China & Chinese Shenanigans

[Biff_T]

18 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

The Donger!

[Guest nsplayr]

Hey not for nothing, but make sure none of y'all download DeepSeek. It seems like it should go without saying, but do not willingly put CCP AI on your devices. I guess common sense is a superpower these days...

[Guest nsplayr]

31 minutes ago, Banzai said:

Legitimately, why? It’s open source and can be run without an internet connection.

I for one will never install CCP-controlled/aligned apps on my personal devices. No need to give a hostile rival nation valuable data for free.

If you wanna sandbox one in a totally offline environment for fun, I mean cool I guess, but that really limits the purpose of having an AI tool in the first place IMHO. I won't be doing that either.

The Navy has already banned it.

“We would like to bring to your attention a critical update regarding a new AI model called DeepSeek,” the email said. The memo said it’s “imperative” that team members do not use DeepSeek’s AI “for any work-related tasks or personal use.”

It said recipients (all Navy personnel) were to “refrain from downloading, installing, or using the DeepSeek model in any capacity.”

Edited January 30 by nsplayr

[TreeA10]

I did hear using Deepseek the user must agree to allow access to their computer data.  Can't verify that, however.

[Lord Ratner]

9 hours ago, Banzai said:

Legitimately, why? It’s open source and can be run without an internet connection.

It is not open source, it's open weight. 

[Lord Ratner]

7 hours ago, Banzai said:

I guess I just don’t buy the harm or your justification that being offline limits AI. It’s not like ChatGPT looks up its answers online. These are trained models that have weights built in to essentially a massive multidimensional matrix, for the most part. Which is why they can be run offline. And also why when I asked the most advanced ChatGPT o1 model, as of this afternoon, who the president was it told me:

“As of my most recent confirmed information, Joe Biden is the 46th president of the United States.”

This was with a good connection to the internet. The only thing being offline limits are calls to other APIs (like image generation), which you can verify within the open source code.

Now, you do have to understand that they will be able to censor answers and information on things like Tiananmen Square or CCP perceptions using online answer scrubbing. But as long as you know that internet enabled answers come from a biased source, I still do not get the fear mongering. I have seen many folks that are able to get the offline DeepSeek models to talk about things the CCP would not want them to.

edit: To be clear, I know if I used DeepSeek I should not ever type anything about myself or the government (I also know this about ChatGPT, Claude, etc.), as they will collect ANYTHING we put in the app. But I don’t understand those that say there is substantial risk in simply having the app. The navy reaction to me screams extremely overconservative easy button.

You are incorrect. 

 

Chat gpt absolutely has a web search capability. You are confusing the LLM with the many surrounding services that create a product you can use like ChatGPT or DeepSeek, including the phone or web app that acts as an interface between the LLM and the user. The app has all the same security risks any other app, such as TIK TOK, can have. 

Edited January 31 by Lord Ratner

[SurelySerious]

OpenAI Investigating If DeepSeek Used Its Models:
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-china-deepseek-chatgpt-probe-ce6b864e?st=kvf16Z&reflink=article_copyURL_share

[SurelySerious]

[uhhello]

Spokespeople are saying those are 'billed to' not shipped to locations.  Quibbling point.  

[busdriver]

Anyone who doesn't think China and Chinese companies did what was necessary to get their hands on the GPU horsepower required is naive to say the least.

The top of the line GPUs in the fall of 2022 were fairly hard to get initially, as Nvidia prioritized getting as many chips to China as possible before the ban went into effect.  I imagine many of those 4090s did not end up in gaming computers.

[gearhog]

US State Department position on Taiwan Before & After

[gearhog]

I think it's reasonable to conclude that the line "We do not support Taiwan independence" was purchased illegally by a foreign adversary from a fifth column here in the US.

[Clark Griswold]

Getting crazy down under

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/02/china-is-playing-a-dangerous-game-of-military-chicken-with-australia/

[FourFans]

On 2/17/2025 at 10:36 PM, Clark Griswold said:

Getting crazy down under

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/02/china-is-playing-a-dangerous-game-of-military-chicken-with-australia/

Over/under on the number of Mark 48 firing solutions there were on that Type 055 cruiser during that entire event?  I'd guess at least 3.

[Clark Griswold]

36 minutes ago, FourFans said:

Over/under on the number of Mark 48 firing solutions there were on that Type 055 cruiser during that entire event?  I'd guess at least 3.

A number greater than 1 

Still, this shit has got to stop, bullies respond to force and nothing more.  

[ClearedHot]

The latest exercise around Taiwan shows how urgent the China problem really is.  They have SERIOUS issues and as just released their population decreased for a third year in a row.

Peter Zeihan has a good outline of how the decrease is going to impact world-wide production of goods.

 

[Clark Griswold]

14 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

The latest exercise around Taiwan shows how urgent the China problem really is.  They have SERIOUS issues and as just released their population decreased for a third year in a row.

Peter Zeihan has a good outline of how the decrease is going to impact world-wide production of goods.

 

A good air naval land combined demonstration with live fire exercise is in order methinks…

Rapidly deploy 20 fighters, set up a Patriot battery, maintain a CAPs, shoot down a few drones, air drop a 1000 19 year olds with guns onto the PI while sailing a naval task force thru the Luzon Strait.

Fly a plane load a javelins and stingers to Taiwan and have them generate and demonstrate.  Xi might get the message then

[Clark Griswold]

Hack…

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/04/china-will-launch-an-invasion-of-taiwan-in-next-few-months-intel-sources/

[Lawman]

Hack…
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2025/04/china-will-launch-an-invasion-of-taiwan-in-next-few-months-intel-sources/

Every spring and every fall for the supportive weather.


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[Clark Griswold]

Every spring and every fall for the supportive weather.


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Yup
This time I think we’re close but I have not heard of the things we think would be necessarily happening pre-invasion…
Stockpiling hard currency/gold, food, fuel, parts, ammo production surge, information shaping operations, etc… with the drilling and massing of forces necessary for an invasion, a blockade strategy I don’t think would work for them
Invasion with port(s) seizure and breakout in 2 weeks would be my objective if I were planning

I do think that as Ukraine gets closer to an armistice that the probability of invasion increases, either side needs a partner not at war as a conduit to the economic system they’re now excluded from during their aggression


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[Lawman]

Yup
This time I think we’re close but I have not heard of the things we think would be necessarily happening pre-invasion…
Stockpiling hard currency/gold, food, fuel, parts, ammo production surge, information shaping operations, etc… with the drilling and massing of forces necessary for an invasion, a blockade strategy I don’t think would work for them
Invasion with port(s) seizure and breakout in 2 weeks would be my objective if I were planning

I do think that as Ukraine gets closer to an armistice that the probability of invasion increases, either side needs a partner not at war as a conduit to the economic system they’re now excluded from during their aggression


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I think honestly the Chinese are readapting their strategy because of the decision last November. I think they figured there is no way Trump wins again.

Everything seems to be suggesting the blockade/quarantine and dare us to do something while we dither and wither is the smart play towards reunification. It’s the only scenario where somebody can lose but we can theoretically be friends again later. Had Kamala won I think they’d have done that route expecting her to respond flaccidly if at all.

Trump being who he is, I think now the shock and awe becomes more viable because he will test the blockade, and allowing us to respond on our own terms with all the forces in the region puts them at a disadvantage.


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[Clark Griswold]

I think honestly the Chinese are readapting their strategy because of the decision last November. I think they figured there is no way Trump wins again.

Everything seems to be suggesting the blockade/quarantine and dare us to do something while we dither and wither is the smart play towards reunification. It’s the only scenario where somebody can lose but we can theoretically be friends again later. Had Kamala won I think they’d have done that route expecting her to respond flaccidly if at all.

Trump being who he is, I think now the shock and awe becomes more viable because he will test the blockade, and allowing us to respond on our own terms with all the forces in the region puts them at a disadvantage.


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Not a short read but a reasonable idea of what the PLA might have gamed out themselves on what an invasion would look like

https://cimsec.org/island-blitz-a-campaign-analysis-of-a-taiwan-takeover-by-the-pla/

The longer the operation takes the longer you have to lose, Russia proved that and the PLA has got to see that from their perspective.

Focus on port seizure, short but intense airspace corridor denial, establish naval blockade in the Luzon straight and Northeastern approaches
50/50 at that point


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