China & Chinese Shenanigans

[Lord Ratner]

11 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

One of the candidates thinks that Taiwan should pay us tit-for-tat for defending them, so that speech isn’t going to happen. The other…who can say what their position is on anything. Good luck with any strategic words on the matter. Our country has no strategy.

That's not *entirely* true. 

 

Bringing <4nm chip production on-shore is a pretty humongous move. Remember than for the past 20 years "the West" has felt no need to control any portion of this capacity, even though the EUV machines used to make the chips are developed in Europe. Cheap labor has won every single geopolitical argument since the Berlin Wall fell.

 

That might not be the strategy people who are interested in a free Taiwan want to see, but removing the primary leverage point of the Chinese is a big move. If we get close enough to a functional chip-fab in the US, then on day one of the Chinese assault on Taiwan we can pull a Ukraine (keep arming the Taiwanese to resist and erode the Chinese military), maintain chip production at home to keep the (Western) economy from imploding, and put a big pile of dynamite on the TSMC fabricators in case the Chinese succeed. 

[Clark Griswold]

15 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

One of the candidates thinks that Taiwan should pay us tit-for-tat for defending them, so that speech isn’t going to happen. The other…who can say what their position is on anything. Good luck with any strategic words on the matter. Our country has no strategy.

Our strategy is organic synergistic transformative multi lateral culturally aware inclusive innovation that will allow holistic and sustainable development thus deterring nihilistic sociopaths with WMD and massive advanced military capabilities.  
But on a lighter note, I’m not sure our current form of government populated by ever less impressive elected officials and aloof permanent bureaucrats can form a consistent strategy to meet the challenge of the rising authoritarian civilizational states of the East.  We change the crew every few years and we wonder how we can’t get on course let alone stay there and that course is not one that the majority seem to want.
Another lament on the state of the democratic republic in the West with no obvious answer but I fear as inept and inefficient as our adversaries sometimes are, their relentlessness may prove decisive versus our system.  
But… we have to get busy building an arsenal to win in several places at once, seriously develop homeland defenses and prepare and convince our people why we should.  Not holding my breath but posting on BO 

[M2]

China’s Joint Sword-2024B Demonstrates Ability to Rapidly Encircle Taiwan

On October 14, 2024, China launched large-scale joint military and law enforcement operations
encircling Taiwan in response to a recent speech by Taiwan President Lai Ching-te on October 10.
Called Joint Sword-2024B, the exercises involved a record number of Chinese military aircraft and likely coast guard assets operating around the island in a single day, as well as a likely intentional and novel information domain component in which dozens of foreign defense officials reportedly visited the Chinese military command that organized the exercise. This is the third Joint Sword exercise and the second that China has conducted in 2024. Taken together, all three exercises demonstrate a maturing (at least in a peacetime context) Chinese military and law enforcement capability to rapidly initiate operations that entirely surround and aim to exercise control over Taiwan.

Overall, despite some de-escalation characteristics, the October 14 drills likely represent an escalation in comparison to past Joint Sword exercises, particularly given the number of aircraft and law enforcement ships involved in Joint Sword-2024B and its likely greater encroachment upon Taiwan’s contiguous zone. China’s response to Lai’s remarks, which were likely intended to show “restraint,” suggest China is unlikely to cease military coercion of Taiwan unless Lai makes a significant and very unlikely shift in his policies, to include openly embracing the concept that there is only “one China” (i.e., the 1992 Consensus). Additionally, China implemented new sanctions against  two individuals and one organization engaged in perceived “independence” activities in Taiwan.

(See full report attached)

[GIS-2024-1015] China’s Joint Sword-2024B Demonstrates Ability to Rapidly Encircle Taiwan.pdf

[SurelySerious]

China’s Joint Sword-2024B Demonstrates Ability to Rapidly Encircle Taiwan

On October 14, 2024, China launched large-scale joint military and law enforcement operations
encircling Taiwan in response to a recent speech by Taiwan President Lai Ching-te on October 10.
Called Joint Sword-2024B, the exercises involved a record number of Chinese military aircraft and likely coast guard assets operating around the island in a single day, as well as a likely intentional and novel information domain component in which dozens of foreign defense officials reportedly visited the Chinese military command that organized the exercise. This is the third Joint Sword exercise and the second that China has conducted in 2024. Taken together, all three exercises demonstrate a maturing (at least in a peacetime context) Chinese military and law enforcement capability to rapidly initiate operations that entirely surround and aim to exercise control over Taiwan.

Overall, despite some de-escalation characteristics, the October 14 drills likely represent an escalation in comparison to past Joint Sword exercises, particularly given the number of aircraft and law enforcement ships involved in Joint Sword-2024B and its likely greater encroachment upon Taiwan’s contiguous zone. China’s response to Lai’s remarks, which were likely intended to show “restraint,” suggest China is unlikely to cease military coercion of Taiwan unless Lai makes a significant and very unlikely shift in his policies, to include openly embracing the concept that there is only “one China” (i.e., the 1992 Consensus). Additionally, China implemented new sanctions against  two individuals and one organization engaged in perceived “independence” activities in Taiwan.

(See full report attached)
[GIS-2024-1015] China’s Joint Sword-2024B Demonstrates Ability to Rapidly Encircle Taiwan.pdf

Ah yes, “law enforcement.” Hope INDOPACOM was watching closely.

[Clark Griswold]

Worth a listen

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[ClearedHot]

Peter Zeihan has been calling this one for some time.  It looks like massive deflation and with 70% of the average Chinese citizens savings is in real estate it is going to be ugly.

The Quarter-Trillion-Dollar Rush to Get Money Out of China