global oil prices.....Putin knows what he has with our current administration and how far he can push.......in a year not so much....Afghanistan 1979 all over again. What's to stop them from pushing east and south once they own Syria 

Edited October 8, 2015 by fire4effect

[HeloDude]

All about the money........very little about Assad specifically....control Syria you wield a lot power over the world oil supply.......and global oil prices.....Putin knows what he has with our current administration and how far he can push.......in a year not so much....Afghanistan 1979 all over again

I definitely agree it's all about the money and power (the vast majority of politics is), but I disagree that anything with regards to this issue will change with the next administration.  The country is not the same as it was 15 years ago, much less what it was 35 years ago.  Also, the Middle East is losing its place when it comes to importance in the world...so not not only has our country changed, but the world, the world economy, etc has changed.  

[deaddebate]

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Transcripts/Transcript-View/Article/622454/press-conference-by-secretary-carter-at-nato-headquarters-brussels-belgium

SEC. CARTER: Russia has chosen to double-down on their longstanding relationship with Assad, committing additional military hardware capabilities and personnel. Now, the Russians originally said they were going in to fight ISIL and al-Nusra and other terrorist organizations. However, within days of deploying their forces, the Russians began striking targets that are not any of these groups. [...] We have not and will not agree to cooperate with Russia so long as they continue to pursue this misguided strategy. We've seen increasingly unprofessional behavior from Russian forces. They violated Turkish airspace, which as all of us here made clear earlier this week, and strongly affirmed today here in Brussels, is NATO airspace. They've shot cruise missiles from a ship in the Caspian Sea without warning. They've come within just a few miles of one of our unmanned aerial vehicles. They have initiated a joint ground offensive with the Syrian regime, shattering the facade that they're there to fight ISIL. This will have consequences for Russia itself, which is rightfully fearful of attack upon Russia. And I also expect that in coming days, the Russians will begin to suffer casualties in Syria. [...] We will continue to prosecute the counter-ISIL air campaign at the same pace and in the same battle space as we have since it started in Syria. We will continue to support the moderate Syrian opposition. We will seek an agreement with the Russians on professional safety procedures for coalition pilots. And we will leave the door open for Russia to rejoin the track toward a political transition in Damascus. We will also continue to make it clear that if Russia wants to end its international isolation, it must stop its aggression in eastern Ukraine, end its occupation and attempted annexation of Crimea, and live up to its commitments under the Minsk agreements. We must not let ourselves be distracted by Russian activities in Syria at the expense of holding them to task under Minsk. This was also the strong sense of the NATO meeting earlier today. [...]

Q: Did the United States and its allies get caught flat-footed by Russia's intervention in Syria to prop up Bashar al-Assad? And why are you so certain that Russia's strategy here is a losing one?

SEC. CARTER: [...] what is clear is that Russia said one thing and did another. Now that by itself, unfortunately, isn't new [...] So I think in this case, as in all cases, we have to watch behavior and not take at face value what Russia says because our experience here, Ukraine and elsewhere is that sometimes, the deeds and the words don't match up.

[fire4effect]

I definitely agree it's all about the money and power (the vast majority of politics is), but I disagree that anything with regards to this issue will change with the next administration.  The country is not the same as it was 15 years ago, much less what it was 35 years ago.  Also, the Middle East is losing its place when it comes to importance in the world...so not not only has our country changed, but the world, the world economy, etc has changed.  

Can't argue the point we're a different world/country economically/geopolitically and in 1980 our strongest response from the Democratic administration at the time to the invasion of Afghanistan was to boycott the Olympics....on a side note it was just reported that a potentially large untapped oil field was found in Israel to add a new wrinkle...but if Donald Trump somehow gets elected there's no telling how he would react to a Russian provocation......though we all hope that the realities of being president as opposed to running for president would be assessed rationally.....(that's where our senior military leadership owes POTUS  whomever it is the unvarnished truth)............Sunni/Shia animosity has only grown since we were all spending our many long deployments in Iraq and ISIS certainly hasn't helped the animosity. Would the Shiites from Iran and Iraq like to dominate Saudi Arabia/Suez Canal/Eastern Mediterranean/Israel etc...by actual or implied threat of force and be happy to let Russia provide the muscle? That to me is scary proposition.