China & Chinese Shenanigans

[Stoker]

I mean, Taiwan doesn't explicitly support Taiwan's independence. If there's one lesson we should take away from our involvement in Afghanistan and Ukraine, it's that we should only commit to helping people who are willing to die for their cause. 

[Biff_T]

2 hours ago, Stoker said:

I mean, Taiwan doesn't explicitly support Taiwan's independence. If there's one lesson we should take away from our involvement in Afghanistan and Ukraine, it's that we should only commit to helping people who are willing to die for their cause. 

This

[HeloDude]

Funny, I’ve been saying this for quite a while on here:   No American administration is going to war with China to protect Taiwan.  And likewise, no sizable amount of the American population is going to refuse to purchase products made in China if/when China goes into Taiwan.

[bfargin]

Anybody watched this. Some info, some speculation, and some analysis. Interesting.

 

[Lawman]

Anybody watched this. Some info, some speculation, and some analysis. Interesting.
 

Do you have any idea how many prepared sites for supporting dispersed operations we maintained in Europe during the Cold War or currently maintain in Korea as various echelons?

Do you know how many places in the Indo-PACOM theatre we have agreements but don’t prepositions at because it’s 3rd and 4th order contingency locations? Some of its shadow guessing. Drop some connex’s and a dirt runway you never intent to use and out yourself in the RedFor commander… gonna spend some Tactical Ballistic missiles on site A, B, C?… what about this other guy. Hey look we depleted your strike capability with deception ops. Or maybe we go there with intent from the balloon going up. Either way it’s effective.

This isn’t new. This is prudence of let’s not write/staff/support an O-plan while the war is actually ongoing. That’s been a true nature for strategic planning not just for us but for every major power as long as power has been expeditionary (British Empire with things like the China squadron, German General Staff, US War plan Orange/red/yellow for USA, etc).

[bfargin]

All the posturing makes me desire the simplicity of honesty by world leaders. I know that might create its own set of problems.
 

One of my favorite scenes in movie history.

 

 

[Clark Griswold]

Ominous…

China’s Youth Unemployment Hits Record High
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2023/07/17/chinas-youth-unemployment-hits-record-high/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Biff_T]

1 hour ago, Clark Griswold said:

Ominous…

China’s Youth Unemployment Hits Record High
https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2023/07/17/chinas-youth-unemployment-hits-record-high/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Too much Johnny Rubbing and not enough women to go around.   I'd probably say fuck it as well lol.  

[Clark Griswold]

Too much Johnny Rubbing and not enough women to go around.   I'd probably say it as well lol.  

The unintended consequences of poor social policies will likely not end well

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1209713.shtml

Men (people but especially young men) need to actualize, usually thru school-work-marriage-children-family-wealth building but if none of that is available to you other more anti-social paths become attractive
We see this at every level of society, my hope is that they can find someway to channel that energy into something productive
I doubt the leaders of China will do what the “leaders” of the West are trying to do to large swaths of their young male population (mollify / distract them with legalization of narcotics, porn, identity and sexual politics / cultural issues)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Biff_T]

1 hour ago, Clark Griswold said:

The unintended consequences of poor social policies will likely not end well

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1209713.shtml

Men (people but especially young men) need to actualize, usually thru school-work-marriage-children-family-wealth building but if none of that is available to you other more anti-social paths become attractive
We see this at every level of society, my hope is that they can find someway to channel that energy into something productive
I doubt the leaders of China will do what the “leaders” of the West are trying to do to large swaths of their young male population (mollify / distract them with legalization of narcotics, porn, identity and sexual politics / cultural issues)

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They have one hell of an expendable part of the population that is ripe for a big meat grinding type of war.   A bunch of sexually frustrated Chinese dudes.   

Edit: I can see them fighting to bring those "Chinese"- American girls back home.  Somehow it will be our fault as Americans.  Lol

Edited July 17, 2023 by Biff_T
Afterthought

[arg]

On 7/15/2023 at 12:56 AM, bfargin said:

All the posturing makes me desire the simplicity of honesty by world leaders. I know that might create its own set of problems.
 

One of my favorite scenes in movie history.

 

 

Great movie but that scene was a bit corny(for you young ones that's a boomer term for melodramatic).

One of my favorite scenes.

Apologies for the highjack

[Clark Griswold]

They have one hell of an expendable part of the population that is ripe for a big meat grinding type of war.   A bunch of sexually frustrated Chinese dudes.   
Edit: I can see them fighting to bring those "Chinese"- American girls back home.  Somehow it will be our fault as Americans.  Lol

Quite possible
Angry young men told they are going to win back the honor of their nation plus amphetamines can get people to do a lot things they might not ordinarily do, I wonder how the videos coming out of Ukraine of close quarter battle, artillery barrages and the absolute horror of war is affecting the tech savvy fighting age males of China.
I imply no cowardice to them in that statement but I wonder if this is giving them the CCP pause as to would they answer the call?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HeloDude]

16 minutes ago, Clark Griswold said:

I imply no cowardice to them in that statement but I wonder if this is giving them the CCP pause as to would they answer the call?

Are you suggesting that Chinese men wouldn’t answer the call?  Ummm, China is communist…there’s no option to answer the call, they’re forced to.  Hell, our country has forced men to go to war as well.

[Clark Griswold]

Are you suggesting that Chinese men wouldn’t answer the call?  Ummm, China is communist…there’s no option to answer the call, they’re forced to.  Hell, our country has forced men to go to war as well.

No but there is resistance that can occasionally crop up even in what we think of as the most controlling systems.
If the fighting age males and their families of a lot of one child families decide that risking their only son’s life to make Taiwan part of the PRC isn’t worth it, the CCP which cares first and foremost about regime survival might not risk that internal conflict.
Putin is cremating his KIAs in Ukraine to limit the visceral effect of returning fallen soldiers to their communities and the Wagner business a couple of weeks ago are examples of dictators considering / fearing domestic unrest.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gearhog]

Good graphic summarizing the current situation around Taiwan. 

[Lawman]

Are you suggesting that Chinese men wouldn’t answer the call?  Ummm, China is communist…there’s no option to answer the call, they’re forced to.  Hell, our country has forced men to go to war as well.

China is effectively 4 countries.

While the North and Central China have held power the idea that China is this massive united population is a false impression/oversimplification.

North China is the China culture we associate as Americans when we think of China as an opponent, but they are about to go through a disaster to their economy and debt/savings structure that will make the Great Depression look mild by comparison.

And their A2AD structure works both ways, so having this collection of countries that hate you as an immediate barrier island chain able to interdict your entire coast lines importation of sea going vessels is bad for their economic model. Especially when their economy is the largest importer of pretty much ever raw material/oil/food stuffs on the planet.

We don’t even need it to go kinetic to ruin them. If you did what the world did to Russia with sanctions and market exclusion you would hobble their economy, cause upwards of 35-40% unemployment overnight and completely upend their ability to just issue state backed credit models to keep their economy churning. It would be a death sentence for their current unification and basically send them back to the 30s.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[HeloDude]

45 minutes ago, Lawman said:

North China is the China culture we associate as Americans when we think of China as an opponent, but they are about to go through a disaster to their economy and debt/savings structure that will make the Great Depression look mild by comparison.

Is this just like a year ago (in this same thread) where people told me that we were going to see massive changes in China in just a few months?…and I’m still waiting.

So when exactly will this massive economic disaster in China actually occur?  3-6 months?  6-12 months?  2-3 years? 
 

As for comparing our trade with China to our trade with Russia (pre-sanctions), this isn’t even a comparison.  Pulling a Russia on China would royally screw our economy—and no one wants that to happen.  If you’re up for some homework, count up how much money you have spent in the last 3 months on products/services which relied on some sort of trade with China.

[Lawman]

Is this just like a year ago (in this same thread) where people told me that we were going to see massive changes in China in just a few months?…and I’m still waiting.
So when exactly will this massive economic disaster in China actually occur?  3-6 months?  6-12 months?  2-3 years? 
 
As for comparing our trade with China to our trade with Russia (pre-sanctions), this isn’t even a comparison.  Pulling a Russia on China would royally screw our economy—and no one wants that to happen.  If you’re up for some homework, count up how much money you have spent in the last 3 months on products/services which relied on some sort of trade with China.

China is facing a demographic collapse which in the next 3-5 years will hollow out its “cheap labor” model. They can’t fix that, even if they wanted to it would require a massive effort that simply getting rid of the 1 child rule doesn’t meet. That will have a world wide impact as it takes full effect over the next two decades. That’s because it’s not just about their population decreasing, it is simultaneously aging so it’s an exponential curve not a linear one. Right now the people to fix the problem are all approaching 30, in a few years your big bubble of population will be too old to viably produce more than they are numbers wise let alone raise a minimum of 3 kids.

China’s cost to manufacture is now 5-6 times what it was in the last 20 years. Which is why anybody smart has been pushing to decouple from China which has put its self in as a middle man on supply chain refinement not finished manufacturing. That is fine in an export based economy so long as the music keeps going.

And no kidding we would drop a turd in the punch bowl to fight a war, the fact of it is while it would screw up our economy and trigger a lot of heartache and supply chain issues, it would completely destroy the system theirs is built on. They use their economy to keep people employed first and foremost. That keeps them from questioning the system while party centralized banking options are limited to government control which finances their whole economic loan system.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Stoker]

16 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Is this just like a year ago (in this same thread) where people told me that we were going to see massive changes in China in just a few months?…and I’m still waiting.

So when exactly will this massive economic disaster in China actually occur?  3-6 months?  6-12 months?  2-3 years? 

Their stated youth unemployment rate is 21%, compared to ours at 9%. And it's probably worse than that behind the CCP's lie machine. That's a disaster. That's tens of millions of people in the most formative years of their lives, disassociating from the system. It's a human tragedy in and of itself, but it's also a recipe for absolute chaos in the future. 

[ClearedHot]

More and more data points indicate China is in deep shit with few options to escape the situation.  The population issues have been covered above and the latest economic numbers continue seem to confirm many of the predictions.  Based on July economic data it would appear they just entered deflation as consumption has not rebounded post COVID.  Imports and exports have dropped by double digits as compared to this time last year.  Since 2017 birth rate has dropped 40% which will only add to their long-term consumption issues.  This is going to be a wild ride.

[Biff_T]

2 hours ago, ClearedHot said:

More and more data points indicate China is in deep shit with few options to escape the situation.  The population issues have been covered above and the latest economic numbers continue seem to confirm many of the predictions.  Based on July economic data it would appear they just entered deflation as consumption has not rebounded post COVID.  Imports and exports have dropped by double digits as compared to this time last year.  Since 2017 birth rate has dropped 40% which will only add to their long-term consumption issues.  This is going to be a wild ride.

Yeap.  We're watching history being written.  "This is how WW3 started and such".   I tell people to read history to learn from it.  They laugh and say it will never happen again.  Lol silly humans.      I cant believe how many ignorant people we have on this planet.  Its like, somehow we're different than the humans in the past.. News Flash!! THEY ALSO SAID IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN TO THEM.  I dont think I've ever typed in all caps.

Get ready man...

I  really hope I am wrong and belong in a looney bin..I just cant hide what I'm seeing on a daily basis.

 

America that I loved died on Sept, 11, 2001.  

Edited August 11, 2023 by Biff_T

[Lawman]

Yeap.  We're watching history being written.  "This is how WW3 started and such".   I tell people to read history to learn from it.  They laugh and say it will never happen again.  Lol silly humans.      I cant believe how many ignorant people we have on this planet.  Its like, somehow we're different than the humans in the past.. News Flash!! THEY ALSO SAID IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN TO THEM.  I dont think I've ever typed in all caps.
Get ready man...
I  really hope I am wrong and belong in a looney bin..I just cant hide what I'm seeing on a daily basis.
 
America that I loved died on Sept, 11, 2001.  

Yes, being isolationist in our foreign policy and allowing autocrats to take what they want is exactly how you prevent a World War…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gearhog]

1 hour ago, Lawman said:

Yes, being isolationist in our foreign policy and allowing autocrats to take what they want is exactly how you prevent a World War…


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sorta makes you wonder if there's any middle ground between being isolationist and being continuously engaged in foreign conflicts for 20 plus years.

[Lawman]

Sorta makes you wonder if there's any middle ground between being isolationist and being continuously engaged in foreign conflicts for 20 plus years.

We’ve been “continuously engaged” in conflicts since the end of the 2nd World War.

To pretend that conflict is or hasn’t been an ever present part of human existence the entire time it’s been around is just bold faced ignorance bought from a position of insulated relaxation of not having to see the sausage get made. Somehow those little brush fire wars didn’t devolve into the end of civilization or industrialized warfare on a global scale.

Again, the person I’m responding to has repeatedly over and over suggested that it’s not our place or responsibility to do anything about an autocratic land-grab via direct open conflict in Europe. Peace in our time so to speak. Yeah we’ve seen how that plays out before.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[gearhog]

11 hours ago, Lawman said:

We’ve been “continuously engaged” in conflicts since the end of the 2nd World War.

To pretend that conflict is or hasn’t been an ever present part of human existence the entire time it’s been around is just bold faced ignorance bought from a position of insulated relaxation of not having to see the sausage get made. Somehow those little brush fire wars didn’t devolve into the end of civilization or industrialized warfare on a global scale.

Again, the person I’m responding to has repeatedly over and over suggested that it’s not our place or responsibility to do anything about an autocratic land-grab via direct open conflict in Europe. Peace in our time so to speak. Yeah we’ve seen how that plays out before.

That's a straw man argument. No one said or pretended there's been a time without any human conflict.

You seem to be saying any conflict is acceptable because that's simply how the sausage gets made. Don't you see the irony in prefacing that with calling any other position "bold faced ignorance brought from a position of insulated relaxation"? I gotta give you credit, however. That's the strangest insult I've ever been given here, and many attempts have been made. You seem to be an astute student of history. Maybe review what you're calling an autocratic land-grab to avoid any appearances of ignorance or irony.

I'm sure most of us here have seen the (if I may substitute) "freedom and democracy" getting made. One of my many memories is Capt Matt August. Three helos landed behind our Herc one night in Baghdad. His buddies carried him up the ramp and placed him into the HR container. The sight of 12-15 Army dudes, all arms around someone else's shoulders, crying standing there with my crew and I,while a Chaplain shouted his impromptu memorial service and prayers above the noise of the GTC (APU) is a memory I won't forget. I'm sure It didn't seem like a "little brush fire" to those who knew him and I would be hesitant to dismiss it as such.

I just spent a day at the new WWII museum in New Orleans last Saturday. Absolutely fanastic. Highly recommended. It was good to be reminded how much resistance there was to enter the war until the pre-conditions crossed a relatively high threshold. And it when they did, it was a monumental effort of which the entire country was behind, designed to achieve a quick and decisive victory.

I'm not a peacenik against all war. My contention is our current pre-conditions and thresholds for engaging, or continuing to engage, in foreign conflicts are often too low or for the wrong reasons, not that there shouldn't be any conflict.

Edited August 12, 2023 by gearhog