HeloDude Posted June 28, 2015 Author Posted June 28, 2015 I agree--Greece is fucked...but they did it to themselves, regardless of whether they have tax evaders or not, it's still their economic policy that did it. The good news is that if they get kicked off the Euro, the Drachma will be worth considerably less and the wife and I can take a trip to Greece on the relatively cheap. As for us, we're fucked, but our history/system will allow itself to survive a bit longer. As for how to fix it--in addition to reducing the spending, how about the federal government sells off some of that massive amount of land it owns in the mountain west and Alaska? A lot of people (referring to American citizens not the international investors) would love to own some of the land in either the BLM or National Forest. Some of that land can be developed for mining/natural resources, and some can be just owned because upper-middle class and rich people want to own some beautiful land without paying an arm and a leg for it (since right now the only land that is for sale is currently owned by someone else). The problem is that the progressives will never allow it as the environmentalists would consider it a tragedy...even to sell 10-20% of it, without touching the national parks. So the progressives would rather just take more of the wealth via taxes, which in turn reduces investment and thus reduces growth. To understand what made our economy massively grow in the late 1800's and the early and mid 1900's, you have to understand the history of what happened at that time...and given the nature of our changing American culture and its politics and the world economy, I don't see how that massive economic growth of the past can ever be seen again. And with our corrupt politicians getting to score their tax/spending bills on silly assumptions that will never happen, it's no suprise that it is not a question of if we're fucked, but when it will truly happen. Eventually one has to make a decision of when the best time to convert those 0 and 1's (that represent our wealth in banks/investments) to tangible assets such as property/land, machinery, precious metals (if you believe they'll still be worth something worth having in the future), supplies, etc. Right now Greeks are trying to salvage what they can from their bank accounts while they still can...theirs is a lesson to be learned out of all this...
Clark Griswold Posted June 28, 2015 Posted June 28, 2015 (edited) The Democratic Republic is failing the test of history unfortunately. Democracies are not proving capable of disciplining themselves and living well outside of its means, all of them are in debt, unfortunately I believe the next century will probably be dominated by the authoritarian systems that while not as productive or creative as free societies they have far greater abilities to defend their borders, economies, culture and harness what they have via command and conformity to out maneuver societies that require consensus to move. This quote is attributed usually to Alexander Fraser Tytler but has been attributed to Alexis de Tocqueville, either or it may be how it unfolds: A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship. The average age of the world's greatest civilisations from the beginning of history has been about 200 years. During those 200 years, these nations always progressed through the following sequence: From bondage to spiritual faith; From spiritual faith to great courage; From courage to liberty; From liberty to abundance; From abundance to selfishness; From selfishness to complacency; From complacency to apathy; From apathy to dependence; From dependence back into bondage. Not sure if we are at complacency to apathy or apathy to dependence yet. Edited June 28, 2015 by Clark Griswold 1
HeloDude Posted June 28, 2015 Author Posted June 28, 2015 Democracies are not proving capable of disciplining themselves and living well outside of its means, all of them are in debt... A democracy, in its definition, is tyranny from the majority. It is a state of mob rules. It's why pure democracies should always be feared and will always fail. I can argue that all of these countries that you're referring to have become more of a democracy lately, not less of one...hence the problem.
Clark Griswold Posted June 28, 2015 Posted June 28, 2015 (edited) A democracy, in its definition, is tyranny from the majority. It is a state of mob rules. It's why pure democracies should always be feared and will always fail. I can argue that all of these countries that you're referring to have become more of a democracy lately, not less of one...hence the problem. Good point but expanding on that idea I think we have seen the high water mark of democratization in China, Russia, KSA, etc... democracy requires consensus which is harder to get these days in large, diverse nations as the coalescing ideas of nationality are being assaulted by the atomizing of ethnicity, religion, class, cultural preference (religious v. secular), etc... It is sad that the democratic republic, democracy electing representatives who in theory are not governed by the passions, parochial and selfish interests are not able to make objective decisions based on outcomes best in the long term, at best the modern democracy seems to really only be capable of lurching from one edge to the next barely avoiding going over it. Edited June 28, 2015 by Clark Griswold
HU&W Posted June 28, 2015 Posted June 28, 2015 SS is simple to fix, index it to inflation instead of providing cost of living adjustments. That's the smartest thing I've read on the internet in quite some time.
Clark Griswold Posted June 28, 2015 Posted June 28, 2015 Greece also has a tax evasion problem on an absurd scale in addition to their out of control spending. There seems to be no appetite for addressing it. Blaming the Germans for not bailing them out seems to be the preferred solution. In short, they're fucked. We have a spending problem, primarily driven by Social Security and healthcare (obamacare, medicare, and chip) both at about 24% of the budget apiece. SS is simple to fix, index it to inflation instead of providing cost of living adjustments. This makes sense, but old folks oppose it so it's nearly impossible politically. How you drive down healthcare costs, I do not know. European countries get better healthcare results than us at a significantly lower price, so we should probably look into whatever it is they are doing. But we probably won't. In short, we're fucked as well. That's the smartest thing I've read on the internet in quite some time. 5 ways to fix SS - holding my breath (not) for any of the canidates for POTUS to demonstrate leadership and offer solutions... https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/planning-to-retire/2014/11/14/5-potential-social-security-fixes
HeloDude Posted June 28, 2015 Author Posted June 28, 2015 5 ways to fix SS - holding my breath (not) for any of the canidates for POTUS to demonstrate leadership and offer solutions... https://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/planning-to-retire/2014/11/14/5-potential-social-security-fixes Social Security in its current form is a Ponzi scheme--pure and simple. The money is collected by the government and borrowed against, thus the only way for your money to grow is for the government to collect more taxes and/or have a a continuous larger pool to collect SS payments from in prefer to pay off the previous payments.
Clark Griswold Posted June 28, 2015 Posted June 28, 2015 Social Security in its current form is a Ponzi scheme--pure and simple. The money is collected by the government and borrowed against, thus the only way for your money to grow is for the government to collect more taxes and/or have a a continuous larger pool to collect SS payments from in prefer to pay off the previous payments. Disagree respectfully. Why Social Security Is Not a Ponzi Scheme I agree with your sentiment (I infer) that it has become something it was originally not designed to be, which was a very modest pension program for widows, elderly and dependents when their provider was gone or unable to work any longer. Reform and modernize, proceed as required.
HeloDude Posted June 29, 2015 Author Posted June 29, 2015 Disagree respectfully. Why Social Security Is Not a Ponzi Scheme I agree with your sentiment (I infer) that it has become something it was originally not designed to be, which was a very modest pension program for widows, elderly and dependents when their provider was gone or unable to work any longer. Reform and modernize, proceed as required. Dude, your article emphasized all my points for me--that there is no actual investment going on with the money forcefully taken from you (treasury bonds grows government, not economic productivity). That it relies on force, more and more people paying into it, etc. So I'll see your 'fool.com' article and raise it with one from Forbes...https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardsalsman/2011/09/27/social-security-is-much-worse-than-a-ponzi-scheme/
Clark Griswold Posted June 29, 2015 Posted June 29, 2015 (edited) Dude, your article emphasized all my points for me--that there is no actual investment going on with the money forcefully taken from you (treasury bonds grows government, not economic productivity). That it relies on force, more and more people paying into it, etc. So I'll see your 'fool.com' article and raise it with one from Forbes...https://www.forbes.com/sites/richardsalsman/2011/09/27/social-security-is-much-worse-than-a-ponzi-scheme/ Good article and I completely agree with the sentiment that it is implicit debt and therefore converting it explicit debt is a viable option (gov acting as an escrow agent), also there is no argument from me that the surplus that is collected yearly and raided by Congress for general purpose funding is totally immoral but I will agree to disagree that it is a scheme. It's a legacy program desperately in need of reform and honesty, that it is not meant to be a large part of anyone's retirement portfolio (assuming a middle class and above salary during their working lifetime and hence the expected saving/investment) - it should be means tested safety net only open to those who have paid in, not allowed to generate or keep large surpluses, essentially it should be zero after paying benefits out every year and return those surpasses to those who have paid in Edited June 29, 2015 by Clark Griswold
JS Posted June 30, 2015 Posted June 30, 2015 It is sad that the democratic republic, democracy electing representatives Like you said - the US is not a democracy, nor are any of the Western European nations. It is the republic here that is failing, like all republics before it. 1
Clark Griswold Posted June 30, 2015 Posted June 30, 2015 Like you said - the US is not a democracy, nor are any of the Western European nations. It is the republic here that is failing, like all republics before it. https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2013/11/08/which-of-the-11-american-nations-do-you-live-in/ Maybe we'll organize as semi-autonomous regions, doubt it but the idea is out there.
SuperWSO Posted June 30, 2015 Posted June 30, 2015 That analysis is clearly flawed; Texas falls into four separate regions!
Clark Griswold Posted July 8, 2015 Posted July 8, 2015 (edited) Moral hazard or just getting the break that you got after a big screw up? The case for a German write off of a shit ton of Greek debt. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/08/business/economy/germanys-debt-history-echoed-in-greece.html?_r=0 Not convinced but cutting them a break may be the least bad move. Edit: grammar Edited July 8, 2015 by Clark Griswold
HeloDude Posted July 8, 2015 Author Posted July 8, 2015 Greece is in financial trouble not because of post-large war (like the progressive article compares), but rather due to irresponsible social spending and poor internal monetary policies. Very little will change in Greece as their Sunday vote showed that they want the socialism that they can't afford. Right now giving them more money is throwing good money after bad. Either way, this hurts the Euro, which is a good thing.
matmacwc Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 Guess we are shutting down, hope people have a rainy day fund. I found out the other day this is the 19th government shutdown, most of the presidents going back to Carter had them. I think amnesty is a bridge a bit to far for the electorate, even further if they knew the history and President Reagan's amnesty in the 80's and how the Democrats didn't follow through on their part of the bargain, they'll just do the same thing again.
BADFNZ Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 I've had a beer or two since, but didn't USAA still pay it's members their normal paycheck on payday when the last shutdown took place?
Warrior Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 I've had a beer or two since, but didn't USAA still pay it's members their normal paycheck on payday when the last shutdown took place?I remember discussions about that but I don’t remember if it happened or not. This time it’s shut down on the 20th. I’ll be surprised if it’s still shut down on the 30th (pay day).
Guest Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 I've had a beer or two since, but didn't USAA still pay it's members their normal paycheck on payday when the last shutdown took place?IIRC, it never actually came to that with the last shutdown. They funded military pay separately so as to avoid looking like the ass clowns they are. I do recall though, when we had a pending shutdown (maybe in 2011?), where DFAS jumped the gun and fûcked up everyone’s paychecks.
FUSEPLUG Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 We need to remember the true victims of this shutdown... (From JQP - first comment FTW)
saber4p Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 Anyone know/have experience on how this will effect the defense contractors hiring process? Northrop, Lockheed, Jacobs, etc?
nsplayr Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 There was already a bill proposed late last night to fund mil pay separately from the rest of the shutdown and also halt Congressional pay until the government reopens. Hopefully something like this passes, or better yet, the shutdown ends quickly early next week. https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/369829-trump-state-dems-introduce-bill-to-withhold-lawmaker-pay-during-shutdown
SCRIMP Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 Will this cancel all currently planned/scheduled TDYs? I have orders for a trip on 31 Jan.
viper154 Posted January 20, 2018 Posted January 20, 2018 Anyone have any idea about the rotator back to the states? Assuming it would still be flying being dirrectly related to “war effort”
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