Saddle up for Syria? Or Op Deny Christmas '13

[waveshaper]

Turks down Russian SU-24? Video shows the pilots ejected.

 

Excerpts; Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane near the Syrian border on Tuesday after repeated warnings over air space violations, but Moscow said it could prove the jet had not left Syrian air space.
 

Russia's defense ministry said one of its Su-24 fighter jets had been downed in Syria and that, according to preliminary information, the pilots were able to eject. It said the aircraft had been over Syria for the duration of its flight.

 

One of the pilots was in the hands of Turkmen forces in Syria who were looking for the other one, broadcaster CNN Turk reported, citing local sources. Russian military helicopters were also searching for the pilots.

https://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/24/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idUSKBN0TD0IR20151124#tlRsUHKy7VdzFW8r.97

[skosh]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/turkey-shoots-down-jet-near-border-with-syria

Turkey keeps it real... Raise your hand if you didn't see this one coming. Whose side are we on again?

Edited November 24, 2015 by skosh

[FishBowl]

Putin's Pissed/One aircrew member appears dead

[Azimuth]

The Turks posted the route of flight, via radar, of the flight path and where the Mig violated their airspace. They also warned them 10 times in five minutes.

Oh well.

[ExBoneOSO]

Ironic I got this in some random travel business email this am, though the shootdown probably isn't one of the advertised surprises.

[StoleIt]

The Turks posted the route of flight, via radar, of the flight path and where the Mig violated their airspace. They also warned them 10 times in five minutes.

Oh well.

That begs to question...are the Russians:
A) Incompetent at navigation

B) Knowingly violating a sovereign boarder

C) Profit?

[uhhello]

Also looks like they got a helo with a TOW (or the like) missile at or around the impact site.  

[waveshaper]

Just when I thought another layer of stupidity couldn't possibly be added to this CF, then I'm "once again" slapped back to reality.

One of many "Escalation" possibilities; I wouldn't be surprised if the Russian's "TRY" to down some Turkish aircraft when they enter Syrian airspace.

[FishBowl]

Fighter Sweep Coverage

More accurate than anything CNN will add.

[Azimuth]

Russian response:

mod_russia #SYRIA #Rudskoy Air defence to be reinforced. #Moskva cruiser with air defence system #Fort will go to the shore zone of #Latakia 11/24/15, 1:18 PM

[JeremiahWeed]

Also looks like they got a helo with a TOW (or the like) missile at or around the impact site.  

??

"Also........They got a helo"??

That statement makes it sound like you're saying the guy in the blue jeans setting up the missile and the Air Force of the sovereign nation of Turkey are one and the same.

[Prozac]

??

"Also........They got a helo"??

That statement makes it sound like you're saying the guy in the blue jeans setting up the missile and the Air Force of the sovereign nation of Turkey are one and the same.

That might be a more legitimate question than it seems. 

[JeremiahWeed]

I don't disagree.  The Russians have chosen to attempt to prop up the existing Syrian government by bombing the rebel Syrian forces (the guy in the jeans, by my guess).  That choice also probably means Russia is a de facto supporter of ISIS.  By doing that, they've put themselves at odds with the rebels for certain, as well as the rest of NATO and the civilized world battling ISIS.

While this situation may fall under the "enemy of my enemy, etc, etc." umbrella, to imply that the Syrian rebels attacking at target of opportunity from the forces that have been bombing them is somehow a coordinated effort with NATO, et al is a pretty big stretch in my opinion.

[JeremiahWeed]

That begs to question...are the Russians:A) Incompetent at navigation

B) Knowingly violating a sovereign boarder

C) Profit?

That little "tit" of Turkish territory sticking down into Syria that they violated is barely 3 NM across at it's widest point.  Do you really think it would be that difficult to accidentally fly over such a small piece of territory, especially if you're busy with other mission related duties?

[SurelySerious]

That little "tit" of Turkish territory sticking down into Syria that they violated is barely 3 NM across at it's widest point.  Do you really think it would be that difficult to accidentally fly over such a small piece of territory, especially if you're busy with other mission related duties?

No, but a similar offense would sure as hell get you kicked out of Afghanistan in 2012.

[Prozac]

While I agree arguing that NATO is supporting the deliberate targeting of Russian forces is a stretch, I don't think it's out of line to speculate on just how much support some of these groups are receiving from the Turks. Turkey has not been happy about Russian air strikes on these Turkmen rebels. Perhaps they were just waiting for any incursion, no matter how slight, as an excuse to provide some counter air for these folks. The guy in the jeans launching the TOW may not have been a Turkish citizen, but I'd be willing to bet he enjoys some semblance of support from Ankara. As has been mentioned already, this situation is beyond a clusterfuck. 

[Don Frank]

Knowing Russia, it's hard to believe that they weren't in Turkish airspace at all or had such a navigational mistake that prevented them from heeding 10 warning. 

[hindsight2020]

well, there goes the airline hiring wave.....

[Smokin]

Turkey had repeatedly talked to Russia about their bombing of that area.  The Russians are bombing the Turkey (and rest of the West) supported FSA.  Reference my post a month ago about Russia being more concerned with keeping Assad in power than defeating ISIS.

Two things surprise me about this.  The first is that the ISIS claimed bombing of the Russian airliner didn't significantly alter Putin's objectives in Syria.  The second is that the Turks had the balls to stand up to Russia bombing the Turkman groups in Syria.  At least someone is doing it.  A little sad and unexpected that the Western initiative in Syria is now being led by Turkey.

[Mark1]

 

Perhaps they were just waiting for any incursion, no matter how slight...

Does nobody remember that this is not the first incident?  I haven't seen any media outlet include it in their coverage.  There was an incursion back in October that was 'pushed' back by F-16s on the Turkish side.  They could have downed the Russian aircraft then, but did not.

Instead they took the passive approach and Erdogan released a statement which made clear that they would not hesitate to defend their borders in the future.  Russia apologized and said it wouldn't happen again.  Now it has, and Turkey responded exactly as they said they would.  Not much to complain about from the Russians, regardless of whether it complicates things.

Additionally, when you're a country which has made a routine out of military aircraft flights near foreign airspace for the sole sake of seeing how much provocation you can get away with, you lose the benefit of the doubt when one of your aircraft accidentally strays over an international border.

 

[Prozac]

No arguments from me. If, in fact, Turkish airspace was violated (as all credible accounts indicate), then they were well within their rights to take action. What isn't up for debate is that the incident has the potential to severely complicate an already muddled situation. What's the proper stance for the U.S. and NATO here? Who knows. My guess is the current admin will be somewhat less than decisive and we'll become further entwined in this shit show with no foreseeable end game. 

[Karl Hungus]

well, there goes the airline hiring wave.....

Oh?  Did an "Age 70" rule get passed?

[sqwatch]

  That choice also probably means Russia is a de facto supporter of ISIS.  .

Wrong

[sqwatch]

 The second is that the Turks had the balls to stand up to Russia bombing the Turkman groups in Syria.  

The Turks aren't the only ones in that area.

[sqwatch]

No arguments from me. If, in fact, Turkish airspace was violated (as all credible accounts indicate), then they were well within their rights to take action. What isn't up for debate is that the incident has the potential to severely complicate an already muddled situation. What's the proper stance for the U.S. and NATO here? Who knows. My guess is the current admin will be somewhat less than decisive and we'll become further entwined in this shit show with no foreseeable end game. 

What's within their rights and what is the politically (strategically) smart thing to do may have been obscured by Erdogan's new found political security, longstanding hatred of Assad and support for any group willing to dislodge him.

After the turkey-shoot, king Abdullah II (a huge US fan) and Putin met where the king offered his support and touted his country's strong relationship with Russia.

Now what?