Saddle up for Syria? Or Op Deny Christmas '13

[disgruntledemployee]

2 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

If I were a European politician I’d be in the SCIF right now figuring out how to deal with this likely problem early

Europe Migrant Crisis 2.0 Warnings Grow Following the Fall of Assad Regime in Syria

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/12/09/europe-migrant-crisis-2-0-warnings-grow-following-the-fall-of-assad-in-syria/


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If you were a European ally or part of a US Middle East IC team, you should have been in a SCIF 10 days ago.  Maybe they were.  But leaked anonymous govt sound bytes make it sound like nobody saw this coming.  To that point, did we (Central Command) not pay attention to fleeing aircraft and take action?  I mean we just launched B52s against ISIS targets.  Are we still allowed to do that and not take action against Assad?  If we had shot that asshole down, that would be like flipping two big ol middle fingers at Iran and Russia.  And the forces that ousted Assad might say thanks, much appreciated and maybe provide a seat at the table.

[Clark Griswold]

If you were a European ally or part of a US Middle East IC team, you should have been in a SCIF 10 days ago.  Maybe they were.  But leaked anonymous govt sound bites make it sound like nobody saw this coming.  To that point, did we (Central Command) not pay attention to fleeing aircraft and take action?  I mean we just launched B52s against ISIS targets.  Are we still allowed to do that and not take action against Assad?  If we had shot that asshole down, that would be like flipping two big ol middle fingers at Iran and Russia.  And the forces that ousted Assad might say thanks, much appreciated and maybe provide a seat at the table.

I think a lot of people were low SA as Assad looked like he had won didn’t realize how hollow his forces were
https://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2024/12/09/iran-makes-excuses-for-failing-to-protect-syrias-bashar-assad/
 
Russia is out of Schlitz, Iran got its nose broken by Israel while getting kicked in the balls and Hezbollah / Hamas are in self preservation mode, maybe the IC knew it and just kept their cards close to the vest but from the above posted article and the fact that Assad made it out, methinks the Russians cut a deal and had resources in place to get him out.  
What happens to their naval base is the $69,000 question… Edited December 10 by Clark Griswold

[disgruntledemployee]

1 hour ago, Clark Griswold said:

What happens to their naval base is the $69,000 question…

Forces that took and maintain control will take over the base.  If the Ruskies have any chance of keeping it, they have a marker in their possession, named Assad.

[uhhello]

3 minutes ago, disgruntledemployee said:

Forces that took and maintain control will take over the base.  If the Ruskies have any chance of keeping it, they have a marker in their possession, named Assad.

That base is smoking currently.  Along with every hardened shelter, MIG, and AAA/SAM the Israeli's could find.

[Lawman]

Forces that took and maintain control will take over the base.  If the Ruskies have any chance of keeping it, they have a marker in their possession, named Assad.

They saw the writing on the wall before it happened by a few days…

I don’t think they are getting this stuff back without some serious thought on the new leadership in town getting a say so.


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[tac airlifter]

One must respect the pure pragmatism of the Israeli's seizing an opportunity to destroy massive amounts of military hardware.  Our failure to act in a similarly decisive way after ousting Gaddafi from Libya had years long ramifications across the Sahel and ME.  I do wonder if Israel is over extending itself by expanding its occupation of Syrian territory, time will tell.

Separate but related: impossible to watch videos from Sednaya prison and not feel empathy towards HTS freeing them.  Assad was clearly evil, HTS also evil, IS evil... I don't think we can contribute anything helpful in that AO and I think we should leave.

[Clark Griswold]

0.1% chance but an interesting idea…

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2024/12/how-the-america-could-takeover-russias-tartus-naval-base-in-syria/

[BashiChuni]

"The U.S. Navy would be willing to defend the Alawis with air power should Syrian Sunni forces seek to push into the region."

 

absolutely not.

[BashiChuni]

[gearhog]

Looks like the good guys found one of Assad's family members.

Syria is finally free from tyranny!

https://x.com/MundoEConflicto/status/1866209781658075287

 

[M2]

27 minutes ago, gearhog said:

Looks like the good guys found one of Assad's family members.

Syria is finally free from tyranny!

https://x.com/MundoEConflicto/status/1866209781658075287

 

No bueno!

[DirkDiggler]

That guy is just taking a magical hot air balloon trip; the camera cropped out his ride.

[DirkDiggler]

4 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

0.1% chance but an interesting idea…

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2024/12/how-the-america-could-takeover-russias-tartus-naval-base-in-syria/

This is a really bad idea, on every level.

[Clark Griswold]

"The U.S. Navy would be willing to defend the Alawis with air power should Syrian Sunni forces seek to push into the region."
absolutely not.

I see it as risky (very) too but the problem is Sunni militant groups… we’re really not ok (Shiites too) with them and having a base and locally dependent populations interested in our presence there to keep HTS in check might be worth a stretch, not to fight HTS if we can help it but to keep Turkey, Iran and Russia from coming back and to keep HTS in the traditionally Sunni areas of Syria and not trying to destabilize/threaten Lebanon, Israel or Jordan.
Maybe offer both sides a deal and we get the base(s).
Maybe.

This is a really bad idea, on every level.

I seriously doubt we will do anything but the game goes on with or without us, we just need to know when and where to play.  
I wouldn’t say yes now but not a no either 

[General Chang]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/technology/aviation/american-mq-9-reaper-drone-crash-in-syria-shrouded-in-mystery/ar-AA1vBu0n
 

A couple of days into the brave new world, and we’re already shooting at each other…

[tac airlifter]

1 hour ago, M2 said:

No bueno!

Try this link, many taken down but it's pretty comprehensive.

[Day Man]

incredible video

 

[AC&W]

5 hours ago, Day Man said:

incredible video

 

Looks staged, despicable if in fact it was.

Edited December 12 by AC&W
Clarity

[uhhello]

47 minutes ago, AC&W said:

Looks staged. Despicable if true.

While CNN might have staged that specific incident, there are LOTS of videos 1,000,000x worse from the Syrian prison experience.  

[AC&W]

1 hour ago, uhhello said:

While CNN might have staged that specific incident, there are LOTS of videos 1,000,000x worse from the Syrian prison experience.  

I know. The videos are what motivated my statement above.

Edited December 12 by AC&W
Clarity

[uhhello]

59 minutes ago, AC&W said:

I know. They are what motivated my statement above.

Ah, I got it.  Misinterpreted the dispicable if true part. 

[uhhello]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14196789/Prisoner-freed-CNN-Assad-intelligence-henchman-report-claims.html

 

The 'hidden prisoner' who was rescued from a Syrian jail by CNN was a member of Bashar al-Assad's forces and killed and tortured civilians, a new report has claimed.

The prisoner, whose real name is Salama Mohammad Salama, was a first lieutenant in the Syrian Air Force Intelligence, which served former President Assad, Syrian fact-checking organization Verify-Sy reported.

Salama allegedly killed civilians and was responsible for detaining and torturing young men in Homs on fabricated charges, the organization claimed, citing residents.

But Homs residents claim Salama was thrown in the Damascus prison less than a month ago, due to a dispute with a higher ranking officer over money he allegedly extorted. He has since been trying to gain sympathy following the fall of the regime, claiming he was 'forced' into committing his crimes, Verify-Sy reported.

 

[tac airlifter]

There were so many videos of prisoners being freed from horrid conditions- legs sawed off, faces burned by acid, etc.  CNN finding the single fake one in that flood of legit humanitarian sorrow is why they truly are fake news.  And I’ve looked for additional fakes, can’t find them.