Grouch Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 Email traffic has been circulating in the RPA community that manning in going to be "healthy" come late 2016. As a result, the wizards at AFPC are estimating that ALFA tour pilots are going to start being released back to their previous manned aircraft, albeit slowly, starting Spring 2017. As a current non-vol stuck in RPAs, I'm hopeful and excited. I was pulled from AMC only after 9 months in my squadron, barely broke over 100 hours flying (boo hoo). I felt robbed, but this opportunity feels like my one chance to get back to what I love. Unfortunately, I don't believe the Air Force is going to follow through with it; I don't think they'll have a choice. After talking to fellow 11X and 18X pilots, I don't think many RPA guys are going to volunteer for more austerity, more work, and more inaction from AF leadership and choose to stay in. The Air Force simply won't have the RPA manning numbers to justify releasing anyone back. This feels like a giant carrot on a stick - something to keep me working hard because "there's still a chance!" I'm not sure how credible a plan like this can be. Curious on everyone's take on this situation. Instead of re-explaining the whole plan I've cut and pasted information from an email I received from a Squadron Commander a few weeks back concerning my aforementioned dilemma. · MQ-1/9 Pilots: o All ops locations projected to hit 100% manning in the Jan-Feb ’17 timeframe o ALFA return (i.e. pilots sent from manned acft to fly MQ-1B/9) should be expected at around 10-15 total from MQ-1/9 § Priority will be competitive and 11R/11B will take priority over MAF assets due to manning levels § Spring and beyond *should see returns of around 30-40 per VML cycle § *dependent on no change to USAF CAP commitments or authorization increases · This is what I need from officers: o I will be sending a separate email to all members on Initial Fall VML; however, please engage me soonest if you wish to volunteer to move to Holloman AFB. o As stated above, AFPC is projecting ALFA tour pilots (i.e. people that used to fly manned acft and were sent to MQ-1B/9s for a tour) to start to be released back to manned acft. This will initially be a very small number and gradually grow if manning projections remain the same and USAF does not increase manning requirements (i.e. more CAPs, increase pilot to CAP ratio, etc). As such, I encourage you to engage me if you wish to re-cat to MQ-9 career field (i.e. officially change your AFSC to reflect that you desire to stay in RPA career field). o Of note, the general focus remains on increasing manpower at Holloman AFB Formal Training Units while also increasing/maintaining healthier manpower levels across RPA community as a whole. Removed some personal / needless information. Interested in hearing what guys who've seen the manning ebb and flow think.
1969RPOL36 Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 I think there are enough qualifying statements in there that make it a 50/50 proposition at best. Just my gut feeling. Big Blue has a way of moving the finish line. I think the big change will be the crew/CAP ratio, as the AF has been using surge numbers to man its squadrons, which has precipitated the continuous burnout in the community. Eventually, quality of life will have to improve, and one tangible way of doing that is to up that ratio so people aren't having to sit in the box for 8 hours, 6 days a week while on mids. Also, I don't think that the AF has a clue how many of the 18X'ers will actually bail at the end of their commitment starting in late 2017 to early 2018. From the rumors I hear, almost all of them are as good as gone. That sets the stage for more pain down the road.
viper154 Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 Reason to be cautiously optimistic. As one of the recent UPT directs it makes me hopeful. I think if you can get out early you have a chance of escaping. As said above, I have heard the AF is expecting something like 40%+ of the initial 18x ers to stay. From my small corner and limited experience, that number is going to be closer to 2-3%. I think this projection is probably based on the assumption people are going to get through the pipeline on time, I can promise you Holloman is turning into more of a shit show everyday. I was lucky and got out almost on time but the majority of folks are graduating a month or two late, and the classes that just showed were told to expect that to increase by several months. Also keep in mind the amount of CAPs were reduced to up pipeline production. Soon as the pencil pushers see green numbers those CAPs are going to go back up. Sounds like it might be worth shot to try and volunteer get a bomber or ISR gig Either way, I wish you luck, hopefully we are all someday back in a real jet.
Jaded Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 Why do you guys continue to believe anything AFPC or RPA leader tells you?
viper154 Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 29 minutes ago, Jaded said: Why do you guys continue to believe anything AFPC or RPA leader tells you? Hope. And maybe some luck. It's the only thing that keeps me from saying F it, just not show up one day and living under the overpass.
HU&W Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 This would probably help manning and give some hope for you. " (a) IN GENERAL.—Not later than September 30, 2019, the Air Force shall fully transition to an organizational model for all Air Force remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) that uses enlisted personnel as operators of such aircraft rather than officers as the preponderance of operators of such aircraft." - NDAA FY17 as passed by SASC on 8 May 16https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/S2943%20-%20Committee-Passed%20NDAA.pdf 1
guineapigfury Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 FWIW, I have 2 friends in RPAs released back to their functionals (135 & 130) for the current VML. I'll standby and notify this board what they get. There may be hope, if only for a lucky few.
Switch408 Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 Just had a guy in my squadron get released back to the C-5. He drives to Dover this Friday.
ned1 Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 This would probably help manning and give some hope for you. " (a) IN GENERAL.—Not later than September 30, 2019, the Air Force shall fully transition to an organizational model for all Air Force remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) that uses enlisted personnel as operators of such aircraft rather than officers as the preponderance of operators of such aircraft." - NDAA FY17 as passed by SASC on 8 May 16 https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/S2943%20-%20Committee-Passed%20NDAA.pdf I say good! But where do all the 18x go? We demand a flying job of some kind! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk
Guest Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 I say good! But where do all the 18x go? We demand a flying job of some kind! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk You again? I thought we put you on timeout. Note the word "preponderance." Officers will still run the squadrons, much as officers supervise WOs on the army rotary-wing side.
Azimuth Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 Friend of mine went to Global Chicken for the past four years, was paroled and is currently in -135 requal back to the MAF. Nothing is unheard of.
HU&W Posted May 21, 2016 Posted May 21, 2016 3 hours ago, ned1 said: I say good! But where do all the 18x go? We demand a flying job of some kind! Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 using Tapatalk For that, you'd have to click the link and read the whole thing. But to help you out, they want officers/SNCO's in "supervisory" RPA roles.
ThreeHoler Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 Friend of mine went to Global Chicken for the past four years, was paroled and is currently in -135 requal back to the MAF. Nothing is unheard of. The Chicken is good about that for the most part. The Pred/Reaper...not so much.
Grouch Posted May 22, 2016 Author Posted May 22, 2016 9 hours ago, Jaded said: Why do you guys continue to believe anything AFPC or RPA leader tells you? It's really my only hope of getting out of this community right now. I don't think it'll happen, but it's the first plan the AF has put forth to get us back to manned flying so I've got to believe it. 10 hours ago, viper154 said: Reason to be cautiously optimistic. As one of the recent UPT directs it makes me hopeful. I think if you can get out early you have a chance of escaping. As said above, I have heard the AF is expecting something like 40%+ of the initial 18x ers to stay. From my small corner and limited experience, that number is going to be closer to 2-3%. I think you're absolutely right. Maybe a few of us can escape before they realize the manning for the community is absolutely f*cked. If this deal doesn't go through, I don't think any of us are going back.
Jaded Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 You realize that you guys are saying, "Their plan is not executable, and they've never followed through on their promises before, but this time it's going to be different!" I've flown with guys that returned from RPAs so I know it's possible, but they are the extreme minority from what I understand. I'm not saying you should be shitbags at work because you hate your jobs, but maybe have a realistic outlook. I wouldn't volunteer for bad deals because they're holding out the latest RPA "return to flying" carrot to you guys. Educate the young guys on the RPA force "management" that has gone on for the last nine years so they can take everything they're told with a grain of salt.
ILoveScotch Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 Reinforcements are on the way. I volunteered 9 months ago, think I'll maybe see orders this fall. Who knows, though. Some of us think what you guys do is pretty badass. I dunno, maybe I'll hate it, but I doubt it. Attitude is everything.
Sim Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 54 minutes ago, ILoveScotch said: Reinforcements are on the way. I volunteered 9 months ago, think I'll maybe see orders this fall. Who knows, though. Some of us think what you guys do is pretty badass. I dunno, maybe I'll hate it, but I doubt it. Attitude is everything. ROFLOL!!! Good luck!....you'll need it.
BashiChuni Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 10 hours ago, Sim said: 11 hours ago, ILoveScotch said: Reinforcements are on the way. I volunteered 9 months ago, think I'll maybe see orders this fall. Who knows, though. Some of us think what you guys do is pretty badass. I dunno, maybe I'll hate it, but I doubt it. Attitude is everything. I can see the WWI replacements saying the same thing as they march to the front! "cheer up boys help is on the way!" 1
ILoveScotch Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 32 minutes ago, BashiChuni said: I can see the WWI replacements saying the same thing as they march to the front! "cheer up boys help is on the way!" Yes, certain death from mustard gas is quite the concern in your air conditioned GCS at home in the USA. Guaranteed $150k/year to fly robots in this economy, boo hoo life is so tough...
guineapigfury Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 6 hours ago, ILoveScotch said: Reinforcements are on the way. I volunteered 9 months ago, think I'll maybe see orders this fall. Who knows, though. Some of us think what you guys do is pretty badass. I dunno, maybe I'll hate it, but I doubt it. Attitude is everything. This is a fairly common attitude amongst brand new 18Xers. 6 months flying the line changes their mind in about 90% of them. Maybe you'll be different, but probably not.
viper154 Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 10 hours ago, Jaded said: You realize that you guys are saying, "Their plan is not executable, and they've never followed through on their promises before, but this time it's going to be different!" I've flown with guys that returned from RPAs so I know it's possible, but they are the extreme minority from what I understand. I'm not saying you should be shitbags at work because you hate your jobs, but maybe have a realistic outlook. I wouldn't volunteer for bad deals because they're holding out the latest RPA "return to flying" carrot to you guys. Educate the young guys on the RPA force "management" that has gone on for the last nine years so they can take everything they're told with a grain of salt. We understand, it's like being lost in the wilderness with two broken legs. We understand we probably will never get out, but the hope that over next hill is a town with the brewery and strip club are what keep us going. Don't kill my brewery and strip club dreams The current ops tempo does a pretty good job at "educating" the young guys. As said above, about 6 months on the line and that cherry "I'm here to help" attitude turns into the salty bitterness. Hence the minimal numbers of guys that are going to stay in 2 years when the commitments start coming up. 2
fox two Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 On 5/21/2016 at 7:58 AM, Grouch said: § *dependent on no change to USAF CAP commitments or authorization increases So, about a year ago we reduced CAPS from 65 to 60 due to manning requirements. Now the manning problem is projected to go away. I wonder what's going to happen... I was shown a powerpoint slide at one point that said something like only 30% of the current demand for ISR taskings are able to be filled? Maybe someone can correct me on the exact number, but I don't think demand is headed south.
Herk Driver Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 How many guys return as contractors? State quals. Otherwise STFU. 6
scoobs Posted May 22, 2016 Posted May 22, 2016 It's a valid question. Do the direct guys get a commercial rating that contractors require?
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