Investment showdown -- beyond the Roth, SDP, & TSP

[Breckey]

Quick collection of some of the best celebrity/politician/capitalist social media post about this: 
 

Mark your calendar: Ted Cruz just agreed with an AOC tweet.

[SurelySerious]

1 hour ago, Swamp Yankee said:

Wow.  Makes Ja Rule’s Fyre festival disaster look like nothing.   

The only thing Ja Rule is outraged about is he didn’t buy low. 

[FDNYOldGuy]

8 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

The only thing Ja Rule is outraged about is he didn’t buy low. 

Makes me think of Chapelle’s bit about why the hell people care what celebrities think. “Somebody get Ja Rule on the phone so he can make sense of all this!”

But, in reality, seeing the sheer number of people talking about this makes me think more of one of my favorite books: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, by Charles Mackay. It’s a nearly 200 year old book that talks about Tulip Mania, the South Seas Company, and the Mississippi Company and how average folks get swept up in get rich quick/can’t lose investments, as well as the aftermaths. Because the book was written in the 1840s, it doesn’t include the 1920s, the dot com, the housing bubble, and whatever we’re gonna call this next one, but it sure as hell seems to rhyme. It’s a good and quick read, for those that are interested. 

There’s a famous (if possibly made up) story of Joe Kennedy getting stock tips from the shoe shine boy on his way to work in 1929 and knowing the markets were toast. But, it does kinda hold true. When people you’d never consider talking about investments with are proffering investment advice, shit might be getting outta hand.

Gamestop/AMC/Blackberry business models, financial pictures, and/or operating environments didn’t drastically change in the last month, so the absolutely astounding increases aren’t based on anything fundamental. Doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy the ride or make money, but it’s not much more than going to Vegas and gambling. There will be losers.

Just be careful out there. Caveat emptor. 

[FLEA]

38 minutes ago, FDNYOldGuy said:

Makes me think of Chapelle’s bit about why the hell people care what celebrities think. “Somebody get Ja Rule on the phone so he can make sense of all this!”

But, in reality, seeing the sheer number of people talking about this makes me think more of one of my favorite books: Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, by Charles Mackay. It’s a nearly 200 year old book that talks about Tulip Mania, the South Seas Company, and the Mississippi Company and how average folks get swept up in get rich quick/can’t lose investments, as well as the aftermaths. Because the book was written in the 1840s, it doesn’t include the 1920s, the dot com, the housing bubble, and whatever we’re gonna call this next one, but it sure as hell seems to rhyme. It’s a good and quick read, for those that are interested. 

There’s a famous (if possibly made up) story of Joe Kennedy getting stock tips from the shoe shine boy on his way to work in 1929 and knowing the markets were toast. But, it does kinda hold true. When people you’d never consider talking about investments with are proffering investment advice, shit might be getting outta hand.

Gamestop/AMC/Blackberry business models, financial pictures, and/or operating environments didn’t drastically change in the last month, so the absolutely astounding increases aren’t based on anything fundamental. Doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy the ride or make money, but it’s not much more than going to Vegas and gambling. There will be losers.

Just be careful out there. Caveat emptor. 

That's the thing, the people doing this know there will be losers. One Reddit or said it best. "I didn't risk $38 to possible make $500. I risked $38 to possibly cost a billionaire hedge fund $500,000." 

There are people trying to get a nice chunk of change off of this but there are far far many more that just want to stick it to the man, and causing a hedge fund to collapse is the most rewarding way of doing that. 

[Kiloalpha]

I can't help but think this whole thing will end badly somehow, because the little man very very rarely wins.

That said, I bought $AMC on the dip. Partially because they just used the short sell spike to pay off their debt (very wise business decision) and also because I do think we'll see a rebound of people going out and doing shit after the 'rona subsides.

Relatively short term play, but a chance for decent gain. Couple that with this short squeeze and a chance to say f-you to the financial hedge fund bros? I had to. If I lose some/all? I sent a message, so it was worth it.

Also, this political bi-partisanship might be show, but I've seen from a number of outlets/articles that both sides are actually shocked by Robinhood's suspension of trading. So, for a brief moment, I felt relieved that something might get done. But, then I saw AOC tweeted this to Ted Cruz's agreement with her:

They can't get out of their own way, even when that "unity" happens by pure dumb luck. So much for that feeling; it was nice while it lasted.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Kiloalpha
Punctuation

[jazzdude]

But, then I saw AOC tweeted this to Ted Cruz's agreement with her:
They can't get out of their own way, even when that "unity" happens by pure dumb luck. So much for that feeling; it was nice while it lasted.

I don't have a problem with AOC's reaction. Seems like she's willing to work with the GOP in this issue, just not with the handful of Republicans that supported the rioters/insurrectionists and undermining our democracy.

The fact that the GOP hasn't taken any action against those handful of Republicans points to a lack of principle on the GOP's part.

[pawnman]

3 hours ago, FDNYOldGuy said:

 

Gamestop/AMC/Blackberry business models, financial pictures, and/or operating environments didn’t drastically change in the last month, so the absolutely astounding increases aren’t based on anything fundamental. Doesn’t mean you can’t enjoy the ride or make money, but it’s not much more than going to Vegas and gambling. There will be losers.

 

But that's just it.  GameStop is poised to dramatically change their business model.  The inciting incident was Ryan Cohen buying a ~12% share and taking over the board.  This is a guy who has extensive experience in building an online store.  And he's appointed Nintendo's Reggie Fils-Aime to the board of directors.

Do I think that makes GameStop worth $300+ a share?  Probably not.  But it was likely worth a lot more than Melvin Capital was driving towards.

[pawnman]

51 minutes ago, Kiloalpha said:

I can't help but think this whole thing will end badly somehow, because the little man very very rarely wins.

That said, I bought $AMC on the dip. Partially because they just used the short sell spike to pay off their debt (very wise business decision) and also because I do think we'll see a rebound of people going out and doing shit after the 'rona subsides.

Relatively short term play, but a chance for decent gain. Couple that with this short squeeze and a chance to say f-you to the financial hedge fund bros? I had to. If I lose some/all? I sent a message, so it was worth it.

Also, this political bi-partisanship might be show, but I've seen from a number of outlets/articles that both sides are actually shocked by Robinhood's suspension of trading. So, for a brief moment, I felt relieved that something might get done. But, then I saw AOC tweeted this to Ted Cruz's agreement with her:

They can't get out of their own way, even when that "unity" happens by pure dumb luck. So much for that feeling; it was nice while it lasted.

How many of you would go to the office every day if you thought someone in the building had attempted to murder you?

She's trading talking points for progress.  Can't let the leftist base know that you're willing to work with Ted Cruz.

[ClearedHot]

58 minutes ago, Kiloalpha said:

I can't help but think this whole thing will end badly somehow, because the little man very very rarely wins.

That said, I bought $AMC on the dip. Partially because they just used the short sell spike to pay off their debt (very wise business decision) and also because I do think we'll see a rebound of people going out and doing shit after the 'rona subsides.

Relatively short term play, but a chance for decent gain. Couple that with this short squeeze and a chance to say f-you to the financial hedge fund bros? I had to. If I lose some/all? I sent a message, so it was worth it.

Also, this political bi-partisanship might be show, but I've seen from a number of outlets/articles that both sides are actually shocked by Robinhood's suspension of trading. So, for a brief moment, I felt relieved that something might get done. But, then I saw AOC tweeted this to Ted Cruz's agreement with her:

They can't get out of their own way, even when that "unity" happens by pure dumb luck. So much for that feeling; it was nice while it lasted.

AOC is simply a horrible human being...

On the comedic relief front I found this too funny not to post.

[FLEA]

47 minutes ago, jazzdude said:

 

 

I don't have a problem with AOC's reaction. Seems like she's willing to work with the GOP in this issue, just not with the handful of Republicans that supported the rioters/insurrectionists and undermining our democracy.

The fact that the GOP hasn't taken any action against those handful of Republicans points to a lack of principle on the GOP's part.

 

Well, I guess you have a problem with AOC supporting riots to murder cops this summer right? Remember when she said riots should make people feel uncomfortable? Or are we being disingenuous? I actually have a lot of respect for AOC but this was a missed oppurtunity for her. Nothing about her comment is bipartisan, it's actually quite polarizing. She should have taken the higher road on this one. 

 

Basically, she just jeapordized the chances of this movement to have meaningful change for the average person by risking politicizing the issue; because she can't get over her own political ego. Unsat.

Edited January 29, 2021 by FLEA

[Swamp Yankee]

1 hour ago, pawnman said:

But that's just it.  GameStop is poised to dramatically change their business model.  The inciting incident was Ryan Cohen buying a ~12% share and taking over the board.  This is a guy who has extensive experience in building an online store.  And he's appointed Nintendo's Reggie Fils-Aime to the board of directors.

Do I think that makes GameStop worth $300+ a share?  Probably not.  But it was likely worth a lot more than Melvin Capital was driving towards.

I’ve been in the tech and retail electronics world for quite some time post USAF/ANG. GameStop will die.  Beyond their phony baloney four pillar recovery plan, the basic dynamic is this:  Gaming is a business with the least to gain from a retail presence.  Over 50% and growing game purchases are digital.  This will continue beyond the pandemic. When even consumer electronics companies that make products with a significant tactile aspect (e. g. Bose) are closing stores, the writing is on the wall.  Without retail, GameStop really has nothing unique to offer customers as an independent enterprise. Their online capability is lacking innovation and substance. My read is that Microsoft really partnered with them to harvest their marketing capability, use them as a separate entity to grow dedicated online infrastructure, and eventually mitigate their taxes via assuming debt via absorption. I have to say, I chuckled at the press release info about providing retail personnel with customized Surfaces to enhance the purchase experience. Basically trying to do what Apple did 10 yrs ago. 

That said, I love the fact that the average investor beat the big wigs at their own game.  Pure capitalism, not crony capitalism  .  

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by Swamp Yankee

[ClearedHot]

The average investor is at such a disadvantage...especially when the ruling class is all in on it.

Don't want to read the article...summary - The Pelosis bought Tesla call options right before Biden announced the entire government fleet was going to switch to EV.

https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2021/01/10280347/nancy-pelosi-tesla-stock-investment-politicians-ethics

 

[Swamp Yankee]

1 hour ago, FLEA said:

Well, I guess you have a problem with AOC supporting riots to murder cops this summer right? Remember when she said riots should make people feel uncomfortable? Or are we being disingenuous? I actually have a lot of respect for AOC but this was a missed oppurtunity for her. Nothing about her comment is bipartisan, it's actually quite polarizing. She should have taken the higher road on this one. 

 

Basically, she just jeapordized the chances of this movement to have meaningful change for the average person by risking politicizing the issue; because she can't get over her own political ego. Unsat.

It was nice to see AOC and Cruz with some backbone during the GameStop events, even if opportunistic.  AOC is like a whiny, if bright, teenager who reads Mother Jones but has no idea how the world works.  I don’t agree with 75% of what she says but I do think she means well, sort of like a young Bernie.  

Edited January 29, 2021 by Swamp Yankee

[Swamp Yankee]

12 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

The average investor is at such a disadvantage...especially when the ruling class is all in on it.

Don't want to read the article...summary - The Pelosis bought Tesla call options right before Biden announced the entire government fleet was going to switch to EV.

https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2021/01/10280347/nancy-pelosi-tesla-stock-investment-politicians-ethics

 

Yes.  Congress is the only place you can make $174k yet become a multimillionaire.  

[17D_guy]

Bought some GME @ $17, sold for a tiddy $1K gain at around $40.

Bought some more @ $128 avg...still holding.  This could tank, and I'm still up retardedly for the year.  I am hoping I can get it up (STS) enough to cover a good chunk of a new deck I need.  For real...we can't walk on it, it's a hazard.

I watched some of AOC's stream last night, didn't seem like a horrible human being. Seemed like an American I don't always agree with.  Get that "horrible human" shit out of here and into the Pres thread.  She had interesting guests on I also didn't agree with but provided very interesting perspective.

10 minutes ago, Swamp Yankee said:

Yes.  Congress is the only place you can make $174k yet become a multimillionaire.  

Funnily enough she spoke about this for a good clip.

That said it's been a wild ride seeing the clear manipulation in the market: timed equal volume sells to drive down price, the short-ladders, and finally locking out buyers on cash accounts (me).  How we don't have regulations against market makers also being/directly backing hedge funds is insane to me.  Same as we used to have on banks...until we got rid of them then...boom...2008.

 

Edit - here's the video of the dude that started it all:

 

Edited January 29, 2021 by 17D_guy
add video

[FLEA]

21 minutes ago, 17D_guy said:

Bought some GME @ $17, sold for a tiddy $1K gain at around $40.

Bought some more @ $128 avg...still holding.  This could tank, and I'm still up retardedly for the year.  I am hoping I can get it up (STS) enough to cover a good chunk of a new deck I need.  For real...we can't walk on it, it's a hazard.

I watched some of AOC's stream last night, didn't seem like a horrible human being. Seemed like an American I don't always agree with.  Get that "horrible human" shit out of here and into the Pres thread.  She had interesting guests on I also didn't agree with but provided very interesting perspective.

Funnily enough she spoke about this for a good clip.

That said it's been a wild ride seeing the clear manipulation in the market: timed equal volume sells to drive down price, the short-ladders, and finally locking out buyers on cash accounts (me).  How we don't have regulations against market makers also being/directly backing hedge funds is insane to me.  Same as we used to have on banks...until we got rid of them then...boom...2008.

 

Edit - here's the video of the dude that started it all:

 

She's a very genuine human with a general lack of expereince in goverernment and politics. I've spoke on it before in other threads but that's what I like about her, but in general, she does possess a generally high degree of moral courage, usually.... The fact that she gets on twitch every week to speak to young people about politics shows she knees her constituency and her base really well.

This instance was one exception. She could have taken a high road here but instead she went into her partisan egg shell. 

[ClearedHot]

20 minutes ago, FLEA said:

She's a very genuine human with a general lack of expereince in goverernment and politics. I've spoke on it before in other threads but that's what I like about her, but in general, she does possess a generally high degree of moral courage, usually.... The fact that she gets on twitch every week to speak to young people about politics shows she knees her constituency and her base really well.

This instance was one exception. She could have taken a high road here but instead she went into her partisan egg shell. 

I like the part where she called for government funding to reprogram people.  Nothing like a good old Pol Pot style communist reeducation camp.

[ClearedHot]

So the plot thickens on the Gamestop deal.

This morning all Robinhood employees were given a $40 gift card...LOL  Supposedly employees are disgusted by what happened yesterday and some want to speak out.  Citadel continued their manipulation this morning and is working with Robinhood in a vain attempt to manipulate some of the crypto currencies  (although Bitcoin was over $37,000 when I looked a little while ago) in an effort ot offset some of the hedge losses.  I have head some of the Robinhood customers were using ethereum and such.

[Hacker]

7 hours ago, FDNYOldGuy said:

Gamestop/AMC/Blackberry business models, financial pictures, and/or operating environments didn’t drastically change in the last month, so the absolutely astounding increases aren’t based on anything fundamental.

Yep...and all of the failing banks and investment houses that were bailed out with taxpayer money in 2008 were also not based on anything fundamental.

Still gets back to manipulation being okay for a certain group of people, but not okay for others.

 

[BashiChuni]

just think how much value the future Robinhood IPO lost this week

[Hacker]

Hate to say it, but if you want to talk about "fundamentals", just about all the major passenger airline stocks that have been artificially kept aloft for the last 10 months are kind of short on "fundamentals" as well.

Trying to play that card to somehow make the Gamestop and AMC price increases invalid is thoroughly intellectually dishonest.

[17D_guy]

49 minutes ago, Hacker said:

Yep...and all of the failing banks and investment houses that were bailed out with taxpayer money in 2008 were also not based on anything fundamental.

Still gets back to manipulation being okay for a certain group of people, but not okay for others.

 

It's a short squeeze, it is fundamental. 

Happened in 2008 to VW as well.  Will GME be worth 326 (current price) in a month, almost certainly not.  But it's not going to be $4 either.  The fact it was shorted 140% is ridiculous, and when you get the chance to beat someone betting hard with a bad hand...I guess if they're a billionaire we're just supposed to walk away.

Fuck that.

[jazzdude]

Well, I guess you have a problem with AOC supporting riots to murder cops this summer right? Remember when she said riots should make people feel uncomfortable? Or are we being disingenuous? I actually have a lot of respect for AOC but this was a missed oppurtunity for her. Nothing about her comment is bipartisan, it's actually quite polarizing. She should have taken the higher road on this one. 
 
Basically, she just jeapordized the chances of this movement to have meaningful change for the average person by risking politicizing the issue; because she can't get over her own political ego. Unsat.

Riots and protests should make people uncomfortable. That's the point of even peaceful protests: make people uncomfortable enough to take action for your cause. Whether it's appealing to emotion, logic, values, etc. Even safety is not off the board if the issue is important enough, though it carries heavy consequences if you lose, or even potentially if you win. Fortunately, we generally don't get to violence in protests, but when it does, history favors the victors (terrorist vs freedom fighter is only separated by who wins and writes the history). Creating discomfort (to include civil disobedience) is the only way change really happens, especially in a democracy. It's why we have the right to assemble or petition the government.

I see AOC as sticking to what she seems to value in this case regarding Cruz: if you help incite a mob to storm the Capitol to threaten Congress with violence through your rhetoric, you're not worth working with in that same Capitol. That's not playing politics, that's just being principled.

Probably would've been better to take the high road here, but based on what I've seen of AOC's personality, it wasn't going to happen. But she's also done similar things with Democrats who think she's too outspoken as well, so I guess she provides snarky comments with equal opportunity regardless of party.

[Hacker]

My violence is "principled", and your violence is "terrorism".

Protest should make people uncomfortable....unless those people are elected representatives of the people, in which case it is illegal.

[Negatory]

Your comment made me think of this tribalism cartoon from way back.

Which applies to basically all facets of life.