Investment showdown -- beyond the Roth, SDP, & TSP

[TheNewGazmo]

I know this is a “Beyond the…” thread, but am I the only dude who didn’t realize that Roth TSP has no income limits? Any advantage (or possibility) of to trying to recharacterize my Trad TSP into the Roth?

This is something many people don't realize. Most think the same limits to Roth IRA's apply to Roth TSP (401k), but there are none. You are capped at the standard 401k annual contribution limits; $20,500 for '22. I don't care who you are, max out a Roth 401k for 30+ years and you will be enjoying $2M+ tax-free at 60 years old.

[bfargin]

I'm still on my silver and gold kick. The mint just did a new silver coin (.9999 silver) honoring and memorializing the "Negro Leagues". They aren't bullion grade so the premium over spot is huge, but they are pretty good looking coins. I'm kind of a baseball nut so ended up getting some. Pretty sweet looking coins.

https://catalog.usmint.gov/negro-leagues-baseball-commemorative-coin/

Edited May 6, 2022 by bfargin

[HeloDude]

On 10/7/2021 at 4:25 PM, ClearedHot said:

Bitcoin is back to $50,000.  As inflation continues and the clowns pushing more stimulus get closer to success Bitcoin is looking better and better.  I think $300,000 within two years.

Just curious if you think Bitcoin is on this trajectory (honest question)?  Given the inflation, I’m surprised it’s currently this low.

[ClearedHot]

27 minutes ago, HeloDude said:

Just curious if you think Bitcoin is on this trajectory (honest question)?  Given the inflation, I’m surprised it’s currently this low.

I think the environment on Crypto has changed for a host of reasons with one of the biggest being China outlawing all Crypto.  Two years ago there was a path to $300K but I think the emergence of new options took away a lot of the steam as investors sought to hit a million dollar home run on a $100 investment.  Ethereum gained a lot of traction for a host of reasons and hit $4000 before falling, I think the crystal ball believers saw it going to $12,000.  I never bought Bitcoin, thought it was fun to watch.  I did buy $3K worth of Dogecoin at .055 when it started to bump and sold half at .51 for a nice profit and kept the rest as a long-term Hail Mary.

I thought it might go back up due to inflation as you mention but it faces some serious headwinds beyond China...I think it was New York that has outlawed and is actively looking for mining operations.

[pawnman]

2 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Just curious if you think Bitcoin is on this trajectory (honest question)?  Given the inflation, I’m surprised it’s currently this low.

I've bought $500 in BTC, in $100 increments, over the last year. It's currently worth $235.

I'm not planning to buy more. 

[Lord Ratner]

Bitcoin will not go up until/unless the fed resumes Quantitative Easing. When exactly that happens is going to be the biggest factor in determining the fate of our entire economy.

[bfargin]

Bitcoin and all of the other crypto fascinate and for fun i bought a bit of it. But, they are still basically a fiat currency/money but don’t even have the “good faith” of a country backing them. Im not seeing any actual value behind them or the nft . As mentioned previously, we’re not making product/stuff anymore, so we’re just dreaming up new magic shitte to try and capture money from each other. I can see some value in the blockchain with transaction ease, security, and lowering transaction costs but don’t really see the benefit of crypto. Once the gov figures out how to control it, any value for anonymity will completely disappear too.

Edited June 30, 2022 by bfargin

[bfargin]

And, why is gold and silver not going crazy right now with inflation out of control? Most sellers are charging huge margins, but the spot prices are less than they were a year ago.

[di1630]

I bought 5k in crypto when it went down in Feb…watched it go to 8.5, now it’s at 3.2. Just play money but I’m not sure it’ll ever reach predicted peaks.

It’s funny the people at the sq bar who lived talking about all their gains when they bought at 30 and it shot up to 60 are silent.

[Lord Ratner]

15 hours ago, bfargin said:

And, why is gold and silver not going crazy right now with inflation out of control? Most sellers are charging huge margins, but the spot prices are less than they were a year ago.

First, strong dollar.

 

But more importantly, the broader market believes a few things that steer away from gold:

 

1. Inflation will be controlled by next year

2. The Fed will not raise rates as high as they are signaling, and will resume QE soon-ish.

3. Earnings will see double digit increases next year.

 

I think those three things are very wrong. But I also think there will be a deleveraging cascade that will hit gold and silver just like it did in March 2020. After the margin calls I plan to buy both. 

[DFRESH]

Any recommendations for a Financial Advisor/CPA? Looking for a unicorn that can handle stuff like helping establish trusts, tax advice/shelters, managing long-term investments, multiple LLCs, real property across multiple states... you know, all the standard active duty crazy stuff. I've been self-managing up until now, but my father-in-law recently passed and his sizeable life insurance policy, plus maybe taking the blood money, plus probably selling some real estate soon is making me want professional help to really grow wealth over the next 9-10 years. Thanks in advance.

[FDNYOldGuy]

5 hours ago, DFRESH said:

Any recommendations for a Financial Advisor/CPA? Looking for a unicorn that can handle stuff like helping establish trusts, tax advice/shelters, managing long-term investments, multiple LLCs, real property across multiple states... you know, all the standard active duty crazy stuff. I've been self-managing up until now, but my father-in-law recently passed and his sizeable life insurance policy, plus maybe taking the blood money, plus probably selling some real estate soon is making me want professional help to really grow wealth over the next 9-10 years. Thanks in advance.

If you find one, let me know! Haha.

All kidding aside, always down to discuss ideas, experiences, and options when it comes to investments/wealth management/managing businesses/etc. I miss being able to talk about investment ideas that are a little more complex and in-depth than, "Buy GME/Bitcoin/TSLA and print money!"

[DFRESH]

1 hour ago, FDNYOldGuy said:

If you find one, let me know! Haha.

All kidding aside, always down to discuss ideas, experiences, and options when it comes to investments/wealth management/managing businesses/etc. I miss being able to talk about investment ideas that are a little more complex and in-depth than, "Buy GME/Bitcoin/TSLA and print money!"

I heard Doge is going to the moon. 

[VMFA187]

I got into crypto about 13 months ago. Ended up finding an old 401k and put about 60k into different coins. About 4 months in I was up to $137k. Figured if this kept going for a couple years I wouldn't have to work full time anymore. Fast forward to now and I've got a solid $15k worth. 😆

Live and learn. Real estate seems like the best bet long term from what I've seen since I've been a homeowner. Time will tell. 

[ClearedHot]

Anyone ever purchased series I bonds?  Limited to $10K but they are paying 9+% right now.

Going to buy $10K for everyone in my family for a little pocket change.

[nsplayr]

18 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Anyone ever purchased series I bonds?  Limited to $10K but they are paying 9+% right now.

Going to buy $10K for everyone in my family for a little pocket change.

Yep, I bought two rounds now for each family member plus I helped my mom do it for herself, first in August 2021 and again in January 2022. The website is a pain but it’s been the best performing part of my portfolio by far. I only wish I could buy more!

[FDNYOldGuy]

On 7/14/2022 at 10:06 AM, ClearedHot said:

Anyone ever purchased series I bonds?

Samsies as @nsplayr. Bought some for me and the better half. As stated, crappy website and $10k annual limit per SSN, but it's something in this sea of turd options.

On 7/13/2022 at 8:33 PM, VMFA187 said:

I got into crypto about 13 months ago. Ended up finding an old 401k and put about 60k into different coins. About 4 months in I was up to $137k. Figured if this kept going for a couple years I wouldn't have to work full time anymore. Fast forward to now and I've got a solid $15k worth. 😆

Live and learn. Real estate seems like the best bet long term from what I've seen since I've been a homeowner. Time will tell. 

It's always Woulda/Coulda/Shoulda and that hindsight is always correct/you would have always played it expertly. If you'd sold at $80k you'd have felt like a genius looking back now, but you'd have gone through a stretch of kicking yourself when it rode from $80-$137 as "having missed the boat."

I had a stock I had bought for $1.18/share and sold north of $8/share in my Roth and felt pretty good about a 700+% gain. Until it went up and hit a high of almost $250/share and would have been north of $300k in profit (if I'd actually held it that long; which I probably wouldn't have). Counter point: held another one (wasn't gonna miss out on those gains this time!) and watched it go from $30k in the green to about $1500 up now. 

It's all gambling with a longer timeline to help fix mistakes (if you don't buy a total turd). Just keep plugging away and investing in the simple stuff (TSP stock funds, ETFs, Mutuals, etc.) and sit for the long haul for a majority. If you wanna gamble with some, it's everyone's prerogative. But, 99.69% of us aren't going to play it perfectly, most of the folks that were loudly spouting their market prowess sure do get quiet when they're wrong which gives most an improper picture, and there's always a victor's bias with folks that "called" this or that move, while not addressing the majority of folks that were stone cold wrong (or even just right, but at the wrong time). 

[Lord Ratner]

Anyone buying gold online? What sites do you use? I suspect all the big names are kosher, but I'd rather have a recommendation all the same.

 

I think the collapse of fiat currency is somewhere in the low single digits probability-wise, so I need to add something a bit "catastrophe proof" to my holdings.

 

Thanks

[HossHarris]

Invest in brass. 

[Lord Ratner]

2 hours ago, HossHarris said:

Invest in brass. 

I diversify 🤣😂

[HossHarris]

2 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

I diversify 🤣😂

Brass and lead and powder and a nice semi-automated progressive reloading setup?

[pawnman]

8 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

Anyone buying gold online? What sites do you use? I suspect all the big names are kosher, but I'd rather have a recommendation all the same.

 

I think the collapse of fiat currency is somewhere in the low single digits probability-wise, so I need to add something a bit "catastrophe proof" to my holdings.

 

Thanks

Guns and bullets. If a fiat currency collapses the way you're talking about, people with guns and bullets will just take the gold from people who don't have guns and bullets. 

[Lord Ratner]

1 hour ago, pawnman said:

Guns and bullets. If a fiat currency collapses the way you're talking about, people with guns and bullets will just take the gold from people who don't have guns and bullets. 

I have those already. 

[bfargin]

I've used California Numismatic (www.golddealer.com) for 35 years now with great success. They usually had the best margins out there and are established and solid. Lately however their margins are quite high (significant) with gold and silver. Check your state on sales tax as well, TN just started charging sales tax on silver and gold (even US mint coinage like the $1 Silver Eagle and $50 Gold Eagle - seems unfair) which creates an even larger margin. My brother bought some recently in TX and they don't charge sales tax on precious metal coins (bullion or U.S. minted) .

[ClearedHot]

Obviously a horrible day on Wall Street...All SELF INDUCED.

The core CPI rose sharply and we have gone from a potential lowering of the rate hike from 75 to 50 basis points to now a potential increase to a full 100 basis points.