China & Chinese Shenanigans

[Biff_T]

1 hour ago, HeloDude said:

We probably share very similar opinions on China.  I’m just of the opinion that we would ever get militarily involved with China, unless of course they physically attacked us, which is very doubtful.  As for those who are upset that China is becoming so powerful that they can push nearby countries around and thinking we can do something substantial to stop it…that ship has sailed.  We strengthened their economy (which has allowed them to grow militarily) in order to strengthen ours, and now we’re concerned.

I 100% agree with you right here.   

[ClearedHot]

7 hours ago, HeloDude said:

We probably share very similar opinions on China.  I’m just of the opinion that we would ever get militarily involved with China, unless of course they physically attacked us, which is very doubtful.  As for those who are upset that China is becoming so powerful that they can push nearby countries around and thinking we can do something substantial to stop it…that ship has sailed.  We strengthened their economy (which has allowed them to grow militarily) in order to strengthen ours, and now we’re concerned.

Have you look at their economy lately?  They have SERIOUS issues the are already causing a lot of internal turmoil and it will only get worse.  Yes we helped their economy grow but they tried to help themselves through artificial means to sustain that grown and adopted an economic model what was actually just not unsustainable.  Holding GDP growth north of 9% was a function of currency manipulation and artificially stimulated domestic demand (google "China Ghost Cities" or watch the 60 minute special on that topic below.  They are in a serious economic situation that will likely impact the whole world.  Their one child policy didn't help the situation and long held societal preference for male versus female heirs has led to an uncomfortable balance.  It is a long held worry that a couple hundred million angry and unemployed young men is difficult to control and the only way to maintain power is to focus them on an external threat.

The big question is do we view an attack on Taiwan as an attack on us (under your theory), or do we honor our treaty promise?  Bigger than that if they do decided to attack Taiwan (they already have) and they hit us at Guam kinetically and use Cyber on the homeland, how will we respond.

For me as a knuckle dragger I have a far simpler view shared by the great Lt Col Andrew Tanner who said "Two toughest kids on the block, I guess. Sooner or later, they're gonna fight."

 

 

[Biff_T]

28 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

🇺🇸

I can't give you an American flag as I've hit my limit to use that function for a few more hours (sts).   So, once again, I have to say "I Agree" with everything ClearedHot said. 

I'm also curious what HeloDude thinks about our relationship with Taiwan? (Not a dig)

I'm not convinced which direction he'd like us (US) to go if China happened to use their gun powder on Taiwan.   

Edited October 20, 2022 by Biff_T
I proofread after I post

[HeloDude]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

Have you look at their economy lately?  They have SERIOUS issues the are already causing a lot of internal turmoil and it will only get worse.  Yes we helped their economy grow but they tried to help themselves through artificial means to sustain that grown and adopted an economic model what was actually just not unsustainable.  Holding GDP growth north of 9% was a function of currency manipulation and artificially stimulated domestic demand (google "China Ghost Cities" or watch the 60 minute special on that topic below.  They are in a serious economic situation that will likely impact the whole world.  Their one child policy didn't help the situation and long held societal preference for male versus female heirs has led to an uncomfortable balance.  It is a long held worry that a couple hundred million angry and unemployed young men is difficult to control and the only way to maintain power is to focus them on an external threat.

 

Sure, but nothing that you said refuted my point in that they’re our largest trading partner (we’re their number importer, they’re our number one importer and our number 3 exporter) and that the one of the big reasons they were able to grow so strongly militarily over the last 20+ years was because of their economic growth, again largely fueled by our economic trade.  So if they were so much of a threat, we did a poor job mitigating that threat by growing their economy, and in turn, their military.  But sure, let’s make a big deal about a small amount of UK pilots training their pilots and say that’s the reason their military is stronger than it needs to be/should be.

As far as what happens to their economy in the near future, time will tell…God knows our economic outlook is not looking too great either, and according to Biden, Europe is in bad shape (and supposedly “we’re wrong as hell”).  And as for their negative economy affecting us, again, that’s what I’ve been saying—we’re so economically in bed with each other that it’s not even funny.  

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

The big question is do we view an attack on Taiwan as an attack on us (under your theory), or do we honor our treaty promise?  Bigger than that if they do decided to attack Taiwan (they already have) and they hit us at Guam kinetically and use Cyber on the homeland, how will we respond.

Ummm, not sure where I said I view an attack on Taiwan as an attack on the US?  Maybe I did?  If so, I’ll try and clarify—I do not want to go to war with China over Taiwan.  Nor do I think it’s the responsibility of the American taxpayer to fund such a war or sacrifice American lives either.  As for the treaty, well, it wouldn’t be the first time we broke an agreement/treaty.  Promising their security was bad policy then and it’s bad policy now.  If the left thinks our economy now is bad because of Russia, just think what would happen if we ceased trade to do a war with China.

You guys do know what I’m a libertarian, right? lol 

Edited October 21, 2022 by HeloDude

[ClearedHot]

12 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Ummm, not sure where I said I view an attack on Taiwan as an attack on the US?

Not saying you did, saying do we...as in the U.S. government, view it as an attack on the U.S.  What I am trying to say is what qualifies as an attack on "us"?  Reacquiring Taiwan requires a lot of moving pieces that will happen VERY quickly.  If they believe we will respond (our official policy was ambiguous until Uncle Joe said we would defend Taiwan), then do you think they wait to go all in?  The longer they wait the more risk they accept.  We have shooters in place under the water tonight, will they go after our subs at the start, will they target Guam at the start, will they go after space from the start, will they use cyber against our bases AND ALLIES forward at the start and will they use cyber against the U.S. home land?  Any one of those could be considered an attack on "us."

12 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Sure, but nothing that you said refuted my point in that they’re our largest trading partner (we’re their number importer, they’re our number one importer and our number 3 exporter) and that the one of the big reasons they were able to grow so strongly militarily over the last 20+ years was because of their economic growth, again largely fueled by our economic trade.  So if they were so much of a threat, we did a poor job mitigating that threat by growing their economy, and in turn, their military.  But sure, let’s make a big deal about a small amount of UK pilots training their pilots and say that’s the reason their military is stronger than it needs to be/should be.

Elections have consequences, Bill Clinton set the tone and had the chance to steer the ship, instead he let is run with the tide, even though he knew there was danger.  “One of the biggest question marks of the 21st century is the path China will take. Will China emerge as a partner — or an adversary?” (Bill Clinton May 2000).   It doesn't help that the Friedman's of the world came into vogue in U.S. power circles (I debated the guy once, he is an ARROGANT ASS).  Regardless, there is a HUGE difference between policies that balance U.S. economic development and folks outright sharing military tactics. 

12 hours ago, HeloDude said:

I do not want to go to war with China over Taiwan. 

Me either brother....me either.  I have been ringing the warning bell for a long time.  During both tours in the five sided funny farm I was a zealot for funding and preparation for China.  I actually have a picture of me and SECDEF Gates shaking hands on my wall, I wanted to punch him when we took the picture.  I understood his desire to fix the horrible issues we were having in Iraq, but he did it buy gutting the Air Force and at the expense of preparing for the fight with China, a fight that will take MANY more lives and treasure.  The picture hangs on my wall not as a prize but as a reminder that I failed to make more of a difference on that topic. 

12 hours ago, HeloDude said:

You guys do know what I’m a libertarian, right? lol 

We all have our flaws...

[HeloDude]

27 minutes ago, ClearedHot said:

Wisdom and perspective…regardless of whether or not I agree with every detail

Brother, I always (well, 99.9% of the time lol) appreciate your insight and info.

[Biff_T]

I would feel bad if we didn't help Taiwan (same way I feel with Ukraine) but I don't necessarily think it would work out for us too well if we responded to a Chinese attack on Taiwan with our military.   Dudes are gonna eat it. 

I hope China doesn't do it.  But hope doesn't mean anything.  

I'm tired of our dudes dieing in other countries as well.     

I'm still hoping for someone to find those WMDs in Iraq?

Anyways  I won't be flying for Red China.  Lol

Good discussion 

[FLEA]

4 hours ago, Biff_T said:

I can't give you an American flag as I've hit my limit to use that function for a few more hours (sts).   So, once again, I have to say "I Agree" with everything ClearedHot said. 

I'm also curious what HeloDude thinks about our relationship with Taiwan? (Not a dig)

I'm not convinced which direction he'd like us (US) to go if China happened to use their gun powder on Taiwan.   

I think we first need to address the elephant in the room which is WTF does baseops have a limit on how often I can wave my American flag emoji......gtfo my freedom! 

Edited October 21, 2022 by FLEA

[Lord Ratner]

The problem with ignoring a Chinese attempt to take over Taiwan is the same potential problem with ignoring a Russian takeover of Ukraine. Operating under the assumption that the hostilities will end at that point is dangerous. By the time you realize your own takeover was part of the plan, your adversary could be in a much more capable position.

 

I also concede that your adversary might end up in a much weaker position as well. Russia is a good example of that. Waiting for their position as the indisputable bad guy before dumping advanced weaponry and training on Ukraine has allowed us to maintain the high ground while systematically slaughtering the Russian military, without a single American life lost. However, I would be shocked if that was a premeditated plan. The West seems to bumble through all foreign interactions at this point.

 

What China does over the next few years is going to determine everything. As Cleared Hot showed, they have put themselves into an economic and demographic catastrophe. If it is even possible to fix that, it will be a delicate operation. Extending themselves by attacking Taiwan would probably not help. But they are better long-term thinkers than we, so who knows?

[O Face]

12 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

 During both tours in the five sided funny farm I was a zealot for funding and preparation for China.  I actually have a picture of me and SECDEF Gates shaking hands on my wall, I wanted to punch him when we took the picture.  I understood his desire to fix the horrible issues we were having in Iraq, but he did it buy gutting the Air Force and at the expense of preparing for the fight with China, a fight that will take MANY more lives and treasure.  The picture hangs on my wall not as a prize but as a reminder that I failed to make more of a difference on that topic. 

We all have our flaws...

Appreciate you trying Brother. Most of us have spent a career trying to avoid that place like the plague and instead just bitching about everything wrong - without doing a damn thing about it. Please don’t remind yourself too often.  I’m certain you made more impact than you know and certainly more than the rest of us did.  

Edited October 21, 2022 by O Face
Words

[Biff_T]

2 hours ago, O Face said:

Appreciate you trying Brother. Most of us have spent a career trying to avoid that place like the plague and instead just bitching about everything wrong - without doing a damn thing about it. Please don’t remind yourself too often.  I’m certain you made more impact than you know and certainly more than the rest of us did.  

I'm in the boat of bitching too much.  If I could have been more tactful, maybe I could made a difference instead of demoralizing the younger dudes at the bar with my bitterness.  I regret that. 

Leaders like ClearedHot did it right!  

China still sucks! lol

[CaptainMorgan]

We stupidly got ourselves into a situation where Taiwan has the lion’s share of semiconductor manufacturing. Allowing China to control that monopoly would be a disaster.


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[Prozac]

7 hours ago, Lord Ratner said:

However, I would be shocked if that was a premeditated plan. The West seems to bumble through all foreign interactions at this point.

You’re right that other countries seem to be more willing to (if not necessarily better or even good at) plan(ing) decades or even generations in to the future. What the West is good at, and what Americans excel at, is being able to roll with the punches and take advantage of opportunities or mistakes our adversaries make when they arise. China may have a long term plan, but their kind of top down structure makes them rigid, unable to think outside the box, and ultimately predictable. Liberal Democracy certainly seems, and is messy at times, but our more decentralized style has served us and the rest of the world well over the last century or so. I think China’s “rise” has been greatly exaggerated and Xi in particular has way overplayed his hand. He’ll be coronated for his third term here in a few days, but I’d put money on one of two things happening within the next decade: either the Chinese economy collapses, pulling the CCP down with it, or the party realizes they backed the wrong horse and Xi gets served up on a platter for the damage he’s done. 

[Prozac]

2 hours ago, CaptainMorgan said:

We stupidly got ourselves into a situation where Taiwan has the lion’s share of semiconductor manufacturing. Allowing China to control that monopoly would be a disaster.


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This. 

[Biff_T]

9 minutes ago, Prozac said:

This. 

This.  🇺🇸 lol

[pawnman]

Former RAF pilots who went to China to train its air force stole secrets for Britain

Well, that changes the conversation, doesn't it...?

[ThreeHoler]

Former RAF pilots who went to China to train its air force stole secrets for Britain
Well, that changes the conversation, doesn't it...?

ing traitor spies!

#amidoingitright?

[Biff_T]

3 hours ago, pawnman said:

Former RAF pilots who went to China to train its air force stole secrets for Britain

Well, that changes the conversation, doesn't it...?

I just finished getting my pitchfork ready.  I guess I'll put it back up CaptainMorgan's butt.  Lol

That's awesome!   I'm glad to see this work out for the good guys.   If those Brits stole secrets, received huge paychecks and banged a bunch of spinners while flying Chinese fighters then they are legends.  

I was quick to judge them but the Brits always know where the party's at.

Good job boys!

[Danger41]

But why would they steal secrets from a country that is our biggest international trading partner? We aren’t in conflict with them…/s

[HeloDude]

9 hours ago, Danger41 said:

But why would they steal secrets from a country that is our biggest international trading partner? We aren’t in conflict with them…/s

Not surprising when you know that the US government spies/steals info from its own citizens.

[SocialD]

17 hours ago, pawnman said:

Former RAF pilots who went to China to train its air force stole secrets for Britain

Well, that changes the conversation, doesn't it...?

 

 

Meh, if we're to believe the article, the dudes were doing the contract either way and were only agreed after the fact.  Not naive enough to realize that some may have been planning on this from the start and if so, great!  But I don't believe the Chinese started this program without the hopes of getting information (which they may very well have gotten...). But good on the pilots for taking them up on the offer, this goes back to my "unless they're teaching them to get shot in the face with an AMRAAM," comment.   

[uhhello]

47 minutes ago, SocialD said:

 

 

Meh, if we're to believe the article, the dudes were doing the contract either way and were only agreed after the fact.  Not naive enough to realize that some may have been planning on this from the start and if so, great!  But I don't believe the Chinese started this program without the hopes of getting information (which they may very well have gotten...). But good on the pilots for taking them up on the offer, this goes back to my "unless they're teaching them to get shot in the face with an AMRAAM," comment.   

Nailed it.  This is spin by the UK govt.  Naïve to think the Chinese treated these guys as anything but potential "double agents".  

[FLEA]

16 hours ago, Danger41 said:

But why would they steal secrets from a country that is our biggest international trading partner? We aren’t in conflict with them…/s

You know we spy on our allies as well right? There was a big hoopla in the 2000's because France found surveillance equipment in their embassy from the US. 

[SocialD]

1 hour ago, FLEA said:

You know we spy on our allies as well right? There was a big hoopla in the 2000's because France found surveillance equipment in their embassy from the US. 

 

 

Me thinks you missed the "/s" at the end of his post...   

Edited October 24, 2022 by SocialD

[FLEA]

https://www.military.com/daily-news/2022/10/23/retired-military-officials-are-finding-high-paying-jobs-saudi-government-and-can-make-7-figure.html/amp

 

Sort of on the topic.