Investment showdown -- beyond the Roth, SDP, & TSP

[Lord Ratner]

11 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

I enjoyed that he essentially told people to stop obsessing over the rate of increase in rates, and just to focus on the final rate without at all hinting what that final rate could be.

He did say it would be higher than the previous dot plot.

 

Ironically, it's not going to be the Fed that takes us into phase two of the bear market. The tidal wave of earnings revisions is starting to hit. That'll be ugly. 

[MilitaryToFinance]

16 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

I enjoyed that he essentially told people to stop obsessing over the rate of increase in rates, and just to focus on the final rate without at all hinting what that final rate could be.

You almost never get inflation under control while real rates are negative. So even if you use 5% PCE inflation, they need to keep raising rates until 5.5%+.

[malaika]

Personally, I'm not too keen on the idea of investing in bullets and assault rifles or lottery tickets, as they're not really traditional investment options and have their own potential risks and ethical considerations. In terms of investing in the stock market, I prefer to use candlestick reversal patterns. It's a technique used in technical analysis that can help identify potential trends and reversals in stock prices. There are also other investment strategies and tools out there that you may want to explore. Overall, I think it's great that you're thinking outside of the box when it comes to investing.

Edited February 27, 2023 by malaika

[ClearedHot]

My money guy called yesterday - "for the first time in 20 years I am recommending my clients put a portion of their wealth in CDs, if you have any cash I have some CDs that are paying 5%." 🤔

[Swizzle]

2 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

My money guy called yesterday - "for the first time in 20 years I am recommending my clients put a portion of their wealth in CDs, if you have any cash I have some CDs that are paying 5%." 🤔

On the flip side, put options or shorts are very viable now...also buying low/dip-day on classic, long producing dividend stocks

[FourFans]

From TreasuryDirect

[Lord Ratner]

Be careful with long bonds. The entire market is pricing in the defeat of inflation by early 2024. If the narrative shifts to entrenched inflation (got a little taste of that fear today), all bets are off with bonds.

 

Tbills, however, are a fantastic deal right now

[waveshaper]

Vanguard Brokered CD rates this PM. Note - these CD rates change daily and should continue to go up if the Fed keeps hiking interest rates, etc. Note; Vanguard deals in both callable and non-callable CDs, you probably want to buy only non-callable CDs (it's a complicated process, etc.).

 

Brokered CDs	Yield
	1 - 3 months	4 - 6 months	7 - 9 months	10 - 12 months	13 - 18 months	2 years	3 years	4 years	5 years	7 years	10+ years
Brokered CDs *	4.75%	4.90%	5.00%	5.15%	5.25%	5.10%	5.05%	5.10%	5.15%	4.25%	5.00%

[FourFans]

On 2/24/2023 at 3:29 PM, waveshaper said:

Vanguard Brokered CD rates this PM. Note - these CD rates change daily and should continue to go up if the Fed keeps hiking interest rates, etc. Note; Vanguard deals in both callable and non-callable CDs, you probably want to buy only non-callable CDs (it's a complicated process, etc.).

 

Brokered CDs	Yield
	1 - 3 months	4 - 6 months	7 - 9 months	10 - 12 months	13 - 18 months	2 years	3 years	4 years	5 years	7 years	10+ years
Brokered CDs *	4.75%	4.90%	5.00%	5.15%	5.25%	5.10%	5.05%	5.10%	5.15%	4.25%	5.00%

Haven't seen these rates since the 80's

Edit, I stand corrected

Edited February 26, 2023 by FourFans130

[nsplayr]

Hell my high-yield savings account that maintains full liquidity at any time is paying 3.75% right now and it's only going up as the Fed continues to raise rates. Crazy for someone my age who has never seen savings rates worth caring about in my adult life.

[Lord Ratner]

5 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

Haven't seen these rates since the 80's

When I was at the academy in 03-07 you could get a CD at 7%.

[TheNewGazmo]

Haven't seen these rates since the 80's

I had a money market savings in the 2006-2008 time frame that was paying 5%+. I threw $100k in there and was doing quite well with it. If only that had lasted. That's $160k+ after 10 years.

Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk

[FourFans]

On 2/24/2023 at 7:26 PM, nsplayr said:

Hell my high-yield savings account that maintains full liquidity at any time is paying 3.75% right now and it's only going up as the Fed continues to raise rates. Crazy for someone my age who has never seen savings rates worth caring about in my adult life.

You mind sharing the bank where you've got that high-yield saving account?  USAA has lost me.

Edited February 26, 2023 by FourFans130

[uhhello]

23 minutes ago, FourFans130 said:

You mind sharing the bank where you've got that high-yield saving account?  USAA has lost me.

I got 3.95 with standard lending club bank savings 

Edited February 26, 2023 by uhhello

[Lord Ratner]

34 minutes ago, FourFans130 said:

You mind sharing the bank where you've got that high-yield saving account?  USAA has lost me.

Wealthfront is simple and great. I use them for our emergency cash supply.

[TheNewGazmo]

I got 3.95 with standard lending club bank savings 

Thanks! Just opened a 4% APY high-yield savings with Lending Club. I have one with UFB Direct at 2.61% for my emergency savings, but I am taking my entire balance out of that and putting it in this one.

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[nsplayr]

14 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

You mind sharing the bank where you've got that high-yield saving account?  USAA has lost me.

I use Marcus by Goldman Sachs. FYI that is a referral link…both you and I would get an extra 1% on all balances for 3 months. I referred someone recently so have my cash balances at 4.75% rn which is great.

Also their daily transfer limit is $100K not some BS $5K like some other places. Easy/fast/free transfers, recurring, etc., all the stuff I have had complaints about with other companies.

Before them I had a few others over the years chasing rates here and there but Marcus has been solid, they get my endorsement.

Edited February 26, 2023 by nsplayr

[FourFans]

Thanks for the references!  @nsplayri'll let you know if we go down that road.

[di1630]

USAA has a 9 mo CD at 4.5%, American Express banking has a 3.5% High yield account.

I know I could find higher but I still like to keep my stuff with people I know for the simplicity of moving it/checking.


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[hindsight2020]

I had 6% with HSBC as recently as 2005, didn't last long. I'll take whatever I can get, but I don't expect these high yield saving accounts to persist for a decade or two, like I'd need to in order to amass the kind of retirement-expediting increases I'd need. But yes, been eyeballing Amex savings since I already use them as a primary grocery getter. Chase is doing nothing for my war chest right now.  

[FDNYOldGuy]

Used Bread Financial (Comenity Bank) savings account for about 6 months and worked fine. Paying 4.25% right now. They do have the $5k daily ACH out limit, if you're slinging big amounts back and forth. Guessing you can use whatever institution you're transferring it to's ACH feature and pull more, but never pressed to test. I just wired the money when I needed over that limit and it was processed the same day and fairly painless. Cost $25 to wire it, but the higher interest rate for 6 months more than made up for that cost. 

[ROCK 10]

Thanks for the Vanguard CD info, I think I’ll wait another 3-4 mos.  Take a look at their Federal Money Market rates - just over 4.5% last week VFMXX.  Daily dividend, pays out every month.  Been with them for many years, no complaints!

Edited February 28, 2023 by ROCK 10
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[slc]

Got a heads up on this a few months ago and locked in 3 separate Vanguard brokered CDs at 4.5-5% w/ maturities between 6-9 months your choice.  Not bad if you have alot of extra coin laying around

[herkbier]

I’ve been buying short terms bonds on treasury direct. Any reason to choose a CD over the treasury bills?

[nsplayr]

34 minutes ago, herkbier said:

I’ve been buying short terms bonds on treasury direct. Any reason to choose a CD over the treasury bills?

To me it's all just the PITA factor and what you're willing to put up with for a slightly higher rate. My hierarchy for preference for "cash" is: High Yield Savings > Money Market Fund > T Bills > Bank CD > Brokered CD, sorta rate dependent if any one of the above is a true outlier high or low.

I value not having to f around too much and remember ladders and buying/selling/etc. plus having liquidity for my actual cash. HYS and MMF retain both and I don't have to think about it at all. If T Bills or Bank CDs are significantly higher, might be worth the asspain to lock up some of my money. I'm not a fan of brokered CDs because there's a little extra risk but the again I'm not super smart on them so maybe I don't fully understand them compared to a bank CD.

Big picture I want "cash" for an emergency fund (like if I slept with the WG/CC daughter and get super-fired, etc...credit cards are for actual "normal" emergencies haha), but I also keep enough liquid money to jump on other investment opportunities and I don't want to have it locked up if I don't have to. I'd love to buy another rental property if/when prices & rates come down but I'm not exactly holding my breath...shoulda bought another one when I bought in 2021 but hindsight is 20/20 and if I had that I'd just do sports betting Back to the Future style and call it a day.

That being said I did buy a ton (for me) of I Bonds over the last 18 months because the rates on those were redic. 9.62% from May to Oct 2022 was 🤩 for something that's damn near completely safe. In that case I was willing to trade ease and liquidity for rates.

Edited February 28, 2023 by nsplayr