China creates new air defense zone in East China Sea

[PasserOGas]

Thoughts?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-creates-new-air-defense-zone-in-east-china-sea-amid-dispute-with-japan/2013/11/23/c415f1a8-5416-11e3-9ee6-2580086d8254_story.html

[contraildash]

That's a bit of airspace....

[Fly]

The Japanese should create an ADIZ too.

[HU&W]

DOS Statement on the US position.

Press Statement

John Kerry
Secretary of State

Washington, DC

November 23, 2013Share on

The United States is deeply concerned about China's announcement that they've established an "East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone." This unilateral action constitutes an attempt to change the status quo in the East China Sea. Escalatory action will only increase tensions in the region and create risks of an incident.

Freedom of overflight and other internationally lawful uses of sea and airspace are essential to prosperity, stability, and security in the Pacific. We don't support efforts by any State to apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter its national airspace. The United States does not apply its ADIZ procedures to foreign aircraft not intending to enter U.S. national airspace. We urge China not to implement its threat to take action against aircraft that do not identify themselves or obey orders from Beijing.

We have urged China to exercise caution and restraint, and we are consulting with Japan and other affected parties, throughout the region. We remain steadfastly committed to our allies and partners, and hope to see a more collaborative and less confrontational future in the Pacific.

[Skitzo]

First crew to state due regard in the zone deserves a round

[Kilgore Trout]

DOS Statement on the US position.

Maybe that will help Washington decide whether or not we need to be in Afghanistan until 2024 or not.

[ClearedHot]

Right out of a Clancy novel...I've been banging the drum for years, right now it is the Japanese, but we will fight China...the two biggest kids on the block, at some point they are gonna scrap.

[Clark Griswold]

Posted in another thread but relevant here also, Chinese Sharp Sword UAV makes first flight

Drumbeat keeps going...

From a good article referenced here on how and why China launches wars occasionally

"Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai explained that the 1962 war was meant to “teach India a lesson.” Paramount leader Deng Xiaoping used the same formulation in 1979 when he became the first Chinese Communist leader to visit Washington and told America’s then-president Jimmy Carter that “Vietnam must be taught a lesson, like India.”

I guess Japan is going to be "taught a lesson"

Edited November 24, 2013 by Clark Griswold

[Prozac]

Right out of a Clancy novel...I've been banging the drum for years, right now it is the Japanese, but we will fight China...the two biggest kids on the block, at some point they are gonna scrap.

Then who will build our X Boxes?

[Marco]

XBox is hecho en Mexico.

Apple factory gets bombed...and Samsung's for everyone!

Edited November 24, 2013 by Marco

[kchsload]

China has no interest in fighting a war with the US or the West but the have every incentive to create the illusion,mainly pandering to their domestic audiences, that they are willing and able to fight that war.

[Lawman]

China has no interest in fighting a war with the US or the West but the have every incentive to create the illusion,mainly pandering to their domestic audiences, that they are willing and able to fight that war.

I don't think Iraq had any interest in fighting a war over Kuwait, but damned if they didn't do it.

China wants to take over as the primary regional power in heir back yard, they don't want to have to fight the US or Japan to do it. They are playing the role of bully hoping that nobody on the table will call them on it, but it's not like they are holding a weak hand here. We want to maintain as the Worlds first power which means saying dominant in every region, but we don't want to fight wars to do it either. If we back down though because we are to weary they will push us out of he Pacific or at least make the West Pacific a Chinese Lake.... If neither side is willing to back down on this there will be a fight about it. War is a continuation of politics through other means... This is a perfect example of the opening stages of that scenario.

[matmacwc]

[Masshole]

Just asserting their strength in immediate territories. They get more attention for their naval 'area denial' tech development.

[waveshaper]

If China's intentions are to eventually completely dominate East/Southeast Asia and the West Pac both economically and militarily they will require a very large modern Navy, Air Force, and expeditionary ground forces (by sea/air). These type forces would have to be 10 fold larger and/or more capable then they are today to completely control that entire region. I personally do not believe that China is trying to completely dominate the region, at this time, but of course things change and strategic plan evolve.

I would not be surprised that if China ever decides to go this route (they are already well on their way) that they would use Japan as a model and try to somewhat emulate Imperial Japan's rapid industrialization, modern militarization, and empire expansionism (late 1860's to WW2). Just a FEW of Imperial Japan's lessons taught/early warnings leading up to WW2.

1894 - 1941

- First Sino- Japanese War.

- Russo-Japanese War.

- Annexation of Korea.

- WW1 (they were on our side in this one).

- Siberian Intervention.

- Manchuria Expansionism.

- Second Sino-Japanese War.

- WW2.

[kchsload]

I don't think Iraq had any interest in fighting a war over Kuwait, but damned if they didn't do it.

China wants to take over as the primary regional power in heir back yard, they don't want to have to fight the US or Japan to do it. They are playing the role of bully hoping that nobody on the table will call them on it, but it's not like they are holding a weak hand here. We want to maintain as the Worlds first power which means saying dominant in every region, but we don't want to fight wars to do it either. If we back down though because we are to weary they will push us out of he Pacific or at least make the West Pacific a Chinese Lake.... If neither side is willing to back down on this there will be a fight about it. War is a continuation of politics through other means... This is a perfect example of the opening stages of that scenario.

Iraq v Kuwait has little to do with the US and China. Just one example, the PLA logistical capabilities are waaay behind their current military developments and are limited in their ability to project force, and even less able sustain it.

Wars are fought because nations believe they have something to gain from it. China has nothing to gain and everything to loose in a war with the US/West. If Beijing were to lose that war, the CCP would risk looking illegitimate and unable to contain a revolution. Whats more, we are both in each other's top two import/export partners, that alone will prevent any major conflict as neither side can afford to lose what they have with the other. China does desire to influence her own region, and who here can blame her? She has major interests along her peripherals (this is not to defend Beijing, the ambitious and illegitimate claims over the S China sea or this new air defense region among others) and any other country in the world would be doing the exact same thing insofar as ensuring influence in their respective region. At this point China is her own worst enemy on the international stage, neighboring nations that once aligned with Beijing and received large amounts of Chinese investment as a result are becoming increasingly worried and looking towards the US as a counterweight to Chinese influence, (Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia etc.) and consequently ensuring a US presence in the region; just look at the recent typhoon response in the Philippines. I've sat in on meetings with top Chinese academics and former gov't officials, they hate the fact that we're in the way we are. I've seen them jump up and down and scream about US ops in the region and recite a mile long list of complaints, (surveillance flights 70 miles off the Chinese coast is a favorite topic to bring up). but we're not leaving the pacific. We provide too much to the region, i.e.,ensuring security of sea lanes that the Chinese actively use and anti-piracy and terrorism ops. While China is now in the beginning stages of conducting these routine missions themselves, many of them are being jointly conducted with the US and Western friendly allies.

China is focused on China at this moment. I honestly believe that this latest move was largely made so Beijing and CCTV can and point and say to the populace (again) "look how strong we are, they fear us." Then, Mr. Chen, after watching that night's new, is going to go talk it over with his buddies at tomorrow's Mahjong game and all nod in agreement that China and the CCP is indeed strong.

Edited November 25, 2013 by kchsload

[BADFNZ]

Lose.

[Day Man]

Wars are fought because politicians believe they have something to gain from it.

FTFY

[ClearedHot]

Load you have a very myopic view of China and their desires.

I did not say China wants a war with the west, but her moves are certainly rolling that direction. Is China focused on China, yes, with such single-mindedness that on the current path it will lead to a major conflict. There are so many other factors in play, if you took a strategic look and mixed in some history, you might come to a different conclusion.

First, China is facing a real economic crisis...largely ignored in the west. China has grown to the worlds second largest economy (many predictions on when it will exceed that of the U.S.), this government controlled economy coupled with a Chinese cultural predisposition to save have created the largest real estate bubble in history. You think the U.S. housing market meltdown was bad, just watch what may happen in China. The government has used near double digit growth as a weapon against the U.S. and internally against civil disobedience. It is easy to lose some of your rights when you have tons of cash in your pocket, but it is unsustainable and as the shroud slowly comes back people will be surprised just how fragile the situation is. In order to maintain that growth the government has allowed and encouraged developers to build entire cities...where no one lives. Skyscrapers...massive numbers of apartments, townhouses, and homes without a single resident. All in the name of continuing construction growth. Chinese citizens looking for places to invest their new-found wealth have bought these investments in large quantities. If you want to see just a peek of the situation watch the 60 minutes story (https://www.cbsnews.com/videos/chinas-real-estate-bubble/).

Second, The country has a certified shortage of women. Thanks to social policy, in China, millions of baby girls were simply never born. While the one child policy is just now beginning to fade, the effects are readily apparent, 122 boys are born for every 100 girls. That simple fact translates into a lot of lonely, angry young men and has been kept in check only by a growing economy. If the bubble pops and unemployment spikes...look out, China will have 35 million extra bored men (roughly the population of Canada), with nothing better to do. In the past when this has happened history has corrected the situation in one of two ways...war or plague. Unless a new Asian Bird Flu wipes our a couple hundred thousand young men, china will have a real social situation on its hands. and one of the more popular ways to retain power in times like these it to focus attention outside.

Third, one of China's primary drivers for flexing her muscle is to secure resources and energy. The situation would be much worse but as of last month, in the aggregate the U.S. is now self-sufficient with regard to oil production. China is desperately trying to secure energy and the routes that import that energy which is why India is such a threat. While making great friends in the Middle East China stills has to drive all that oil right past India on the way home. Additionally, Japan has always been an energy importer and thus a huge competitor to China in that regard. Mix in a territorial dispute and you have some great conditions for a fight...a fight the U.S. is bound by treaty to weigh in on Japan's side.

The current actions by China represent the single most provocative actions taken in decades and in my humble opinion, the show is just beginning.

Edited November 25, 2013 by ClearedHot

[Gravedigger]

There are two types of people in this world; those that believe a war with China is on the horizon, and those that are younger than 45. Obviously, it is impossible to predict the future of international relations, but the idea of a war between our nations is preposterous in my opinion. I think our economies are too interdependent for that to ever happen and more importantly mutually assured destruction sucks for everyone. All of USSTRATCOM would disagree with that sentiment, but the vast majority of people that have lived/worked/traveled in China realize that everything they do is posturing. They are constantly playing chess with the rest of the world and their own population. Make a move, see how people react. Could that lead to very stern talks and warnings in the future? Definitely. War? Not in my opinion. During the height of the Cold War, when confronted with apparent aggression from our staunchest communist foe, nobody fired a shot. Now that we are all eating Happy Meals and playing on our iPhones, war between superpowers seems a bit like a modern doctor recommending blood-letting for cancer treatment. The counter-argument says this is myopic; we say that argument is archaic. Who will end up being correct honestly doesn't matter. We will either all die, or we won't.

[Ram]

During the height of the Cold War, when confronted with apparent aggression from our staunchest communist foe, nobody fired a shot.

Hm...

I think that the 240,000+ Korean/Vietnam war dead/wounded would disagree with you.

Of course, we'd NEVER get involved in a series of proxy wars in Asia, right? That's never happened before.

[kchsload]

Load you have a very myopic view of China and their desires.

I did not say China wants a war with the west, but her moves are certainly rolling that direction. Is China focused on China, yes, with such single-mindedness that on the current path it will lead to a major conflict. There are so many other factors in play, if you took a strategic look and mixed in some history, you might come to a different conclusion.

Words....

That's your opinion, I respect it and know many who share the same views. If I would have never lived, studied and worked in the country (I have no idea what your experience is with China), I too may have those same views, but I don't. Even though it looks very irrational from the outside, and especially from the Western point of view, the actions of Beijing and their leaders are not stupid but are in fact very rational and carefully thought out. Simply put, I believe you're using a Western prism to look at Chinese foreign policy and actions and consequently getting a distorted view.

As for the three issues you mentioned, yes you're right, they exist, but the Chinese exemption is a multifaceted one and seemingly able to avoid disasters that would normally destroy the economies and societies of normal nations. Will this trend continue, who knows? But with a gradually slowing economy Beijing will become more susceptible to the normal rules of development and politics. There are measures and actions being put into place to mitigate the housing bubble, it has after all been predicted to burst 3-4 years ago. But again, that damn Chinese caveat has exempted China for the time being.

As for importing oil, China is working on an admittedly impressive pipeline to move African and Mid East oil. It begins in a Myanmar port and runs through the country directly into Yunnan in southern China. This will allow them to skip the whole shipping oil through the Strait of Malacca thing and reducing the need for securing sea lanes and consequently the tension and competition for them.

[Gravedigger]

Hm...

I think that the 240,000+ Korean/Vietnam war dead/wounded would disagree with you.

Of course, we'd NEVER get involved in a series of proxy wars in Asia, right? That's never happened before.

That is precisely the point. Even with boots on the ground and people dying, we were über sensitive to not involving China or the Soviets, despite their direct contributions to our enemy. We lost American lives in both wars because we were afraid to take actions we thought would draw the Chinese into the fight. Now they have substantially more technology/firepower, we depend on each other for daily life, and Chairman Mao is fading into history...and we are going to go to war? No fuckin way.

[czecksikhs]

Third, one of China's primary drivers for flexing her muscle is to secure resources and energy. The situation would be much worse but as of last month, in the aggregate the U.S. is now self-sufficient with regard to oil production.

Wait, wut? The USA imports 6+ million barrels per day. Importing 1/3 of our daily oil needs hardly qualifies as self-sufficient.

[ClearedHot]

You seem to forget that China is run by people over 45.