China & Chinese Shenanigans

[Clark Griswold]

Another in the WW3 series, Taiwan focused

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[SurelySerious]

It's amazing that not that long ago (or am I getting old?) that China had the 1 child policy and overpopulation was a real fear for them.

Ten years ago, probably. Central planning finally realized nearly forty years of families having 20% more males might not be a good thing.

[Clark Griswold]

Ten years ago, probably. Central planning finally realized nearly forty years of families having 20% more males might not be a good thing.

Don’t worry when fighting age males don’t have jobs, sex or a future it’ll all work out peacefully


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[Biff_T]

3 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

Don’t worry when fighting age males don’t have jobs, sex or a future it’ll all work out peacefully

Kinda like San Francisco 

[bfargin]

5 hours ago, SurelySerious said:

Ten years ago, probably. Central planning finally realized nearly forty years of families having 20% more males might not be a good thing.

Officially ended in 2016, but even before that Chinese men were going to nearby Asian countries to find wives. It took the CCP officials a little longer to see the impact of their bad policies. I was in Vietnam in 2013 for a while, and saw tons of Chinese men shopping for wives in both Hanoi and Saigon.

[pbar]

On 4/5/2025 at 12:52 PM, Clark Griswold said:

Not a short read but a reasonable idea of what the PLA might have gamed out themselves on what an invasion would look like

https://cimsec.org/island-blitz-a-campaign-analysis-of-a-taiwan-takeover-by-the-pla/

The longer the operation takes the longer you have to lose, Russia proved that and the PLA has got to see that from their perspective.

Focus on port seizure, short but intense airspace corridor denial, establish naval blockade in the Luzon straight and Northeastern approaches
50/50 at that point


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I was not impressed with the will to fight, or lack thereof, my Taiwanese F-16 pilot classmate displayed (at the ROKAF Staff College), albeit that is a sample size of one (and this is before the Hong Kong crackdown, which probably stiffened some spines in Taiwan).  However, I wonder what the will to fight is among the Taiwanese military and civilian population now.  I wonder how it would stand up to a massive PRC missile barrage and a naval minelaying campaign, both of which could happen before we could intervene...  

[Clark Griswold]

I was not impressed with the will to fight, or lack thereof, my Taiwanese F-16 pilot classmate displayed (at the ROKAF Staff College), albeit that is a sample size of one (and this is before the Hong Kong crackdown, which probably stiffened some spines in Taiwan).  However, I wonder what the will to fight is among the Taiwanese military and civilian population now.  I wonder how it would stand up to a massive PRC missile barrage and a naval minelaying campaign, both of which could happen before we could intervene...  

Yup that’s a huge factor.
The brass balls of Ukrainian military personnel and civilians who ran towards the aggressors is what we all hope for in our people, how do you gauge the potential for that beyond surveying, personal contact and professional observation is beyond me. Probably someone has meaningful sociological/psychological research into this, probably classified, don’t know.
I think that idea, the will to fight, as an aggressor or as a defender, might be an equal concern for both sides. Chinese people travel a good bit, have relatives in the West, interact with Westerners and have relationships with the Taiwanese, they may not be interested in fight. That might be the opinion of the rank and file, also their families, how hard the CCP would go to suppress and intimidate that to prevent mutiny, IDK but probably methinks they are nervous about it. The CCP would rather postpone the invasion than cause internal instability.
Taiwan, I think it (the will to fight) would depend on if they see the West dithering after a few days, if we haven’t said screw it we’re in after 72 hours or so, I think despair could set in.
That’s a short window but given what the fight is likely to be, we probably have to jump in immediately.


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