China & Chinese Shenanigans

[Stoker]

That memo reads like it's written by someone who doesn't actually believe that rapid global mobility is a tool in the strategic bag just like blowing people up is. Read about the Berlin Airlift and the strategic dilemmas a bunch of transport aircraft were able to create for the Soviets, and options they created for the US, and none of those pilots were shooting pistols at targets or flying like cowboys. The ability to deliver a couple thousand tons of cargo a day, safely, is a unique and war-winning capability in the right circumstances - we need to play to our strengths, not pretend we're ACC light.

[Prozac]

2 hours ago, Pooter said:

Do you think chinese pilots are worrying about quarterly awards? I doubt it.. 

After spending some time in the country & seeing how they operate, I’d bet money you’re wrong. I can almost guarantee they’re spending enough time in ‘how to be a good communist’ class for it to be a detriment to their warfighting skills. That said, the rest of your post is spot on. 

[Clark Griswold]

I'm sure some people agree with his assessment. But the point is it's not his assessment to make and blast out to the whole world. His job is to manage AMC, make sure it's as good as it can be, and leave the strategy up to the secaf, csaf, secdef, Congress, potus etc...
Attaching a specific year to your prediction is especially asinine because you're almost begging for it to happen on that timeline. He could have said something like "near peer conflict in the pacific is likely in the coming years so I need you to all be ready."  That says basically the same thing  inside AMC without everyone in DC having to run damage control for you. 

I think your point is valid but I think sometimes there is value in stirring the pot.
He’s a 4 star of a MAJCOM, he expressed the martial spirit and perhaps awkwardly a bit inspired his troops
I think he was trying to channel this

We need not always be reserved and restrained, letting our foes and competitors know that we are ready and on some level itching for fight is a good way to nurture deterrence


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[CaptainMorgan]

I think he’s channeling his inner General Ripper.


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[ClearedHot]

9 hours ago, Pooter said:

From the outside looking in on AMC I think I speak for a lot of people by wondering:

Why is Minihan mouthing off about war with China, firing clips, and drone delivery good idea fairies when the two tankers that constitute almost our entire capacity to project airpower around the globe are f-ed up with no end in sight?

This is also the dude behind single pilot tanker ops right? Seems like he is big on new age pie in the sky nonsense and not very big on the fundamentals.

If he's actually so concerned about war with China, maybe he could do something about the fact that the tactical experts in his (and all majcoms) spend 60-90% of their time on administrivia. Do you think chinese pilots are worrying about quarterly awards? I doubt it.. 
 

And in case he's reading this thread here's  a non all inclusive list of things he could enact literally tomorrow that would immeasurably improve our lethality and mobility:

-abolish all awards not related to combat operations 

-enact single line OPRs and EPRs that show your strat 1-n and that's it.

Again, I am biased because I've known him for so long.  IMHO he truly believes we are going to fight China (as do I), and when you look at the models, wargames, intel briefs, numbers...it is going to be UGLY.  Under current circumstances the losses will be terrible on both sides and will cost us greatly in lives and treasure.  Allowing the conversation about single pilot tanker ops was a move to set the conditions for change.  I don't care if the union thinks it is a bad idea (it is), the situation is so dire we need to discuss every option, reexamine every tactic and find ways to flip the calculus back on the Chinese. 

Brother I hear what you are saying about admin and queep.  A couple years retired and in reflection I am GLAD to be retired, I miss the squadron, the flying, and mostly I miss the people, but I always  default to be overwhelmingly happy to be away from the queep and the caustic leaders we turn into GOs.  That being said, as a component commander Mini is pushing the limits where he can (and a bit outside those lines).  As the training and equip boss, CSAF sets the tone and makes the rules on queep and I've seen CQ do NOTHING other than continue the status quo (or make it worse...ie Advanced Degrees).  I am willing to give Mini the benefit of the doubt and see where it goes. 

9 hours ago, Pooter said:

-reduce the waiver authority for literally everything in every reg to no higher than OG or WG level

Did you read his memo?

"COMMANDER’S INTENT. Go faster. Drive readiness, integration, and agility for ourselves and the Joint Force to deter, and if required, defeat China. This is the first of 8 monthly directives from me. You need to know I alone own the pen on these orders. My expectations are high, and these orders are not up for negotiation. Follow them. I will be tough, fair, and loving in my approach to secure victory.

RISK. Run deliberately, not recklessly. You will be governed by the principle of calculated training risk, which you shall interpret to mean the avoidance of death, serious injury, and Class A damage to attain higher readiness, integration, and agility. If the Tactic, Technique, and Procedure you are developing increases AMC’s ability to fight and win inside the first island chain… move out. If you are comfortable in your approach to training, then you are not taking enough risk."

8 hours ago, Pooter said:

I'm sure some people agree with his assessment. But the point is it's not his assessment to make and blast out to the whole world. His job is to manage AMC, make sure it's as good as it can be, and leave the strategy up to the secaf, csaf, secdef, Congress, potus etc...

Attaching a specific year to your prediction is especially asinine because you're almost begging for it to happen on that timeline. He could have said something like "near peer conflict in the pacific is likely in the coming years so I need you to all be ready."  That says basically the same thing  inside AMC without everyone in DC having to run damage control for you. 

Disagree, I would argue it is his DUTY to communicate his concerns, orders and intent to the forces he leads. 

As for attaching a specific date, the intel community and some think tanks have been signaling that for the past 12 months.  There is a collision of specific events in 2025 (Chinese capes, Chinese population, Chinese economy, U.S. Presidential election and a few others), that have a lot of people believing there is a mark on the calendar.  This "date" is driving a lot of decision making and if you step back you will see it...Sole Source Wedgetail to replace E-3, Bridge Tanker, Navy ship maintenance timelines, Navy Attack sub procurement and shipyard turn times.

I pray to god I am wrong and we don't fight China, but if I am right I am thankful there are people like Mini willing to risk career and inspire change, outside the box thinking and find new ways to win what will be a terrible fight. 

[Muscle2002]

1 hour ago, ClearedHot said:

CSAF sets the tone and makes the rules on queep and I've seen CQ do NOTHING other than continue the status quo

That may be why there are rumors swirling around that Gen Berger will get the nod for CJCS because of his willingness to upset the apple cart in his approach to “Force Design.”

[Lord Ratner]

11 hours ago, Pooter said:

Do you think chinese pilots are worrying about quarterly awards? I doubt it.. 

Agreed with everything except this. The Chinese are almost certainly drowning in stupid paperwork, especially awards. If there's one thing communist dictatorships love, its meaningless flair.

 

[Stoker]

Interesting thing about the North Korean medals, remember that they're effectively an aristocracy based on loyalty to the regime. If you're in the military, you wear the medals your dad and grandad won, to show how you come from a long line of Kim supporters.

[uhhello]

46 minutes ago, Stoker said:

Interesting thing about the North Korean medals, remember that they're effectively an aristocracy based on loyalty to the regime. If you're in the military, you wear the medals your dad and grandad won, to show how you come from a long line of Kim supporters.

If they could find a tailor, they'd be a force 

[SurelySerious]

If they could find a tailor, they'd be a force 

Need a lot of cloth real estate for all those pieces of flair.

[Biff_T]

The AMC Curtis Lemay. 

I agree with CH, the Chinese would need to strike soon (next few years) to have a chance.   I hope they don't but hope doesn't stop bullets.   I'm glad to see someone putting the "killing" spirit into AMC.  If China decides it's time to dance, a lot of people (good guys too) will eat it.  I think it will benefit our airmen to see leadership transition (sts) from the GWOT mentality to a traditional war fighter mindset.  Seeing tankers explode in flight is a far cry from burning circles over bad guys with complete air superiority.  The AMC airmen who've never seen airburst and AAA will have better chance, (knowing that AMC assets will be targeted) if they train to fight against it.  

[uhhello]

59 minutes ago, Biff_T said:

The AMC Curtis Lemay. 

I agree with CH, the Chinese would need to strike soon (next few years) to have a chance.   I hope they don't but hope doesn't stop bullets.   I'm glad to see someone putting the "killing" spirit into AMC.  If China decides it's time to dance, a lot of people (good guys too) will eat it.  I think it will benefit our airmen to see leadership transition (sts) from the GWOT mentality to a traditional war fighter mindset.  Seeing tankers explode in flight is a far cry from burning circles over bad guys with complete air superiority.  The AMC airmen who've never seen airburst and AAA will have better chance, (knowing that AMC assets will be targeted) if they train to fight against it.  

Plenty of AMC crews reported airbursts and "tracking projectiles" during my OEF/OIF/Alphabet soup days.  (2010 to the end)  🙂

Edited January 31, 2023 by uhhello

[Biff_T]

10 minutes ago, uhhello said:

Plenty of AMC crews reported airbursts and "tracking projectiles" during my OEF/OIF/Alphabet soup days.  🙂

When we first invaded Iraq, they were definitely lobbing things into the air.  The first few weeks of OIF provided a nice display of airbursts.  I did see AAA tracking an aircraft below us.  I can see it clearly to this day.   I was a boom in the KC-10.  Another one of our crews was followed by airburst. The boom was one of my friends.  He seemed pretty shook up talking about it.  One of my receivers was shot down on April 7, 2003 near Tikrit.  I'm not claiming the tankers were strafing and taking out targets but I wouldn’t say tankers seeing AAA is nonsense.   The problem is most of the guys who flew in the invasion are out.   It's probably been a few years since a tanker crew felt threatened.  

[DirkDiggler]

Denial May Bring War - Punishment May Keep it at Bay (substack.com)

[uhhello]

13 minutes ago, Biff_T said:

When we first invaded Iraq, they were definitely lobbing things into the air.  The first few weeks of OIF provided a nice display of airbursts.  I did see AAA tracking an aircraft below us.  I can see it clearly to this day.   I was a boom in the KC-10.  Another one of our crews was followed by airburst. The boom was one of my friends.  He seemed pretty shook up talking about it.  One of my receivers was shot down on April 7, 2003 near Tikrit.  I'm not claiming the tankers were strafing and taking out targets but I wouldn’t say tankers seeing AAA is nonsense.   The problem is most of the guys who flew in the invasion are out.   It's probably been a few years since a tanker crew felt threatened.  

For sure.  SHould have been more specific.  OEF post 2010

[Pooter]

15 hours ago, Prozac said:

After spending some time in the country & seeing how they operate, I’d bet money you’re wrong. I can almost guarantee they’re spending enough time in ‘how to be a good communist’ class for it to be a detriment to their warfighting skills. That said, the rest of your post is spot on. 

I really hope this is true. I'm doubtful though    based on their insane pace of military development in the last few years

break/break

@Clark Griswold

point taken. I can see the argument that having a few wildcards out there in command will make enemies think twice.

Break/break

9 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

Did you read his memo?

"COMMANDER’S INTENT. Go faster. Drive readiness, integration, and agility for ourselves and the Joint Force to deter, and if required, defeat China. This is the first of 8 monthly directives from me. You need to know I alone own the pen on these orders. My expectations are high, and these orders are not up for negotiation. Follow them. I will be tough, fair, and loving in my approach to secure victory.

RISK. Run deliberately, not recklessly. You will be governed by the principle of calculated training risk, which you shall interpret to mean the avoidance of death, serious injury, and Class A damage to attain higher readiness, integration, and agility. If the Tactic, Technique, and Procedure you are developing increases AMC’s ability to fight and win inside the first island chain… move out. If you are comfortable in your approach to training, then you are not taking enough risk."

 

I'm willing to grant that he has the right intent here, but to be honest this reads exactly like the same "accelerate, change, or lose" drivel we seen for years without anything changing. You're smart and experienced enough to know that the status quo will continue unless you spell things out explicitly and force the change you want. 
 

We all know the saying about the difference between the Air Force and Navy.. in the navy they check the reg to see if it says they can't do it. In the Air Force we check the reg to see if we can.  So you know damn well that these two paragraphs are not going to reduce queep one iota, because it's not explicit enough.  Waiver authorities aren't going to change enterprise wide without specific direction to do so and top cover to go along with it. The queep administrivia will continue because these vague paragraphs get laundered through 6-9 levels of command until it's just status quo by the time it reaches the squadron level.  I'll repeat my previous question: why are the only specific directives in the memo about firearm training, vred, and pie in the sky 135 drone deployment?
 

Maybe I'm hyper sensitive to the admin issue right now because I just came into a very queep heavy job. But I truly believe on this issue, we say one thing and then do the exact opposite. We say we're going to accelerate and change, but all I see at my level is myeval turning the OPR process into even more of an abortion.  Leaders say they want you to take calculated risks, but the waiver authority to make a tiny syllabus deviation in any upgrade program is with the first two-star or higher. As if they have literally any idea what we're asking for, and we all have weeks to sit around waiting for an eSSS to route up to the NAF and back. 
 

My point is the bureaucracy is too deep for generic talking points to make any difference. And you have to remember us peons at the lowest level are just trying to follow the rules, make good decisions within our power, and CYA so we don't get crucified. So as strange as it may sound if you want to elicit any actual change from a high level, you need to be hyper specific. I'm sure the 135 drone thing will at least be workshopped. Because he explicitly mentioned it. 

[Danger41]

Dude, please don’t take this as a personal attack because that’s not intended, but your type of attitude is exactly the type of problem that weighs the Air Force down. If you don’t want to be micromanaged and be able to exercise your prerogatives at your level, you have more than enough to move out now. You have all the CYA you need with that memo. That’s direct from the highest rank in the Air Force giving very clear intent. Some Bob in the middle has an issue with that doesn’t rate beating the 4-Star. If they’re toxic and threaten/obfuscate, go to the next level and/or IG. Hell, go direct to Mini. 

[filthy_liar]

21 hours ago, Pooter said:

If he's actually so concerned about war with China,

He's not.  He's maneuvering for life after the AF.

[nsplayr]

2 hours ago, Danger41 said:

You have all the CYA you need with that memo. That’s direct from the highest rank in the Air Force giving very clear intent. Some Bob in the middle has an issue with that doesn’t rate beating the 4-Star.

This has not at all been my experience. Shit, I have even had what I thought was unimpeachably clear regs on my side AND local leadership (up to WG/CC) support and STILL got stymied by some f-ing bean counter in between the 4-star and local O-6 level.

YMMV I guess, but I have seen zero evidence that a vague memo from on high stating “take calculated risks” and “innovate the process” will help you one iota if you are a squadron, group, or wing level bro trying to do exactly that and run into the blob and some reason why you can’t do what you are trying to do.

I applaud AMC/CC’s intent on pushing innovation and motivation and even coming at things a bit like the Tasmanian devil. Occasionally that’s needed. Occasionally.

My biggest quibble is wishcasting a major war with China in a specific year. That is WAY outside his lane and I’m sure the subject of some feedback he’s received. Senior officers are inherently also diplomats and his memo wasn’t exactly diplomatic.

Deterrence through strength is priority #1. You win 100% of wars you don’t have to fight because your opponents and competitors back down before becoming true enemies.

The “fire a clip…head shots only” is just extra hilarious because you have to hit center of mass in order to even qual down at the range 😅

Yeeting the pallet of drones from a KC-135 gets my stamp of approval, but mostly because I’m a drone guy and my best friend is a tanker pilot and I’d love to Team America against a horde of random bad guys like we joked about back in high school 🇺🇸 Not sure it can happen by end of Q1 2023 but hey, go for it and I’ll volunteer to help if they’re taking randos from the peanut gallery.

Edited February 1, 2023 by nsplayr

[Pooter]

20 hours ago, Danger41 said:

Dude, please don’t take this as a personal attack because that’s not intended, but your type of attitude is exactly the type of problem that weighs the Air Force down. If you don’t want to be micromanaged and be able to exercise your prerogatives at your level, you have more than enough to move out now. You have all the CYA you need with that memo. That’s direct from the highest rank in the Air Force giving very clear intent. Some Bob in the middle has an issue with that doesn’t rate beating the 4-Star. If they’re toxic and threaten/obfuscate, go to the next level and/or IG. Hell, go direct to Mini. 

A. I'm not in AMC so I have zero CYA

B. Most crewdogs I know including myself don't have the time or energy to start a chain of command food fight over the interpretation of this vague nonsense. Your comment literally acknowledges my chief complaint about the memo. It's too broad and middle management is going to maintain the status quo like they always do.

One captain lighting his career on fire by going VFR direct to the IG or the f-ing majcom cc is not going to change shit. 
 

I will repeat for a third time. If Mini can be overly specific about clips, vred, and 135 drone delivery, why can't he be specific about things that would actually make a difference?

[FourFans]

1 hour ago, Pooter said:

If Mini can be overly specific about clips, vred, and 135 drone delivery, why can't he be specific about things that would actually make a difference?

Agree.

1 hour ago, Pooter said:

One captain lighting his career on fire by going VFR direct to the IG or the f-ing majcom cc is not going to change shit. 

False.  One man standing up for what's RIGHT turns into a bunch of men standing up for what's right.  It's called leading.

[Pooter]

1 hour ago, FourFans130 said:

Agree.

False.  One man standing up for what's RIGHT turns into a bunch of men standing up for what's right.  It's called leading.

You've inspired me, I'm going to attempt to start a grassroots campaign of queep conscientious objectors. 
 

1st order of business: no one submit for OPRs or awards. When the queep lords as why we'll tell them we were in the vault studying. The movement will spread to the sister squadrons, then throughout the airframe and the majcom until flyers Air Force wide refuse to waste time on queep
 

you crazy son of a bitch this might just work 

[WheelsOff]

1 hour ago, FourFans130 said:

Agree.

False.  One man standing up for what's RIGHT turns into a bunch of men standing up for what's right.  It's called leading.

While it’s nice to sit here and pontificate about people leading a rah-rah grassroots upheaval of the queep; having watched this show 69 times already over the past 13 years, you and I both know full well this will NEVER happen in this particular context. 

[SurelySerious]

That GS queep employee has the longevity and therefore the staying power to overpower Capt Spirit.

[Danger41]

4 hours ago, Pooter said:

A. I'm not in AMC so I have zero CYA

B. Most crewdogs I know including myself don't have the time or energy to start a chain of command food fight over the interpretation of this vague nonsense. Your comment literally acknowledges my chief complaint about the memo. It's too broad and middle management is going to maintain the status quo like they always do.

One captain lighting his career on fire by going VFR direct to the IG or the f-ing majcom cc is not going to change shit. 
 

I will repeat for a third time. If Mini can be overly specific about clips, vred, and 135 drone delivery, why can't he be specific about things that would actually make a difference?

I’m not in AMC either but I have CYA by the overt and repeated directions from the  Chief of Staff (the last 3 really) to make it happen/innovate/accelerate change/a bunch of other platitudes that is a massive opportunity. Why do you want overly specific guidance as a crew dog captain? I can give that to an Airman and have him do exactly what I say. Don’t you want to put your brain, education, aggressiveness and initiative to use? You’ve got the intent so go! And if you don’t think a Captain can make a difference then I don’t know what to tell you.  The whole service is founded on that maverick spirit all the way back to the literal start. Everyone always fawns over Robin Olds but his crowning achievement in Vietnam (Operation Bolo) was planned by a couple of captains and lieutenants that were sick of overly restrictive ROE and wanted to make a difference (sound familiar?) Or Linebacker 2 getting unfucked by a bunch of young dudes after the first couple nights when all the geniuses on high had a bad plan. Hell, when I was a young Patch I drastically changed our TTP that rippled across CENTCOM because the old way was going to cause Civcas. I told the flag officers in charge and they were stoked and we changed it the next day. I’m nothing special at all but I really believe that type of thing is what the American people want military officers to be and not just voice activated robots. 
 

This will never happen because it’s the same cycle that’s repeated in the military since the damn Romans, but we better stop worrying about all the 1206’s and all that bullshit because when the war starts, that and those who focus on it will go away. Here’s another hot take but Commanders thinking their only job is to “take care of their people” in the form of awards and the like should be fired. Their primary jobs are to execute the mission, lead people, manage resources, and improve the unit. I‘ve seen squadrons that have great paperwork, get their guys all the good jobs, and suck ass at their combat mission. Naturally those squadron commanders were praised and sent onto “bigger and better” things and the combat focused got ran out of town. It’s not right and the organization has some serious failings, I’ll agree on that.

You and I won’t agree on whether this is an opportunity or just a poorly worded spew that’s no help. That’s fine and I respect what you’re saying. I’ve been a pissed off Captain myself so I can totally relate. I’ve said my piece and will let you have the last word.