A new bomber. Anyone think the AF procurment people can get this right?

[Disco_Nav963]

Interesting amplifying data from the latest AFA Magazine:

(RDT&E funds in current year millions)

Program 2011 2012 2013

B-1B 33.1 33.0 16.3

B-2 244.7 280.3 317.0

B-52 129.9 93.8 53.2

LRS 192.8 294.9 291.7

The delta for BUFFs and BONEs is negative in both cases, and works out to a 50% cut over two years in both cases. The delta for the B-2 is up. Long Range Strike took a small cut.

[discus]

B-1s are the next bombers on the chopping block (mark my words). The B-2s may outlast the B-52s, but I think the newest bomber will replace them before the B-52s

I'm gonna have to disagree with you there. You can put a B-1 into depot, take it apart bolt by bolt, inspect it and put it back together. Not so much for the composite structure of the B-2. When the airframe reaches it's life limit, it's done, and nothing can bring it back. I'll bet ya a virtual on this one, BQ.

[Guest]

It's the lowest cost-per-DMPI platform we have

Huh?

[Dupe]

I'm gonna have to disagree with you there. You can put a B-1 into depot, take it apart bolt by bolt, inspect it and put it back together. Not so much for the composite structure of the B-2. When the airframe reaches it's life limit, it's done, and nothing can bring it back. I'll bet ya a virtual on this one, BQ.

I think BQ's right on this one. When you look at Disco's numbers, the B-1B will get a mere $16M in FY13. $16M is life-support for a major MDS like the Bone. If it stays that way for a few years, the B-1 will quickly be irrelevant in anything other than a benign environment. The writing is on the wall.

Edit: I used the adjective "mere" in back to back sentences. Bad form.

Edited April 2, 2012 by Dupe

[daynightindicator]

Huh?

if you look at AF total operating cost per hour and measure against the number of DMPIs one B-1 sortie can service that is an accurate assessment. suprised me too.

[Guest]

Interesting.

I'm curious about a couple things...

How much does a B-1 cost/hour? How many DMPIs can one B-1 "service"? How many hours per DMPI do you use to make the cost/DMPI?

[daynightindicator]

Interesting.

I'm curious about a couple things...

How much does a B-1 cost/hour? How many DMPIs can one B-1 "service"? How many hours per DMPI do you use to make the cost/DMPI?

i don't have the slide that this was briefed from (up at ACC staff) but the AFTOC was ~$50K-60K/hr - lowest of the bomber fleet. I think the assumptions regarding DMPI servicing were 24 per sortie, not sure what timeline they used.

While fighters were obviously cheaper by the hour, you really need to double those values to reflect a standard two-ship, and then you're still talking multiple formations to hit 24 targets.

Also, we were briefed that there are two ways cost per hour is calculated, and in one case the BUFF is cheaper (the B-2 is astronomically expensive no matter how you cut it). However the Air Force Total Operating Cost Per Hour (AFTOCPH) was briefed as the more relevant number, which is what I referenced above.

[schokie]

While fighters were obviously cheaper by the hour, you really need to double those values to reflect a standard two-ship, and then you're still talking multiple formations to hit 24 targets.

A Strike Eagle can hit 28 DMPIs in one pass. Or was that brief just comparing bombers?

[daynightindicator]

A Strike Eagle can hit 28 DMPIs in one pass. Or was that brief just comparing bombers?

I think it was talking GBU-31s. Technically a B-1 could hit 84 DMPIs with MK-82s but that wasn't what they were getting at.

[Guest]

Cool.

How many hours per sortie?

[BQZip01]

I'm gonna have to disagree with you there. You can put a B-1 into depot, take it apart bolt by bolt, inspect it and put it back together. Not so much for the composite structure of the B-2. When the airframe reaches it's life limit, it's done, and nothing can bring it back. I'll bet ya a virtual on this one, BQ.

Done!

[daynightindicator]

Cool.

How many hours per sortie?

depends on the conflict, doesn't it?

and that picture is just cruel. you know where we are now.

Edited April 3, 2012 by daynightindicator

[magnetfreezer]

i don't have the slide that this was briefed from (up at ACC staff) but the AFTOC was ~$50K-60K/hr - lowest of the bomber fleet. I think the assumptions regarding DMPI servicing were 24 per sortie, not sure what timeline they used.

While fighters were obviously cheaper by the hour, you really need to double those values to reflect a standard two-ship, and then you're still talking multiple formations to hit 24 targets.

Also, we were briefed that there are two ways cost per hour is calculated, and in one case the BUFF is cheaper (the B-2 is astronomically expensive no matter how you cut it). However the Air Force Total Operating Cost Per Hour (AFTOCPH) was briefed as the more relevant number, which is what I referenced above.

https://www.flightglobal.com/blogs/the-dewline/2011/08/exclusive-us-air-force-combat.html + wikipedia/FAS/public loadouts

B-2: 135k/hour - 16 GBU-31s -> 8.4K/DMPI

B-52: 72k/hour - 12 GBU-31s -> 6K/DMPI but the powerpoint slides are free

B-1: 63k/hour - 24 GBU-31s -> 2.6K/DMPI

F-15E: 28k/hour - 5 GBU-31s -> 5.6K/DMPI

F-16C: 19k/hour - 2 GBU-31s -> 9.5K/DMPI

[BigE]

Numbers are great.

So let's see, using smart weapons to make this argument. The B-2 carries 80x GBU38 at 135k/hr. That's only 1.69K per DMPI! Oh wait the F-15E carries GBU39! Fück -- I hate public math, let me go get my calculator...

Stupid argument, as Rainman is trying to point out.

[Jaded]

F-16 at 19k per hour? For reals? I thought it was like 6k.

[Guest]

Stupid argument, as Rainman is ineffectively trying to point out.

FIFY

[BQZip01]

https://www.flightglo...rce-combat.html + wikipedia/FAS/public loadouts

B-2: 135k/hour - 16 GBU-31s -> 8.4K/DMPI

B-52: 72k/hour - 12 GBU-31s -> 6K/DMPI but the powerpoint slides are still cheaper than everyone else's

B-1: 63k/hour - 24 GBU-31s -> 2.6K/DMPI

F-15E: 28k/hour - 5 GBU-31s -> 5.6K/DMPI

F-16C: 19k/hour - 2 GBU-31s -> 9.5K/DMPI

FIFY

Can you explain this "math"? Where do you get 72k per hour for the BUFFs? Did you factor in loiter time on a 4 hour transit time to/from the AOR?

Edited April 4, 2012 by BQZip01

[daynightindicator]

FIFY

Can you explain this "math"? Where do you get 72k per hour for the BUFFs? Did you factor in loiter time on a 4 hour transit time to/from the AOR?

from the website...

Writing about "costs" is always tricky. Numbers can vary dramatically depending on what gets included. In this case, we're talking about operational costs. This includes operations costs, including fuel, parts and maintenance, as well as interim contractor support and manpower. It excludes modifications funded by procurement accounts. The total cost number is divided by the total number of flight hours flown by the fleet, and that is the operational cost per flight hour.

from what i remember about what we were briefed those numbers look very accurate. whether they are a "good" way to measure the effectiveness of an aircraft is up for debate.

Edited April 4, 2012 by daynightindicator

[Guest]

ugh

[BQZip01]

Writing about "costs" is always tricky.

No joke.

Example: This chart ONLY considers the best aspects of the B-1. It doesn't take into account the fact that the B-1s aren't nuke capable and the BUFFs are the only ones that fly with the ALCM & CALCM. Throw on top of that the combat range of the B-1 (3000NM) vs either of the other two (B-52: 4500NM & B-2: estimated ~2500NM), so range and loiter time clearly aren't factored in.

Does the B-1 work with JASSM frequently? MALD?

[SuperWSO]

No joke.

Example: This chart ONLY considers the best aspects of the B-1. It doesn't take into account the fact that the B-1s aren't nuke capable and the BUFFs are the only ones that fly with the ALCM & CALCM. Throw on top of that the combat range of the B-1 (3000NM) vs either of the other two (B-52: 4500NM & B-2: estimated ~2500NM), so range and loiter time clearly aren't factored in.

Does the B-1 work with JASSM frequently? MALD?

I hate wading into the bomber free-for-all again, but the initial point (valid or not, its a statistic and we all know about those) was a comparison of various platforms in an attempt to get a cost per DPI. Several people have discussed range and loiter time. If you want to make this comparison (still not claiming it holds great value) you need to hold some of the variables constant to get a good comparison. Therefor, you either need to compare fuel burn and targets on a short range sortie (Nellis range from Nellis?) or compare fuel burn and targets on a long range sortie (F-16s flying from Diego Garcia?)

Second, you throw out that B-1s aren't nuke capable. They were, but the US Government traded that capability away as part of the START treaty. If we really had to, I'm sure the B-1 could go back, but I hope they don't.

Does the B-1 work with JASSM? Yes, I ran OT&E. We train to that capability. I'm sure you also know that MALD is initially planned to go to the B-52 and F-16 (Objective platforms) and will eventually migrate to others - B-1 included.

As to the initial statement that the B-1 may go away soon, I highly doubt that given its current role in the CENTCOM AOR.

We now return you to a debate about lies, damnable lies and statistics.

Edited April 13, 2012 by SuperWSO

[BQZip01]

I hate wading into the bomber free-for-all again, but the initial point (valid or not, its a statistic and we all know about those) was a comparison of various platforms in an attempt to get a cost per DMPI. Several people have discussed range and loiter time. If you want to make this comparison (still not claiming it holds great value) you need to hold some of the variables constant to get a good comparison. Therefor, you either need to compare fuel burn and targets on a short range sortie (Nellis range from Nellis?) or compare fuel burn and targets on a long range sortie (F-16s flying from Diego Garcia?)

Second, you throw out that B-1s aren't nuke capable. They were, but the US Government traded that capability away as part of the START treaty. If we really had to, I'm sure the B-1 could go back, but I hope they don't.

Does the B-1 work with JASSM? Yes, I ran OT&E. We train to that capability. I'm sure you also know that MALD is initially planned to go to the B-52 and F-16 (Objective platforms) and will eventually migrate to others - B-1 included.

As to the initial statement that the B-1 may go away soon, I highly doubt that given its current role in the CENTCOM AOR.

We now return you to a debate about lies, damnable lies and statistics.

All valid points

[Miles 69]

Sorry for the long post but as the creator/owner of this data I thought it was my place to explain what the purpose of these slides and what’s the desired effect.

BLUF: The intent of these slides is so I can show the TX, SD, CA, OK congressional delegation, the great work we are doing and beg and plead for more money.

These are programmatic slides the staff uses to present to pencil pushing number crunchers who only care about the bottom line. Congress often asks, how much do you cost me and what are your results? Right or wrong, these slides are examples of how we on the staff translate combat airpower into dollars.

Absolutely they are skewed to make the Bone look good. Almost every MDS PEM on the staff has slides like these, they range from $/DPI based on certain weapons (bomber guys use these) to Investment $ / combat sortie usage (A-10 guys use these). Viper and Strikes don’t need slides because everyone up on the hill loves them already.

So when you start to operationalize these slides by asking about sortie duration, loiter time and what type of weapon is needed to create the desired effect, you can easily shoot holes in them. Remember that’s not the intent of the slide.

The only true telling indicator in this data is the AFTOC CPFH. Most people quote CPFH #s from AFI 65-503, those numbers are much less because they do not include some Depot Level Repair or contractor logistic support (LO platforms live and die off of this). Basically the old school CPFH #’s you’ve heard all of your life are basically reimbursement costs, i.e what we’d charge Paramount for using CAF platforms in a new movie. AFTOC data is the true indicator.

With regards to your original argument; will the LRS-B be cheap, and what will go to the bone yard 1^st the Bone or the Buff? Continue to speculate, but I’ll tell you this, if sequestration happens, it won’t matter because your debate will be the equivalent of just rearranging deck chairs on the titanic.

[Bluto]

I think it was talking GBU-31s. Technically a B-1 could hit 84 DMPIs with MK-82s but that wasn't what they were getting at.

So a B-1 can hit 84 DMPIs with 84 unguided weapons? Technically I think you're wrong.

So what about the B-2 carrying 80 GBU-38s? That is 80 individual DMPIs so I suppose that drives the cost down right.

Edited April 5, 2012 by Bluto

[TAMInated]

So a B-1 can hit 84 DPIs with 84 unguided weapons? Technically you're wrong.

1 DMPI, not 84 DPIs.