China & Chinese Shenanigans

[Lawman]

Agreed. Also makes the Marines look pretty damn smart by pivoting away from tanks and looking to drastically restructure their force (pretty interesting topic if you aren’t tracking).

Not really…

For all the “it’s the death of Tanks” nonsense, there is nothing on the ground that can replicate or replace the Tank.

More to the point, just because you are watch the Russians ignore the most basic tactics and make it easy for the defender doesn’t mean it’s a reasonable assumption to say tanks can’t attack an ATGM equipped defender. And while I’m sure somebody will bring up Israel in Lebanon getting a company of Merk’s torn up, a more thorough examination of that battle shows it was not something you can apply as a universal or even normal outcome to the match up of forces.


Advanced ATGMs like Javelin didn’t do as much to make the tank go extinct as they allowed light/airborne/air assault infantry a capability to actually survive in the defense, which was something it didn’t organically possess before.


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[Danger41]

55 minutes ago, Lawman said:

Not really…

For all the “it’s the death of Tanks” nonsense, there is nothing on the ground that can replicate or replace the Tank.

More to the point, just because you are watch the Russians ignore the most basic tactics and make it easy for the defender doesn’t mean it’s a reasonable assumption to say tanks can’t attack an ATGM equipped defender. And while I’m sure somebody will bring up Israel in Lebanon getting a company of Merk’s torn up, a more thorough examination of that battle shows it was not something you can apply as a universal or even normal outcome to the match up of forces.


Advanced ATGMs like Javelin didn’t do as much to make the tank go extinct as they allowed light/airborne/air assault infantry a capability to actually survive in the defense, which was something it didn’t organically possess before.


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If we want to hijack this thread into the relevancy of the USMC and/or why they need heavy armor for their actual mission, I suggest we just start a new thread. Spoiler alert on my opinion is the Marines need to not be Army 2.0. 
 

Regardless, I completely agree with you that tanks can be very valuable even against an ATGM equipped enemy. You nailed it with how you use them is the key to success. Ball walking down the road in a bunch of tanks ain’t the way to do that.

[Clark Griswold]

Chaffing motors ain’t cool

Chinese Fighter Jet Challenges Australian Recon. Plane over South China Sea https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2022/06/05/chinese-fighter-jet-challenges-australian-plane-over-south-china-sea/


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[StoleIt]

1 hour ago, Clark Griswold said:

Chaffing motors ain’t cool

Chinese Fighter Jet Challenges Australian Recon. Plane over South China Sea https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2022/06/05/chinese-fighter-jet-challenges-australian-plane-over-south-china-sea/


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I guess they finally learned this is safer for their pilots than ramming...

But seriously, that is fucked up.

[Clark Griswold]

5 hours ago, StoleIt said:

But seriously, that is fucked up.

2

I hope the RAAF returns the favor in kind, super sonic pass over Chi com marine militia boat or other tit for tat measure

[ClearedHot]

Chinese Media is suggesting they should shoot down Pelosi's plane if she visits Taiwan. 

I wish her no harm and I hope she doesn't back down.  I wonder if they will send an escort?

 

 

[ClearedHot]

 

[StoleIt]

58 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Chinese Media is suggesting they should shoot down Pelosi's plane if she visits Taiwan. 

I wish her no harm and I hope she doesn't back down.  I wonder if they will send an escort?

 

 

IMO, at this point, if she doesn't go to Taiwan now (for literally any reason) it will be such a PR victory for China. It will give them confidence that they can dictate US political travel in their AOR.

[ClearedHot]

A lot of chat on the financial side the past few weeks about the economic crisis hitting China which has resulted in frozen bank accounts and some large protests (that were crushed brutally with violence).  Some of more alarmist pundits are predicting the CCP will lose control within the next two months.  Communist governments have a history of shifting focus to external "enemies" when things start to get bad and the situation with Nancy also escalated a lot of nationalistic fervor on social media.  Whatever the situation it is clear they are seriously prepping for a fight.  In the three images below taken this past November you can see their focus on countering our naval power.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[herkbum]

I have to fly thru the area multiple times this week and I’m not looking forward to it.


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[Prozac]

39 minutes ago, herkbum said:

I have to fly thru the area multiple times this week and I’m not looking forward to it.


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Same. On the bright side, if the CCP wants to mount an actual invasion, the massing of forces will take months and be very, very obvious. Cutting off Chinese oil imports will be as simple as parking a few warships in the Straight of Malacca (there are a few pipelines, but they won’t come close to supplying Chinese needs). I’ve read that their domestic reserves would allow for roughly 90 days of wartime ops. That’s how long Taiwan has to hold out. Even if the invasion were successful, the Chinese will be effectively blockaded indefinitely. Energy and, more importantly, food imports will be a thing of the past and millions of Chinese citizens will starve or freeze (or both). Even if they could get access to some imports, their export industry will be toast and they won’t have money to pay for food. The carrier killer missiles might make life difficult within a couple hundred miles of Formosa but they won’t have much effect down by Singapore or out in the Indian Ocean or the Persian Gulf. The Chinese lack the reach to protect their supply lines. If we wanted to, we could turn China into North Korea in a matter of months and there’s fuck all they could do about it. Xi and the gang know this. There won’t be an intentional conflict any time soon. Unintentional? Maybe a bigger threat. Hope the air defense guys on their boats don’t have itchy trigger fingers like the Russians. 

[FLEA]

20 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Same. On the bright side, if the CCP wants to mount an actual invasion, the massing of forces will take months and be very, very obvious. Cutting off Chinese oil imports will be as simple as parking a few warships in the Straight of Malacca (there are a few pipelines, but they won’t come close to supplying Chinese needs). I’ve read that their domestic reserves would allow for roughly 90 days of wartime ops. That’s how long Taiwan has to hold out. Even if the invasion were successful, the Chinese will be effectively blockaded indefinitely. Energy and, more importantly, food imports will be a thing of the past and millions of Chinese citizens will starve or freeze (or both). Even if they could get access to some imports, their export industry will be toast and they won’t have money to pay for food. The carrier killer missiles might make life difficult within a couple hundred miles of Formosa but they won’t have much effect down by Singapore or out in the Indian Ocean or the Persian Gulf. The Chinese lack the reach to protect their supply lines. If we wanted to, we could turn China into North Korea in a matter of months and there’s fuck all they could do about it. Xi and the gang know this. There won’t be an intentional conflict any time soon. Unintentional? Maybe a bigger threat. Hope the air defense guys on their boats don’t have itchy trigger fingers like the Russians. 

Can you clarify on food? China is the world's largest grain producer. I have a hard time believing they would face a starvation scenario but I might not be seeing something. 

That said I agree with your overall premise that a Military invasion of Taiwan had more chances to fill against China than it does for it to succeed and that's exactly why they haven't done it yet. 

Edited August 6, 2022 by FLEA

[Prozac]

3 hours ago, FLEA said:

Can you clarify on food? China is the world's largest grain producer. I have a hard time believing they would face a starvation scenario but I might not be seeing something. 

That said I agree with your overall premise that a Military invasion of Taiwan had more chances to fill against China than it does for it to succeed and that's exactly why they haven't done it yet. 

Decent article discussing Chinese food security:
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-food-security/

TLDR: Chinese consumption has outstripped supply. They have plans to mitigate but if you’ve read Zeihan’s latest book, he brings up the very good point that mechanized agriculture in China will go away without energy. They would have to literally de-industrialize and resort to subsistence farming in order to feed themselves. No matter what, any potential conflict would be massively de-stabilizing for the CCP and I just can’t see an upside to starting a fight for them. That said, I would’ve thought the same thing about Russia/Ukraine six months ago, so never say never I guess. 
 

 

[Danger41]

Big Peter Zeihan fan, as well. For those interested in some of the geopolitics around big nations, give him a listen/read. Fascinating stuff.

[tac airlifter]

https://andmagazine.substack.com/p/the-chinese-blockade-of-taiwan-may?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
 

TLDR: author postulates current Chinese military maneuvers represent the start of a blockade (I don’t agree, just posting for discussion).  Interesting tactic, would force US to appear the aggressor or let Taiwan starve.  I don’t think we would do a damn thing.

[HeloDude]

11 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

A lot of chat on the financial side the past few weeks about the economic crisis hitting China which has resulted in frozen bank accounts and some large protests (that were crushed brutally with violence).  Some of more alarmist pundits are predicting the CCP will lose control within the next two months.  Communist governments have a history of shifting focus to external "enemies" when things start to get bad and the situation with Nancy also escalated a lot of nationalistic fervor on social media.  Whatever the situation it is clear they are seriously prepping for a fight.  In the three images below taken this past November you can see their focus on countering our naval power.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Interesting—thanks for sharing.

My thoughts are that the CCP isn’t going anywhere anytime soon (meaning the next 5-10 years at least).  As for the tensions with Taiwan, the country has always been China’s for the taking…just depends on what resources they’re willing to expend and what backlash from the international community they’re willing to receive.  But let’s not pretend that we’re willing to go to war with China over Taiwan, nor should we.  As for the economic part, do we really want to stop trading with our largest trade partner (3rd for our exports going there, 1st for their imports coming here)?  Yeah, let’s further destroy our economy.

I do think it’s hilarious that the left tells us that climate change is our greatest national threat and yet we’re not tough at all on China to reduce their emissions.

[busdriver]

1 hour ago, HeloDude said:

As for the economic part, do we really want to stop trading with our largest trade partner (3rd for our exports going there, 1st for their imports coming here)?  Yeah, let’s further destroy our economy.

This may become less of a relevant point in the not too distant future.  The CCP keeps locking down due to COVID scares, and manufacturers are starting to move out of China as a result.  Once the plants are gone, there isn't any reason to go back.  

[Majestik Møøse]

China only has 50x J-20s and a bunch of experimental missiles, let’s get this over with now before they build more!

[waveshaper]

Something else to watch in another part of the Indo-Pacific AO in October. I wouldn't be surprised if the PRC escalates the situation along this contentious border region - before/during/after this joint US/India exercise?

US to take part in military exercise near India's disputed border with China - CNN

Exercise "Yudh Abhyas" -- or "War Practice".

The United States is to take part in a joint military exercise with India less than 100 kilometers (62 miles) from the South Asian country's disputed border with China.

The military drills will be held in mid-October at an altitude of 10,000 feet in Auli in the Indian state of Uttarakhand and will focus on high-altitude warfare training, according to a senior Indian Army officer with knowledge of the matter.

Auli is about 95 kilometers from the Line of Actual Control (LAC), an inhospitable piece of land where the disputed border between India and China is roughly demarcated.

Relations between India and China have been strained since a bloody clash between their soldiers in the Himalayas in June 2020 left at least 20 Indian troops and four Chinese soldiers dead.

 

Also, this event occurred last year in the same location of the upcoming joint exercise = Indian State of Uttarakhand.

 

 

 

[HeloDude]

15 hours ago, busdriver said:

This may become less of a relevant point in the not too distant future.  The CCP keeps locking down due to COVID scares, and manufacturers are starting to move out of China as a result.  Once the plants are gone, there isn't any reason to go back.  

Not going to happen anytime soon…businesses are afraid to even call Taiwan a country for fear that they’ll upset the CCP and in turn could hurt their sales.  Here’s one of the latest:

“Mars Wrigley apologizes to China over Snickers ad that called Taiwan a country”

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/mars-wrigley-apologizes-china-snickers-ad-called-taiwan-country.amp

[Prozac]

1 hour ago, HeloDude said:

Not going to happen anytime soon…businesses are afraid to even call Taiwan a country for fear that they’ll upset the CCP and in turn could hurt their sales.  Here’s one of the latest:

“Mars Wrigley apologizes to China over Snickers ad that called Taiwan a country”

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/mars-wrigley-apologizes-china-snickers-ad-called-taiwan-country.amp

While that kind of thing makes for good copy and it IS certainly frustrating to see western businesses kowtow to the CCP, I wouldn’t be so sure that the landscape isn’t shifting. Anecdotally, at my cargo operation we are seeing significant growth in places like Vietnam and India, while mainland Chinese ops have been continually disrupted and are shrinking. I believe FedEx is seeing a similar shift. Expats are leaving places like Shanghai and Hong Kong in droves, never to return, and many multinational corporations are following suit, moving regional headquarters to places like Singapore. The Chinese are making it very clear that they are no longer business friendly & while nothing happens overnight, I would expect those trends to continue & possibly accelerate depending on how entrenched the CCP continues to be with restrictions and how fast the Chinese economy contracts. 

[pawnman]

2 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Not going to happen anytime soon…businesses are afraid to even call Taiwan a country for fear that they’ll upset the CCP and in turn could hurt their sales.  Here’s one of the latest:

“Mars Wrigley apologizes to China over Snickers ad that called Taiwan a country”

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/mars-wrigley-apologizes-china-snickers-ad-called-taiwan-country.amp

Our economy is deeply enmeshed with China's, no doubt. The point is that covid, and CCP policies, are convincing US businesses that it's less and less profitable to do business there.

No one thinks that the two will be severed overnight. Rather, that we should be heartened by the gradual erosion of China's market power.

[pawnman]

19 hours ago, tac airlifter said:

https://andmagazine.substack.com/p/the-chinese-blockade-of-taiwan-may?s=r&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
 

TLDR: author postulates current Chinese military maneuvers represent the start of a blockade (I don’t agree, just posting for discussion).  Interesting tactic, would force US to appear the aggressor or let Taiwan starve.  I don’t think we would do a damn thing.

Berlin Airlift II?

[HeloDude]

47 minutes ago, Prozac said:

While that kind of thing makes for good copy and it IS certainly frustrating to see western businesses kowtow to the CCP, I wouldn’t be so sure that the landscape isn’t shifting.

“Make for a good copy”?…the one I just shared is not a one off.  This is seen across many businesses, the entertainment industry, the sports industry, the White House having to correct (or “clarify”) what the President says regarding Taiwan…on and on.

While trade is being expanded to other countries compared to 10-20 years ago, that doesn’t mean that many interests in the US are changing their policies of not wanting to upset the CCP…I would actually argue that going above and beyond to ensure the CCP is not upset is overall increasing compared to 20 years ago.  And it’s not “frustrating”, rather it just shows pure hypocrisy of those who subscribe to it.  And it also shows that in the end…it’s all about $$$ not “human rights”, “women’s rights”, shall I keep going?

 

[Biff_T]

3 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Not going to happen anytime soon…businesses are afraid to even call Taiwan a country for fear that they’ll upset the CCP and in turn could hurt their sales.  Here’s one of the latest:

“Mars Wrigley apologizes to China over Snickers ad that called Taiwan a country”

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/mars-wrigley-apologizes-china-snickers-ad-called-taiwan-country.amp

I can't believe they got Snickers as well.  I never thought I'd see the day when I'd have to boycott Snickers along with the NBA.  Thet have lost their minds.  I say we send LeBron and John Cena in to negotiate with Xi.  A huge chunk of our population deserves to live in communist China.  I hope Snickers doesn't end up in a concentration camp.  

Edited August 7, 2022 by Biff_T
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