China & Chinese Shenanigans

[uhhello]

5 minutes ago, StoleIt said:

 

Update vRED. Neat. Can I just wait until it's mandatory for me to update it or do I literally need to waste time and look it over? Also, thanks for reminding me that in a war with China I'm gonna die. I'll just add that to my pros/cons of getting out of the Air Force list...how much QOL is dying worth? I guess the $400k SGLI will be nice though...anyone know if civilian life insurance covers PL-15's or is that something I have to get specific policy for?

March:

 

 

Great news buddy.  SGLI increased to 500k.  You're good to go 🙂

[Lord Ratner]

22 minutes ago, StoleIt said:

Kinda weird that the memo is dated 1 Feb (a couple days in the future from when it was sent). But, overlooking that slight anomaly, I think it was a poor attempt to try and (re)galvanize AMC into a wartime mindset. The people that are going to have to worry about their vRED and getting slapped around by China don't need to be told to empty a "clip" (WTF) into the head. Ops and MXG already have that mind set. Get the other groups onboard. But that will never happen. The frozen middle administrators in support roles in AMC make everything harder than it needs to be.

I want to be optimistic about what he is trying to accomplish but this memo was a piss poor attempt IMO.

February:

My bases CATM literally can't keep up with the current demand so all the pilots we have no longer keep up weapons qual. Now they want everyone to shoot in the month February? Okay...that's not going to happen.

Update vRED. Neat. Can I just wait until it's mandatory for me to update it or do I literally need to waste time and look it over? Also, thanks for reminding me that in a war with China I'm gonna die. I'll just add that to my pros/cons of getting out of the Air Force list...how much QOL is dying worth? I guess the $400k SGLI will be nice though...anyone know if civilian life insurance covers PL-15's or is that something I have to get specific policy for?

March:

Go see JAG to get my household affairs in order. Neat...again. Maybe the JAG will know the answer about my life insurance question. I think I'll just push the separation button slightly earlier actually. I can do that from my office instead of going all the way to the JAG.

We can't even get a working autopilot on the -135 and you want to modify it to be a drone carrier? How about we get it back into RVSM airspace as a realistic and achievable goal.

/rant

I don't mean this is an attack on you, but your post demonstrates why these things rarely change.

Let's operate on the assumption that this guy actually has the authority and approval to put these types of changes into place. When an organization is run like dog shit for so long, you end up with a lot of lost-causes who simply can't move on from the amount of shit they were forced to eat for so long. I'm one of those people by the way.

 

So when you come in as a leader with an attempt to make a drastic and immediate change to the very character of the organization, it's not going to work if you don't first go through and sweep away all the dead bodies. A perfect example of this is Twitter, I think they got rid of 2/3 or 3/4 of the company at this point, and that's what it takes to make sure the cynicism born of the previous however-many years of terrible leadership and decision making don't poison the future.

 

The leadership infrastructure in AMC is built upon a system that this guy is trying to flip over. That means the leaders now are literally the opposite of the leaders he needs. The AF picked the current AMC sq/gp/wg commanders based on ability to process and adhere to administrivia. Now he wants leaders who excel in undefined environments, with a much, much higher probability of failure. We're talking polar opposites in terms of leadership characteristic. Is the air force ready for what accompanies those types of leaders? Considering the last decade of squadron-culture-eradication, I doubt it. 

 

This will not work until the stakes are so high that the AMC/CC can literally remove a commander on-sight and install his replacement on the same day. You need alignment of vision to make something like this work, and the outgoing leaders will not take their exile idly if they are removed one-by-one over time. Mini will not be the CC when this happens.

 

He's the leader we need, but remember the first rule: timing is everything. He's too early, and as such he will fail. 

[StoleIt]

9 minutes ago, Lord Ratner said:

I don't mean this is an attack on you, but your post demonstrates why these things rarely change.

Let's operate on the assumption that this guy actually has the authority and approval to put these types of changes into place. When an organization is run like dog shit for so long, you end up with a lot of lost-causes who simply can't move on from the amount of shit they were forced to eat for so long. I'm one of those people by the way.

 

So when you come in as a leader with an attempt to make a drastic and immediate change to the very character of the organization, it's not going to work if you don't first go through and sweep away all the dead bodies. A perfect example of this is Twitter, I think they got rid of 2/3 or 3/4 of the company at this point, and that's what it takes to make sure the cynicism born of the previous however-many years of terrible leadership and decision making don't poison the future.

 

The leadership infrastructure in AMC is built upon a system that this guy is trying to flip over. That means the leaders now are literally the opposite of the leaders he needs. The AF picked the current AMC sq/gp/wg commanders based on ability to process and adhere to administrivia. Now he wants leaders who excel in undefined environments, with a much, much higher probability of failure. We're talking polar opposites in terms of leadership characteristic. Is the air force ready for what accompanies those types of leaders? Considering the last decade of squadron-culture-eradication, I doubt it. 

 

This will not work until the stakes are so high that the AMC/CC can literally remove a commander on-sight and install his replacement on the same day. You need alignment of vision to make something like this work, and the outgoing leaders will not take their exile idly if they are removed one-by-one over time. Mini will not be the CC when this happens.

 

He's the leader we need, but remember the first rule: timing is everything. He's too early, and as such he will fail. 

Not taking it as a personal attack. I'm one to dismiss, ignore, and skirt every type of queep/bureaucracy to get the mission done (sidebar: it actually made for a great TMAAT story at my legacy interview).

But Mini is what...at least the 3rd 4-star in a row to talk about how we need to accelerate or die, right? What has changed? Has anything gotten better? I see it all as empty words. Go in and publicly fire some people that are holding up progress. Publicly promote the dudes who solved the complex tactical issue that CH mentioned. I don't disagree with Mini's intent but, after 6-9 years of hearing it, and not seeing any traction take place I just can't be bothered anymore.

[DirkDiggler]

23 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

I hear and think you are mostly right but f*** it, who cares, when we are given the chance to speak the truth from a place and platform that the troops, the warfighters, the mission hackers can hear it and not get watered down by the Bobs, yes men and future apparatchiks of the nat sec blob, we should take it.  

Maybe this was planned, maybe they told him to be the guy to say what needed to be said publicly then rebuked but he has now said the emperor has no clothes and it is in the public space and probably now acceptable for other leaders to say well I would said it differently but.. it's true so we're gonna focus on real military shit because WW3 is upcoming...

One of the (kinda) cool things about ACSC in-res was the level of briefer/public speaker that would come and talk with us.  Ran the gambit, tons of 4 stars, State Department types, couple politicians etc.  Some of them stuck with/spoke the party line, some actually had real shit to same and were quite candid in their views/opinions.

  Unfortunately, the military guys that usually were the most candid/interesting were the ones that were no longer upwardly mobile or those that were close to retirement.  Almost all of them, to a T, made sure that the cameras weren't on or that "academic immunity" or whatever they called it was in effect.  They were all very concerned about going "on the record" about pretty much anything. 

  I understand that messaging wise you don't want to get in-front of your boss(es) and that having generals openly saying things that are at odds with our civilian leadership is not usually a good thing.  At the same time, I've always been a fan of leaders who are blunt in their beliefs/expectations and who are willing to take risks if it means their force(s) are well prepared and ready for unexpected challenges.  I'm not sure we have as many 0-6+ leaders ready for an all out, attritional type war with a peer as we need.

  Interesting anecdote, just finished up another deployment and as I was writing AMs for my crew, it was brought to my attention that the local awards pub did not allow the words "captured" or "killed" to be used in award citations anymore.  Was seriously a WTFuck moment; the military exists, on lawful order, to kill people and break their shit, but I can't officially say that anymore or recognize people for performing their primary duty to our country.

  I'm a firm believer that every young officer should read TE Ferenbach's This Kind of War, specifically the chapter titled "Proud Legions".  Would have applicable lessons for any full on fight with China, Russia, NK, or Iran.

[BashiChuni]

nothing will change when the same "leaders" in charge of the afghanistan debacle are still in charge. show me one senior leader who resigned or was fired...they weren't.

in fact they doubled down and called it a success. cowards. all of them.

[DirkDiggler]

The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan (csis.org)

  This is a long read and doesn't contain any new revelations (at least I didn't think so).  Also doesn't benefit from any knowledge of classified capes.  Still, was an interesting skim/look into multiple factors that might effect a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

[disgruntledemployee]

I was quite surprised to see Mini's name on that memo.  This should have been a CSAF or JCS level directive.  2nd, the memo could have removed China getting called out specifically, because I think by calling them out a fight is more likely to occur because of it.  Lastly, it could have addressed firearms training without jumping the shark.  I guess we use "clips" in our M9s and M-4s? 

But here is where I was truly surprised; the attempt to remove obstacles to operations, taking away the absurdity of current command mentality, and improve the force.  Like, allow Sq/CCs run their units without having to report every cotton-picking tiny piece of bullshit.  Aircraft CCs run their missions and crews to get the job done.  Like actually instill independence.  A lot of ACs these days gotta ask permission to do anything.  Wartime and home base ops have two standards.  Why the hell is the waiver authority so high for dumb shit?  So I expect the semiannual self inspector to get a new job.  Bullshit side duties to die with impunity.  But don't forget the vRED!  He has some power to modify AFIs, so start chopping.

As a small aside, this is the same Mini that slammed a fist into chalkboard in front of a lot of crews because he thought he saw one of then taxi past a pallet within 10 feet; crew saw it, knew of it, talked while going past it, safe distance, no danger.  To see him advocate for the opposite is refreshing.

Hope he can keep it up.

PS.  Mattis was once (or more) heavily critiqued for saying its fun to shoot some people.  He survived.

[farva]

On 1/27/2023 at 8:33 AM, nsplayr said:

 

WTF is this memo real??

At least we're GTG on go-Pills

[Clark Griswold]

2 hours ago, DirkDiggler said:

One of the (kinda) cool things about ACSC in-res was the level of briefer/public speaker that would come and talk with us.  Ran the gambit, tons of 4 stars, State Department types, couple politicians etc.  Some of them stuck with/spoke the party line, some actually had real shit to same and were quite candid in their views/opinions.

  Unfortunately, the military guys that usually were the most candid/interesting were the ones that were no longer upwardly mobile or those that were close to retirement.  Almost all of them, to a T, made sure that the cameras weren't on or that "academic immunity" or whatever they called it was in effect.  They were all very concerned about going "on the record" about pretty much anything. 

  I understand that messaging wise you don't want to get in-front of your boss(es) and that having generals openly saying things that are at odds with our civilian leadership is not usually a good thing.  At the same time, I've always been a fan of leaders who are blunt in their beliefs/expectations and who are willing to take risks if it means their force(s) are well prepared and ready for unexpected challenges.  I'm not sure we have as many 0-6+ leaders ready for an all out, attritional type war with a peer as we need.

  Interesting anecdote, just finished up another deployment and as I was writing AMs for my crew, it was brought to my attention that the local awards pub did not allow the words "captured" or "killed" to be used in award citations anymore.  Was seriously a WTFuck moment; the military exists, on lawful order, to kill people and break their shit, but I can't officially say that anymore or recognize people for performing their primary duty to our country.

  I'm a firm believer that every young officer should read TE Ferenbach's This Kind of War, specifically the chapter titled "Proud Legions".  Would have applicable lessons for any full on fight with China, Russia, NK, or Iran.

My spidey sense says they were still concerned about their career vs what they believed, it was just about their next career.  Be it college president, think tank wonk, consultant, whatever... those who publicly profess contra-prevailing conventional wisdom / groupthink ideas probably have limited post mil career opportunities.

There is something to having a unified team and then there's a pack of lemmings blindly following the lemming in front of them.  No perfect objective measure like porn vs art but you know it when you see it.  I think that compliments your above point on leaders willing to challenge the status quo.

Copy book recommendation.

Edited January 29, 2023 by Clark Griswold

[Sua Sponte]

[FourFans]

18 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

So, a C-130?

[DirkDiggler]

2 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

My spidey sense says they were still concerned about their career vs what they believed, it was just about their next career.  Be it college president, think tank wonk, consultant, whatever... those who publicly profess contra-prevailing conventional wisdom / groupthink ideas probably have limited post mil career opportunities.

There is something to having a unified team and then there's a pack of lemmings blindly following the lemming in front of them.  No perfect objective measure like porn vs art but you know it when you see it.  I think that compliments your above point on leaders willing to challenge the status quo.

Copy book recommendation.

Agreed.

  I guess the thing that boggles my mind the most on that is the still climbing the ladder/still looking for a follow on if you’re a 4 star (or any star or O-6 for that matter IMO).  Even as an O-4/5, be the guy/gal you want to be, do the right thing.  I’ve never understood the style of thinking and action that is constantly, overwhelmingly concerned with climbing the next rung in ladder.

[Sua Sponte]

1 hour ago, FourFans130 said:

So, a C-130?

C-130’s have boom flamethrowers?

Edited January 30, 2023 by Sua Sponte

[nsplayr]

7 minutes ago, Sua Sponte said:

C-130’s have boom flamethrowers?

Kind of haha

[FlyingWolf]

1 hour ago, Sua Sponte said:

C-130’s have boom flamethrowers?

Put a HAAR pod on one side and the laser testbed version of the AC-130J could basically do all of this... Haven't seen rocket pods done yet, does JATO count?

Gun out the right hand side though... Blasphemous

Edit: Fixed the meme for ya

Edited January 30, 2023 by FlyingWolf

[nsplayr]

Good call, gunship pilots get spatial D'd if they turn right. Better make it a left 270 just to be safe 😅

[Clark Griswold]

Agreed.
  I guess the thing that boggles my mind the most on that is the still climbing the ladder/still looking for a follow on if you’re a 4 star (or any star or O-6 for that matter IMO).  Even as an O-4/5, be the guy/gal you want to be, do the right thing.  I’ve never understood the style of thinking and action that is constantly, overwhelmingly concerned with climbing the next rung in ladder.

It’s to some extent more money but I think it’s really for these guys still being part of the DC scene in some way, if you get another job in the nat sec ir blob the road goes forever and the party never ends


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[AC&W]

7 hours ago, FourFans130 said:

So, a C-130?

 

5 hours ago, Sua Sponte said:

C-130’s have boom flamethrowers?

 

4 hours ago, FlyingWolf said:

Put a HAAR pod on one side and the laser testbed version of the AC-130J could basically do all of this...

Almost there, but how are you going to manage the battlespace without the radardome?

[FourFans]

1 hour ago, AC&W said:

Almost there, but how are you going to manage the battlespace without the radardome?

Who needs C2 when you've got mission type orders?

[Swizzle]

6 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Good call, gunship pilots get spatial D'd if they turn right. Better make it a left 270 just to be safe 😅

[charlie141]

I worked for Mini as an O-6 and I’m certain his heart is in the right place here; execution could have been better.

It’s Monday morning, so we’ll know soon if he has any top cover or tacit approval.


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[ClearedHot]

21 hours ago, nsplayr said:

Good call, gunship pilots get spatial D'd if they turn right. Better make it a left 270 just to be safe 😅

Shut up Nav...I'd rather have the gas.

[Clark Griswold]

I worked for Mini as an O-6 and I’m certain his heart is in the right place here; execution could have been better.

It’s Monday morning, so we’ll know soon if he has any top cover or tacit approval.


Sent from my iPhone using Baseops Network mobile app

I think the collective assessment that Mini is done might be premature

Looks like he’s got some support

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rep-mccaul-air-force-generals-prediction-2025-war-china-hope-wrong-think-right.amp

And on this podcast he got some support

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fault-lines/id1481982630?i=1000597292329


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[Pooter]

From the outside looking in on AMC I think I speak for a lot of people by wondering:

Why is Minihan mouthing off about war with China, firing clips, and drone delivery good idea fairies when the two tankers that constitute almost our entire capacity to project airpower around the globe are f-ed up with no end in sight?

This is also the dude behind single pilot tanker ops right? Seems like he is big on new age pie in the sky nonsense and not very big on the fundamentals.

If he's actually so concerned about war with China, maybe he could do something about the fact that the tactical experts in his (and all majcoms) spend 60-90% of their time on administrivia. Do you think chinese pilots are worrying about quarterly awards? I doubt it.. 
 

And in case he's reading this thread here's  a non all inclusive list of things he could enact literally tomorrow that would immeasurably improve our lethality and mobility:

-abolish all awards not related to combat operations 

-enact single line OPRs and EPRs that show your strat 1-n and that's it. 

-reduce the waiver authority for literally everything in every reg to no higher than OG or WG level

-reduce readiness reporting to once a quarter

-abolish TMT

-order your subordinate commanders to eliminate the every additional duty that does not directly contribute to readiness/lethality. 
 

If he ever did any of that, I'd take his memo a lot more seriously. 

[Pooter]

13 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

I think the collective assessment that Mini is done might be premature

Looks like he’s got some support

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rep-mccaul-air-force-generals-prediction-2025-war-china-hope-wrong-think-right.amp

And on this podcast he got some support

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/fault-lines/id1481982630?i=1000597292329


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I'm sure some people agree with his assessment. But the point is it's not his assessment to make and blast out to the whole world. His job is to manage AMC, make sure it's as good as it can be, and leave the strategy up to the secaf, csaf, secdef, Congress, potus etc...

Attaching a specific year to your prediction is especially asinine because you're almost begging for it to happen on that timeline. He could have said something like "near peer conflict in the pacific is likely in the coming years so I need you to all be ready."  That says basically the same thing  inside AMC without everyone in DC having to run damage control for you.