China & Chinese Shenanigans

[FLEA]

It isn't just COVID though. Momentum has been turning from Chinese manufacturing for years. Especially in the tech sector where companies like Apple began realizing that their IP was being handed to Chinese competitors by the CCP. 

The problem is the sunk cost fallacy. Many of these companies already built significant infrastructure in China. They need a business case to abandon it. COVID was a good motivator for that but it's not enough. 

The biggest hope we have though was the corporate response to the invasion of Ukraine. Noone expected the oil industry of all people, or several other large corporations like McDonalds, to take a moral stand and willfully leave Russia without sanctions requiring them to do so. 

Hence, we need to keep putting pressure out there. Because businesses do want out of China. But they need enough reason to do so. 

[tac airlifter]

1 hour ago, pawnman said:

Berlin Airlift II?

Not possible for energy/oil/gas on the volume required to sustain their population.  
But if we break a blockade with Airlift, I assume we could break it with naval power.

certainly an interesting tactical issue.

[uhhello]

17 minutes ago, tac airlifter said:

Not possible for energy/oil/gas on the volume required to sustain their population.  
But if we break a blockade with Airlift, I assume we could break it with naval power.

certainly an interesting tactical issue.

Wouldn't want to be the first C-17 in.....

[busdriver]

4 hours ago, HeloDude said:

While trade is being expanded to other countries compared to 10-20 years ago, that doesn’t mean that many interests in the US are changing their policies of not wanting to upset the CCP…

China is still a huge market.  And as such still wields a lot of power, and will for as long as their population is buying a lot of stuff.  But the manufacturing base is leaving, their population demographics are very screwed up, and their internal monetary policy is ridiculous.

My point is our economies look to potentially be at the start of an un-meshing.  Which also means the CCP is backed into a corner.

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, busdriver said:

China is still a huge market.  And as such still wields a lot of power, and will for as long as their population is buying a lot of stuff.  But the manufacturing base is leaving, their population demographics are very screwed up, and their internal monetary policy is ridiculous.

My point is our economies look to potentially be at the start of an un-meshing.  Which also means the CCP is backed into a corner.

It an interesting topic for sure.  What’s your proposed timeline before we start seeing something substantial different than the status quo…ie, the CCP makes radical changes (or is overthrown?), China invades Taiwan, their economy goes into a depression, etc?  

[FourFans]

1 hour ago, HeloDude said:

It an interesting topic for sure.  What’s your proposed timeline before we start seeing something substantial different than the status quo…ie, the CCP makes radical changes (or is overthrown?), China invades Taiwan, their economy goes into a depression, etc?  

Months, not years.

[HeloDude]

3 minutes ago, FourFans130 said:

Months, not years.

Really?  Care to guess what it will be?

Damn near anything is possible, but I just don’t see it happening, at least definitely not that soon.  That all being said, if it did happen it would make for one interesting year!

[Biff_T]

I'm just pissed that they didn't start this shit 20 years ago.  I would have loved/preferred SEA vs SWA.   My granpa got Europe.  We got the smelly part of the planet.  

I'm such a badass now that it's not my ass in the seat anymore.  

If anything were to happen, it'd suck, but I have faith in our men in women doing the fighting.  

I wish I could join them.

 

Man tears.  

Where's the BX?

Sir, You're holding up the line and it's 0700 Monday morning.  

Where's the BX?

 

 

 

Edited August 8, 2022 by Biff_T
Not Exec x2

[busdriver]

Long term political viability of the current version of China I think it largely depends on what their actual demographics are.  All we really have are lies and analyst estimates.  I'd venture we won't recognize that they've become a paper tiger for about ten years.  So maybe 20 years (10+10)? 

I think there's a real chance they try to do something with Taiwan.  They changed the 2 child policy to 3 children, so they have to see the crash coming.

[Zero]

I highly recommend this book to get an idea of what China has been doing for the last 23 years: 

unrestricted.pdf (oodaloop.com)

Unrestricted Warfare, written by two Chinese Colonels back in 1999.  I call this a "no respect bunt."  After coaching youth baseball and softball for the last 10 years, I see two scenarios where teams bunt-- the classic move the runner into scoring position by sacrificing your batter, or the "no respect bunt."  In other words, I know you can't defend this, so I'm going to keep doing it and putting my runners on.  These two Colonels believe that it doesn't matter if they lay out their strategy-- we can't defend against it.  

The kicker is the date that this was published... realize that they've been executing this gameplan for two decades.  "I'm going to TELL you that I'm going to bunt... and you still won't / cant stop it."  

Whether you agree with it or not, it's a very interesting read-- elements of Sun Tzu's "know your enemy..."  They've done their homework on us for sure, and I would argue that they know us far better than we admit to knowing ourselves.  

For me, the most eye-opening part of this book is that they appear to have taken a strategy from our Cold War playbook, and I'm honestly afraid that we're unwittingly playing right into their hands-- spending ourselves into irrelevancy.  They discuss the dependency on technology extensively, and that's coming from a late-90s perspective when we were still discussing Desert Storm as the game-changer of warfare.  

The argument can be made that one of the tactics we successfully employed in the Cold War was forcing the Soviet Union to collapse under the weight of its attempt to keep up with us militarily and economically.  Trying to keep up with us militarily ultimately collapsed them because their economy could not keep pace with our ability to spend.  The opposite perspective can come into play there as well in that we saw a perceived (or actual) advance in their capability, and we were able to out-produce them, which seems to be a common play today. We see China produce a handful of "fifth gen" airplanes (let's call it 7% the size of our 5th Gen fleet), and our military industrial complex spins into high PRF and proclaims that the sky is falling and we've lost our edge, leading for new calls to "outspend" our adversaries.  That's not just the AF-- I've seen many articles detailing the "fact" that China has the largest navy in the world now.  But when you look at those numbers, you see that they only have 3 carriers, none of which are nuclear powered and must be refueled every six days.  I'm not discounting them outrightly, but I am contending that there's A LOT more than just numbers.  But it depends on what your agenda is with respect to how you interpret those numbers.  

There are hints in this publication that this is a deliberate strategy on the part of Chinese to get us to succumb to our own tendencies.  Remember that one of the tenants of Sun Tzu is to win without fighting.  They don't NEED to beat us militarily, but if they can get us to collapse under the weight of our own natural tendencies, that's perfect for them.  

The CCP sits on a precarious perch of their own, as has been discussed extensively in this thread.  Unrestricted Warfare shows that if they can engage across the spectrum, and you can take this battle plan and see that they've done just that for the last twenty years, then they can attain a significant advantage without competing toe to toe.  China also has the advantage of playing the long game-- that's culturally significant throughout history.  We update our approach every four years, and you can make the argument that we have a difficult time of seeing past the next election cycle, be that one or two years depending on the level of office.  

 

 

 

[ClearedHot]

Chinese Su-35 Fighters Prove Their Mettle; Blind The Radar Of Taiwanese F-16 Pilots During Encounter – Reports

[Lord Ratner]

On 8/7/2022 at 9:23 AM, HeloDude said:

Not going to happen anytime soon…businesses are afraid to even call Taiwan a country for fear that they’ll upset the CCP and in turn could hurt their sales.  Here’s one of the latest:

“Mars Wrigley apologizes to China over Snickers ad that called Taiwan a country”

https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/mars-wrigley-apologizes-china-snickers-ad-called-taiwan-country.amp

Don't you worry, the second something happens and the sleeping giant is awoken, you can count on corporate America to dust off the American flags and change their profile pics to red white and blue. They are soulless money whores, not cowards or cosmopolitans. When the sanctions make their business model in China untenable, they'll suddenly be Made-In-America patriots.

[Lord Ratner]

On 8/9/2022 at 7:10 AM, Zero said:

I highly recommend this book to get an idea of what China has been doing for the last 23 years: 

unrestricted.pdf (oodaloop.com)

Unrestricted Warfare, written by two Chinese Colonels back in 1999.  I call this a "no respect bunt."  After coaching youth baseball and softball for the last 10 years, I see two scenarios where teams bunt-- the classic move the runner into scoring position by sacrificing your batter, or the "no respect bunt."  In other words, I know you can't defend this, so I'm going to keep doing it and putting my runners on.  These two Colonels believe that it doesn't matter if they lay out their strategy-- we can't defend against it.  

The kicker is the date that this was published... realize that they've been executing this gameplan for two decades.  "I'm going to TELL you that I'm going to bunt... and you still won't / cant stop it."  

Whether you agree with it or not, it's a very interesting read-- elements of Sun Tzu's "know your enemy..."  They've done their homework on us for sure, and I would argue that they know us far better than we admit to knowing ourselves.  

For me, the most eye-opening part of this book is that they appear to have taken a strategy from our Cold War playbook, and I'm honestly afraid that we're unwittingly playing right into their hands-- spending ourselves into irrelevancy.  They discuss the dependency on technology extensively, and that's coming from a late-90s perspective when we were still discussing Desert Storm as the game-changer of warfare.  

The argument can be made that one of the tactics we successfully employed in the Cold War was forcing the Soviet Union to collapse under the weight of its attempt to keep up with us militarily and economically.  Trying to keep up with us militarily ultimately collapsed them because their economy could not keep pace with our ability to spend.  The opposite perspective can come into play there as well in that we saw a perceived (or actual) advance in their capability, and we were able to out-produce them, which seems to be a common play today. We see China produce a handful of "fifth gen" airplanes (let's call it 7% the size of our 5th Gen fleet), and our military industrial complex spins into high PRF and proclaims that the sky is falling and we've lost our edge, leading for new calls to "outspend" our adversaries.  That's not just the AF-- I've seen many articles detailing the "fact" that China has the largest navy in the world now.  But when you look at those numbers, you see that they only have 3 carriers, none of which are nuclear powered and must be refueled every six days.  I'm not discounting them outrightly, but I am contending that there's A LOT more than just numbers.  But it depends on what your agenda is with respect to how you interpret those numbers.  

There are hints in this publication that this is a deliberate strategy on the part of Chinese to get us to succumb to our own tendencies.  Remember that one of the tenants of Sun Tzu is to win without fighting.  They don't NEED to beat us militarily, but if they can get us to collapse under the weight of our own natural tendencies, that's perfect for them.  

The CCP sits on a precarious perch of their own, as has been discussed extensively in this thread.  Unrestricted Warfare shows that if they can engage across the spectrum, and you can take this battle plan and see that they've done just that for the last twenty years, then they can attain a significant advantage without competing toe to toe.  China also has the advantage of playing the long game-- that's culturally significant throughout history.  We update our approach every four years, and you can make the argument that we have a difficult time of seeing past the next election cycle, be that one or two years depending on the level of office.  

 

 

 

The problem with all of this is that China is spending themselves into oblivion, and they have a much weaker foundation than we do. 

 

That may have been their plan 20 years ago, but the 20 years of horrifically inefficient spending (see the Chinese ghost cities) by a centralized government is catching up with them.

 

Don't get me wrong, our horribly inefficient spending is catching up with us as well, but the Chinese have it much worse.

 

I think the biggest threat is that when their house of cards starts to crumble before ours, they will resort to the only thing totalitarian regimes know to resort to.

 

It's going to be an interesting winter.

[SurelySerious]

The problem with all of this is that China is spending themselves into oblivion, and they have a much weaker foundation than we do. 
 
That may have been their plan 20 years ago, but the 20 years of horrifically inefficient spending (see the Chinese ghost cities) by a centralized government is catching up with them.
 
Don't get me wrong, our horribly inefficient spending is catching up with us as well, but the Chinese have it much worse.
 
I think the biggest threat is that when their house of cards starts to crumble before ours, they will resort to the only thing totalitarian regimes know to resort to.
 
It's going to be an interesting winter.

They’re definitely on the verge of some economic problems and unrest…they have some heavy handed crackdowns going on, and I’m sure they welcomed the Taiwan visit as a distraction to help solidify some of their home support.

[busdriver]

In April, four rural Chinese banks froze ~$6B in retail deposits.

A housing development bond crash just wiped out $90B.  Real estate is used as backing for financial assets, and the whole thing is propped up by massive debt.

Three state owned corporations (PetroChina Ltd, China Life Insurance Ltd and China Petroleum & Chemical Co) just de-listed from the NYSE over company audit concerns.

Somehow I doubt this will be the straw that breaks the camel's back, but the cracks are becoming very obvious.  (How's that for mixed metaphors?) 

[FLEA]

8 hours ago, busdriver said:

In April, four rural Chinese banks froze ~$6B in retail deposits.

A housing development bond crash just wiped out $90B.  Real estate is used as backing for financial assets, and the whole thing is propped up by massive debt.

Three state owned corporations (PetroChina Ltd, China Life Insurance Ltd and China Petroleum & Chemical Co) just de-listed from the NYSE over company audit concerns.

Somehow I doubt this will be the straw that breaks the camel's back, but the cracks are becoming very obvious.  (How's that for mixed metaphors?) 

Something something about the camel's crack.... Are we talking about the same thing.....

[uhhello]

Does the Taiwan populace want independence?  How hard are they willing to fight for it.  Lots of articles about dropping readiness potential for the demographics needed in a fight.  The govt of Taiwan seems all in but is the populace behind that govt?  Hard to tell with all the possible propaganda fuckery with China but who knows.   Hong Kong is a bit different case but it folded with nary a fight.  

Edited August 14, 2022 by uhhello

[TreeA10]

6 minutes ago, uhhello said:

Does the Taiwan populace want independence?  How hard are they willing to fight for it.  Lots of articles about dropping readiness potential for the demographics needed in a fight.  The govt of Taiwan seems all in but is the populace behind that govt?  Hard to tell with all the possible propaganda fuckery with China but who knows.   Hong Kong is a bit different case but it folded with nary a fight.  

I was flying Hong Kong trips when that all started. "Nary a fight" is not an accurate statement. There were some serious riots that got seriously quashed. They pulled up the sidewalks made with paver bricks and were throwing those bashing up a lot of police vehicles but eventually were overwhelmed by police/military response. 

[uhhello]

18 minutes ago, TreeA10 said:

I was flying Hong Kong trips when that all started. "Nary a fight" is not an accurate statement. There were some serious riots that got seriously quashed. They pulled up the sidewalks made with paver bricks and were throwing those bashing up a lot of police vehicles but eventually were overwhelmed by police/military response. 

I have/had close relatives in Hong Kong.  Obviously my statement was a bit of an understatement but the GIANT majority of the populace stayed indoors.  

 

Also, like I said, Hong Kong is a bit of a different beast as China was already in every level of Hong Kong life from all aspects of the govt and everyday life.  

Edited August 14, 2022 by uhhello

[SurelySerious]

I have/had close relatives in Hong Kong.  Obviously my statement was a bit of an understatement but the GIANT majority of the populace stayed indoors.  
 
Also, like I said, Hong Kong is a bit of a different beast as China was already in every level of Hong Kong life from all aspects of the govt and everyday life.  

In China’s new paper, they want to have the same conciliatory environment in Taiwan that allowed them to fold Hong Kong so quickly.

[Prozac]

9 minutes ago, SurelySerious said:

In China’s new paper, they want to have the same conciliatory environment in Taiwan that allowed them to fold Hong Kong so quickly.

Good luck with that. Hong Kong was handed to them, is connected to the mainland, and was never really self governing to begin with. Taiwan is an island, has a capable military, has governed itself for 70 plus years and has been a thriving democracy for a couple decades. The model the Chinese used in HK would only work with the express cooperation of the Taiwanese people and government and Xi’s aggression has all but assured that’s not going to happen anytime soon. Many of my Taiwanese acquaintances do believe there is only one China. A China that turns its back on the CCP and accepts Taiwanese style democracy and prosperity. 

[FLEA]

45 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Good luck with that. Hong Kong was handed to them, is connected to the mainland, and was never really self governing to begin with. Taiwan is an island, has a capable military, has governed itself for 70 plus years and has been a thriving democracy for a couple decades. The model the Chinese used in HK would only work with the express cooperation of the Taiwanese people and government and Xi’s aggression has all but assured that’s not going to happen anytime soon. Many of my Taiwanese acquaintances do believe there is only one China. A China that turns its back on the CCP and accepts Taiwanese style democracy and prosperity. 

That's the irony of the Taiwan situation. Both the government of Taiwan and PRC believe the exact same thing. That there is only one China and one legitimate government. Just a different opinion on who that different government is. 

 

[SurelySerious]

Good luck with that. Hong Kong was handed to them, is connected to the mainland, and was never really self governing to begin with. Taiwan is an island, has a capable military, has governed itself for 70 plus years and has been a thriving democracy for a couple decades. The model the Chinese used in HK would only work with the express cooperation of the Taiwanese people and government and Xi’s aggression has all but assured that’s not going to happen anytime soon. Many of my Taiwanese acquaintances do believe there is only one China. A China that turns its back on the CCP and accepts Taiwanese style democracy and prosperity. 

Definitely see that and the difficulty there, just summarizing in one sentence the new white paper. They also essentially said they would use force if they felt like it despite 16-19 pages of saying how peaceful the CPC is.

[FourFans]

4 hours ago, FLEA said:

Just a different opinion on who that different government is. 

ever so slightly

[ClearedHot]

Some interesting takes in this video, for the past few months this group has been saying the CCP is toast.  Interesting to note the financial crisis many have predicted for China has arrived as the real estate bubble is in the midst of popping.  If you know anything about China, real estate and fake GDP growth you will understand how disruptive this is.  Real estate accounts for 30% of GDP and 75% of personal wealth so there is a major storm happening, how it plays out and what the CCP does to fix/distract/remain in power is going to be UGLY.