What stocks/ETFs are you investing in?

[AnimalMother]

Sounds like a good deal...honestly.

What kind of recommendations are they giving? Stocks/options/ETFs? Returns? The whole market has been pretty bullish the last couple years...

Porter usually puts 1 or 2 stock recommendations in his monthly newsletter. He's a diehard contrarian and usually does a pretty good job of finding assets with potential in beaten down sectors. His team also has some rock solid options trading strategies which I've started using, took my options trading to a whole new level. His strategy is writing naked puts though, so you'll usually need at least 25k in a margin account that allows you to make such trades. USAA is terrible BTW.

His latest recommendation is long NRB and short TSLA, but overall he is very bearish now. I understand the bull run of the last 5 years has been generating significant returns, but there are still good plays out there and still some room to run, but it's probably time to start sprinkling some downside protection around your portfolio.

In the end, I used to think that going at it on my own was all I needed. I suffered some gains and some losses but finally figured I might as well give something else a try. It's virtually impossible to accomplish the level of research that Porter's team accomplishes on your own. Overall I think it's worth the money. I'm not a paid advertiser, I'm trying to offer genuine suggestions to guys to help them out with their finances because, believe it or not, I really care about the guys I work with (Military in general) and I would like to see them succeed. It's not a panacea and it comes with no guarantees, but it might help to provide some additional information/options.

PM me if you want and I'll be happy to send you a copy of his latest newsletter.

[HerkStud]

Anybody know of any good services for how to invest you tsp?

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[nunya]

I've been following https://www.tspallocation.com/ for a few months. I like his analysis. He's been S fund for the entire time I've been following him. He follows the business cycle investing theory, like Fidelity talks about here.

[ComingLeft]

I sold 5 call options today on Amazon.com that I bought on Friday afternoon. Made your bi-monthly paycheck in 8 market hours.

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[MilitaryToFinance]

His team also has some rock solid options trading strategies which I've started using, took my options trading to a whole new level. His strategy is writing naked puts though, so you'll usually need at least 25k in a margin account that allows you to make such trades.

This works great in a bull market but do you have any idea what negative gamma can do to a portfolio when you're wrong? There are lots of former traders out there who used a similar strategy.

[AnimalMother]

This works great in a bull market but do you have any idea what negative gamma can do to a portfolio when you're wrong? There are lots of former traders out there who used a similar strategy.

Did you actually read the entire stragety to come to that conclusion or are you just blindly throwing spears? It actually works very well, if not better, in a bear market.

[MilitaryToFinance]

Did you actually read the entire stragety to come to that conclusion or are you just blindly throwing spears? It actually works very well, if not better, in a bear market.

I don't need to read the newsletter to know the inherent danger of shorting naked puts. If you don't know what gamma is or understand why negative gamma is incredibly dangerous in a portfolio you have no business trading options. Lots of people thought it was a great idea in early 1987. They thought it was a great idea during the tech bubble too. Then the market plunges, the IV explodes, your negative gamma makes the options explode in your face and you end up with not just a $0 balance but a very negative balance when the margin calls start rolling in.

Options are not inherently dangerous and there are lots of good strategies retail investors can use with options to enhance their portfolio returns. However retail investors shorting naked puts is not one of those strategies.

Edited July 4, 2014 by mappleby

[ComingLeft]

AnimalMother,

I have the account balance to do naked options; however, I am with mappleby on this one. You need to know what you are getting into. I think the GREEKS are over emphasized, but you need to know how to read the charts well. The red flag is when you suggest starting with the minimum balance required for a lottery ticket style of investment.

Investing is like flying or practicing medicine. You can get hurt if you do not start slow and with an instructor/mentor. For 25k you can rent some fast airplanes but they make lousy trainers or first solos. This has been a bull market for several years now. Please do not confuse an easy trading market with a brilliant system. This is not an Internet pissing contest, but real portfolio assuring advice.

If you know how to predict rising, falling, and flat daily and intraday movement because of this newsletter, then it is good. If you need the newsletter as a crutch to trade, then don't plan on being able to retire. Finally, those are trading strategies to build capital for income generating trades, such as covered calls, that can accept millions of dollars without moving the market.

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[AnimalMother]

Let me just take a minute to clear some things up. First, never suggested that you should acquire the min balance and then just go nuts. All I said was that in order to trade naked options and/or trade on margin, your brokerage will probably require a minimum balance, for my situation, that min balance was 25k. Second, I totally agree. People need to be careful and really understand what they are doing with their money. I highly recommend that people take a vested interest in economics, portfolio management, etc. after all, it's your hard earned money, you should want to know the details of where it goes/what it does. This is why, instead of recommending random ticker symbols circa 2000, I recommended an investment advisory/education approach (reference the original post). Most people who have car problems take their car to a professional and pay money for them to fix it. Few people seem to see the same value in learning how to manage their money. I finally did and highly recommend the same approach for others. Find one that works for you and realize that yes, it probably is worth the money. I merely suggested the one I use as a place to start, despite its incredibly radical slant.

As for the specific investment strategy we are discussing, I said it involves selling naked puts, but there's more to it than that. I was hoping people would have a little curiosity to investigate it on their own, after all, there is no such thing as teaching. It has worked very well for me, reduces my overall portfolio risk, and generates a decent level of return on my free capital. Finally, please understand that I'm not advocating the lottery approach to investing at all. Furthermore, I really do care that the folks I work with (even Internet colleagues) take a serious interest in their finances. I'm tired of seeing senior airmen driving around in brand new BMWs and then ending up broke. Financial education is incredibly important but seems to be generally ignored in our society. I was/am attempting to provide a little motivation for people to go out and seek that education. As for options themselves, remember that the preponderance of options contracts expire worthless, would you rather be the guy shelling out the cash for the premium or the guy receiving it? There's a reason most brokerage houses don't readily offer the ability to make these types of trades to the general public, and it's not because they're worried about you losing your money. At any rate, most people probably should, and will, stay away from this stuff, but my basic premise is the same: find some professional investment advice and follow it, and don't be afraid to pay a few bucks for it. As for yourself, it sounds like you know what you're talking about, let me know if you want more details.

[Vice]

I'm tired of seeing senior airmen driving around in brand new BMWs and then ending up broke. Financial education is incredibly important but seems to be generally ignored in our society.

I've never seen a SrA that was interested in taking action investing in any manner. One SrA who drove a Mustang told me "why are you watching the stock market channel that's for old people". This was shortly before I made enough in a trade to buy his Mustang several times over. Got really frustrated because I'd buy books and home study programs (one was a stock training program worth $3k) for people that could help them and they NEVER FOLLOWED THROUGH.

Source: I'm a SrA. I talk to a lot of people about investments, so far the only person I've had a decent, educated converstaion with was one of my squadron commanders, which was a weird conversation because he was a Major and I was a SrA. Everyone else was too busy lifting their F-250's, buying Camaros/Mustangs, and making fun of my economic car while I saved money to build a business to run before/after I got off AD. Have fun being $30k millionaires.

Edited July 9, 2014 by Vice

[Mark1]

I've never seen a SrA that was interested in taking action investing in any manner. One SrA who drove a Mustang told me "why are you watching the stock market channel that's for old people". This was shortly before I made enough in a trade to buy his Mustang several times over. Got really frustrated because I'd buy books and home study programs (one was a stock training program worth $3k) for people that could help them and they NEVER FOLLOWED THROUGH.

Although I don't doubt that whatever he was doing with his money was worse than *trading* stock, he was probably better off not reading any of your literature. The only book he should have read (or any of a number of others that advocate the same approach):

https://www.amazon.com/The-Four-Pillars-Investing-Portfolio-ebook/dp/B0041842TW

I find that the world of novice *traders* is full of people who exhibit behavior identical to problem gamblers. They downplay and suppress their losses in conversation and talk up their wins in order to save face with their friends/family/etc...frequently to the extent that they actually come to believe themselves that they're beating the market. Anybody can get lucky with a big score (and probably spend the rest of their lives giving it back due to the delusion that their 'score' was the result of skill), but nobody survives in the long run.

Ask anybody to name a famous investor and you'll get back Warren Buffet and then blank stares from 99% of the population. Out of 7 billion people on the face of the planet, most people can name only one that is successful at 'beating the market' in anything approaching the long term. But they only know his name because he happens to be the outlier at the upper reaches of the bell curve that probability/statistics would predict if picking winners/losers and timing the market was pure chance. He won big, others lost big, and the majority hung around the mean return of the market.

But of course in Buffet's case, he buys controlling interests in companies and then injects his business sense into them which, given that he's a world class businessman, increases the value of the companies earning him a 'guaranteed' return. Anybody else that got rich *trading* in the market either got lucky, hit big, and had the sense to get out (or is just still in the process of losing it back), or was trading other peoples money and siphoning off exorbitant fees in the process.

If you have monies that you can afford to lose and like to gamble with in an attempt to score big, that's great, but to suggest that others should do the same is irresponsible.

Sorry, but it's a pet peeve of mine because there's an entire sham industry that pays it's officers million dollar salaries to provide a useless service to their customers while simultaneously stealing their cash.

[Day Man]

Just finished watching Wolf of Wall Street, eh?

Sure, there's an inherent risk with investing...NO ONE can predict what will happen tomorrow, next week, next month, ad infinitum. However, by investing in companies with solid fundamentals, good leadership, good projected growth, a great service/product, etc, you can mitigate some of that risk. I don't think anyone is advocating putting your nest egg in Herbalife. But owning a small amount of HLF along with a balanced, conservative portfolio is not a terrible thing...diversification is key, and it doesn't just include stocks/bonds.

[Vice]

Just finished watching Wolf of Wall Street, eh?

Sure, there's an inherent risk with investing...NO ONE can predict what will happen tomorrow, next week, next month, ad infinitum. However, by investing in companies with solid fundamentals, good leadership, good projected growth, a great service/product, etc, you can mitigate some of that risk. I don't think anyone is advocating putting your nest egg in Herbalife. But owning a small amount of HLF along with a balanced, conservative portfolio is not a terrible thing...diversification is key, and it doesn't just include stocks/bonds.

I hated WoWS. That movie wasn't about trading, it was about a boiler room under the facade of an investment firm.

When you say diversification I hope you mean diversification in a true sense beyond the investment vehicle of securities.

Sorry, but it's a pet peeve of mine because there's an entire sham industry that pays it's officers million dollar salaries to provide a useless service to their customers while simultaneously stealing their cash.

Not sure if we're on the same page here, but Warren Buffet's approach works only for Warren Buffet. He has the capital to buy in enough influence into a company and make profitable tweaks to operatons. Marcus Lemonis does the same thing except with private businesses.

My money isn't going to any officer to be managed, I manage my own portfolio, so your pet peeve does not apply in this case.

Lastly, reccommending a book and calling the ONLY ONE BOOK/APPROACH that you should read/follow is not very good advice.

[Mark1]

I hated WoWS. That movie wasn't about trading, it was about a boiler room under the facade of an investment firm.

When you say diversification I hope you mean diversification in a true sense beyond the investment vehicle of securities.

Not sure if we're on the same page here, but Warren Buffet's approach works only for Warren Buffet. He has the capital to buy in enough influence into a company and make profitable tweaks to operatons. Marcus Lemonis does the same thing except with private businesses.

My money isn't going to any officer to be managed, I manage my own portfolio, so your pet peeve does not apply in this case.

Lastly, reccommending a book and calling the ONLY ONE BOOK/APPROACH that you should read/follow is not very good advice.

My pet peeve applies because any 'stock training program' that costs $3k is a sham that almost certainly advocates frequent and sophisticated trading techniques. Probably authored by a former wall street 'insider' who saw an opportunity to bilk people out of hard earned cash in a new and novel way (through purchase of the system) that seemed even better than the conventional theft through exorbitant money management fees. If the program does not advocate 'sophisticated' trading techniques (highly unlikely) then it's an even greater scam as the skills necessary to build a portfolio that 99.9% of investors should have could be taught by way of a 50cent pamphlet, 1hr lecture, or $14.99 book.

The book that I referenced doesn't advocate an approach, it just destroys every approach out there leaving only one option, the correct one, as default. And it's not a novel idea put forth by the author, just an unpopular one that won't ever garner headlines because people want to cling to the idea that they can outsmart the market and make millions. This particular book was just written by an author that was able to make digesting the information easy and enjoyable, which is why it's more popular than plenty of other sources on the same subject (typically math heavy technical journals and the like).

The statistical information is out there that proves the impossibility of beating the market in the long run (assuming you're not trading on illegal information), people just don't want to listen. It's also inherent that any trade that offers the possibility of big gains, is also highly risky. In the long run, rate of return on trades of that type will generally approximate the whole market's return, just with larger volatility in the process. In real life, you're exposing yourself to a likelihood that one big volatile downswing will bust you. That risk comes in exchange for the chance to cash out after a timely volatile upswing. That's fine if that's your thing, but again, shouldn't be recommended to others who aren't familiar with what they're getting into.

I think most people would be surprised to see how many 'brilliant' hedge fund managers invest their own money in a collection of ETFs that approximate the total market....all while putting their clients' money into sophisticated monetary instruments that make money for everybody involved except the investors.

[Tank]

I like stability... All of my investments are in mutual funds through USAA and BRK/B (Berkshire Hathaway B) stock.

[Springer]

I like stability... All of my investments are in mutual funds through USAA and BRK/B (Berkshire Hathaway B) stock.

:-(

If you have the stomach for it day trade the airlines, specifically AAL. Stay away from UAL. Long term, DAL.

MU has been a huge money maker for many. Still some life left in it with PT around $40.

[Day Man]

:-(

If you have the stomach for it day trade the airlines, specifically AAL. Stay away from UAL. Long term, DAL.

MU has been a huge money maker for many. Still some life left in it with PT around $40.

What's your specific strategy here?

[ARIs 'R' Us]

:-(

If you have the stomach for it day trade the airlines, specifically AAL. Stay away from UAL. Long term, DAL.

MU has been a huge money maker for many. Still some life left in it with PT around $40.

Malaysian Airlines can be had for really cheap right now...

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[nsplayr]

Malaysian Airlines can be had for really cheap right now...

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You're clearly going to hell but I like your style.

[StoleIt]

Malaysian Airlines can be had for really cheap right now...

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True, but it could also go bankrupt...

[SurelySerious]

True, but it could also go bankrupt...

There's always this.

[Springer]

What's your specific strategy here?

Was day trading up until DAL earnings today. Very positive and even better year end forecast. AAL and other airlines earnings tomorrow expected to duplicate DAL's. Posible new highs for both in the coming weeks.

Edited July 23, 2014 by Springer

[Day Man]

right, but what strategy were you using? Buying shares then selling them at COB? Options?

[Butters]

right, but what strategy were you using? Buying shares then selling them at COB? Options?

His strategy is buy low sell high. It is genius!

[StoleIt]

If anyone wants to get into Apple (AAPL) now isn't a bad time.

Jennifer Lawrence's boobs were great for my morale but the big red down arrow next to my stock value does sting...gotta take the good with the bad I guess.