Investment showdown -- beyond the Roth, SDP, & TSP

[Runr6730]

Anyone else perplexed at the market right now?  There are almost no positive economic indicators at the moment yet the markets are steadily climbing back to pre-COVID levels.  I’m sitting here watching the unemployment numbers, profit/loss reports, etc and it just doesn’t make sense to me. The market is way overbought IMHO.

[nunya]

Unemployment numbers are meaningless right now. 

[FDNYOldGuy]

2 hours ago, Runr6730 said:

Anyone else perplexed at the market right now?  There are almost no positive economic indicators at the moment yet the markets are steadily climbing back to pre-COVID levels.  I’m sitting here watching the unemployment numbers, profit/loss reports, etc and it just doesn’t make sense to me. The market is way overbought IMHO.

First and foremost, stock market doesn’t equal the economy. The economy is, IMHO, headed for a serious recession (if not full Depression), but that doesn’t mean the corps that make up the stock market are hurting as bad as average Americans. They have a faucet of cheap debt and bailout cash to keep their profits up. 

~$3,000,000,000,000 in freshly printed bailout money, with a solid chunk going to corporations to buy back stock, pay bonuses, and take out more cheap debt to lather, rinse, repeat, is a large part of the stock market continued push.

Unemployment benefits and salary loans pushing off the inevitable are trying to stop the bleeding, but it’s not gonna hold. Oh, and the fact it’s an election year and I’m sure more than a few Rs and big money backers think (probably rightfully so) a tanking stock market will hurt election chances (hence higher future taxes), my guess is we’re in solid early-mid 2008 market between Bear Sterns failing and before Lehman went belly up. If it survives to the end of the year (no matter who wins the election), I’ll be pretty shocked. The real estate market might not be far behind, as unemployment hurts demand and the fallout of AirBnB pushes a glut of homes onto the (longer-term) rental and purchase market, I don’t see it being pretty.

Then again, I’m an idiot fireman trying to fly jets and not a trader for Goldman Sachs, so what the hell do I know?

Edited May 15, 2020 by FDNYOldGuy
Went a little more bearish

[pawnman]

13 hours ago, torqued said:

Don't get suckered. You are here:

Fortunately, there's a solution.
https://imgur.com/gallery/BlK4jzM

[FDNYOldGuy]

2 hours ago, pawnman said:

Fortunately, there's a solution.
https://imgur.com/gallery/BlK4jzM

100%. Time IN the market is better than timING the market. 

[Ryder1587]

This week has been amazing.  Glad I doubled down in April.  

[MilitaryToFinance]

SPACs have terrible track records when bought at NAV and "better burger" restaurants are a dime a dozen now with almost no barriers to entry. If you're treating this like a penny stock promotion and hoping the squeeze keeps running so you can sell to a greater fool tomorrow that's always possible. If you think you're getting a value buying it at over $18 before the deal even closes I think you should do some more detailed research and reassess your valuation.

[Day Man]

@MilitaryToFinance, what's your take on FNMA/FMCC now? I personally think there will be a wave of foreclosures in the next 6 months or so, but not sure how that affects these 2.

[MilitaryToFinance]

2 hours ago, Day Man said:

 

@MilitaryToFinance, what's your take on FNMA/FMCC now? I personally think there will be a wave of foreclosures in the next 6 months or so, but not sure how that affects these 2.

I ended up selling my preferred stock a few weeks after our previous discussion in June 2019 so I haven't paid as close attention over the last year. I would say there have been some concrete steps made in moving forward with the plan to get out of conservatorship. They have reserves against foreclosures right now and I don't really see it getting bad enough to cause a big problem for them. I'm more concerned about retail backed properties and some office values than I am residential mortgages. My biggest concern with FNMA/FMCC right now is the election. If Trump wins you probably get them released to be public companies again under his second term. If Biden wins I don't know that this gets done before Jan 2021.

[billy pilgrim]

I wish I understood what was going on right now...

S&P 500

 

Edited June 21, 2020 by billy pilgrim

[MilitaryToFinance]

I think this is what's going on right now.

 

[di1630]

Stock question: a few years back when oil prices tanked, I bought a myriad of oil funds dirt cheap. A few went bankrupt.

I never declared the losses when it happened 2 years ago, can I retroactively declare the loss to offset my capital gains even after 2 years?


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[pawnman]

On 12/29/2020 at 9:48 PM, di1630 said:

Stock question: a few years back when oil prices tanked, I bought a myriad of oil funds dirt cheap. A few went bankrupt.

I never declared the losses when it happened 2 years ago, can I retroactively declare the loss to offset my capital gains even after 2 years?


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

Pretty sure you're going to need to file an amended return for the year those companies went bankrupt, but you can carry the losses forward to offset capital gains this year.

[Orbit]

Who owns GME now?

[uhhello]

I had an order for a few hundred on AMC this morning but cancelled as soon as i placed it.  Of course it went up $4 bucks right as I did it.  Chickenshit at gambling. 

[pawnman]

7 hours ago, Orbit said:

Who owns GME now?

Nope.  I missed it.  Kinda wish I'd bought in at $20, but I'm definitely not buying in at $300+.

 

[ClearedHot]

29 minutes ago, pawnman said:

Nope.  I missed it.  Kinda wish I'd bought in at $20, but I'm definitely not buying in at $300+.

 

Gamestop....kidding.

It looks like today's Reddit Mob Market Mover is American Airlines.

[ImNotARobot]

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/could-american-airlines-become-the-next-gamestop-reddits-wallstreetbets-says-its-possible

[ryleypav]

1 hour ago, pawnman said:

Nope.  I missed it.  Kinda wish I'd bought in at $20, but I'm definitely not buying in at $300+.

 

Some dude has been holding calls on GME since 2019. The dude made over $25M in a day....unrealized of course. But still. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by ryleypav

[ClearedHot]

9 hours ago, uhhello said:

I had an order for a few hundred on AMC this morning but cancelled as soon as i placed it.  Of course it went up $4 bucks right as I did it.  Chickenshit at gambling. 

Did you have Blackberry in the bullpen? 

It is funny how the recent actions around Gamstop, AMC and Blackberry started.  I giant FU to moneymakers trying to short.  The Reddit mob punked them hard out of their short position.

[ryleypav]

4 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Did you have Blackberry in the bullpen? 

It is funny how the recent actions around Gamstop, AMC and Blackberry started.  I giant FU to moneymakers trying to short.  The Reddit mob punked them hard out of their short position.

I hate tik tok, but this is funny.

 

[Day Man]

10 hours ago, Orbit said:

Who owns GME now?

bought 100 shares a few days ago and immediately sold a covered call...missed ~$30k in profit 😐

[ryleypav]

Robinhood only allowing you to sell currently. Talk about rigging the system and stopping the short squeeze. 

[N730]

Who owns GME now?

I bought back in 2013 before the PS4 came out. Of course I bought it at like $40 a share, but I sure am glad I held when it dropped to like $4 a share.

I cashed out at 150, sadly. Would have been awesome if I could have sold at 450, but I'm still excited. It was a stock I'd written off as a loss and out of nowhere it turned into a 10k profit.

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[FLEA]

1 hour ago, ryleypav said:

Robinhood only allowing you to sell currently. Talk about rigging the system and stopping the short squeeze. 

As of right now you can still backdoor buy it by going getting to it through the top 100, FYI.