China & Chinese Shenanigans

[HeloDude]

32 minutes ago, Prozac said:

Why are we so quick to let China set that particular narrative? Shouldn’t it be more like: China is not about ready to invade Taiwan because the USA, upon which their economy is absolutely dependent, has publicly committed to the defense of the island? Your argument is a good one, but it goes both ways. 

Did I not say that it’s China’s to take if they want it?  If they’re not wanting to take the island it’s because it’s not their interests to do so right now (it would cost them resources, etc)—they’re not worried about the US stopping them.  Also, if you think the US would do anything meaningful to defend Taiwan then we’re in complete disagreement (go figure).  

Edited to add:  Sorry if that came across brash—I’m tired and haven’t had dinner yet.  My points still stand.

Edited July 29, 2021 by HeloDude

[Prozac]

2 hours ago, HeloDude said:

Did I not say that it’s China’s to take if they want it?  If they’re not wanting to take the island it’s because it’s not their interests to do so right now (it would cost them resources, etc)—they’re not worried about the US stopping them.  Also, if you think the US would do anything meaningful to defend Taiwan then we’re in complete disagreement (go figure).  

Edited to add:  Sorry if that came across brash—I’m tired and haven’t had dinner yet.  My points still stand.

Brash? On the internets? Say it ain’t so! I don’t necessarily disagree with you man. I just think that we can just as easily get into China’s head on this one. If they think there’s even a chance that we might intervene it might be enough to deter them from acting. Enjoy your dinner…..just finished mine and am currently tipping back a couple. Cheers! 🍻 

[Negatory]

8 hours ago, HeloDude said:

What do you mean “US as the only additional player”?  We wouldn’t militarily intervene, and wouldn’t do too much other than some minor sanctions.  We’re not about ready to go to war/fire on a country in which our economy is so closely tied.

See the 2014 annexation of Crimea. I promise we militarily had all the ability in the world to combat Russia conventionally. But that’s not how it’s going to happen.

[Clark Griswold]

On 7/28/2021 at 2:32 PM, HeloDude said:

What do you mean “US as the only additional player”?  We wouldn’t militarily intervene, and wouldn’t do too much other than some minor sanctions.  We’re not about ready to go to war/fire on a country in which our economy is so closely tied.

One would think but history has examples where trading partners eschew their economic relations to try to change the geo-political landscape to their advantage, ref the trading relations of pre-WW1 Europe

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/chimera-economic-interdependence

Beating them to the punch is becoming more and more likely to me the best COA to avoid a shooting war with at best a 50/50 chance we prevent the conquest of Taiwan.  I would lean extremely hard on others to participate also, UK-Aussies-SK-Indians-Germans-French-etc... but if necessary we go it alone

There is risk, it won't be cheap and convincing the American public will take time but you stand up to Biff or you do his homework forever.

[FLEA]

6 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

One would think but history has examples where trading partners eschew their economic relations to try to change the geo-political landscape to their advantage, ref the trading relations of pre-WW1 Europe

https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/chimera-economic-interdependence

Beating them to the punch is becoming more and more likely to me the best COA to avoid a shooting war with at best a 50/50 chance we prevent the conquest of Taiwan.  I would lean extremely hard on others to participate also, UK-Aussies-SK-Indians-Germans-French-etc... but if necessary we go it alone

There is risk, it won't be cheap and convincing the American public will take time but you stand up to Biff or you do his homework forever.

If the US commits full military power we have much better odds than 50/50 largely due to a competent partner and superb maritime terrain. 

If we half ass it with this limited war, train/advise/equip only bullshit, you are probably right. 

I also think we would get relatively strong support from other Pacific partners who would use a victory to cement favorable surrender conditions to their own disputes with China. 

[Clark Griswold]

5 hours ago, FLEA said:

If the US commits full military power we have much better odds than 50/50 largely due to a competent partner and superb maritime terrain. 

If we half ass it with this limited war, train/advise/equip only bullshit, you are probably right. 

I also think we would get relatively strong support from other Pacific partners who would use a victory to cement favorable surrender conditions to their own disputes with China. 

Legitimate points, I would further contextualize my sober assessment of our odds at 50/50 with further growth in their direct military capabilities and indirect capabilities (cyber, info, diplomatic, financial, etc) - give it 3 years on this trajectory and they would be foolish not to try particularly with the cowardly and weak kneed responses to their recent major provocations and outrages (Uighurs, Hong Kong, COVID, etc..).  

They know the world is intimidated by them and the US is hamstrung by it's own business community that sold the farm to China years ago and would likely try to pull back the government of the US from a forceful response.  Hence my belief that breaking the current situation of strategic ambiguity is actually short term provocative and risky to be fair but long term actually stabilizing.  Rip the Band-Aid off, hurts like hell initially but settles the problem quickly and permanently.

But what do the Taiwanese think or want?  Doesn't look like they want Mill's (Deterring the Dragon article author) proposal but if they really really start to believe the PLA is coming this time, they might change their tunes. 

https://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/returning-american-troops-to-taiwan-will-only-entrap-the-us-20514

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4015784

By then I think unless we are on the island hopefully to deter thru some serious pucker factor brinksmanship, I don't know how we stop them once they establish a naval blockade, have CAPs over the island and have taken the small islands of Penghu just west of Formosa, massing troops and ships for invasion.  They would insist we are aggressing and escalating as we started our response, my bet is the rest of the world would navel gaze and we would keep assets at the ready and near but not engage while the financial markets go into cardiac arrest.  Our CAPs and surface fleets at least would stay outside of whatever quarantine zone they would declare while the cyber, financial, diplomatic and information war would start.  Just my uneducated yet to finish AWC guess but if we didn't respond kinetically within 72 hours of their first actions, we would not fire a shot ever.  They would have shifted environment, the chatter would move to acceptance and de-escalation.  

At some point, the free market, rule of law, representative democracies will have to defend the "red lines" they have said exist that the autocracies are pushing and crossing, weakness encourages aggression and they smell weakness with our inability to decisively end conflicts in our favor morality aside, with our tepid responses to cyber attack and disinformation, our cultural self-immolation and our reckless debt accumulation.  This to me is way to say no further.

[FLEA]

3 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

Legitimate points, I would further contextualize my sober assessment of our odds at 50/50 with further growth in their direct military capabilities and indirect capabilities (cyber, info, diplomatic, financial, etc) - give it 3 years on this trajectory and they would be foolish not to try particularly with the cowardly and weak kneed responses to their recent major provocations and outrages (Uighurs, Hong Kong, COVID, etc..).  

They know the world is intimidated by them and the US is hamstrung by it's own business community that sold the farm to China years ago and would likely try to pull back the government of the US from a forceful response.  Hence my belief that breaking the current situation of strategic ambiguity is actually short term provocative and risky to be fair but long term actually stabilizing.  Rip the Band-Aid off, hurts like hell initially but settles the problem quickly and permanently.

But what do the Taiwanese think or want?  Doesn't look like they want Mill's (Deterring the Dragon article author) proposal but if they really really start to believe the PLA is coming this time, they might change their tunes. 

https://www.chinausfocus.com/peace-security/returning-american-troops-to-taiwan-will-only-entrap-the-us-20514

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4015784

By then I think unless we are on the island hopefully to deter thru some serious pucker factor brinksmanship, I don't know how we stop them once they establish a naval blockade, have CAPs over the island and have taken the small islands of Penghu just west of Formosa, massing troops and ships for invasion.  They would insist we are aggressing and escalating as we started our response, my bet is the rest of the world would navel gaze and we would keep assets at the ready and near but not engage while the financial markets go into cardiac arrest.  Our CAPs and surface fleets at least would stay outside of whatever quarantine zone they would declare while the cyber, financial, diplomatic and information war would start.  Just my uneducated yet to finish AWC guess but if we didn't respond kinetically within 72 hours of their first actions, we would not fire a shot ever.  They would have shifted environment, the chatter would move to acceptance and de-escalation.  

At some point, the free market, rule of law, representative democracies will have to defend the "red lines" they have said exist that the autocracies are pushing and crossing, weakness encourages aggression and they smell weakness with our inability to decisively end conflicts in our favor morality aside, with our tepid responses to cyber attack and disinformation, our cultural self-immolation and our reckless debt accumulation.  This to me is way to say no further.

Your points on timing are spot on. We would need to act with a hasteful resolve that I don't think our political processes will ideally support. 

That said, not all is lost. Sea conditions only support amphibious operations few weeks a year. Possibly even less if using modified civilian transport as China is. And the number of troops they would need to amass to achieve a 3-to-1 force ratio will be enormous. Enough to provide indications and warning for sure. So it's possible we can see it happening well in advance and our absolute best response would be to put a large enough contingent of US ground forces on the island "for exercises" that gives us the political legitimacy to enter the conflict quickly is China attacks them. This would also possibly deter China, knowing that possible outcome. 

[Clark Griswold]

On 8/2/2021 at 1:40 AM, FLEA said:

Your points on timing are spot on. We would need to act with a hasteful resolve that I don't think our political processes will ideally support. 

That said, not all is lost. Sea conditions only support amphibious operations few weeks a year. Possibly even less if using modified civilian transport as China is. And the number of troops they would need to amass to achieve a 3-to-1 force ratio will be enormous. Enough to provide indications and warning for sure. So it's possible we can see it happening well in advance and our absolute best response would be to put a large enough contingent of US ground forces on the island "for exercises" that gives us the political legitimacy to enter the conflict quickly is China attacks them. This would also possibly deter China, knowing that possible outcome. 

True - they have numbers but the going is not the best for them assuming a somewhat conventional amphibious invasion of Taiwan

Articles on the subject / conjecture of how the PLA et al would carry out an invasion, one article is a bit dated considering the growth in the size and capabilities of the PRC but the fundamental points (terrain, a phased operation, limited windows of opportunity) remain relevant.

https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/why-a-taiwan-invasion-would-look-nothing-like-d-day/

https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2535&context=nwc-review

Reading the second article I found this particularly interesting since we both agree that timing is the secret sauce if you wanted to carry out this aggression:

The Chinese would also have to contend with two monsoon seasons, from August to September and from November to April; it would be restricted to two “windows” of attack, from May to July and the month of October.

The month of October particularly towards the end of the month would be intriguing to me if I were a PLA military strategist to begin as the US would be going into a major electoral period every two to four years and the political competition would likely become another impediment to quick resolve and decisive action to intervene and assist the Taiwanese. 

[Majestik Møøse]

Just give Taiwan some nukes. Done

[Clark Griswold]

1 hour ago, Majestik Møøse said:

Just give Taiwan some nukes. Done

Negative Ghostrider

They (PRC) would just then give them to Iran as a retort to our move and runs counter to the overall strategy of non-proliferation.  They could arm or deploy nukes just to threaten us to piss us off other areas also, Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 would be my choice if I were the PRC, you've nuclearly armed Taiwan, I just put 100 hypersonic nuclear tipped missiles on Cuba, enjoy.

That might be a pipe dream (non-proliferation) but we are trying to stick with it so conventional deterrence it is. 

[Majestik Møøse]

10 hours ago, Clark Griswold said:

Negative Ghostrider

They (PRC) would just then give them to Iran as a retort to our move and runs counter to the overall strategy of non-proliferation.  They could arm or deploy nukes just to threaten us to piss us off other areas also, Cuban Missile Crisis 2.0 would be my choice if I were the PRC, you've nuclearly armed Taiwan, I just put 100 hypersonic nuclear tipped missiles on Cuba, enjoy.

That might be a pipe dream (non-proliferation) but we are trying to stick with it so conventional deterrence it is. 

Nah, Iran knows it’d get nuked immediately by the world’s first and last Jewish/Arab coalition and Cuba would quickly be like “I’m actually good fam, communism ain’t worth that shit”

[Clark Griswold]

45 minutes ago, Majestik Møøse said:

Nah, Iran knows it’d get nuked immediately by the world’s first and last Jewish/Arab coalition and Cuba would quickly be like “I’m actually good fam, communism ain’t worth that shit”

Ha - I wish they would admit that and get with the program 

[AirGuardianC141747]

On 8/9/2021 at 8:47 AM, Majestik Møøse said:

Just give Taiwan some nukes. Done

Just make sure you let Taiwan know when I’m not in either country. Wu Han was nice the other day. I’m sure they didn’t want to take me on a Lab Tour. Maybe Doc Fauci could be my guide.

[gearhog]

Blood in the water:

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231636.shtml

[pawnman]

2 hours ago, torqued said:

Blood in the water:

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231636.shtml

I wish I could say that they're wrong.  

[FLEA]

1 hour ago, pawnman said:

I wish I could say that they're wrong.  

The US needs to retake the narrative here. We didn't let Afghanistan down. Afghanistan let us down by taking 20 years of commitment and throwing it down the toilet. 

Repaint this. Taiwan knows they can get our support for 20 years even if they half ass their job as a partner. That's a pretty solid commitment. 

 

[Majestik Møøse]

Huh. China recognizes the name “Taiwan” and equates themselves with the Taliban all in one post. Thought their propagandists would be smarter. 
 

Also, you bet your ass I’m going to war over China attempting to take Taiwan. The PRC are a bunch of fucks and they need to keep that shit in China.

[Prozac]

Can’t wait to see what the Chinese experience in Afghanistan looks like. Like Moose above, I’m surprised at how willing they appear to be to work with the taliban. They don’t exactly have a history of embracing radical (or not so radical) Muslim groups in their hinterlands. An “Islamic State of Afghanistan” in a country that they see as a geographic key to their belt and road initiative poses a lot of problems for them. Afghanistan has repeatedly proven to be a major resource suck for the world’s great powers. China may find that they just can’t build as many islands as they used to once they’re embroiled in the Afghanistan quagmire. 

[gearhog]

Senator John Cornyn tweeted that we had 30,000 troops in Taiwan. He deleted the Tweet, but China didn't like it.

China is also holding live-fire exercises and making even larger incursions into Taiwan airspace today: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/17/china-holds-live-fire-exercises-near-taiwan-response-provocations?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=soc_568&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1629225077

[ViperMan]

3 hours ago, Prozac said:

Can’t wait to see what the Chinese experience in Afghanistan looks like. Like Moose above, I’m surprised at how willing they appear to be to work with the taliban. They don’t exactly have a history of embracing radical (or not so radical) Muslim groups in their hinterlands. An “Islamic State of Afghanistan” in a country that they see as a geographic key to their belt and road initiative poses a lot of problems for them. Afghanistan has repeatedly proven to be a major resource suck for the world’s great powers. China may find that they just can’t build as many islands as they used to once they’re embroiled in the Afghanistan quagmire. 

It won't be like ours. Our experience was handicapped by a restrictive ROE built on the Western concept of morality as well as a false-notion that these people want to be like us, which led to us attempting to nation build. China holds no such illusions and therefore won't be constrained by any self-imposed rules. They'll crush whoever stands in their way and won't think twice.

[Prozac]

1 minute ago, ViperMan said:

It won't be like ours. Our experience was handicapped by a restrictive ROE built on the Western concept of morality as well as a false-notion that these people want to be like us, which led to us attempting to nation build. China holds no such illusions and therefore won't be constrained by any self-imposed rules. They'll crush whoever stands in their way and won't think twice.

The Soviets sure as shit didn’t have any restrictive ROE and they couldn’t civilize that place. The Chinese, in my experience, are a clown show & I can’t see them doing much better. 

[El Duderino]

Did I miss a fight brewing between China and the Taliban? I thought China’s interest was working out an economic deal with them. 

[uhhello]

2 hours ago, Prozac said:

The Soviets sure as shit didn’t have any restrictive ROE and they couldn’t civilize that place. The Chinese, in my experience, are a clown show & I can’t see them doing much better. 

Reference the Indian Chinese anchorman style brawl at the border. 

[pawnman]

2 hours ago, ViperMan said:

It won't be like ours. Our experience was handicapped by a restrictive ROE built on the Western concept of morality as well as a false-notion that these people want to be like us, which led to us attempting to nation build. China holds no such illusions and therefore won't be constrained by any self-imposed rules. They'll crush whoever stands in their way and won't think twice.

They won't be the first to think that way, and they likely won't be the last. 

Again...I wish them all the success we had there.  I don't see them "conquering" Afghanistan short of killing every man, woman, and child in the country and moving Chinese citizens in. 

[Lawman]

The Soviets sure as shit didn’t have any restrictive ROE and they couldn’t civilize that place. The Chinese, in my experience, are a clown show & I can’t see them doing much better. 

The Soviets faced an enemy being funded and equipped by a Super Power.

They were actually doing very decently at establishing Area security until we started pouring billions in aid and weapons via Pakistan and other illicit avenues. It was “order from underneath a boot,” no doubt, but that’s not an unusual place to be for a Communist country.


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