Stop Loss For 11F

[Vetter]

Heard a rumor the other day in the Squadron of stop loss for 11Fs starting in 2013. Has anyone else heard such speculation? I know we are pretty undermanned, but I know a bunch of people who are going to be pissed...myself included.

If no one else has heard it, I'm starting the rumor here and now. Discuss...

Edited July 2, 2012 by Vetter

[Ram]

I wouldn't be surprised.

In fact, I've seen it coming for a year.

[Tank]

Fiscal year 2013 or Calendar year 2013?

[moosepileit]

2013Z, as we joke at an airline... Any given day, that's as far as they can get ahead of the curve.

[Danger41]

What about those massive numbers of 38 studs that went heavies and afsoc over the last few years? Are their communities undermanned as well? Guarantee you could get bodies from those folks.

[AnimalMother]

So you're telling me that 4 years ago Big Blue raped ACC for pilots to send to fill shipping containers, then they paid a bunch more to go during the VSP/RIF debacle, and now, all of a sudden we have a massive shortage for which the only solution is stop-loss? I find this hard to believe....oh wait....no I don't.

[TAMInated]

I'd be happy to stay in as an 11F if I were allowed to do things that 11Fs do (fly fighters)

[epsilon]

Sounds pretty extreme. Though, I wouldn't be surprised at a knee jerk reaction. The writing for the airline boom has been on the wall for years now. If they couldn't see that coming (sts) then they are idiots.

I wonder how that would affect guys wanting to stay in with 10 yr ADSCs. Would the bonus still be a player?

[hindsight2020]

I'd be happy to stay in as an 11F if I were allowed to do things that 11Fs do (fly fighters)

Of course I you know better, which is why you said that.....And that's the rub and the fucking irony of it all. The shortage refers to a shortage of people with 11F code to go do shit jobs and no flying. It is NOT a shortage of 11Fs to go fly fighters. Noobs might get a boner thinking 'oh shit, fighter pilot shortage', let's make it clear to the peanut gallery, this is one shortage you don't want to be caught with 11F stink on. The irony of an 11F stop loss would be epic.

[BFM this]

The shortage refers to a shortage of people with 11F code to go do shit jobs and no flying. It is NOT a shortage of 11Fs to go fly fighters.

Which is why this might be the smart, albeit short term play, ironically. I know dudes that are on their fourth (4) ops assignment. You might be able to sell someone nearing the end of their second assignement that there is still hope of returning to the jet after ALO/whitejet/etc. Likewise, that opens up the oppurtunity to draw from the deepest well as TAMInated alluded to: the TAMI-21'ers. If there is anyone who will pay you back with a few extra years service for the opportunity to get back into their jet, it's prob these folks. From there, your next deepest well will be the rest of the 11F's that have been sitting in dumpsters.

And there is hope: just had two dudes in my sq get their ticket to the island with this vml: they are going back to their pointy nosed jet.

But this all assumes that RPA's aren't among the list of bills that the porch has to pay--false assumption, and probably why hindsight is right, and this will never happen. But I also see it as the reason why we will not see a stop loss, for two reasons:

#1: In order for a stop loss to be implemented, Big Blue would have to admit that it fucked up. Uhhmmm, yeah right. It was one thing for the mass wave of stop losses that happened a-la early 2003, ergo,

#2: There is no looming contingency op (other that those that have been ongoing for 10yrs+), so that would further feed the vicious WTF-cycle back to #1. No, a projected airline hiring wave, itself the brainchild of quite a few economic assumptions, does not constitute a contingency. Sorry.

My bet is that the AF will go to congress with it's hat in hand and ask for the easiest (and arguably least effective) solution: higher bonuses. FY14.

[Karl Hungus]

Are their communities undermanned as well?

Yep.

[BitteEinBit]

My bet is that the AF will go to congress with it's hat in hand and ask for the easiest (and arguably least effective) solution: higher bonuses. FY14.

...to which congress will answer with "Let me see if I have this straight General. Over the past few years you have cut fighter pilot production, RIFd pilots with pay, non-continued pilots with pay, and offered voluntary separation pay for pilots to get out, and now you want more money to pay to keep pilots in? What am I missing here?" THAT is the meeting with congress I keep talking about wanting to see. I want to see Gen Schwartz have to answer that question and not Gen Welsh as he is cleaning up the mess he clearly saw coming.

The AF is set up to crossflow some pilots with T-38 experince from the 11M AFSCs like they did in the 90s to kind of help with the problem, but then that overmanned 11M AFSC doesn't seem so overmanned anymore.

Why is it that a bunch of people on an Internet forum have been talking about this very thing happening for the past 3-4 years, but the people whose job it is to manage things like this couldn't see it coming? Especially when the exact same thing happened just 15 short years ago? How frustrating to watch...

Stop loss? I don't think it will go that far. Pilot shortage that has to be explained to congress? Absolutely.

Edited July 2, 2012 by BitteEinBit

[DC]

Congress will see it this way: One man's pilot shortage is another man's cockpit overage. Why cut once when you can cut twice! I hope you guys aren't seriously looking to Congress to fix anything, are you!?

[BFM this]

Ok, I'm going to go out on a limb and spur debate in the false hope that there is really a mythical flag officer lurking...

In my last couple of years in Hogs, it seemed as though everyone who didn't get another ops assignment felt "shitcanned", as though there were no earthly way that they would ever get back to the jet again.

When did we start looking upon all out-of-the-cockpit tours as one-way? I thought that these were intended, among other things, to support the overall effort and be "broadening" tours.

I understand that neither FTU production nor professional development opportunities in the ops world will support everyone getting a tx course that wants one. But we've seriously oversteered that course. TX course slots are written on the wall when someone is staring at their RPA/ALO/AETC assignment. Noone trusts Big Blue even one iota at this point--and we're about to pay for it.

We're running FTU like Marine Boot Camp, as though we expect 70-85% attrition from first term boots, and we're going to keep milling out new recruits to keep up with the outflow.

My suggestion is this: dial it back a bit at the B-course. It's not an exact 1 for 1 tradeoff from a tx to a b-course'er, so some money will be made there right off the bat. We can't obviously have a moratorium on b-courses (though I wouldn't put it past the AF to try that), I do understand that we do have to keep new blood flowing in. But if more TX courses are available, you could show the dudes in the squadron--the ones there right now--that there is life after an ALFA, and maybe, just maybe, they won't punch right at their ADSC because they fully expect to get bent over on their next assignment. The way that we show them this is to have dudes show up at hail-and-farewells fresh from their ALO/AETC/RPA assignments. Suddenly, the ones that wouldn't otherwise punch at their first opportunity might see other options.

Wishful thinking, I know. Life isn't fair, and none of this will ever happen. Let's discuss.

[Magnum]

BFM this,

Here's what it boils down to. Like many have said, there is a fighter pilot shortage but not in the cockpit - in the shitty jobs no one wants. The Air Force has projections on how many people will bail vs sign the bonus vs just continue as is. So they are left with the decision of making a new fighter pilot with about 2-3x the resources it takes to bring one back from a non fighter assignment. If they choose the B-course, their fighter pilot shortage becomes smaller. If they choose the TX-course, their shortage remains the same. I seriously doubt that their separation numbers factor in morale over the last couple years. Not to mention the fact that we only recently hit the start of 10 year dudes being able to bail. I'm willing to bet that their projections are skewed which is why they think throwing more B-courses into the mix will fix the problem.

So now we build a new fighter pilot only to let one walk out the door. Besides non-flying staff manning shortages, they are also looking at pilot requirements to fill the F-35. There is a pretty substantial shortage there as well, but they probably don't need to worry about that for at least another 6-9 years. If it ever does come on line in the numbers originally projected, there will probably be some good motivation across the board to stay in.

[Jaded]

Anybody know what the ACP take rate is so far this year?

[ClearedHot]

Anybody know what the ACP take rate is so far this year?

Discussed in another thread but I think we are switchover to the 10 year ADSC for UPT, so the sample size for this year has been very small.

[matmacwc]

Discussed in another thread but I think we are switchover to the 10 year ADSC for UPT, so the sample size for this year has been very small.

That train started the end of September (last year), should be a larger sample size by now. I should know......... ALOT of my fighter buddies left, thats what I know.

[Bergman]

#1: In order for a stop loss to be implemented, Big Blue would have to admit that it fucked up. Uhhmmm, yeah right. It was one thing for the mass wave of stop losses that happened a-la early 2003, ergo,

I want to see Gen Schwartz have to answer that question and not Gen Welsh as he is cleaning up the mess he clearly saw coming.

What is going to happen is the AF will admit nothing and then play possum (do nothing) until the new CoS arrives and then hand Gen Welsh several heaping, steamy piles of shit to wade through.

Stop loss? I don't think it will go that far. Pilot shortage that has to be explained to congress? Absolutely.

I agree that it won't go all the way to stop loss, unless a new conflict suddenly erupts. Unfortunately, I also don't think this will even be a blip on congress' radar, especially with this being an election year.

A 15 year cycle of stupid decisions repeating themselves seems about right based on watching it happen twice now.

[BCan]

This discussion makes me ill. I can't even put it into words. Locking dudes into what is essentially a 12 yr commitment, how do you offer 11Fs the same bonus as everyone else?...and then have the balls to stop-loss them at the end of the war?

Hell...I'm still on the fence on staying in....but taking dudes options off the table after they've given 12 years and multiple deployments is beyond f'd up. Didn't dudes just get RIF'd? I must be drunk right now. FML.

[DEVIL]

It sounds like guys are being kept around for staff jobs, you guys think they'll increase 11F's out of UPT?

[brewskis]

It sounds like guys are being kept around for staff jobs, you guys think they'll increase 11F's out of UPT?

They already are.

Edited July 3, 2012 by brewskis

[BCan]

Can anyone reference the law regarding stop-loss? Every secondary source I found refers to enlistments that are shorter than 8 years...stop-loss being used to extend the enlistment into and/or up to the 8 year inactive reserve portion.

So can stop-loss be used on a pilot with a 10 year contract per the law?

[epsilon]

No more news on this? Ok, I'll just consider it squadron rumors, etc. Though I wouldn't put it past CSAF to consider it.

[Danger41]

But the new CSAF is going to make everything amazing and great! Didn't you know that? He would never do anything like that. (Sarcasm)