How much does the local housing market change when an aircraft fleet leaves a base?

[TLAR]

When an aircraft fleet is moving bases or otherwise going away, I imagine the 100's of families leaving as well will affect the local housing market. Am I going to have trouble selling or renting my house? Obvious answer seems like yes, but how bad will it be, and should I/could I do something 1-2 years in advance? (like sell early and rent my own house before it happens)

Anyone go through something like this?

[hindsight2020]

when bases close? If in one-trick pony towns then yeah, might as well mail the keys to the bank. It's called the music stops without a musical chair. This is not just a dynamic seen during military closings, when energy sector tanks, these remote locales lose population overnight and the local housing market crashes.

I'd never get caught dead owning property in places like Clovis NM. If I couldn't find rentals, I'd just set up the family in the proverbial Lubbock and geo-bash. Seriously.

[ak47]

Plumas Lake?

[TLAR]

Yup...

[Spoo]

I'd hazard a guess that IF the fleet your thinking of departs, it won't affect that area as dramatically as you fear. There's a LOT more going on in and around that area than say a Clovis or other isolated base. I'd say you have as much to fear from buying in a known flood plain than anything else.

Edited February 6, 2014 by Spoo

[morenoj135]

Back in the day there were rumors of the USAF wanting to consolidate ISR at Beale. Those of us at Offutt in the RJ found that the housing market took a serious dump. I ended losing over $18K on a house when we got orders to PCS. We ended up selling to a guy who worked for Union Pacific. So, buying is a risk but just as we lost on this deal we cleaned up in the DC area.

[Lawman]

In a lot of ways housing markets get way over inflated by military activity.

Example: Enterprise Alabama down by Ft Rucker. I can get the same size house in Colorado Springs for typically 10-20 grand cheaper and not live in the asshole of lower Alabama peanut country. Lots of town homes and other condo type single officer rental construction going on over the last decade. Problem is they cut training class sizes in half and now a lot of rentals are cutting way way down in asking price because of the number of empty units saturating the market.

If your thinking of buying a place and depending on other people to pay your mortgage after you PCS I would caution you to look at the local economy in depth. Even wright patt isn't somewhere I'd buy a house just because GM left dayton hanging when they pulled the big plants about 5-6 years ago. Meanwhile an are like Ft Walton is always gonna have a tourism market.

[Breckey]

But Enterprise has the Boll Weevil monument! #1 activity on Trip Advisor.